11-03-2022, 06:13 PM
The halfway point of the 2022 NFL season is upon us (or nearly is) and the Bengals sit at 4-4, coming off a devastating loss in Cleveland. However, it isn't the loss itself that has many of us worried, but the injuries. At this point last season, Cincinnati was 5-3 and coming off a loss to the Mike White led Jets. Many fans have been pointing to the mid-season struggles last year in an effort to draw a parallel to this season. It's a fair point, but the situations are notably different. Ja'Marr is just beginning what could be an extended absence, Awuzie is done for the season, Reader isn't expected back until after the bye and Joe Mixon is a shell of his former self. Even still, there is plenty of football left and Cincinnati can still find a way to make some noise over the last nine games.
Team Efficiency
![[Image: uB8BXv7.png]](https://i.imgur.com/uB8BXv7.png)
While Cincinnati is still doing well and competing with several tough teams in terms of offensive/defensive efficiency, they are admittedly trending downwards. This shouldn't be a surprise to anyone after a week in Cleveland where we saw the offense unable to get anything going and the defense finally relented after starting off well, allowing Cleveland to score 32 points. In week nine, Cincinnati sees an abysmal Panthers offense but will face a respectable defense.
QB Efficiency
![[Image: 8O5IRtW.png]](https://i.imgur.com/8O5IRtW.png)
A shaky start left several of us worried about Burrow's abilities, but he has skyrocketed back into the upper echelon of NFL QBs since that week one nightmare. As a matter of fact, Burrow has been a top five QB since week three, but his first game without Ja'Marr Chase this season didn't go quite as well as we had hoped. Burrow posted the 5th lowest EPA per play out of all QB's in week eight.
RB Efficiency
![[Image: 6a9VU3F.png]](https://i.imgur.com/6a9VU3F.png)
There isn't much positive to say here as Joe Mixon remains in the argument of "Worst starting RB in the NFL". As many have seen posted elsewhere, Mixon has one of the lowest elusive ratings in the entire NFL, and his yards after contact (2.05) is just barely above Joe Burrow's (1.97). After managing only 3.3 yards per carry against the Cleveland Browns, Mixon and company will face a Panthers defense that is allowing only 4.2 yards per carry, good for 12th in the league.
Offensive Line Scores
![[Image: 7bPzoNh.png]](https://i.imgur.com/7bPzoNh.png)
![[Image: WxIiiE7.png]](https://i.imgur.com/WxIiiE7.png)
This has been a tricky one. I agree with the placement of some of these teams, but not others. There are factors that I am missing here, but this is the most comprehensive score I have come up with so far. This score is made up of Time To Throw, Pressure Percentage (pressures only), yards before contact, sack percentage, and penalty percentage. The pressure percentage and sack percentage are calculated via PFF's metrics where they assign sacks to a player, so these values remove sacks from anyone not a lineman. This means that QB owned sacks are not included, along with TE/RB sacks. Also, when I calculate the pass blocking grade, I am weighting towards sacks due to how impactful they are in comparison to pressures. Time To Throw is used as a small modifier, so if a QB is holding the ball longer than average but the pass blocking metrics are still low, it provides a small boost to the score. The inverse is also true. My goal here was to try to isolate OL performance as much as possible. Finally, penalty percentage is also used as a small modifier.
The biggest disagreement I have is the Eagles at #12. If you would have asked me who the best offensive line was yesterday, I would have mentioned the Eagles. I think many others would, too. That doesn't mean that this is the correct answer, but it is certainly a reasonable one. They aren't really the best at anything, though. This score is weighted towards pass blocking, and they are roughly a top 10 unit here, but not in the elite status. They are 19th in yards before contact. They are slightly worse than league average in penalties. Anyways, I am rambling because I find this to be the most interesting metric.
I personally have no issue with Cincinnati's placement, and I don't think many will. They have really struggled to open holes in the running game and Burrow is still under pressure and getting sacked often. Not as often - they have improved - but still often.
Record Projection
Via Pythagorean projection, Cincinnati is projected to win 9.7 games. This is down from the predicted 11, but only slightly so, depending on if you round up or down. With a couple of major injuries on the table, the trendline could potentially shift dramatically for Cincinnati in the coming weeks.
Team Efficiency
While Cincinnati is still doing well and competing with several tough teams in terms of offensive/defensive efficiency, they are admittedly trending downwards. This shouldn't be a surprise to anyone after a week in Cleveland where we saw the offense unable to get anything going and the defense finally relented after starting off well, allowing Cleveland to score 32 points. In week nine, Cincinnati sees an abysmal Panthers offense but will face a respectable defense.
QB Efficiency
A shaky start left several of us worried about Burrow's abilities, but he has skyrocketed back into the upper echelon of NFL QBs since that week one nightmare. As a matter of fact, Burrow has been a top five QB since week three, but his first game without Ja'Marr Chase this season didn't go quite as well as we had hoped. Burrow posted the 5th lowest EPA per play out of all QB's in week eight.
RB Efficiency
There isn't much positive to say here as Joe Mixon remains in the argument of "Worst starting RB in the NFL". As many have seen posted elsewhere, Mixon has one of the lowest elusive ratings in the entire NFL, and his yards after contact (2.05) is just barely above Joe Burrow's (1.97). After managing only 3.3 yards per carry against the Cleveland Browns, Mixon and company will face a Panthers defense that is allowing only 4.2 yards per carry, good for 12th in the league.
Offensive Line Scores
This has been a tricky one. I agree with the placement of some of these teams, but not others. There are factors that I am missing here, but this is the most comprehensive score I have come up with so far. This score is made up of Time To Throw, Pressure Percentage (pressures only), yards before contact, sack percentage, and penalty percentage. The pressure percentage and sack percentage are calculated via PFF's metrics where they assign sacks to a player, so these values remove sacks from anyone not a lineman. This means that QB owned sacks are not included, along with TE/RB sacks. Also, when I calculate the pass blocking grade, I am weighting towards sacks due to how impactful they are in comparison to pressures. Time To Throw is used as a small modifier, so if a QB is holding the ball longer than average but the pass blocking metrics are still low, it provides a small boost to the score. The inverse is also true. My goal here was to try to isolate OL performance as much as possible. Finally, penalty percentage is also used as a small modifier.
The biggest disagreement I have is the Eagles at #12. If you would have asked me who the best offensive line was yesterday, I would have mentioned the Eagles. I think many others would, too. That doesn't mean that this is the correct answer, but it is certainly a reasonable one. They aren't really the best at anything, though. This score is weighted towards pass blocking, and they are roughly a top 10 unit here, but not in the elite status. They are 19th in yards before contact. They are slightly worse than league average in penalties. Anyways, I am rambling because I find this to be the most interesting metric.
I personally have no issue with Cincinnati's placement, and I don't think many will. They have really struggled to open holes in the running game and Burrow is still under pressure and getting sacked often. Not as often - they have improved - but still often.
Record Projection
Via Pythagorean projection, Cincinnati is projected to win 9.7 games. This is down from the predicted 11, but only slightly so, depending on if you round up or down. With a couple of major injuries on the table, the trendline could potentially shift dramatically for Cincinnati in the coming weeks.
