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I think Hurst ultimately stays around at least one more year on a reasonable deal. He loves it here, that is clear. He’s playing his best football but it’s only one season and other teams will be reluctant to break the bank for him just yet. He also knows in the wrong system he won’t be good and won’t be happy. I’d try to offer him a 3 year $18 mil deal. I’d keep him for $5-6 mil/yr for as long as I can get him to sign. Probably will end up being a one year deal for $5 mil when it’s all said and done if I had to guess. If he wants more than that I’m afraid I’d let him walk. Although I may be willing to go to $8 mil for one year only depending on how the rest of FA plays out to keep the band together one last year.
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https://sportsnaut.com/nfl-salary-cap-projections/
This is just a quick article I found that shows the increases in salary cap projections. This softens some of the sticker shock the Bengals could face.
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FWIW, here is next year by position group:
Offense:
Starter FAs: Hurst
Key reserve FAs: Perine
Multiple FAs: RB, WR, TE
QB:
Signed: Burrow
FA: Allen
RB:
Signed: Mixon, Evans
FA: Perine, Williams
WR:
Signed: Chase, Higgins, Boyd, Morgan
FA: Taylor, Irwin
TE:
Signed: Asiasi
FA: Hurst, Sample, Wilcox
OT:
Signed: Williams, Collins, Adeniji, Smith
FA: None
IOL:
Signed: Cappa, Volson, Karras, Carman, Hill, Brown
FA: Scharping
---------------------------------
Defense:
Starter FAs: Pratt, Apple, Bell, Bates
Key Reserve FAs: Flowers
Multiple FAs: LB, CB, S
DE:
Signed: Hendrickson, Hubbard, Ossai, Sample, Gunter
FA: None
DT/NT:
Signed: Reader, Hill, Tupou, Carter, Tufele
FA: None
LB:
Signed: Wilson, ADG, Bailey
FA: Pratt, Johnston, Bachie
CB:
Signed: Awuzie, Hilton, CTB
FA: Apple, Flowers, Davis
S:
Signed: Hill, Andersen
FA: Bell, Bates, Thomas, B. Wilson
--------------------------
Specials:
Signed: McPherson
FA: Chrisman, Adomitis, Huber
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What our FAs currently make:
Offense:
Allen: $1.2 mil; No reason for a raise, upgrade possible
Perine: $1.85 mil; Raise deserved (Bernard territory?)
T. Williams: $965k; steady
Taylor: $1.135; steady
Irwin: $320k; Full year contract will be a raise
Hurst: $3.48 mil; Raise deserved
D. Sample: $1.75 mil; savings opportunity here
Wilcox: $825k, steady
Scharping: $2.54 mil: steady, savings opportunity
Defense:
Pratt: $2.8 mil; Raise deserved, pay or let ADG take over?
Johnston: $825k, steady
Bachie: $420k; steady, full year contract is a slight raise
Apple: $3.75 mil; steady, slight raise; we could do a lot worse for a 4th CB
Flowers: $1.8 mil; steady;
Davis: $1.035 mil; steady
Bell: $7.49 mil; slight raise
Bates: $12.9 mil; overpaid; another tag year or release if Hill is ready
Thomas: $1.12 mil; steady;
B. Wilson: $2.56 mil; steady; savings if Andersen can play Evans/TWil on kicks
Specials:
Huber: $1.27 mil; cut has to be incoming
Chrisman: PS; signing has to ne incoming
Adomitis: $665k; slight raise
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(12-01-2022, 11:09 AM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: FWIW, here is next year by position group:
Offense:
Starter FAs: Hurst
Key reserve FAs: Perine
Multiple FAs: RB, WR, TE
QB:
Signed: Burrow
FA: Allen
RB:
Signed: Mixon, Evans
FA: Perine, Williams
WR:
Signed: Chase, Higgins, Boyd, Morgan
FA: Taylor, Irwin
TE:
Signed: Asiasi
FA: Hurst, Sample, Wilcox
OT:
Signed: Williams, Collins, Adeniji, Smith
FA: None
IOL:
Signed: Cappa, Volson, Karras, Carman, Hill, Brown
FA: Scharping
---------------------------------
Defense:
Starter FAs: Pratt, Apple, Bell, Bates
Key Reserve FAs: Flowers
Multiple FAs: LB, CB, S
DE:
Signed: Hendrickson, Hubbard, Ossai, Sample, Gunter
FA: None
DT/NT:
Signed: Reader, Hill, Tupou, Carter, Tufele
FA: None
LB:
Signed: Wilson, ADG, Bailey
FA: Pratt, Johnston, Bachie
CB:
Signed: Awuzie, Hilton, CTB
FA: Apple, Flowers, Davis
S:
Signed: Hill, Andersen
FA: Bell, Bates, Thomas, B. Wilson
--------------------------
Specials:
Signed: McPherson
FA: Chrisman, Adomitis, Huber
Well it's a good thing that nobody on the offensive and defensive lines are FA's except Scharping. Plus the Bengals should be able to do what they want for another season before the fat really has to be trimmed drastically.
Yet they will have to prepare and if only offering 1 or 2 year deals they will lose players looking for security in longer contracts to other teams.
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(12-01-2022, 02:24 AM)BFritz21 Wrote: 100%.
Just need to hope the salary cap goes up an insane amount so we have money for everyone.
I wish Higgins would stay for a bit cheaper and just look at the bigger picture and see that he'll have a longer and better career with Burrow but I'm sure that his agent is convincing him that he doesn't need Burrow to be successful. He might not need Burrow to be good, but he'll have a better and longer career here with more security.
The cap should go up significantly. The Direct TV NFL ticket is up for bids. I predict a huge increase for company that gets the right to the future ticket.
2024 may go on record as one of most underperforming teams in Bengal history. Bengal's FO has major work to do on defensive side of the ball. I say tag and trade Tee Higgins in 2025 to start with the rebuild.
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(12-01-2022, 12:59 AM)Housh Wrote: Would CJs production with the Jets and Hursts revival sway your desire to try and sign Hurst next offseason?
Could the Bengals system just make TEs look good and any TE you out there will produce? If you think that then you would be hesitant to cash out Hayden Hurst.
Absolutely, he seems to bring a positive energy to the team and Burrow appears to have developed some chemistry and confidence in him. Of course the Bengals can't really afford to pay him a lot, but I'd offer him a modest raise in the form of a 2-3 year deal.
Volson is meh, but I like him, and he has far exceeded my expectations
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(12-01-2022, 01:58 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Absolutely, he seems to bring a positive energy to the team and Burrow appears to have developed some chemistry and confidence in him. Of course the Bengals can't really afford to pay him a lot, but I'd offer him a modest raise in the form of a 2-3 year deal.
Agree
If he's willing to stay for a medium level salary for a couple seasons sign him.
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(12-01-2022, 02:08 AM)Go Cards Wrote: Think it will be Higgins who they will not able to afford to pay unfortunately.
Or Mixon
I keep this dream going in my head where they dump Mixon and are able to keep Chase, Higgins, and Boyd.
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(12-01-2022, 02:05 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Or Mixon
I keep this dream going in my head where they dump Mixon and are able to keep Chase, Higgins, and Boyd.
I think next year will be Boyd's last year in Cincy and this year may be Mixon's last year!
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(12-01-2022, 12:59 AM)Housh Wrote: Would CJs production with the Jets and Hursts revival sway your desire to try and sign Hurst next offseason?
Could the Bengals system just make TEs look good and any TE you out there will produce? If you think that then you would be hesitant to cash out Hayden Hurst.
Hayden is just a great fit and no the Bengals system will not just make any TE look good. He is good all by himself but
especially as a Bengal and he will be the first to tell you he wants to stay here. Give him a 2 year extension. It won't
break the bank, I bet he even takes a lesser deal to stay here and win rings while resurrecting his career and proving
why he was a 1st round pick.
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(12-01-2022, 09:47 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: Hurst has been incredibly reliable, and I love his energy. If he can be signed next season for a reasonable contract, I am all over it.
I be Ok with 2 yr 6 to maybe 7 million and draft TE
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I think this year is fairly easy in terms of FA. The cap will increase by $18-20 million. There are some moves we can make around the fringes to save some money (B. Wilson, Scharping, D. Sample). And almost all our FAs who play lot are not big ticket guys (Bell, Pratt, Apple, Hurst, Perine).
The only really big ticket guy is Bates. We can tag him again if we want to keep him, and that won't represent much of a increase in terms of the cap. He already is making $12+ mil. If we think Hill is ready to take over, then we can really save some cash.
Hurst, Bell, and Pratt are good players and productive starters. None should break the bank. I hope all 3 are back. Apple takes a lot of flack, but we could do a lot worse. Chido is coming off injury.....
Until the extensions for Burrow, Chase, & Higgins hit, we are relatively OK. The window is now. I doubt we let good players go until we absolutely have to. Or until we are confident we have someone who can come close to replicating their production in hand.
I would suspect we try and do what did at safety/corner this year, try to draft guys the year before the FA issue hits. For Burrow & Chase, this is not a factor, we are paying them whatever they want. Higgins is questionable. Boyd more so. I'd re-up Reader & Hendrickson, but they are already on big contracts. Wilson gets a raise. I doubt Mixon gets another big contract and I would not go beyond another Tag year on Bates.
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(12-01-2022, 03:34 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: I be Ok with 2 yr 6 to maybe 7 million and draft TE
We should draft a TE even if we keep Hurst. Sample & Wilcox are both FAs. Asiasi has not shown much. We need better depth there.
The draft will be interesting. We are likely drafting late teens at best, more likely mid to late 20s. Or even 30s. The positions you usually focus on (QB, WR, OT, EDGE, CB), we already have established guys signed or recent picks. And the franchise guys are usually long gone by then (though WRs can be had late first/early 2nd: Jefferson, Higgins, etc).
The next position groups I'd rate as most important are DT and S. We have 5 guys signed at DT and just drafted 2 safeties last year. If Bell stays, I cannot see us taking another one in Rd1.
If Pratt gets away I could see LB. No way Mayer is there when we oick, so no TE.
I think we are most likely in BPA land, with a focus on EDGE & CBs. Maybe OT. Gonna have to be a stud IOL, DT, S, RB, or TE for us to burn a first on you. WR makes no sense unless a stud drops in our lap.
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(12-01-2022, 12:59 AM)Housh Wrote: Would CJs production with the Jets and Hursts revival sway your desire to try and sign Hurst next offseason?
Could the Bengals system just make TEs look good and any TE you out there will produce? If you think that then you would be hesitant to cash out Hayden Hurst.
"Making TEs look good" is probably a subjective statement, as Hurst isn't even Top 10 in receiving yards, as he has one of the lowest YPC out of all the starting TEs in the league.
Just like last year, Uzomah was also not among the Top 10.
The routes that are being ran for TEs sure isn't helping the YPC.
I think any starting TE will be able to average ~400-600 yards in this offense, so I don't think Hurst is any kind of special player that needs a big contract.
If he's willing to take a more pedestrian contract ($7 mill or less APY), I'd be happy for his return though.
Zac Taylor 2019-2020: 6 total wins
Zac Taylor 2021-2022: Double-digit wins each season, plus 5 postseason wins
Zac Taylor 2023: 9 wins despite losing Burrow half the season
Zac Taylor 2024: Started 1-4. If he can turn this into a playoff appearance, it will be impressive.
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Some of it is probably harder to quantify. If he is making short catches at important moments, that is the sort of clutch player you want.
It reminds me a bit of how Marvin Jones was frequently converting 3rd downs for us back in the Dalton era. It didn't show up as a ton of yards but he was a game changer nonetheless.
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If we can keep winning. Our guys should be having a good time. So hopefully we get some hometown discounts. I get it, it's a business. But people also say money can't buy happiness.
Hurst would be a nice piece to have along with Burrow, Chase, and Tee long term and I hope we have Boyd stick around with all the winning for a reasonable price. Hurst could really make a name for himself but we can't give him top money, I'd offer a contract with performance and win escalators that could double his cap hit from this year which looks like it was 3.5mil. He is already 29 so he should probably sign a multi year contract and get some guaranteed money and help us continue winning. It all depends what someone is willing to pay though, and NFL owners and GMs have been known to hand out crazy dumb deals
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This is all the result of really sucking for a few years. It allowed them to draft really high and get Burrow, Chase and Tee.. The organization was always a spendthrift team so when they hit pay-dirt with Burrow and Chase it opened up the purse strings for free agency after years of barely dabbling in free agency.
It wasn't very long ago then almost all of the top AFC teams were cellar dwellers.
I'm not going to speculate what I would do if I were in charge and had a few billion dollars to play with. The best I could do is play with about $10000 and that's all staying in the bank for my old age.
In the immortal words of my old man, "Wait'll you get to be my age!"
Chicago sounds rough to the maker of verse, but the one comfort we have is Cincinnati sounds worse. ~Oliver Wendal Holmes Sr.
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(12-01-2022, 09:23 AM)Sled21 Wrote: Re-signing Hurst is a no brainer. While other TE"s may have more yardage due to the systems they play in, show me one that makes better catches and puts in more effort after the catch. To me, he's a man who is finally flourishing and is happy to be here. I don't expect him to try to break the bank, I expect him to tell his agent to do everything he can to get him re-signed here.
this is how I see it too on reading about the guy. I dont think its all about the $$$ for him.
I pray we can keep him around ofr while. Love is attitude, athletic ability and it frees us up to not draft a TE too high next yr....although the ND TE Meyer looks like NFL ready beast.
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