I was wrong about Hayden Hurst - I'll take my crow medium rare, plz

[kalibengal]

I loved the signing from day 1....you gotta give Baltimore credit..they know how to draft TE talent. I dont know what happendd in Balt for them to let him go but Im glad they did and he eventually landed here.
And now this Likely kid is looking like a problem for AFC N for a long time . Im hoping we can get a good mid round TE that can also fill a need. I like Wilcox but not sure on him just yet. I see Sample as OUT of the picture

[*ochocincos*]

(01-09-2023, 12:28 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: People who are saying hurst isn’t really an upgrade over CJ are flat out wrong.

Like I said before, the entire offense in 2021 was based off big plays.

Opposing defenses in 2022 play the bengals to prevent the big play. Jamarr and the entire offense in general have had less explosive plays.

And that is fine. The big plays still show up, but this offense is a better and more sustainable

Hurst has been way more consistent than CJ this year.

You have to look at the whole offense before you criticize Hurst for not putting up way better per game numbers than CJ last year. Also, just use your eyes. Hurst is head and shoulders more talented than Uzomah. The way he breaks tackles and gains extra yards is something cj wasn’t nearly as good at.

Maybe it's because I'm really only getting to watch the games from the local bar & grille and the TV the game is on is typically further away than where I sit by my tv at home, but I have not noticed Hurst being "head and shoulders" better than Uzomah.
He's a solid, well-rounded TE who fits well into this offense but is not going to be a top-end TE in the league.

I mean heck, he's on his 3rd team now and has never been in the Top 10 in receiving yards among TEs.
His best statistical year was when he was 14th in receiving yards among TEs, which was a year Matt Ryan threw for 4581 yards in 16 games.

Being in that 400-600 yard range is typically in the 11-20 ranking among TEs by year's end.
I feel Hurst is safely in that window.

[Essex Johnson]

(01-09-2023, 01:16 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Maybe it's because I'm really only getting to watch the games from the local bar & grille and the TV the game is on is typically further away than where I sit by my tv at home, but I have not noticed Hurst being "head and shoulders" better than Uzomah.
He's a solid, well-rounded TE who fits well into this offense but is not going to be a top-end TE in the league.

I mean heck, he's on his 3rd team now and has never been in the Top 10 in receiving yards among TEs.
His best statistical year was when he was 14th in receiving yards among TEs, which was a year Matt Ryan threw for 4581 yards in 16 games.

Being in that 400-600 yard range is typically in the 11-20 ranking among TEs by year's end.
I feel Hurst is safely in that window.

better yes in catches and yards especially if you take in account missed games. but he had more targets and lower ypc and tds.. He was an improvement over CJ agree but head and shoulders no. I would offer him a contract but nothing over the 3 million range but maybe with some incentives like this year

[Frank Booth]

(01-09-2023, 01:16 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Maybe it's because I'm really only getting to watch the games from the local bar & grille and the TV the game is on is typically further away than where I sit by my tv at home, but I have not noticed Hurst being "head and shoulders" better than Uzomah.
He's a solid, well-rounded TE who fits well into this offense but is not going to be a top-end TE in the league.

I mean heck, he's on his 3rd team now and has never been in the Top 10 in receiving yards among TEs.
His best statistical year was when he was 14th in receiving yards among TEs, which was a year Matt Ryan threw for 4581 yards in 16 games.

Being in that 400-600 yard range is typically in the 11-20 ranking among TEs by year's end.
I feel Hurst is safely in that window.

I’m not calling Hurst elite, but the catches he makes are just spectacular. Remember the pittsburgh tip toe catch? Did you see that catch he made against kc before he left with a calf injury? That’s crazy stuff

And bringing up his past seasons is dishonest. He had to play next to Andrews and Pitts. Of course he isn’t better than those guys. But it turns out, Uzomah isn’t even better than Tyler Conklin.

Just look at tight end receptions for this season, and notice that everyone around Hurst in the 50-59 range has played more games than Hurst this year

And thanks for admitting you watch at a bar. Maybe when you re-watch these games at home, you’ll see the real difference

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(01-09-2023, 12:57 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: You have to look at the offense as a whole, like I said. The 2022 offense is about sustaining drives. The offense last year was about the big play. Of course Uzomah had bigger plays. He would also disappear for most of the year

Hurst played in 3 Less games than cj, and also left the chiefs game early, and still had more receptions than Uzomah did. He was more reliable and consistent than Uzomah.

Tight ends aren’t supposed to be these big yards per reception guys. They’re there to make 7-8 yard catches and move the chains. Hurst has been more reliable on a game to game basis.

No, tight ends are not supposed to be 7-8 yard per reception guys. That's running backs.....

-There were 44 TEs who caught at least 20 passes in 2022. Hayden Hurst's 8.0 ypc is 42nd among them. The only two guys worse than him are backups.
-There were 132 qualified (1.875 catches per game their team has played) pass catchers in the NFL in 2022. Hayden Hurst's 8.0 ypc is 115th among them. Everyone ranked worse than him is a Running Back. There are 7 running backs ranked higher than him.

[SmoothD]

(01-09-2023, 12:50 PM)lacesout87 Wrote: My assumption is they meant 3yr 10-12m total, not per year. 10-12m per year would be asinine.

(01-09-2023, 12:51 PM)Truck_1_0_1_ Wrote: I'm 95% sure he meant 3-4 mil AAV...

Both of you are correct

[Frank Booth]

(01-09-2023, 01:26 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: No, tight ends are not supposed to be 7-8 yard per reception guys. That's running backs.....

-There were 44 TEs who caught at least 20 passes in 2022. Hayden Hurst's 8.0 ypc is 42nd among them. The only two guys worse than him are backups.
-There were 132 qualified (1.875 catches per game their team has played) pass catchers in the NFL in 2022. Hayden Hurst's 8.0 ypc is 115th among them. Everyone ranked worse than him is a Running Back. There are 7 running backs ranked higher than him.

Tyler Higbee and Zach Ertz are considered top 10 tight ends, they averaged 8.6 yards per reception

It’s really not a big deal for a tight end to average 8 yards per reception

As we all know, the offense in 2022 wasn’t predicted off of the big play like 2021 was. It was all about moving the chains and sustaining drives

[*Synric*]

Hayden Hurst was a solid contributor and after a shakey start in an ugly disconnected offensive scheme Hurst really fit into the spread the Bengals have been running. It really started to look like Joe Burrow and Hurst were developing a great connection right before he was hurt. I know the stats for CJ and Hurst were "similar" but he just seems to fit better in the offense. No disrespect to CJ who was an amazing person and a solid TE.



Now I am all for rebuilding the TE room because it is getting stale... not to mention I will always vote to continue to give Joe Burrow weapons.

[Au165]

Here is the thing, the TE market is completely out of whack relative to it's production. Using the top 20 TE's I ran some numbers that essentially show the average production based on their average salary. Those break down to...

$283,000 per reception
$25,000 per yard
$4,000,000 per TD

In comparison someone like Tyler Boyd who is the 32nd highest paid WR currently looks like this...

$185,000 per reception
$14,000 per yard
$2,150,000 per td

Hurst or Uzomah don't really matter, the reality is most TE's aren't as productive as a mid tier WR and tend to cost about 40% more based on production. Unless you are holding Kelce or Mark Andrews there really is very little reason to spend big money on a TE. Blocking can be looked at as well but it's not like WR's aren't blocking outside too so I am not sure it would massively sway the idea here. Most the top pass catching TE's are relatively interchangeable as blockers as is, which is why most teams have a second TE for that purpose.

We should be looking to either pick up another cheap guy off the street or look to the draft as it's easy to see that the value is simply not there for the TE position in the current market setting.

[SmoothD]

(01-09-2023, 01:10 PM)kalibengal Wrote: I loved the signing from day 1....you gotta give Baltimore credit..they know how to draft TE talent. I dont know what happendd in Balt for them to let him go but Im glad they did and he eventually landed here.
And now this Likely kid is looking like a problem for AFC N for a long time . Im hoping we can get a good mid round TE that can also fill a need. I like Wilcox but not sure on him just yet. I see Sample as OUT of the picture

Isaiah Likely.
Dude is a player and has great size and can move.
Fun fact; He went to Coastal Carolina. Same school as Jerome Simspon

[*ochocincos*]

(01-09-2023, 01:26 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: I’m not calling Hurst elite, but the catches he makes are just spectacular. Remember the pittsburgh tip toe catch? Did you see that catch he made against kc before he left with a calf injury? That’s crazy stuff

And bringing up his past seasons is dishonest. He had to play next to Andrews and Pitts. Of course he isn’t better than those guys. But it turns out, Uzomah isn’t even better than Tyler Conklin.

Just look at tight end receptions for this season, and notice that everyone around Hurst in the 50-59 range  has played more games than Hurst this year

And thanks for admitting you watch at a bar. Maybe when you re-watch these games at home, you’ll see the real difference

I don't typically remember most catches, but that's just me.
Very few plays I ever remember after a game is over.
Might also be that I missed it, as I don't typically stay for an entire game when I'm at the bar & grille, just about a half or so.

Also, I'm not going to ever spend time rewatching games. That's not interesting to me.
I'll watch (part of) games when they are live and then do other things until the next game.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(01-09-2023, 01:31 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: Tyler Higbee and Zach Ertz are considered top 10 tight ends, they averaged 8.6 yards per reception

It’s really not a big deal for a tight end to average 8 yards per reception

As we all know, the offense in 2022 wasn’t predicted off of the big play like 2021 was. It was all about moving the chains and sustaining drives

You mean the guys on two teams with TERRIBLE quarterbacking this year? You want to compare guys having an uncharacteristic year with John Wolford and Colt McCoy to a guy who gets to catch passes from Joe Burrow?

In 2021 Higbee averaged 9.2 yards per reception and Zach Ertz averaged 10.3 yards per reception.

Hurst just continued to decline for the 4th straight year, aka every single year of his NFL career. This isn't a one-time thing due to circumstances. And again, you can keep saying moving the chains and sustaining drives but Hurst caught less of his targets and converted less of those catches into first downs. That's just statistical fact.

[*ochocincos*]

(01-09-2023, 01:32 PM)Synric Wrote: Hayden Hurst was a solid contributor and after a shakey start in an ugly disconnected offensive scheme Hurst really fit into the spread the Bengals have been running. It really started to look like Joe Burrow and Hurst were developing a great connection right before he was hurt. I know the stats for CJ and Hurst were "similar" but he just seems to fit better in the offense. No disrespect to CJ who was an amazing person and a solid TE.



Now I am all for rebuilding the TE room because it is getting stale... not to mention I will always vote to continue to give Joe Burrow weapons.

I believe all 3 of Hurst, Sample, and Wilcox are FAs this coming offseason, right?
Even if the Bengals re-sign Hurst, I would definitely spend no less than a mid-round pick on a TE to come in and be TE2.
I'd spend a 1st or 2nd rounder on a TE to be TE1 if Hurst isn't re-signed.

[Frank Booth]

(01-09-2023, 01:42 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: You mean the guys on two teams with TERRIBLE quarterbacking this year? You want to compare guys having an uncharacteristic year with John Wolford and Colt McCoy to a guy who gets to catch passes from Joe Burrow?

In 2021 Higbee averaged 9.2 yards per reception and Zach Ertz averaged 10.3 yards per reception.

Hurst just continued to decline for the 4th straight year, aka every single year of his NFL career. This isn't a one-time thing due to circumstances. And again, you can keep saying moving the chains and sustaining drives but Hurst caught less of his targets and converted less of those catches into first downs. That's just statistical fact.

Playing with 2020 Matt Ryan isn’t a great situation either. And other than 2020 and 2022, he was a back up to 2 elite tight ends

It’s a shame he got injured, because he really looked good against KC and he really could’ve destroyed your narrative. It’s sad when people just look at the numbers and not the talent and context.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(01-09-2023, 01:10 PM)kalibengal Wrote: I loved the signing from day 1....you gotta give Baltimore credit..they know how to draft TE talent. I dont know what happendd in Balt for them to let him go but Im glad they did and he eventually landed here.
And now this Likely kid is looking like a problem for AFC N for a long time . Im hoping we can get a good mid round TE that can also fill a need. I like Wilcox but not sure on him just yet. I see Sample as OUT of the picture

Mark Andrews was a 3rd round pick the same year Hurst was a 1st round pick and consistently outplayed him (which pushed Hurst to 3rd on the TE depth chart) while also being cheaper and 2 years younger.

They got a 2nd round pick in return for trading him, that they used to get JK Dobbins.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(01-09-2023, 01:46 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: Playing with 2020 Matt Ryan isn’t a great situation either. And other than 2020 and 2022, he was a back up to 2 elite tight ends

It’s a shame he got injured, because he really looked good against KC and he really could’ve destroyed your narrative. It’s sad when people just look at the numbers and not the talent and context.

He's been on 3 teams and had 4 years to destroy "my narrative". He hasn't.

12.5
11.6
10.2
8.5
8.0

Worse every year, man. He was 25 when he came into the league and as a skill player that's late. He was probably maxed out already and now he's going to turn 30 this year and it doesn't look great for his future NFL career. Mixon has been in the NFL a year longer than Hurst and he's still 3 years younger to give context.

Uzomah never had a season below 9.0 yards, Eifert retired his first year he dropped below 10.0 yards, the only year Gresham dropped below 9 yards was the year he played with herniated discs that needed surgery. It's not something exclusive to the 2021 Bengals deep balls.

[casear2727]

(01-09-2023, 02:07 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: He's been on 3 teams and had 4 years to destroy "my narrative". He hasn't.

12.5
11.6
10.2
8.5
8.0

Worse every year, man. He was 25 when he came into the league and as a skill player that's late. He was probably maxed out already and now he's going to turn 30 this year and it doesn't look great for his future NFL career. Mixon has been in the NFL a year longer than Hurst and he's still 3 years younger to give context.

Uzomah never had a season below 9.0 yards, Eifert retired his first year he dropped below 10.0 yards, the only year Gresham dropped below 9 yards was the year he played with herniated discs that needed surgery. It's not something exclusive to the 2021 Bengals deep balls.

It doesn't take a genius to see that Hurst is a waaay better pass catching TE than Uzmoah.  His catch radius and athleticism, not to mention the difference in contract dollars.  Ask the Jets who they would prefer now...  This is one of the more stupid debates to continue discuss on this site.

[casear2727]

(01-09-2023, 01:47 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Mark Andrews was a 3rd round pick the same year Hurst was a 1st round pick and consistently outplayed him (which pushed Hurst to 3rd on the TE depth chart) while also being cheaper and 2 years younger.

They got a 2nd round pick in return for trading him, that they used to get JK Dobbins.

"Consistently outplayed" without mentioning Hurst began their rookie season with a broken foot that needed surgery.  Ravens definitely realized what they had in Andrews during that time.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(01-09-2023, 03:38 PM)casear2727 Wrote: It doesn't take a genius to see that Hurst is a waaay better pass catching TE than Uzmoah.  His catch radius and athleticism, not to mention the difference in contract dollars.  Ask the Jets who they would prefer now...  This is one of the more stupid debates to continue discuss on this site.

Tell me you didn't read the thread without telling me you didn't read the thread.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(01-09-2023, 03:40 PM)casear2727 Wrote: "Consistently outplayed" without mentioning Hurst began their rookie season with a broken foot that needed surgery.  Ravens definitely realized what they had in Andrews during that time.

One of the best abilities is availability. He had the whole next year to step up with a QB who doesn't throw to WRs and didn't.