Eisen picking Cincy over KC again

[FRANCH15E]

(12-03-2022, 01:39 AM)JaggedJimmyJay Wrote: The whole “nobody beats X three times in a row” thing is pure gambler’s fallacy.

Is it? I mean Mahomes has never even lost 3 in a row at the pro level. Patrick has been waiting a while for this game, he won’t be denied. Be prepared to watch lots of Mahomes magic on Sunday!

[Goalpost]

(12-03-2022, 12:19 PM)FRANCH15E Wrote: Is it? I mean Mahomes has never even lost 3 in a row at the pro level. Patrick has been waiting a while for this game, he won’t be denied. Be prepared to watch lots of Mahomes magic on Sunday!

Burrow has magic also.  And honestly, give or take the injury issues, the Bengals are in a good spot mentally for this one.  

[Bengalbug]

Phill simms agreed this morning saying Burrows magic will be on full display.

[M.W.]

(12-02-2022, 10:10 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: It's not crazy to pick us, IMHO

I predict the return of Chase will fuel the Bengals to a victory!

[JaggedJimmyJay]

(12-03-2022, 12:19 PM)FRANCH15E Wrote: Is it? I mean Mahomes has never even lost 3 in a row at the pro level. Patrick has been waiting a while for this game, he won’t be denied. Be prepared to watch lots of Mahomes magic on Sunday!

Mahomes is great and will be difficult for anyone to beat. But the probability of beating him this time is not any lower just because of the previous two games. Perception and reality don’t align there.

[M.W.]

(12-03-2022, 12:19 PM)FRANCH15E Wrote: Is it? I mean Mahomes has never even lost 3 in a row at the pro level. Patrick has been waiting a while for this game, he won’t be denied. Be prepared to watch lots of Mahomes magic on Sunday!

All streaks end at some point.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

The same logic applies against the Bengals. “Surely the Browns won’t get to 4-0 against Burrow”

Welp. Every game is self-contained. What happened before is meaningless.

[HarleyDog]

Eisen loves him some Burrow

[WVUHomer]

(12-03-2022, 12:58 PM)M.W. Wrote: All streaks end at some point.

Its like this guy doesn't understand the streaks Burrow broke last year. 

Pretty sure Burrow ending a 50 playoff road game drought (twice i might add) is signicantly stronger streak than the 4 year 3 game in a row streak.

[CJD]

(12-03-2022, 09:58 AM)Rubekahn29 Wrote: This might surprise you- but the amount of people who pick us to win or lose does not impact the final score.

This might surprise you, but it definitely could. Players are not robots. The weight of expectation exists even if "they aren't paying attention to it." Being an underdog or being a favorite can 100% have an impact on how both teams perceive the game and ultimately how they play in the game.

[M.W.]

(12-03-2022, 03:48 PM)WVUHomer Wrote: Its like this guy doesn't understand the streaks Burrow broke last year. 

Pretty sure Burrow ending a 50 playoff road game drought (twice i might add) is signicantly stronger streak than the 4 year 3 game in a row streak.

All streaks end.. It is like logic isn't applicable to some people. 

[Rubekahn29]

(12-03-2022, 06:18 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: This might surprise you, but it definitely could. Players are not robots. The weight of expectation exists even if "they aren't paying attention to it." Being an underdog or being a favorite can 100% have an impact on how both teams perceive the game and ultimately how they play in the game.

You’re overselling your own perception. You are also selling short players own responsibility and ability to fit your own agenda. You THINK it has an impact to which you have exactly no evidence to support. Your correlation is not causation.

[mhbsavant]

(12-03-2022, 01:26 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: I am not a fan of how many people think we're going to beat the Chiefs.

Who beats Mahomes three times in a row? The very idea is hard to believe. I would be much more comfortable if no one expected us to win.

Why even suit up?

This statement is just as lazy as some of these NFL "Experts" are when it comes to their journalism!

All their picks and the reasons/explanations of their picks all go back to the "History" SMH like who cares what someone has done before me! I heard one fool say the Bengals wont outlast the Ravens this year because the Ravens have a rich past, he said they have a history of success! OK dumbass, what does that have to do with Joe Burrow - What does Carson Palmers failures have to do with the 2023 Bengals!

Mahomes can be beat 3 times in a row!!!!! and Burrow going hand him his ass!

[CJD]

(12-03-2022, 09:37 PM)Rubekahn29 Wrote: You’re overselling your own perception. You are also selling short players own responsibility and ability to fit your own agenda. You THINK it has an impact to which you have exactly no evidence to support. Your correlation is not causation.

I didn't say it definitely would. Just that it could. 

You were the one making the definitive statement so you're actually the one who would need to present evidence.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

It is essentially irrefutable that the conditions surrounding a football game (including the perceptions of that game from external sources such as the media) impact the football game. If a single player witnesses it, then it will have a non-zero impact upon his view of the game and then by extension the way he approaches playing the game.

The important question isn't "is there an impact?" but rather "is the impact meaningful enough to be worth discussing?" --> I don't know the answer to the latter question. I suspect it depends upon the circumstances. But I do think this sort of thing extends beyond the confines of basic superstition.

[WVUHomer]

(12-03-2022, 10:34 PM)JaggedJimmyJay Wrote: It is essentially irrefutable that the conditions surrounding a football game (including the perceptions of that game from external sources such as the media) impact the football game. If a single player witnesses it, then it will have a non-zero impact upon his view of the game and then by extension the way he approaches playing the game.

The important question isn't "is there an impact?" but rather "is the impact meaningful enough to be worth discussing?" --> I don't know the answer to the latter question. I suspect it depends upon the circumstances. But I do think this sort of thing extends beyond the confines of basic superstition.

 Awesome post. Couldn't be summed up more perfectly. +Rep

[*rfaulk34*]

(12-03-2022, 10:34 PM)JaggedJimmyJay Wrote: It is essentially irrefutable that the conditions surrounding a football game (including the perceptions of that game from external sources such as the media) impact the football game. If a single player witnesses it, then it will have a non-zero impact upon his view of the game and then by extension the way he approaches playing the game.

The important question isn't "is there an impact?" but rather "is the impact meaningful enough to be worth discussing?" --> I don't know the answer to the latter question. I suspect it depends upon the circumstances. But I do think this sort of thing extends beyond the confines of basic superstition.

It's hard to say it doesn't when players cite it all the time. Anyone think Justin Reid's comments aren't going to have an impact on some Bengals players?

I've battled with the idea that it gives them an "edge" because i've always felt that they're already giving their maximum effort and it always comes down to preparation and execution. I'm starting to come around to the idea that it can impact them where they watch more film, lift more weight, get a mental edge whereas before they were giving what they perceived to be their maximum effort when it was actually just a bit short of that. 

All that said, i think those things all fade away before halftime. You can get a bit more pumped, play a little bit harder, focus a little more in the beginning but eventually you get lost in the execution of a game and you're doing what you've always done. 

In addition to that, sometimes the other guy is just better and no amount of 'extra effort' is going to matter. 

[kchiefs1]

You guys need it more and that’s why a few talking heads are picking Cincinnati.

[WVUHomer]

(12-04-2022, 03:44 AM)kchiefs1 Wrote: You guys need it more and that’s why a few talking heads are picking Cincinnati.

It couldn't have anything to do with us gelling plus beating you twice when we DIDN'T have a OL, could it?

[t3r3e3]

(12-03-2022, 01:26 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: I am not a fan of how many people think we're going to beat the Chiefs.

Who beats Mahomes three times in a row? The very idea is hard to believe. I would be much more comfortable if no one expected us to win.

The Chiefs without Hill are less explosive. Their defense isn’t scary. The Bengals have a good chance of winning, especially if they can contain the running game. With Chase back the Bengals have arguably the better offense. Mahomes is a great QB, but the Chiefs are beatable.