Pick a stat

[EatonFan]

Which stat would you 'take' going into this game?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Hard to say, but I went with the four field goal attempts. If we're stalling that team out for three points on a consistent basis, I like our chances.

[M.W.]

I went with plus one turn over - if it said allow ONLY 4 FGs no TDS I would go with that obviously however if they get 4 TD and 4 FG attempts will will likely lose.

[EatonFan]

I know I made the poll, but all of these are good. Maholmes has only been sacked 17 times all year. Chase (coming off injury) with 100 yards would be great. <70 or <300 would be excellent. I'm having difficulty picking.

[thompson19osu]

are we to assume the four field goals are the only points they are going to score on offense? Far away that would be the best option if that's the only points they are going to have.

[WVUHomer]

Considering how good our D has been WITHOUT TOs, to be +1 on them feels like it would sway us victory. Though 4 FGs or <300 does make a strong argument.

Edit:

If we are losing the TO battle, Maholmes being under 300 yards likely doesn't have as big of effect on the score.

[EatonFan]

(12-03-2022, 03:30 PM)thompson19osu Wrote: are we to assume the four field goals are the only points they are going to score on offense? Far away that would be the best option if that's the only points they are going to have.

Nope.  That's allow four FG ATTEMPTS and ??? touchdowns.

[QueenCity]

Think the 4 field goal attempts is the easy answer... would of been harder if you removed it.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

The Chiefs are only going to have a finite number of possessions. If four of them end in field goal attempts (meaning they could be missed), then the remaining possessions (maybe 4-5 more?) can end in either TDs or nothing. On balance that probably equates to about 3.5/4 expected field goals made (~11 points, or a 9 vs. 12 split). If you give them two TDs in the other possessions, they'll score approximately 23-27 points. That's not too bad, but it's not "good" either. So the value of the FGs option really comes down to what one expects individually. I think holding them to a bunch of kicks probably signals a strong overall defensive performance, but it's not a sure bet.

I also don't think being +1 in turnovers would be all that meaningful. It would certainly help, but that's just a one possession turn. I don't care much about the yardage-based options. They are very circumstantial and could inflate even in games that go against the player in question.

[SouthernFan]

None of the above. The only stat that matters is a Bengals W.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

(12-03-2022, 06:12 PM)SouthernFan Wrote: None of the above. The only stat that matters is a Bengals W.

The idea is that we can select which "stat" we believe is most likely to signal that the Bengals got the W. Obviously we'd all take whatever we get if it ends in a W, but certain statistical output is probably more conducive to Ws than other statistical output.

[Johnny Cupcakes]

Give me the 4 FG attempts. If you do this, you’re most likely holding them to under 30 or fewer points. I like our chances of winning at that point.

(12-03-2022, 06:12 PM)SouthernFan Wrote: None of the above. The only stat that matters is a Bengals W.

Is a win considered a stat?

[EatonFan]

There's a choice under each option now.

[BFritz21]

I went with limit Mahomes but it's a tough one.

I think Mixon 120+ yards rushing should have also been a choice because, if he has over 120 yards rushing, it means that we're controlling the game and the clock, as well as keeping Mahomes off the field.

[Interceptor]

3 sacks - at critical moments in the 4th Q with a close game

[*Go Cards*]

Turnovers would be my first choice, followed by the FG's

But voted to sack Mahomes at least 3 times just for my viewing pleasure and feel that may cause the turnovers and or FG's to come into fruition as well.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

I voted +1 and winning the turnover battle as I think we win if we do but I understand why someone would vote for the 4 FG's.

Either way we win pretty damn sure.

[ezekiel23]

Chase having 100 yards.I think he’ll get a deep ball at some point.He said in the interview he feels really good,and I think he’s going to be pumped for this game.

[EatonFan]

How about almost all of them!