Reevaluating the WR market as the regular season comes to a close

[Housh]

Coming into 2022-2023 i was of the opinion that should resign all 3 guys but the team is likely looking to just keep 2/3 of our WRs long term.


Tyreke Hill set the WR market signing his 4 year 120 million dollar extension. About 30 million a year. This year Hill’s base salary is 1M but next year it’s 16M then it’s 19, then 21 then the last year of the deal it’s a whopping 44 million dollar base salary. If they cut him before the final year(32 years old) the deal turns into 95M dollar deal. But either way just by putting pen to paper he earned 72 million guaranteed.

These are Hill’s stats year by year since 2020.

2020 87 rec, 1276 yards, 15 TD
2021 111 rec, 1239 yards, 9 TD
2022 (so far) 109 rec, 1529 yards, 7 TD


Also keep in mind Hill isn’t really an off the field issue and isn’t a hothead on the field. Pretty much reports to work, gets it in and goes home. His agent is Drew Rosenhaus. Pretty good agent.



Let’s look at our guys:

Jamar Chase
2021 81 rec, 1455 yards, 13 TD
2022(so far, factor in 4 missed games) 79 rec, 960 yards, 8 TDS.

A popular market value generator i use, estimated Chase’s market value if this were his contract year, at 4 years 100M which would match the new AJ Brown Eagles contract. For context AJ Brown last year in 13 games had 63 rec, 869 yards and 5 TD. Keep in mind Ryan Tannehill is pure trash and the Titans were a running team. His numbers this year are very good. Also keep in mind Chase has been pretty durable, isn’t a hothead and doesn’t have the diva gene. Games have gone where he was barely targeted and he didn’t say anything to the media.


Tee Higgins
2020 67 rec, 908 yards, 6 TD
2021 74 rec, 1091 yards, 6 TD
2022(so far) 73 rec, 1022 yards, 7 TD

The market value estimator has him valued at around 4 year 95M contract which is approx. 24M per year if he were a FA this year. Keep in mind he’s been sorta injury prone throughout his career and he’s getting these stats, which are #1 WR stats as a number 2. So it’s very probable his agent will say his stats would be better on any other team which i would agree with. Imo Tee could reasonably ask for the same contract Chase gets.

Tyler Boyd
2020 79 rec, 841 yards, 4 TD
2021 67 rec, 828 yards, 5 TD
2022(so far) 53 rec, 711 yards, 5 TD

The website i use that does market value didn’t have an entry for Boyd so i had to get creative. I tried my best to find a good slot WR comparison contract and alot of the better slot guys also take a lot of outside snaps too so it was hard. Boyd really never takes snaps as the outside WR. Even if both chase and Tee are hurt Boyd would stay in the slot which is important. Guys like Keenan Allen, and Tyler Lockett have the ability to play slot and outside so their contracts reflect that. Not saying Boyd couldn’t put up 100 catches as a teams lone outside WR but he just hasn’t been asked to do that since we got Burrow.

I have to guess Boyd would be able to ask for 3 years 45M which would be around 15M per. This would be more than the one he signed a couple years ago which was for 4 years 43M. Remember at the time of signing that contract he was arguably a top 3 slot WR. With inflation and on a that doesn’t have 2 other WRs i don’t feel like 3 years 45M is crazy. It may be off but it ain’t CRAZY off.







With all 3 guys playing really good and Burrow probably here for life i can only imagine they can maintain these numbers.

So Iv asked if before and I’ll ask again. Based off their play so far which guys do you sign? Prior to this year starting i was in the camp of resigning all 3. I still am. Chase and Tee together would be 200M. If Boyd is only going to be maybe 40M more and you add in Burrow’s possibly 50M a year we’re at approx. 115M dollars per year in base salary for 4 guys.



I read a couple sites and the 2023 salary cap is expected to be 220M. 220-115 is 105M left for the o line and defense IF we indeed signed all 4 of those guys. Trey Hendrickson average salary is 15M, Reader 13M, Hilton 6M, Jessie Bates market value is at around 10M per year right now, Pratt’s estimated market value is around 8M. Logan Wilson will get more than that. Lemme just say 14M per year. We’re at 65M now which leaves us with 40 more million. Jonah, Karras, Cappa and Collins together are about 30M. That leaves 10 million left which is probably about where we’d stop because we love to have rollover cap.


Now obviously you can’t have a team of like 20 dudes so some of these guys are getting walking papers and we will be drafting replacements.


Just a matter of who?

[*michaelsean*]

Probably have to let Tyler walk after next year if Irwin shows he can do it over time. I think if Jie gets an extension this year it doesn’t kick in until 2025.I guess the biggest problem is having enough cash to put away for the guaranteed money. Makes no sense that they have to bank all that.

[Housh]

I’ll add that with alot of these guys being FA in 2024 and Burrow being one in 2025 you could theoretically front load contracts so that maybe guys get like 50% of the contract’s value in 2024 and 2025 before Burrows big cap hits start coming. Then you could also backload Burrow’s contract so that his insane cap hits happen in 2026 and beyond, which would give you flexibility to keep some of the current guys here.

[*michaelsean*]

(12-24-2022, 09:20 PM)Housh Wrote: I’ll add that with alot of these guys being FA in 2024 and Burrow being one in 2025 you could theoretically front load contracts so that maybe guys get like 50% of the contract’s value in 2024 and 2025 before Burrows big cap hits start coming. Then you could also backload Burrow’s contract so that his insane cap hits happen in 2026 and beyond, which would give you flexibility to keep some of the current guys here.

Yeah pay out some big money next year.

[leonardfan40]

Let Boyd play out his deal and walk. Sign Tee asap and like most contracts back load it a bit. Sign Burrow and give Chase record setting WR money if needed.

Long term keeping Joe and Chase together is the important thing. Worst case tag Tee and trade him for picks. Best scenario likely involves signing him long term and keeping him for 2-3 of those years before Burrow and Chase’s contracts really start eating into the cap. Then trade Tee at that point. As long as he doesn’t have a huge production drop off we should be able to trade him easily for nice picks.

We are at a point now where we really need to draft a WR in the first 4 rounds pretty much every year and try to have Burrow/Chase and a bunch of cheap rookie deals. Burrow should be able to elevate them at this point. Then try to trade them if they flourish in their final year to replace them with picks.

[bengaloo]

I think eventually Boyd goes and they sign, or try to sign Tee. Keeping Tee and Chase together would be a big deal. Keeping all three doesnt seem possible but it would be great. Irwin is just fine though, and Burrow will make every WR better. I could see us parting ways with Mixon to make more room to sign Tee, tbh.

[BengalsBong]

This is a offseason discussion and it is not the offseason.

[*pally*]

The better player to compare Ja'Marr's future contract to is the one Justin Jefferson will get this off-season.

The biggest obstacle to re-signing Tee is his agent and the agent's willingness to play hardball on signing bonuses and guaranteed money. 2 things the Bengals have been reluctant to meet in other negotiations. Tee will get WR1 dollars, with a huge signing bonus, and lots of guaranteed money from some team. The question is if Tee is willing to go to a struggling team and lesser QB to get that money.

[QueenCity]

I struggle with the "take less money" camp of people. Although I realize that no matter how much $$$ these players get it's already 100x more than the average person will ever make.

Selfishly I want Higgins to be a Bengals lifer... so Legacy over Money TEE!

If he does leave at least go to a team with an elite QB... no one wants to see him struggle ala Marvin Jones or Sanu (although he's better than both)

[Big_Ern]

While it would be nice to keep both Tee and Chase, I think the money spent elsewhere is the way to go (keeping Chase only). You surround Burrow with dependable receivers that know where they are supposed to be and he can spread it around given time. You give him Chase and 3 Irwin type guys and he will produce with a capable o-line.

[Cosmokramer]

I think Chase is resigned no matter. I think Tee gets resigned unless we win the SB. That would change a lot, then a lot of these fellas would sign with a lesser team for more money.. otherwise IMO they want to stay competitive. I think Irwin replaces Boyd and honestly, that’s not that huge of a loss. I think Irwin fits in nicely. I still want defense, and I hope we resign Vonn Bell. I love that dude!

[casear2727]

(12-24-2022, 09:12 PM)Housh Wrote: Coming into 2022-2023 i was of the opinion that should resign all 3 guys but the team is likely looking to just keep 2/3 of our WRs long term.


Tyreke Hill set the WR market signing his 4 year 120 million dollar extension. About 30 million a year. This year Hill’s base salary is 1M but next year it’s 16M then it’s 19, then 21 then the last year of the deal it’s a whopping 44 million dollar base salary. If they cut him before the final year(32 years old) the deal turns into 95M dollar deal. But either way just by putting pen to paper he earned 72 million guaranteed.

These are Hill’s stats year by year since 2020.

2020 87 rec, 1276 yards, 15 TD
2021 111 rec, 1239 yards, 9 TD
2022 (so far) 109 rec, 1529 yards, 7 TD


Also keep in mind Hill isn’t really an off the field issue and isn’t a hothead on the field. Pretty much reports to work, gets it in and goes home. His agent is Drew Rosenhaus. Pretty good agent.



Let’s look at our guys:

Jamar Chase
2021 81 rec, 1455 yards, 13 TD
2022(so far, factor in 4 missed games) 79 rec, 960 yards, 8 TDS.

A popular market value generator i use, estimated Chase’s market value if this were his contract year, at 4 years 100M which would match the new AJ Brown Eagles contract. For context AJ Brown last year in 13 games had 63 rec, 869 yards and 5 TD. Keep in mind Ryan Tannehill is pure trash and the Titans were a running team. His numbers this year are very good. Also keep in mind Chase has been pretty durable, isn’t a hothead and doesn’t have the diva gene. Games have gone where he was barely targeted and he didn’t say anything to the media.  


Tee Higgins
2020 67 rec, 908 yards, 6 TD
2021 74 rec, 1091 yards, 6 TD
2022(so far) 73 rec, 1022 yards, 7 TD

The market value estimator has him valued at around 4 year 95M contract which is approx. 24M per year if he were a FA this year. Keep in mind he’s been sorta injury prone throughout his career and he’s getting these stats, which are #1 WR stats as a number 2. So it’s very probable his agent will say his stats would be better on any other team which i would agree with. Imo Tee could reasonably ask for the same contract Chase gets.

Tyler Boyd
2020 79 rec, 841 yards, 4 TD
2021 67 rec, 828 yards, 5 TD
2022(so far) 53 rec, 711 yards, 5 TD

The website i use that does market value didn’t have an entry for Boyd so i had to get creative. I tried my best to find a good slot WR comparison contract and alot of the better slot guys also take a lot of outside snaps too so it was hard. Boyd really never takes snaps as the outside WR. Even if both chase and Tee are hurt Boyd would stay in the slot which is important. Guys like Keenan Allen, and Tyler Lockett have the ability to play slot and outside so their contracts reflect that. Not saying Boyd couldn’t put up 100 catches as a teams lone outside WR but he just hasn’t been asked to do that since we got Burrow.

I have to guess Boyd would be able to ask for 3 years 45M which would be around 15M per. This would be more than the one he signed a couple years ago which was for 4 years 43M. Remember at the time of signing that contract he was arguably a top 3 slot WR. With inflation and on a that doesn’t have 2 other WRs i don’t feel like 3 years 45M is crazy. It may be off but it ain’t CRAZY off.







With all 3 guys playing really good and Burrow probably here for life i can only imagine they can maintain these numbers.

So Iv asked if before and I’ll ask again. Based off their play so far which guys do you sign? Prior to this year starting i was in the camp of resigning all 3. I still am. Chase and Tee together would be 200M. If Boyd is only going to be maybe 40M more and you add in Burrow’s possibly 50M a year we’re at approx. 115M dollars per year in base salary for 4 guys.



I read a couple sites and the 2023 salary cap is expected to be 220M. 220-115 is 105M left for the o line and defense IF we indeed signed all 4 of those guys. Trey Hendrickson average salary is 15M, Reader 13M, Hilton 6M, Jessie Bates market value is at around 10M per year right now, Pratt’s estimated market value is around 8M. Logan Wilson will get more than that. Lemme just say 14M per year. We’re at 65M now which leaves us with 40 more million. Jonah, Karras, Cappa and Collins together are about 30M. That leaves 10 million left which is probably about where we’d stop because we love to have rollover cap.


Now obviously you can’t have a team of like 20 dudes so some of these guys are getting walking papers and we will be drafting replacements.


Just a matter of who?

What year are you referring to with these extensions/re-signings?

[Whatever]

Chase is obviously priority one. He's produced regardless of who else is in the lineup. Tee stepped up in the WR1 role with Chase out and proved that he's that caliber of player(which I doubted for quite awhile). Boyd was the invisible man when Chase went down, strongly indicating that he is dependent on having other high end WR's around him in order to be effective.

They should really push to keep Chase and Higgins. This upcoming off-season, Boyd should either be traded or cut as a cap casualty, but that would be dependent on resigning Irwin and dumping significant draft capital into the position group, as Irwin, Taylor, and Morgan are all in contract years iirc.

[THE PISTONS]

Keep Tee and Chase. Draft a wr in the 2nd or 3rd.

Gotta pay Bell, Pratt, and then look to extend Wilson, Hendrickson, Reader, etc.

[THE PISTONS]

(12-26-2022, 03:58 PM)Whatever Wrote: Chase is obviously priority one.  He's produced regardless of who else is in the lineup.  Tee stepped up in the WR1 role with Chase out and proved that he's that caliber of player(which I doubted for quite awhile).  Boyd was the invisible man when Chase went down, strongly indicating that he is dependent on having other high end WR's around him in order to be effective.

They should really push to keep Chase and Higgins.  This upcoming off-season, Boyd should either be traded or cut as a cap casualty, but that would be dependent on resigning Irwin and dumping significant draft capital into the position group, as Irwin, Taylor, and Morgan are all in contract years iirc.

Chase also has 3 years left on his contract.

[THE PISTONS]

(12-26-2022, 03:24 PM)QueenCity Wrote: I struggle with the "take less money" camp of people.  Although I realize that no matter how much $$$ these players get it's already 100x more than the average person will ever make.

Selfishly I want Higgins to be a Bengals lifer... so Legacy over Money TEE!

If he does leave at least go to a team with an elite QB... no one wants to see him struggle ala Marvin Jones or Sanu (although he's better than both)

Higgins might want to be a #1.

On the other side, he might want to stay with Burrow.

Players generally take the most money though.

[wanga]

Hope we can keep Tee and Ja’Marr, Boyd is expendable. The others not so much.

[motoarch]

(12-26-2022, 01:56 PM)BengalsBong Wrote: This is a offseason discussion and it is not the offseason.

We do what we want.




Let boyd go and move Irwin into the line up.

[J24]

Both Tee and Chase are going to be making 30 or close to 30 million a year(Chase a bit more and Tee a bit less). I don't think it is a realistic goal for both to sign here long term.

The bigger question is do the Bengals trade Tee this offseason and get max value ,or let him go for a 3rd rd Comp in 2024, or Tag him in 2024 and gain a 3rd Rd comp in 2026.

To me if we can't sign him longterm than we should trade him this offseason preferably for a 1st Rd pick + a 3rd RD pick or a young foundation player

Ex Bengals trade Tee Higgins to Packers for a 1st Rd pick + OT Zac Tom!

[Cosmokramer]

(12-26-2022, 06:11 PM)J24 Wrote: Both Tee and Chase are going to be making 30 or close to 30 million a year(Chase a bit more and Tee a bit less). I don't think it is a realistic goal for both to sign here long term.

The bigger question is do the Bengals trade Tee this offseason and get max value ,or let him go for a 3rd rd Comp in 2024, or Tag him in 2024 and gain a 3rd Rd comp in 2026.

To me if we can't sign him longterm than we should trade him this offseason preferably for a 1st Rd pick + a 3rd RD pick or a young foundation player

Ex Bengals trade Tee Higgins to Packers for a 1st Rd pick + OT Zac Tom!

I wouldn’t trade him for picks. No promise they work out at all. And he’s just too good. Worst case is tag him. But you keep burrow, chase and tee together with Irwin as the 3rd. You will always have the ability to be deadly.