wk 17 NFL GD thread and updated playoff scenarios

[*rfaulk34*]

Minny had it all in front of them. Eagles lost so they could have tied them (dunno about tie breakers there). Instead, with a loss, the niners are the #2 seed right now and Minny is #3.

[*rfaulk34*]

A Dallas win and Eagles loss next week means the Cowboys are East champs. Eagles play the the Giants at home and Dallas is at Wash. 

If that happens, a 49ers win against the Cardinals makes them the #1 seed.

[Bengalholic]

Raiders lost, but put up 34 points and 500 yards on the best defense in the NFL. If the Bengals can win Monday night, there's at least reason to think LV could upset the Chiefs...who haven't looked all that great these past 3 weeks.

[*rfaulk34*]

My goodness. Has there ever been so much up for stake in the final week of the season before??

[Destro]

TB in the playoffs...yuck.

[*rfaulk34*]

Seattle is win and in next week playing at LAR. 

If Seattle loses, it's win and in with the Lions @ GB game.

[*Awful Llama*]

(01-01-2023, 09:47 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: My goodness. Has there ever been so much up for stake in the final week of the season before??

In '88 we went into the final week needing a win for the #1 seed, if memory serves.  That may have been the game where Washington missed a late field goal to give us the win.    

[*rfaulk34*]

Patriots are win and in next week but they play @Buffalo so that's a loss.

That means Miami is win and in playing the eliminated Jets in Miami. If the Jets somehow upset Miami and Pitt wins tonight, that means Pitt is in if they beat the Browns at home.

[*rfaulk34*]

(01-01-2023, 09:54 PM)Destro Wrote: TB in the playoffs...yuck.

It should be a short stay. They'll play either the Cowboys or Eagles. 

[*rfaulk34*]

(01-01-2023, 09:56 PM)Awful Llama Wrote: In '88 we went into the final week needing a win for the #1 seed, if memory serves.  That may have been the game where Washington missed a late field goal to give us the win.    

100% correct.

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

(01-01-2023, 09:55 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Seattle is win and in next week playing at LAR. 

If Seattle loses, it's win and in with the Lions @ GB game.

I don't think so. Packers control own destiny. Just because Seattle is 7th now (3 way TB), ut does not mean they win the 2 way with GB if the Packers win next week. 

Edit: full explanation:

In a 3 way tie, if two teams are in the same Div, they whittle that down to one first. Detroit is 1-0 vs GB, so they win that TB,,but lose the TB to Seattle on head to head.

However,,if GB beats Detroit next week & Seattle wins also, it will be a Sea v GB tie. The teams have not played, and GB has a better conference record.

[Ctfan73]

(01-01-2023, 09:56 PM)Awful Llama Wrote: In '88 we went into the final week needing a win for the #1 seed, if memory serves.  That may have been the game where Washington missed a late field goal to give us the win.    

Yes. We also needed the Colts to beat the Bills the next day, and they came through.

[*rfaulk34*]

How much do you want to bet that Tua somehow plays next week?

[*rfaulk34*]

(01-01-2023, 10:06 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: I don't think so. Packers control own destiny. Just because Seattle is 7th now (3 way TB), ut does not mean they win the 2 way with GB if the Packers win next week. 

You're right. I didn't notice the conference records. GB with a win has a better conference record so they would be in over Seattle in a H2H tiebreaker. Right now, GB is behind DET and SEA due to them being "eliminated" by DET by H2H. 

Pack are win and in. 

[*rfaulk34*]

So...Packers are win and in next week. Seattle needs to win and have the Lions beat GB. 

If Detroit beats GB, they need Seattle to lose. 

[*rfaulk34*]

I'm gonna be right up front about it. Now that i'm over "hating" other teams, i'll be openly rooting for the Steelers to beat Balt tonight. 

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

(01-01-2023, 10:14 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: So...Packers are win and in next week. Seattle needs to win and have the Lions beat GB. 

If Detroit beats GB, they need Seattle to lose. 

Exactly. Assuming no ties. A GB/Det tie would eliminate both if Sea wins. 

AFC is trickier. 

NE is in with a win at Buffalo, but that seems unlikely. They can still get in at 8-9 (I think) as long as Jaxsonville wins the South. 

The AFC South champ is the Jax/Titans winner, and Jax can still make it with a loss if #7 is a tie at 8-9. They have the best conf record of the 8-8/7-9 teams at 7-3). They did not play NE, MIA, OR PITT. But that would require a NE loss at Buffalo (likely), Miami losing at home to NY (unlikely), and Pitt failing to win out (even). Any tie at 8-9 involving Jax + NE, MIA, &/or Pitt results in the Jags getting in. 

If NE loses, Miami is in with a win vs NY. The Fins are out in any tie with NE b/c the Pats have a better DIV record. A loss & they are out. 

The Steelers have the worst conference record of the contenders (3-7) and have lost to the entire AFC East. They cannot win a TB and need to stand alone at 9-8 to get in. Win out and have NE & MIA lose. 8-9 and in is impossible for them. 

I *think* that is correct. But I did not factor in the Jets, who are eliminated, but could still get to 8-9.

[cinci4life]

Steelers take an early 3-0 lead.

[*rfaulk34*]

(01-01-2023, 10:33 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: Exactly. Assuming no ties. A GB/Det tie would eliminate both if Sea wins. 

AFC is tricker. 

NE is in with a win at Buffalo, but that seems unlikely. They can still get in at 8-9 (I think) as long as Jaxsonville wins the South. 

The AFC South champ is the Jax/Titans winner, and Jax can still make it with a loss if #7 is a tie at 8-9. They have the best conf record of the 8-8/7-9 teams at 7-3). They did not play NE, MIA, OR PITT. But that would require a NE loss at Buffalo (likely), Miami losing at home to NY (unlikely), and Pitt failing to win out (even). Any tie at 8-9 involving Jax + NE, MIA, &/or Pitt results in the Jags getting in. 

If NE loses, Miami is in with a win vs NY. The Fins are out in any tie with NE b/c the Pats have a better DIV record. A loss & they are out. 

The Steelers have the worst conference record of the contenders (3-7) and have lost to the entire AFC East. They cannot win a TB and need to stand alone at 9-8 to get in. Win out and have NE & MIA lose. 8-9 and in is impossible for them. 

I am not EVEN going there with ties. lol

True at Jax making it with a loss if the other 8-8s lose as well. 

I was going on the assumption that Jax wins next week. 

[Bengalbug]

(01-01-2023, 09:55 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Seattle is win and in next week playing at LAR. 

If Seattle loses, it's win and in with the Lions @ GB game.

That’s not true. Seattle is mathematically eliminated if GB wins. If GB wins they are in.

Sorry, I see this been corrected.