Battle Tested

[*SHRacerX*]

While still somewhat pissed that Assbag Goodell took away Cincy's ability to rest starters the last week of the season (and subsequently gave it to Baltiwhore), I look at the schedules of the last 8 teams that Buffalo and Cincinnati have played the back half of the season. Here is the list:

Buffalo (8-0 in these 8 games):

Cleveland
@ Detroit
@ New England
NY Jets
Miami
@ Chicago
@ Cincinnati (cancelled)
New England
Miami

Cincinnati (8-0 in these 8 games):

@ pissburgh
@ Titans
KC
Cleveland
@ Tampa Bay
@ New England
Buffalo (cancelled)
Baltimore
Baltimore

Buffalo had less travel, played one playoff team (twice) and that team (Miami) was a shell of itself in the playoff game. Cincinnati had three playoff teams, and played one of them twice (Ballsnomore). Here's this as well: All 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 playoff games ALL were decided on the final play of the game. They won 4 of them.

Yes, this game is on the road, and it will be a tough task, but as long as the Bengals have SOME success with Mixon and Perine to take some of the pressure on the offensive line and can avoid turnovers, I think they are the more talented team, with the better QB, the better defense, the better coaching staff, and are more battle tested.

WHO DEY!!!

[THE PISTONS]

I think a lot is in our favor, but missing 3 lineman is a big variable too.

[Whacked]

We are the better team for sure but sometimes we don’t show up or take a half off.

It’s bizarre.

When Joe is ON - we win.

KC is the only team that I’d having a hard time arguing we are better w such confidence and certainty.
*They are better than they were last year.

With a healthy O-Line - we can beat anyone.

This current one makes me nervous.

This will be a good one!

[samhain]

(01-22-2023, 02:09 PM)Whacked Wrote: We are the better team for sure but sometimes we don’t show up or take a half off.

It’s bizarre.

When Joe is ON - we win.

KC is the only team that I’d having a hard time arguing we are better w such confidence and certainty.
*They are better than they were last year.

With a healthy O-Line - we can beat anyone.

This current one makes me nervous.

This will be a good one!

Agree mostly, but I think there are weaknesses for both teams that are impactful.  The Bills defense has been bad in terms of pressuring qbs since Miller went out.  Like bottom 3rd of the league bad from top five with him.  They suck against the run, too.  it's all pretty confusing considering their scoring defense ranks so high.

Still, it will be tough as hell for 3 backup linemen to gel and communicate in a hostile road environment.  

If it comes down to the defenses, I still like the Bengals.  Hubbard didn't play in the small sample of action vs the Bills two weeks ago.  He's the run contain specialist and often serves as the qb spy.  He looks like he's running just fine.  Having him at game speed could be a big deal vs Allen.  

Buffalo's o-line isn't injury-riddled.  it's just not great to begin with.  Saffold is washed and the other guard has played poorly.  Reader should have his way with them.  

As long as Buffalo doesn't score 21 unanswered early, I like the Bengals chances today.  Burrow has spent his career functioning behind crap o-lines, and I don't think the one they roll out today is even the worst he's had.  These guys aren't facing Autry and Simmons from last year's Titans group that pounded him.  They aren't facing Donald, Floyd and Miller, either.  This is hardly the worst position he's been in in terms of trench mismatches on the road.  

[*SHRacerX*]

(01-22-2023, 02:09 PM)Whacked Wrote: We are the better team for sure but sometimes we don’t show up or take a half off.

It’s bizarre.

When Joe is ON - we win.

KC is the only team that I’d having a hard time arguing we are better w such confidence and certainty.
*They are better than they were last year.

With a healthy O-Line - we can beat anyone.

This current one makes me nervous.

This will be a good one!

Agreed.  And I think the coaches know to put it in his hands, which can also mean running the ball as he can audible.  But, yes, Burrow is the man and I think the Bills go from 13-1 at home playoff games in their history to 13-2.  

[Nepa]

Just watched the NFL Network pre-game show. In response to the question, "Who do you trust more with the game on the line, Burrow or Allen," five of the six panelists answered Allen. The only one to answer Burrow was Michael Irving. To be fair, some picked against Burrow because of the OL. Still, I was surprised by the overwhelming consensus to choose Allen.

To the OP, Balitiwhore and Ballsnomore. I got a good laugh out of that.

[Essex Johnson]

(01-22-2023, 01:26 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: While still somewhat pissed that Assbag Goodell took away Cincy's ability to rest starters the last week of the season (and subsequently gave it to Baltiwhore), I look at the schedules of the last 8 teams that Buffalo and Cincinnati have played the back half of the season.  Here is the list:

Buffalo (8-0 in these 8 games):

Cleveland
@ Detroit
@ New England
NY Jets
Miami
@ Chicago
@ Cincinnati (cancelled)
New England
Miami

Cincinnati (8-0 in these 8 games):

@ pissburgh
@ Titans
KC
Cleveland
@ Tampa Bay
@ New England
Buffalo (cancelled)
Baltimore
Baltimore

Buffalo had less travel, played one playoff team (twice) and that team (Miami) was a shell of itself in the playoff game.  Cincinnati had three playoff teams, and played one of them twice (Ballsnomore).  Here's this as well:  All 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 playoff games ALL were decided on the final play of the game.  They won 4 of them.

Yes, this game is on the road, and it will be a tough task, but as long as the Bengals have SOME success with Mixon and Perine to take some of the pressure on the offensive line and can avoid turnovers, I think they are the more talented team, with the better QB, the better defense, the better coaching staff, and are more battle tested.  

WHO DEY!!!

 

Not sure how you can say Miami was a shell and Baltimore was not without Lamar... really not much difference except us beating KC was big.. Bills have been here before and are very battle tested also... this game is a flip of a coin..

[*SHRacerX*]

(01-22-2023, 03:19 PM)Nepa Wrote: Just watched the NFL Network pre-game show. In response to the question, "Who do you trust more with the game on the line, Burrow or Allen," five of the six panelists answered Allen. The only one to answer Burrow was Michael Irving. To be fair, some picked against Burrow because of the OL. Still, I was surprised by the overwhelming consensus to choose Allen.

To the OP, Balitiwhore and Ballsnomore. I got a good laugh out of that.

Thank you, I try.  Usually my venom is directed at the steelers but I was pretty pissed at the Ratbirds.  It was like they were the new steelers.  Assbags.  

[*SHRacerX*]

(01-22-2023, 03:23 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: Not sure how you can say Miami was a shell and Baltimore was not without Lamar... really not much difference except us beating KC was big.. Bills have been here before and are very battle tested also... this game is a flip of a coin..

Not remotely close to the same teams.  Miami had a PS guy starting and two other backups on their offensive line.  Aside from Lamar, Baltimore was 100% healthy.  Read that again.  Oh, and they got to rest 5 key starters the previous week and take cheap shots the entire week 18 game.  

Not remotely close to the same teams.  

[Essex Johnson]

(01-22-2023, 03:32 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: Not remotely close to the same teams.  Miami had a PS guy starting and two other backups on their offensive line.  Aside from Lamar, Baltimore was 100% healthy.  Read that again.  Oh, and they got to rest 5 key starters the previous week and take cheap shots the entire week 18 game.  

Not remotely close to the same teams.  

Last game of year, the Ravens had  what about 11 starters out and gave us a game.. if you think the Bills have been coasting and are not ready for this game, you have been sleeping through the last few years of the Bills... and the odds makers sure don;t agree with your assessment. 

[*SHRacerX*]

(01-22-2023, 01:53 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: I think a lot is in our favor, but missing 3 lineman is a big variable too.

Agreed.  And I did a breakdown showing the ratings for the replacement linemen vs. the ones they replaced.  The biggest loss in terms of pass blocking is Cappa.  He was very cerebral and worked so well with Karras.  That being said, Sharping in an NFL vet and is the best backup we have and shouldn't have much drop off in the run game.  

Carman, for all his warts, is probably quite a bit stronger than Williams.  He rarely, if ever, gets bullrushed, but we have seen that happen to Williams repeatedly.  He is playing the position he has more snaps at than any other in his career.  The Bengals say he has been taking snaps in practice all year at both Guard and Tackle.  It's his 23rd Birthday.  This is a huge chance for him to prove he belongs at LT.  It could be HUGE for the Bengals to not have to pay Jonah and stick with Carman.  He's young and inexperienced at the pro level, but he might just prove everyone wrong.  Especially those that made him switch to guard. 

Adeniji is probably a more consistent pass blocker than Collins, although no where near the mauler Collins is in the run game.  

So, in summary, the only real big drop off I see is with Sharping compared to Cappa in pass blocking.  Sharping is a big dude and can move people in the run game.  The Bengals might have a better run blocker in Carman over Williams and Adeniji is better (or at least more consistent in pass blocking).  

We know protecting Joe is job one.  If Carman can avoid getting off balance and being speed rushed inside, he should be at least as solid as Williams in pass pro.  Adeniji could be better., and Sharping is a vet with playoff experience.  I don't think the 3 backups are as bad as it would be if they lost the top 3 weapons.  I have faith that Zac and Brian will have a plan and Joe will execute it.  

[Essex Johnson]

(01-22-2023, 01:53 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: I think a lot is in our favor, but missing 3 lineman is a big variable too.

I would argue the Bills would gladly give us 3 lineman back if they were allowed Von Miller and Micah Hyde... i don;t see it as a big of a variable with those two out..

[*SHRacerX*]

(01-22-2023, 03:39 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: Last game of year, the Ravens had  what about 11 starters out and gave us a game.. if you think the Bills have been coasting and are not ready for this game, you have been sleeping through the last few years of the Bills... and the odds makers sure don;t agree with your assessment. 

Bills gave a 3rd string QB 3.2 seconds to throw.  A third string QB put up 31 points.  They had a hobbled Hill and Waddle that dropped 5 total passes.  Allen had 3 turnovers.  I am not sure your argument, but I was pointing out the Bengals are more battle tested (name of the thread?) and shared the data.  

And who gives a shit about the past few years?  This is today and this season.  

Do you understand what oddsmakers are trying to do when they determine a point spread?  They are trying to get equal money on both sides of the line.  That is why lines move as well.  It isn't a prediction of a score at all.  It is based on the public perception of the game, and after watching the Bengals struggle against a rested Ratbird team, as well as down 3 linemen, as well as the game being on the road, the perception has favored the Bills.  Has zero impact on the game.  

[*Nately120*]

(01-22-2023, 03:46 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: Bills gave a 3rd string QB 3.2 seconds to throw.  A third string QB put up 31 points.  They had a hobbled Hill and Waddle that dropped 5 total passes.  Allen had 3 turnovers.  I am not sure your argument, but I was pointing out the Bengals are more battle tested (name of the thread?) and shared the data.  

And who gives a shit about the past few years?  This is today and this season.  

Do you understand what oddsmakers are trying to do when they determine a point spread?  They are trying to get equal money on both sides of the line.  That is why lines move as well.  It isn't a prediction of a score at all.  It is based on the public perception of the game, and after watching the Bengals struggle against a rested Ratbird team, as well as down 3 linemen, as well as the game being on the road, the perception has favored the Bills.  Has zero impact on the game.  

In all fairness, didn't the Bengals and Bills both barely escape one and done losses at home to replacement QBs?  Remember all that "It's a tough division game, so any win has merit" sort of thing?  I think we beat the Bills today, but their own faltering in a win over the Dolphins doesn't factor into it.

[*SHRacerX*]

(01-22-2023, 03:50 PM)Nately120 Wrote: In all fairness, didn't the Bengals and Bills both barely escape one and done losses at home to replacement QBs?  Remember all that "It's a tough division game, so any win has merit" sort of thing?  I think we beat the Bills today, but their own faltering in a win over the Dolphins doesn't factor into it.

I think going against a completely healthy Ravens team with 5 starters rested the prior week, and only missing Lamar, but having Huntley who played extremely well is a bit different than facing a Fins team with a 3rd string rookie QB drafted in the 7th round and 3 backups on their offensive line, but I digress.

The whole point was that the Bengals are more tested down the stretch than the Bills.  

[Soonerpeace]

(01-22-2023, 03:19 PM)Nepa Wrote: Just watched the NFL Network pre-game show. In response to the question, "Who do you trust more with the game on the line, Burrow or Allen," five of the six panelists answered Allen. The only one to answer Burrow was Michael Irving. To be fair, some picked against Burrow because of the OL. Still, I was surprised by the overwhelming consensus to choose Allen.

To the OP, Balitiwhore and Ballsnomore. I got a good laugh out of that.

And ESPN Sunday Countdown they just gave the QB edge to Burrow.

[*Go Cards*]

If the O-line was not decimated I would have the Bengals favored

Still the Bengals have the weapons to get it done, if we can just keep Burrow upright.

[*Nately120*]

(01-22-2023, 03:54 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: I think going against a completely healthy Ravens team with 5 starters rested the prior week, and only missing Lamar, but having Huntley who played extremely well is a bit different than facing a Fins team with a 3rd string rookie QB drafted in the 7th round and 3 backups on their offensive line, but I digress.

The whole point was that the Bengals are more tested down the stretch than the Bills.  

Meh, we were one extremely unlikely play away from disaster.  Football is a game of inches and all that, but we lucked out a bit more than the Bills did...that's my 2 cents.

And I woludn't care if the Bengals somehow managed to win all their games against 0-17 teams, I'm taking Burrow over Allen any day.

(01-22-2023, 03:57 PM)Go Cards Wrote: If the O-line was not decimated I would have the Bengals favored

Still the Bengals have the weapons to get it done, if we can just keep Burrow upright.

It's better to keep him upright, but we've won games where he's taken half a seasons worth of sacks in a day.