2023 RB Draft Prospects Group Assessment

[*rfaulk34*]

(02-03-2023, 11:13 AM)WVUHomer Wrote: Or do they look at Charbonnet as a complete cow-bell in 2?

I still go RBBC with Perine and draft Spears in 3/4. 

Well, there is no denying the need...

[TecmoBengals]

I want the Bengals to grab a RB in the draft and move on from Mixon. Any of you feeling this as well?

[casear2727]

I would love to see a super quick back like Achane, especially if we are keeping Mixon.

If we draft Roschon Johnson and he looks really good, I dont see Mixon being around. Johnson is 6-2, 225, runs a 4.39 forty. He is a very good pass blocker. He played behind Bijon and may drop a little in the draft.

[*Synric*]

Marshall's Khalan Laborn could always be a 7th round pick. He is a mirrior prospect to Jahmyr Gibbs including the 5 star top running backs in their recruiting class. Difference is Laborn got busted with pot in a car and got kicked off the FSU team. He did stay two more years at FSU to finish his degree before transferring to Marshall to play football... that does say a little something about him.

[*ochocincos*]

(02-10-2023, 03:18 PM)casear2727 Wrote: I would love to see a super quick back like Achane, especially if we are keeping Mixon.

If we draft Roschon Johnson and he looks really good, I dont see Mixon being around. Johnson is 6-2, 225, runs a 4.39 forty.  He is a very good pass blocker.  He played behind Bijon and may drop a little in the draft.

Is that 40 time confirmed?
If he displays speed like this at the Combine/Pro Day, his value will skyrocket above the current projected 4th round.

[casear2727]

(02-10-2023, 03:27 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Is that 40 time confirmed?
If he displays speed like this at the Combine/Pro Day, his value will skyrocket above the current projected 4th round.

That is what is listed on a couple sites, I agree the combine could boost him.

[*bfine32*]

As a rule. I think RB must be taken early if you want a good one.

Gimme Paul Robinson's nephew at 28 and be set there for the next 5-6 years (aka a feature RBs career)

[*psychdoctor*]

(02-10-2023, 03:27 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Is that 40 time confirmed?
If he displays speed like this at the Combine/Pro Day, his value will skyrocket above the current projected 4th round.

That dude was clocked running over 20 mph

[*ochocincos*]

(02-10-2023, 04:56 PM)bfine32 Wrote: As a rule. I think RB must be taken early if you want a good one.

Gimme Paul Robinson's nephew at 28 and be set there for the next 5-6 years (aka a feature RBs career)

I think that's more of a general rule that applies to every position - the earlier the prospect, the more likely you are (or should be) to get a good player.
But when breaking down positions, I would probably put RB lower on the importance pole that you have to take early to get a good one.
QB, OL, DL, CB, WR are positions I have above RB when it comes to needing to get one early if you want a good one.

We see quite a good amount of the RBs who are in the Top 32 each year in rushing yards who were drafted 3rd round or below.
Going down the rushing leaders....
Jamaal Williams - 4th round
Alvin Kamara - 3rd round
Dameon Pierce - 4th round
Aaron Jones - 5th round
Tyler Allgeier - 5th round
Rhamondre Stevenson - 5th round
Brian Robinson - 3rd round
Austin Ekeler - UDFA
D'Onta Foreman - 3rd round
Tony Pollard - 4th round
Devin Singletary - 3rd round
Isaiah Pacheco - 7th round
Jeff Wilson - UDFA
Raheem Mostert - UDFA
James Conner - 3rd round
David Montgomery - 3rd round

That's half of the Top 32 RBs in terms of rushing yards.

I agree that the elite RBs are predominantly coming in the first two rounds of the draft, but there are still plenty of really good RBs who are getting drafted outside the top 2 rounds.

[3wt]

(02-10-2023, 05:24 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I think that's more of a general rule that applies to every position - the earlier the prospect, the more likely you are (or should be) to get a good player.
But when breaking down positions, I would probably put RB lower on the importance pole that you have to take early to get a good one.
QB, OL, DL, CB, WR are positions I have above RB when it comes to needing to get one early if you want a good one.

We see quite a good amount of the RBs who are in the Top 32 each year in rushing yards who were drafted 3rd round or below.
Going down the rushing leaders....
Jamaal Williams - 4th round
Alvin Kamara - 3rd round
Dameon Pierce - 4th round
Aaron Jones - 5th round
Tyler Allgeier - 5th round
Rhamondre Stevenson - 5th round
Brian Robinson - 3rd round
Austin Ekeler - UDFA
D'Onta Foreman - 3rd round
Tony Pollard - 4th round
Devin Singletary - 3rd round
Isaiah Pacheco - 7th round
Jeff Wilson - UDFA
Raheem Mostert - UDFA
James Conner - 3rd round
David Montgomery - 3rd round

That's half of the Top 32 RBs in terms of rushing yards.

I agree that the elite RBs are predominantly coming in the first two rounds of the draft, but there are still plenty of really good RBs who are getting drafted outside the top 2 rounds.

Seems like the good ones that drop have a  definite blemish that ultimately is compensated for when they reach the league.   Just need to be properly assessed.

[*ochocincos*]

(02-15-2023, 11:44 AM)3wt Wrote: Seems like the good ones that drop have a  definite blemish that ultimately is compensated for when they reach the league.   Just need to be properly assessed.

Depends on the "blemish," honestly.

[Whatever]

(02-10-2023, 05:24 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I think that's more of a general rule that applies to every position - the earlier the prospect, the more likely you are (or should be) to get a good player.
But when breaking down positions, I would probably put RB lower on the importance pole that you have to take early to get a good one.
QB, OL, DL, CB, WR are positions I have above RB when it comes to needing to get one early if you want a good one.

We see quite a good amount of the RBs who are in the Top 32 each year in rushing yards who were drafted 3rd round or below.
Going down the rushing leaders....
Jamaal Williams - 4th round
Alvin Kamara - 3rd round
Dameon Pierce - 4th round
Aaron Jones - 5th round
Tyler Allgeier - 5th round
Rhamondre Stevenson - 5th round
Brian Robinson - 3rd round
Austin Ekeler - UDFA
D'Onta Foreman - 3rd round
Tony Pollard - 4th round
Devin Singletary - 3rd round
Isaiah Pacheco - 7th round
Jeff Wilson - UDFA
Raheem Mostert - UDFA
James Conner - 3rd round
David Montgomery - 3rd round

That's half of the Top 32 RBs in terms of rushing yards.

I agree that the elite RBs are predominantly coming in the first two rounds of the draft, but there are still plenty of really good RBs who are getting drafted outside the top 2 rounds.

The problem I have with this is that in the current NFL, RB's are either blocking or running routes more than than actually carrying the rock.  The guys you typically find later in the draft are rarely every down type backs.  

The other big issue is the top end RB's tend to be very safe picks.  It's often better in the long run to take one in the 1st or 2nd and be set for the next 4-5 years than have to invest mid round picks in the position every year.

[*ochocincos*]

(02-15-2023, 05:38 PM)Whatever Wrote: The problem I have with this is that in the current NFL, RB's are either blocking or running routes more than than actually carrying the rock.  The guys you typically find later in the draft are rarely every down type backs.  

The other big issue is the top end RB's tend to be very safe picks.  It's often better in the long run to take one in the 1st or 2nd and be set for the next 4-5 years than have to invest mid round picks in the position every year.

If you're worried about a "safe" RB, there are plenty of cheaper veteran options that you can sign for very cheap ($5 mill or less).
No need to spend a premium draft pick on a RB.

Also, I'm not sure what you're talking about that the RBs taken earlier are every-down type guys.
They might be able to catch, but quite a lot of them (especially Mixon) aren't great at blocking.
They are primarily used to run the ball, and some more than others catch the ball too.

The "best" RB at pass blocking based on PFF rating that was a 1st round or 2nd round draft pick was D'Andre Swift, with a pass block rating of 73.8.
Most early-round draft pick RBs have a below-70 rating for pass blocking.
The guys with the higher pass-block rating are actually majority drafted Day 3.

If the offense is going to be more heavily focused on passing attack, I'd rather spend the early rounds on OL, pass catchers, and impactful defensive guys.
There are always guys you can find in the middle or later rounds of the draft that can contribute plenty.
They may not be in the Top 5 or Top 10 statistically when it comes to rushing or yards from scrimmage, but a heavy passing offense doesn't need that.

[Rotobeast]

Give me Deuce Vaughn in the 6th, after prioritizing both lines and a corner.

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[*Synric*]

(02-10-2023, 05:24 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I think that's more of a general rule that applies to every position - the earlier the prospect, the more likely you are (or should be) to get a good player.
But when breaking down positions, I would probably put RB lower on the importance pole that you have to take early to get a good one.
QB, OL, DL, CB, WR are positions I have above RB when it comes to needing to get one early if you want a good one.

We see quite a good amount of the RBs who are in the Top 32 each year in rushing yards who were drafted 3rd round or below.
Going down the rushing leaders....
Jamaal Williams - 4th round
Alvin Kamara - 3rd round
Dameon Pierce - 4th round
Aaron Jones - 5th round
Tyler Allgeier - 5th round
Rhamondre Stevenson - 5th round
Brian Robinson - 3rd round
Austin Ekeler - UDFA
D'Onta Foreman - 3rd round
Tony Pollard - 4th round
Devin Singletary - 3rd round
Isaiah Pacheco - 7th round
Jeff Wilson - UDFA
Raheem Mostert - UDFA
James Conner - 3rd round
David Montgomery - 3rd round

That's half of the Top 32 RBs in terms of rushing yards.

I agree that the elite RBs are predominantly coming in the first two rounds of the draft, but there are still plenty of really good RBs who are getting drafted outside the top 2 rounds.

It's easy to point out the late success for running back but in reality the % of successful late running backs is less than 10%.

Dameon Pierce was drafted in the top of the 4th round of the 2022 NFL draft. Other 4th round RB's include Zamir White (Rams), Isaiah Spiller (Chargers), Pierre Strong (Patriots), and Hassan Haskins (Titans). They were 17/70 4.1, 18/41 2.3, 0/0 0.0, and 25/93 3.7 respectively.

Out of 15 or 16 running backs drafted 4th round or later only 3 did anything their rookie year. Dameon Pierce, Tyler Allgeier, and Isiah Pachecco. That is not a strong success rate. So people expecting a day 3 rookie to come in and start are probably going to be disappointed.

Day 2 and very early day 3 is the sweet spot for running backs because the top of the classes have been falling out of the 1st round... that's the reason we see successful "mid round picks" at RB because the top of the class is usually going off the board around 40.

[*psychdoctor*]

Another perspective is choosing a running back that can punish the defense. I think when you look at the offense as a whole it's just not individual players or the plan of attack. It is the combination that wears down the defense. Give me a big young punishing runner that can occasionally catch a pass.

[casear2727]

(02-15-2023, 06:45 PM)Rotobeast Wrote: Give me Deuce Vaughn in the 6th, after prioritizing both lines and a corner.

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He is only 5'6, 170, c'mon beast.  My last 3 girlfriends were taller than this guy.

Spears is just as fast but 5-10 and thick with great hands.  Alchane is even more dynamic, will go way early, and is another short guy at 5-9 but runs a 4.2 something, but again is solidly built.

[casear2727]

(02-15-2023, 07:20 PM)psychdoctor Wrote: Another perspective is choosing a running back that can punish the defense.  I think when you look at the offense as a whole it's just not individual players or the plan of attack. It is the combination that wears down the defense.  Give me a big young punishing runner that can occasionally catch a pass.

Or we could sign Perine and get a change of pace back like Achane or Spears. The new thunder and lightning (only us old guys probably remember...)

[*psychdoctor*]

(02-15-2023, 07:21 PM)casear2727 Wrote: Or we could sign Perine and get a change of pace back like Achane or Spears. The new thunder and lightning for us old guys...

I would love to have perine back as the primary back. He runs angry

[Rotobeast]

(02-15-2023, 07:20 PM)casear2727 Wrote: He is only 5'6, 170, c'mon beast.  My last 3 girlfriends were taller than this guy.

Spears is just as fast but 5-10 and thick with great hands.  Alchane is even more dynamic, will go way early, and is another short guy at 5-9 but runs a 4.2 something, but again is solidly built.

Do you think Spears will be there when we pick in the 6th ?

Wouldn't a smaller target be harder to set your sights on and need a smaller hole to get up field ? He is amazing at catching the ball, too. I wouldn't have considered him either, until I watched his highlights.

I'd be willing to take a shot on Spears though, as well.


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