Uh oh Joe Mixon

[*Synric*]

We hear you can find a running back on day 3 of the draft alot that is because the success rate is higher which is true... but a large reason its true is because how many running backs are drafted on day 3 every year.

In the 2022 NFL draft there was I believe 15 running backs drafted on day 3 and there were 3 that had a solid rookie season that is a very high success rate for the draft. Problem is that's probably 8 to 12 running backs that won't likely do anything in the NFL.

Edit: This is a very deep running back class though but alot of the day 3 guys are very similar outside of special cases like say a Marshall's Khalan Laborn.

[SunsetBengal]

(04-08-2023, 05:58 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: I think it all depends on how you rank your RBs, really. The concept with RB is a little different as they are easier to replace than, say, a QB. For instance, if we try to rank RBs by their efficiency (YPC), you get...

1. Khalil Herbert - 6th round
2. Aaron Jones - 5th round
3. Tony Pollard - 4th round
4. Travis Etienne - 1st round
5. Nick Chubb - 2nd round
6. Rhamondre Stevenson - 4th round
7. Josh Jacobs - 1st round
8. Miles Sanders - 2nd round
9. Tyler Allgeier - 5th round
10. Raheem Mostert - UDFA
    

I would agree that like all other positions, you higher you select, the better your chances are of the guy being good but you can also invest late round picks into RBs and strike gold more often than most other positions, especially if your OL is up to par. 

That kind of makes it difficult for us, doesn't it? Lol.

Who's "we", and why aren't "we" using yards per touch (YPT) to include receiving stats as well as simple stats from handoffs?  Today's NFL requires that a back be much more diverse than just taking the handoff.  I think that to get a true measure of a RBs effectiveness and value in today's league, you likely must also include something that factors in pass blocking efficiency, as it is a pass driven league.

[wanga]

(04-08-2023, 05:26 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: I'm impressed you even know what synopsis means. 

He has sources inside the library. 

[Soonerpeace]

(04-08-2023, 05:26 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: I'm impressed you even know what synopsis means. 

Nice play

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(04-08-2023, 06:12 PM)Synric Wrote: We hear you can find a running back on day 3 of the draft alot that is because the success rate is higher which is true... but a large reason its true is because how many running backs are drafted on day 3 every year.

In the 2022 NFL draft there was I believe 15 running backs drafted on day 3 and there were 3 that had a solid rookie season that is a very high success rate for the draft. Problem is that's probably 8 to 12 running backs that won't likely do anything in the NFL.

Edit: This is a very deep running back class though but alot of the day 3 guys are very similar outside of special cases like say a Marshall's Khalan Laborn.

I sure liked Laborn's film and we were looking at him, so I guess the off the field problems didn't scare us away from at least looking
at him. Laborn is physical, with great strength in his legs to carry DL, he has a nice cut back and can take it the distance. Also can catch
the ball out of the backfield. Should be a late round pick because of his off field problems, I just don't think we want another Mark Walton.

I am liking Tank Bigsby out of Auburn more and more in the 3rd or 4th rounds. He can do it all and pass protect, don't know about Laborn
in this aspect of his game.

(04-08-2023, 06:24 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Who's "we", and why aren't "we" using yards per touch (YPT) to include receiving stats as well as simple stats from handoffs?  Today's NFL requires that a back be much more diverse than just taking the handoff.  I think that to get a true measure of a RBs effectiveness and value in today's league, you likely must also include something that factors in pass blocking efficiency, as it is a pass driven league.

Yes, would like the whole enchilada when measuring a RB's play...

And we are about the most pass oriented Offense in the league. 

[KillerGoose]

(04-08-2023, 06:24 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Who's "we", and why aren't "we" using yards per touch (YPT) to include receiving stats as well as simple stats from handoffs?  Today's NFL requires that a back be much more diverse than just taking the handoff.  I think that to get a true measure of a RBs effectiveness and value in today's league, you likely must also include something that factors in pass blocking efficiency, as it is a pass driven league.

That's a great point. Changing that over to YPT, you would get the following top 10. Min. 100 touches. 

1. D'andre Swift - 2nd round
2. Jerick McKinnon - 3rd round
3. James Cook - 2nd round
4. Tony Pollard - 4th round
5. Chuba Hubbard - 4th round
6. McCaffrey - 1st round
7. Travis Etienne - 1st round
8. Khalil Herbert - 6th round
9. Aaron Jones - 5th round
10. Nick Chubb - 2nd round
    

So, two day one picks, four day two picks, and four day three picks. Austin Ekeler just barely missed out on cracking the top 10. I was expecting him to be here.

[*rfaulk34*]

(04-08-2023, 03:06 PM)Joelist Wrote: I have to think we're going RB early in this draft - earlier than many think.

Well, i'm thinkin 2, so...

[SunsetBengal]

(04-08-2023, 06:44 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: That's a great point. Changing that over to YPT, you would get the following top 10. Min. 100 touches. 

1. D'andre Swift - 2nd round
2. Jerick McKinnon - 3rd round
3. James Cook - 2nd round
4. Tony Pollard - 4th round
5. Chuba Hubbard - 4th round
6. McCaffrey - 1st round
7. Travis Etienne - 1st round
8. Khalil Herbert - 6th round
9. Aaron Jones - 5th round
10. Nick Chubb - 2nd round
    

So, two day one picks, four day two picks, and four day three picks. Austin Ekeler just barely missed out on cracking the top 10. I was expecting him to be here.

If you factor in TDs/touch + YPT, I'd be willing to bet he's right near the top of all.  Don't understand how these measuring systems haven't moved to a double and triple determinate values to compile a total score, similar to QBR.

[*Go Cards*]

(04-08-2023, 05:58 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: I think it all depends on how you rank your RBs, really. The concept with RB is a little different as they are easier to replace than, say, a QB. For instance, if we try to rank RBs by their efficiency (YPC), you get...

1. Khalil Herbert - 6th round
2. Aaron Jones - 5th round
3. Tony Pollard - 4th round
4. Travis Etienne - 1st round
5. Nick Chubb - 2nd round
6. Rhamondre Stevenson - 4th round
7. Josh Jacobs - 1st round
8. Miles Sanders - 2nd round
9. Tyler Allgeier - 5th round
10. Raheem Mostert - UDFA
    

I would agree that like all other positions, you higher you select, the better your chances are of the guy being good but you can also invest late round picks into RBs and strike gold more often than most other positions, especially if your OL is up to par. 

That kind of makes it difficult for us, doesn't it? Lol.

Agree and am on record so many times as saying that RB's and WR's are the easiest to find in the draft that are NFL ready. 

But would add that you named 7 players that were not on my list, of those you brought to the table, 

they averaged 200 carries a year compared to 276 average of mine listed.  Also mine averaged 9.75 TD's a season compared to 5.7 of the new ones you added. So if we drop one of mine to make it 7 against 7 against yours added, on average it would be 1,292 more carries and 28 more TD's a year.  

So for example  lets take Swift who is #1 on your list compared to Henry who did not make your list

Swift..........99 -542.. yds..5 TD's ..........or
Herbert.....129 -731...yds...4TD's are more valuable to their team than

Henry..... 349 -1,538 yds 13 TD's ........?

Pretty sure Henry was facing stacked boxes all day long with the defenses personnel geared toward stopping the run solely. Plus Herberts team only won 3 games and was never even in the race and certainly he got some easy yards against defenses with big leads that were willing to give up rushing yards to prevent home run balls being thrown. Not saying he is bad by any means but don't think he was more valuable to his team last year than the ones I listed. Maybe next year he will be though.

Anyway really do agree with your analogy mostly and thank you for adding, but don't believe it tells the whole story as mere stats never do.

Enjoy your posts even though you may think I don't. You bring much to the table that is very useful. 

Sorry had to edit missed Swift, oops seen you edited Swift in recently. Now have both your #1 listed in comparison and thinking Swift would bring their average carries below 200 a year too

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(04-08-2023, 08:04 PM)Go Cards Wrote: Agree and am on record so many times as saying that RB's and WR's are the easiest to find in the draft that are NFL ready. 

But would add that you named 7 players that were not on my list, of those you brought to the table, 

they averaged 200 carries a year compared to 276 average of mine listed.  Also mine averaged 9.75 TD's a season compared to 5.7 of the new ones you added. So if we drop one of mine to make it 7 against 7 against yours added, on average it would be 1,292 more carries and 28 more TD's a year.  

So for example  lets take Swift who is #1 on your list

Swift..........99 -542.. yds..5 TD's ..........is more valuable to his team than
Henry..... 349-1,538 yds 13 TD's ........?

Pretty sure Henry was facing stacked boxes all day long with the defenses personnel geared toward stopping the run solely. Plus Herberts team only won 3 games and was never even in the race and certainly he got some easy yards against defenses with big leads that were willing to give up rushing yards to prevent home run balls being thrown. Not saying he is bad by any means but don't think he was more valuable to his team last year than the ones I listed. Maybe next year he will be though.

Anyway really do agree with your analogy and thank you for adding, but don't believe it tells the whole story as mere stats never do.

Enjoy your posts even though you may think I don't. You bring much to the table that is very useful. 

Nice post Go Cards. I like perspective as well, good job. And all class as usual.

BTW, been seeing a lot of negative stuff about Mixon around even from people in the Bengals circle after this recharge...

I would be crazy surprised if Mixon isn't designated a June 1st cut after the Draft and us adding a couple RB's....

Tyjae Spears and Laborn late sure would be a couple great talents to add.

[*Go Cards*]

(04-08-2023, 08:17 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Nice post Go Cards. I like perspective as well, good job. And all class as usual.

BTW, been seeing a lot of negative stuff about Mixon around even from people in the Bengals circle after this recharge...

I would be crazy surprised if Mixon isn't designated a June 1st cut after the Draft and us adding a couple RB's....

Tyjae Spears and Laborn late sure would be a couple great talents to add.

Would be happy with either and you know I love Charbonnet as well

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(04-08-2023, 04:48 PM)Soonerpeace Wrote: Joe is 6.1 220 lbs. Physically he’s as capable as 90% of the running backs in the NFL. But sometimes he blocks low when he should stay upright. Sometimes he doesn’t pick up the expected blitz and slow to react. He’s just not very good. Perine was much better but they needed to get Joe breathers any way and they liked their formula. Hope that helps.

That’s like saying a 6’4”, 315 lbs Adeniji is as physically capable as a 6’6”, 278 lbs Munoz based upon height and weight. Or 90% of the OTs in the league.

[Soonerpeace]

(04-08-2023, 09:26 PM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: That’s like saying a 6’4”, 315 lbs Adeniji is as physically capable as a 6’6”, 278 lbs Munoz based upon height and weight. Or 90% of the OTs in the league.

Ding ding ding winner winner chicken dinner he’s not very good.

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(04-08-2023, 09:57 PM)Soonerpeace Wrote: Ding ding ding winner winner chicken dinner he’s not very good.

So blocking is 90% height and weight?

Did you double check with your friend who isn’t in the building for his opinion before answering?

[Mike M (the other one)]

(04-08-2023, 04:46 PM)Eraserhead Wrote: Speaking of the coaches, tell me this,, how much do the coaches trust their 12m back in critical moments?

Not as much as they trust Burrow and who wouldn't??

[*bfine32*]

(04-08-2023, 11:50 PM)Mike M (the other one) Wrote: Not as much as they trust Burrow and who wouldn't??

Who is Who Wouldn't?

[Mike M (the other one)]

(04-09-2023, 12:06 AM)bfine32 Wrote: Who is Who Wouldn't?

Anyone with half a brain....

[Bengalstripes9]

(04-08-2023, 05:02 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: It's not a moot point, it's the point exactly.  Do the Bengals want a 3 down featured back that enables them to run the entire playbook without having to use a sub, or do they want to continue to telegraph what's coming by personnel package?  And, Samaje Perine was more than just the 3rd down/change of pace back last year.  He also came in for entire possessions, even when Mixon was healthy.

I agree with your thinking here.

As I stated during the season (before they switched to running primarily shotgun and were losing), shotgun is by far their most effective formation. I even made a thread about how they should primarily use shotgun. Then they started to run primarily shotgun. Then they started winning.

They run the ball best out of shotgun because it keeps the defense off balance and they don’t see the run coming. Joe is able to get the ball out quicker. It’s our most efficient and effective formation.

We are too predictable when Mixon comes in and we use a run formation.

Perine was the more effective back because he was great in shotgun, protected well, ran good routes, was a decisive runner, etc.

This team can vastly improve by letting Mixon go and drafting a dynamic running back that can run great routes, catch, YAC, and be an explosive runner.

An explosive shotgun running back would set this offense to new heights.

This is why I would be thrilled if we took a dynamic RB in round 1 or 2.

Yes you can get one later, but unless there is a lineman you can’t pass up on or really good corner or something, I’d love to see a dynamic RB added. We’ve been very successful in the second round drafting running backs. We need two after cutting Mixon so you get another one late for insurance.

[Soonerpeace]

(04-08-2023, 10:15 PM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: So blocking is 90% height and weight?

Did you double check with your friend who isn’t in the building for his opinion before answering?

Obviously not or he’d be better but thanks for playing

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(04-09-2023, 12:42 AM)Soonerpeace Wrote: Obviously not or he’d be better but thanks for playing

You’re the one who suggested it. Or care to explain what you meant by , , ,

(04-08-2023, 04:48 PM)Soonerpeace Wrote: Joe is 6.1 220 lbs. Physically he’s as capable as 90% of the running backs in the NFL. But sometimes he blocks low when he should stay upright. Sometimes he doesn’t pick up the expected blitz and slow to react. He’s just not very good. Perine was much better but they needed to get Joe breathers any way and they liked their formula. Hope that helps.

So he sucks at pass protection, but he is just as physically capable of pass protection as 90% of NFL backs because he is 6’1” and 220 lbs? What is that supposed to mean?