Reds April 2023 Games Thread

[*bengalfan74*]

13-0 wow

Will Myers after looking like hot garbage so far has a great day at the plate, cool. And Senzel has played 3 games now and hasn't went back on the DL yet. Things are looking up, a bit.

[TecmoBengals]

[CJD]

Don't look now, but Graham Ashcroft has 3 quality starts in 3 games, has a 1.42 ERA, 17 Ks in 19 innings, a 1.16 WHIP and is second in all of baseball (both hitters and pitchers) in WAR, with 1.3.

It's early, but he seems to be in the midst of a break out season after an extremely promising (but inconsistent) rookie year that may have been negatively affected by coming back from an injury at the end of the season.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

Couldn't think of anything more predictable than the Reds getting blown out the day after winning 12-0. Cessa is going to kill the already crappy bullpen, 3.2 IP last start, 3.0 IP this start.

[*bengalfan74*]

(04-16-2023, 05:21 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Couldn't think of anything more predictable than the Reds getting blown out the day after winning 12-0. Cessa is going to kill the already crappy bullpen, 3.2 IP last start, 3.0 IP this start.

I think it's time to pull the plug on the Cessa as a starter experiment. Yes it's still way early but: 3 games, 12 innings pitched, 25 hits and yes that's not a typo he's gave up twenty five hits!! 18 runs, 13.50 ERA, opponents are batting .417 against him.

Please stop the bleeding, Bell

[guyofthetiger]

Back to the drawing board.

[*bengalfan74*]

(04-16-2023, 11:53 PM)guyofthetiger Wrote: Back to the drawing board.

On the pitching staff, for sure!

I'm trying hard to hold out hope that Overton can at least make a decent #5. He showed some promise last year. But it's fading fast. Cessa? I'm afraid that ship has sailed. Not sure who they can put in but something needs done fast if this continues?

Greene?? He didn't look all that great in first two starts. Was better in 3rd start but still has 5.14 ERA and only 14 innings pitched in 3 games. 

What little bit of pitching we have in Bullpen is gonna be wore out before June gets here if this keeps up.

[Goalpost]

Andrew Abbott is 23 and was a second round pick in 2021. He pitches in AA. So far, in 10 innings he has allowed 2 hits, 0 runs, 1 walk, and has struck out 25. The 'Cowboy' was mentioning him yesterday on the radio.

[cinci4life]

8-1 win over the Rays in the series opener!!!

[kevin]

So Reds have a chance to Win series with Tampa. Their best chance is Tuesday with Lodolo. So far Reds have not lost a Home Series. That would be a big improvement over last years April if they can avoid losing a home series this April. Could help getting Fans and Money back to games in May and June and July.

[*bengalfan74*]

(04-17-2023, 05:39 PM)Goalpost Wrote: Andrew Abbott is 23 and was a second round pick in 2021.  He pitches in AA.  So far, in 10 innings he has allowed 2 hits, 0 runs, 1 walk, and has struck out 25.  The 'Cowboy' was mentioning him yesterday on the radio.

I hope they bring him up. They can't survive much more of Cessa.

I have no delusions that this team is in any way a contender. But I would like to see a team playing some competitive baseball. I'd be happy around .500 Hell I might even go catch a game?

[*bengalfan74*]

(04-18-2023, 12:46 AM)kevin Wrote: So Reds have a chance to Win series with Tampa.  Their best chance is Tuesday with Lodolo.   So far Reds have not lost a Home Series.  That would be a big improvement over last years April if they can avoid losing a home series this April.  Could help getting Fans and Money back to games in May and June and July.

Granted it was cold but that place was empty yesterday.

[CJD]

Interesting news today, the Reds extended Hunter Greene through the end of the 2028 season with a 6 year 53M dollar extension.

The value is good, with Hunter Greene expected to be much better than a typical 10M AAV pitcher like a 36 year old Corey Kluber (10 M) or Michael Lorenzen. (8.5 M)

The thing I don't understand is that this extension doesn't start next year, or once he enters arbitration. It starts RIGHT NOW. Meaning he just got an 8 million dollar raise for this year and next year, as he was currently making just 730,000 dollars this year. He'd likely make something very similar next year and then in 2025 he'd enter arbitration where he'd start getting paid based on his production for 3 years. Those salaries likely would have started somewhere around 5M in arb 1, going up to maybe 11 to 15 million in arb 3, depending on how well he was producing.

For a comparison, Shane Bieber is a career 3.16 ERA pitcher who just entered his second year of arbitration. He made 545k, 559k and 623k in his 3 pre-arb years, 6 million in arb 1 and is now making 10 million in arb 2 coming off of a 3.6 WAR, 2.88 ERA, 13-8, 200 IP, 1.04 WHIP season.

Hunter Greene would need to be all star/Cy Young level to match Bieber's results, but will end up making about 44 million over his pre-arb 2 through arb 3 seasons, whereas Bieber will have only made 17.7 million over 5 seasons from pre-arb 1 to arb 2.

And, in exchange for this huge up front payment and raise in the previously assumed cost controlled years of pre-arbitration, Greene is giving the Reds 1 additional year of control and a 21 million dollar option in 2029 that has a 2 million dollar buy out.

Gotta say...The Reds seem to have gotten fleeced on this one haha...They gave up a lot of money up front and only got 1 year of additional control (and 1 expensive option year) in exchange.

Hunter Greene is going to have to be an annual all star and Cy Young candidate to justify this contract extension, imo.

[*bengalfan74*]

(04-18-2023, 07:23 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Interesting news today, the Reds extended Hunter Greene through the end of the 2028 season with a 6 year 53M dollar extension.

The value is good, with Hunter Greene expected to be much better than a typical 10M AAV pitcher like a 36 year old Corey Kluber (10 M) or Michael Lorenzen. (8.5 M)

The thing I don't understand is that this extension doesn't start next year, or once he enters arbitration. It starts RIGHT NOW. Meaning he just got an 8 million dollar raise for this year and next year, as he was currently making just 730,000 dollars this year. He'd likely make something very similar next year and then in 2025 he'd enter arbitration where he'd start getting paid based on his production for 3 years. Those salaries likely would have started somewhere around 5M in arb 1, going up to maybe 11 to 15 million in arb 3, depending on how well he was producing.

For a comparison, Shane Bieber is a career 3.16 ERA pitcher who just entered his second year of arbitration. He made 545k, 559k and 623k in his 3 pre-arb years, 6 million in arb 1 and is now making 10 million in arb 2 coming off of a 3.6 WAR, 2.88 ERA, 13-8, 200 IP, 1.04 WHIP season.

Hunter Greene would need to be all star/Cy Young level to match Bieber's results, but will end up making about 44 million over his pre-arb 2 through arb 3 seasons, whereas Bieber will have only made 17.7 million over 5 seasons from pre-arb 1 to arb 2.

And, in exchange for this huge up front payment and raise in the previously assumed cost controlled years of pre-arbitration, Greene is giving the Reds 1 additional year of control and a 21 million dollar option in 2029 that has a 2 million dollar buy out.

Gotta say...The Reds seem to have gotten fleeced on this one haha...They gave up a lot of money up front and only got 1 year of additional control (and 1 expensive option year) in exchange.

Hunter Greene is going to have to be an annual all star and Cy Young candidate to justify this contract extension, imo.

Reds mgmt. is gonna be Reds mgmt. Geezzzz

[CJD]

(04-18-2023, 07:28 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Reds mgmt. is gonna be Reds mgmt. Geezzzz

Everyone on social media and Locked On Reds are saying this is a great deal, so maybe I'm the one who doesn't know what they're talking about haha. I'm just trying to make sense of the numbers and they don't make sense to me right now.

[*bengalfan74*]

(04-18-2023, 07:44 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Everyone on social media and Locked On Reds are saying this is a great deal, so maybe I'm the one who doesn't know what they're talking about haha. I'm just trying to make sense of the numbers and they don't make sense to me right now.

I guess if you assume Greene is going to be a perennial all star, it's good. But at this point in his career, that's a big assumption. 

[kevin]

Reds took game one, but Rays took game two. Rasmussen is pretty good and I think Reds had to call up a minor league pitcher for game 3.

Could be first home series Reds lose. Tampa is the hottest team in MLB so far this season. I've said that I like how Tampa puts a team together every year without the huge contracts but puts up Wins on Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Orioles. I would hate to see Reds in that division, they would get clobbered, and why I always say Reds could learn from Tampa on how to do contracts and put a baseball team together each year. Tampa would have never made The Moose deal and spent that much on The Moose as the Reds did, and Reds still paying him Mega Millions to play for another team is the front office nonsense that holds Reds back.

Tampa beating Reds is an up close look by Reds to see how smarter Tampa does it in a small market and still lays losses on Yankees and AL East. Reds could learn a thing or two from Tampa front office who can beat Yankees on a much lower budget.

I'm hearing rumblings of a new Hunter Greene contract. I hope it wasn't too much, because he hasn't even proved he belongs in the major leagues yet. He has yet to establish himself. Talk before the season that Hunter was one of the best in baseball is a good use of the words Over Rated. I hope the Reds Owners crying that they have no money and may have to move out of Cincinnati, did not spend a fortune on resigning Hunter Greene who still looks like a minor league pitcher most of the time. He is young, he could become good, but he still looks like a minor leaguer trying to learn how to pitch in The Big League. So I hope they didn't make a huge contract, which Reds do way too much.

[guyofthetiger]

Hunter Greene contract is bad IMO. Not a fan of long term pitching contracts. If he gets hurt, there she blows. I personally have not been impressed by him yet. I hope he turns it around.

[kevin]

(04-19-2023, 12:10 AM)guyofthetiger Wrote: Hunter Greene contract is bad IMO. Not a fan of long term pitching contracts. If he gets hurt, there she blows. I personally have not been impressed by him yet. I hope he turns it around.

Greene had major injuries in Minors and in his start in the Majors.  Plus he gave up a ton of home runs his rookie year.  

Was he up for free agency ?  That would be hard to imagine with him just up from the Minors.  If Reds didn't have to do this now, then it is a dumb move, because he is still like a rookie who is still getting clobbered by Major League hitters.  Reds sure throw mega millions around for ownership and GM always crying that they have such little money that they may have to move out of Cincinnati. 

[kevin]

As I expected, Rasmussen mowed down Reds hitters with ease. So Tampa wins series. Still, it's only the first home series loss by Reds. Reds TV spent a lot of time hyping the Hunter Greene long term deal until 2029. I hope it works out. In Fantasy I didn't want Hunter Greene, I had him last year and he gave up too many homers. Greene and Lodolo went way too early in Fantasy drafts for me, too may other good pitchers were on the board as these two went way too early. Now Ashcraft I got after the draft, nobody drafted him. So far I like Lodolo and Ashcraft more than Greene. Reds have been coming up the losers on their long term deals, so I hope Greene does work out for them.

Tampa came in hottest team in MLB, so I thought this would be a hard home series, and it was. At least Reds won one of the games.