A Serious Draft Question

[OSUfan]

 Ok, so I know that many Bengals fan seem to be opposed to trading down yet according to many sources that grade players for a living there are only anywhere from 17 to 20 prospects in the class of '23 that have garnered a 1st round grade. Given this information why would someone be opposed to trading down and acquiring capital over drafting a player in the 1st round that does not have a 1st round grade but pay them 1st round money?

[*ochocincos*]

(04-07-2023, 12:06 PM)OSUfan Wrote:  Ok, so I know that many Bengals fan seem to be opposed to trading down yet according to many sources that grade players for a living there are only anywhere from 17 to 20 prospects in the class of '23 that have garnered a 1st round grade. Given this information why would someone be opposed to trading down and acquiring capital over drafting a player in the 1st round that does not have a 1st round grade but pay them 1st round money?

I'm not opposed to trading down, for two reasons:
1) Don't reach for a player because of need. That's how you end up with Billy Price (although it's possible Pollack/Marvin/Tobin actually had a 1st round grade on him) after your actual guy (Ragnow) goes right before you pick.
2) Bengals still have quite a few areas they could upgrade (mainly depth/future), so any extra Rd 2-4 picks, the better

However, to answer your question, someone might choose to draft a player in late Rd 1 even if they don't have a 1st round grade because:
1) The difference in money between Pick 28 and Pick 38, for example, is relatively small. ($3.2 mill APY for Pick 28 last year vs $2.2 mill APY for Pick 38 last year).
2) You get the 5th year option if you wanna use it
3) You're not risking potentially having that player taken before you pick next if you trade back

[depthchart]

(04-07-2023, 12:06 PM)OSUfan Wrote:  Ok, so I know that many Bengals fan seem to be opposed to trading down yet according to many sources that grade players for a living there are only anywhere from 17 to 20 prospects in the class of '23 that have garnered a 1st round grade. Given this information why would someone be opposed to trading down and acquiring capital over drafting a player in the 1st round that does not have a 1st round grade but pay them 1st round money?

.

I think it hinges on who your Target player or players are and how convinced you are that they will perform to a satisfactory level.

If you want RB Bijan Robinson or Tackle Darnell Wright and you have pick #28 then you likely have to Trade up to get them.

Once on the Clock at pick #28, the Bengals can see exactly which players have slipped to them and decide if a player or two that are still available have a good chance of slipping down further. Then look for a trade partner to Trade down to a spot where they still feel they have a strong shot to get a targeted player.

Teams seem to show trade interest in the first few picks of round number 2, so the Bengals could trade down to say the first pick of round two and then trade down again and not be too far removed from Pick #28.

I would not be opposed to considering all options at all times while weighing the Pros and Cons of each option.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

Yes, have to keep your options open if Darnell Wright isn't there or some insane BPA doesn't fall to 28.

I am for trading down more than anything it this happens, you can still get the same player most likely and add a pick.

There is tons of value early in the 2nd round.

[OSUfan]

There are always going to be players that are valued differently from team to team or scheme to scheme and those players could easily have a 1st round grade to one team but not another. I think given this you could safely raise first round graded players to a number somewhere in the 25 player range. Still, being at the end of the first adds some merit to the value of trading down.

[Whatever]

Personally, I'm a fan of Lance Zierlein's grades for the NFL Combine site. This year, he has 28 prospects graded a 6.4 or higher, with a 6.40-6.49 grade translating to "Will become a good starter within two years". He then has 31 prospects with a 6.30-6.39 grade, translating to "Will eventually become a plus starter". I would say, at least in his opinion, the 28 spot is actually the end of that first major cutoff.

That's not to say a trade down should be off the table. You have to look at the offer and who's there on your board. Should we necessarily be looking to trade down? Personally, trade downs tend to work out when you're going to throw multiple draft picks at a single position group. For example, we had the Devon Still/Brandon Thompson draft after we traded down and Carl Lawson came from a draft where we traded down and double dipped at Edge.

[*Go Cards*]

(04-07-2023, 01:39 PM)depthchart Wrote: .

I think it hinges on who your Target player or players are and how convinced you are that they will perform to a satisfactory level.

If you want RB Bijan Robinson or Tackle Darnell Wright and you have pick #28 then you likely have to Trade up to get them.

Once on the Clock at pick #28, the Bengals can see exactly which players have slipped to them and decide if a player or two that are still available have a good chance of slipping down further. Then look for a trade partner to Trade down to a spot where they still feel they have a strong shot to get a targeted player.

Teams seem to show trade interest in the first few picks of round number 2, so the Bengals could trade down to say the first pick of round two and then trade down again and not be too far removed from Pick #28.

I would not be opposed to considering all options at all times while weighing the Pros and Cons of each option.

This

 Yet usually somebody does fall through the cracks. It's just whether the Bengals have interest in that player or not. 

Not opposed to trading back if the Bengals have no interest in players available. Think somebody will still be there though. 

[CJD]

There are only like 3 players that I would take rather than trading down. Darnell Wright, Calijah Kancey and Bijan Robinson (who I don't expect to be there).

If they can get good value to move down 5 or 6 spots, I say go for it (assuming those 3 are gone).

[sandwedge]

I don't see the Bengals trading down

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

It’s all cost benefit. Does the benefit of trading back out weigh the cost of sticking and picking. That will be dependent upon each individual situation.

[Essex Johnson]

(04-07-2023, 12:06 PM)OSUfan Wrote:  Ok, so I know that many Bengals fan seem to be opposed to trading down yet according to many sources that grade players for a living there are only anywhere from 17 to 20 prospects in the class of '23 that have garnered a 1st round grade. Given this information why would someone be opposed to trading down and acquiring capital over drafting a player in the 1st round that does not have a 1st round grade but pay them 1st round money?

The only grades that really matter are the Bengals... i don;t buy that much in the grading of players where a .1 to .3 might move you 20 spots... just can;t see the idea that a draft only have 20 start on first day type players..not with the depth of talent it seems coming out of colleges.

Im fine trading back if any of our players the bengals rated in 1st round are gone..but if Bengals rate a player  higher than draft experts , Bengals should go with their evaluation

[OSUfan]

(04-08-2023, 10:04 PM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: It’s all cost benefit. Does the benefit of trading back out weigh the cost of sticking and picking. That will be dependent upon each individual situation.

100% agree!