Mock Roundup & Draft Tiers: Realistic Options at #28

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

Greetings all! Under 1 week until Round 1.

With us drafting at #28, I tried to put the players into tiers.

Tier 1: Players I'd love but think there is no way they fall to us.
Tier 2: Players I'd love to take at #28 that MIGHT be there.
Tier 3: Players who are viable late 1st Rd picks, but I don't love. Trade down territory.

The Tiers, initially:

Tier 1: 14
QB (4): Young, Stroud, Richardson, Levis.
DE/Edge (3): Anderson, Wilson, N. Smith
DT/NT (1): Carter
CB (3): Witherspoon, Gonzalez, Porter
OT (3): Skoronski, Johnson, B. Jones

Obviously, we have no interest in a QB, even if they did fall. And I am wary of Carter, I think he lacks the drive to be great/love of the game. But it is moot, he won't there at #28. Smith is an OLB type and a poor scheme fit here, but as an situational rusher I still could do it. The other 8 would have me doing backflips.

Tier 2: 11
RB (1): Robinson
WR (2): Smith-Njigba, Flowers
TE (2): Mayer, Kincaid
OT (1): Wright
DE/Edge (2): Van Ness, Murphy
DT/NT (1): Kancey
CB (2): Forbes, Banks

That is 25 guys. So it is possible they all could be gone by #28.

I then tried/am trying to scour the net for mock drafts to see if my tiers are realistic or not. Do we really have no shot at my Tier 1 guys? How often are the Tier 2 guys actually available? How often does Trade Down Territory happen?

I concentrated in 3 sites (ESPN, NFL.com, and CBS Sports) and came up with 20 mocks. I am not finished yet (14 of 20 done). But the early findings (ESPN (3) + NFL Network (11)) yielded the following so far.

Tier 1 availability: None for non-QBs. 1 where Richardson fell, 2 for Levis.

Tier 2 availability: always at least 1 guy on the board. Though sometimes it is ONLY 1-2. 4 times with one, 5 with two. Some guys (Robinson, JSN, Van Ness, Flowers) have yet to be available.

Of the 14 mocks so far, availabilty for each of the 7 available at least once: Forbes 11 (picked once), Mayer 6 (3 picks), Murphy 4 (no picks), Banks 3 (1 pick), Kancey 3 (no picks), Wright 2 (2 picks), Kincaid 2 (2 picks). Of the two Wright mocks, one was from March, and one was non-predictive (Frelund's model for added wins for what each team SHOULD do).

5 out of 14 times, they had us taking Tier 3 players: Bresee, Brents, Harrison, Washington, and Musgrave.

The magic number of Tier 3 guys we need picked to guarantee Tier 2 availabilty (assuming Richardson & Levis go) is 3. Addison, Johnston, Branch, Hooker, and Torrence are the most common Tier 3 guys mocked before #28 so far.

I will update with more data after I add the CBS drafts to get to 20. I'd expect most/all of them to get updated once more before draft day. I also may add a couple more to get to 25. Still, early returns suggest my Tiers were pretty solid, though I tad optimistic in some guys falling to us.

YMMV on the Tiers, however.

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

I did finish my roundup at ESPN, NFL.COM, and CBS.

In the 20 mocks covered, only one non QB Tier 1 player (OLB Nolan Smith), fell to 28. He did so 4 times out of 20, but all thise were CBS Sports mocks, and frankly, I put the least amount of faith in those. Accordingly, I moved N. Snith to Tier 2.

Here is the breakdown of who we picked:

Tier 1: 0 picks
Tier 2: 14 picks: Mayer (5 picks), Forbes (2), Wright (2), Kincaid (2), Kancey (1), Banks (1), N. Smith (1).
Tier 3: 6 picks: Washington (1), LaPorta (1), Musgrave (1), Brents (1), Bresee (1), Harrison (1).

Tier 1 Breakdown: Player, Top 27%, Range, Avg (in top 27), Most Common
1. Young, 20/20, 100%, 1-3, 1.4, 1st
2. Stroud, 20/20, 100%, 1-11, 2.35, 2nd
3. Anderson, 20/20, 100%, 2-6, 3.6, 3rd
4. Wilson, 30/20, 100%, 3-11, 5.5, 5th
5. Carter, 20/20, 100%, 5-10, 5.95, 5th
6. Richardson, 19/20, 95%, 1-20 (+ >28 once), 6.05, 4th
7. Gonzalez, 20/20, 100%, 6-16, 9.05, tie 7th & 8th
8. Witherspoon, 20/20, 100%, 4-15, 9.15, 14th
9. Skoronski, 20/20, 100%, 7-20, 10.1, 9th
10. Levis, 18/20, 90%, 2-19 (+ 2 >28), 8.83, 4th
11. Johnson, 20/20, 100%, 7-19, 13.05, tie 9th, 11th, 13th
12. B. Jones: 20/20, 100%, 11-19, 14.8, 13th
13. Porter: 20/20, 100%, 14-24, 18.05, 16th

Again, none of these guys are gonna be an option for us. Zero out of 20 mocks have any of them availavle at 27, save for 2 that has Levis & 1 that had Richardson. We win't take them anyway & one of those mocks were BPA/board mocks that did not take need/predictions into account. Other than Skoronski getting to 20 once (someone is a short arm truther), Porter is the only one who gets to 20.

So what can we learn? For Darnell Wright hopefuls, it becomes pretty apoarent where the top OL prospects go most often. 9th (Chicago), 11th (Tennessee), and 13th (Jets). If you are rooting for OL to slide, then hope for developments at 9 (Carter slides?), 11 (QB available?), or 13th (Jets give up 1st in Packers trade or trade down in oreparation for it).

FWIW, 14th (NE), 17th (Pittsburgh), and 19th (Tampa) are also popular OL landing spots.

My tier 2 guys, whi I think will/should be gone when we pick but really would be great if they weren't consist of 12 guys: Robinson (RB), Smith-Njigba (WR), Flowers (WR), Kincaid (TE), Mayer (TE), Wright (OT), Van Ness (DE/DL), N. Smith (OLB/Edge), Murphy (DE), Kancey (DT), Forbes (CB), and Banks (CB).

In these 20 mocks, at least 1 of these guys was available every single time. But, the streak ended as I saw this morning that ESPN's Miller had all 25 of my Tier 1 & 2 guys gone, + Hooker & Johnston, before we picked. He had us taking DJ Turner. I'd be in trade down mode at that point.

Tier 2 Breakdown. 3 players never made it to us at 28. Van Ness (24th), Robinson (27th), and Smith-Njigba (22nd). All the others fell to us at least once. Here is the breakdown.

Rank, Player, Top 27%, Range, Avd when in 27, Most Common, # Bengals
14. Van Ness, 20/20, 100%, 6-24, 13.15, 10th, zero
15. Smith-Njigba, 20/20, 100%, 9-22, 14.9, 12th, zero
16. Robinson, 20/20, 100%, 8-27, 17.0, 10th, zero
17. Flowers, 19/20, 95%, 15-27 (+ 1 >28), 22.37, 25th, zero
18. Wright, 17/20, 85%, 9-28 (+ 1 >28), 16.88, 19th, TWICE
19. Kincaid, 17/20, 85%, 15-28 (+1 >28), 19.24, 15th, TWICE
20. Banks, 17/20, 85%, 16-28 (+2 > 28), 19.88, 17th, ONCE
21. N. Smith, 16/20, 80%, 8-28 (+3 >28), 13.88, tie 10th & 12th, ONCE
22. Murphy, 14/20, 70%, 8-27 (+6 >28), 17.0, tie 20th & 24th, zero
23. Kancey, 11/20, 55%, 6-28 (+8 >28), 19.91, 18th, ONCE
24. Mayer, 9/20, 45%, 15-28 (+5 >28), 24.78, 28th, FIVE
25. Forbes, 5/20, 25%, 22-28 (+14 > 28), 23.2, TWICE (1 at 24)

It looks to me like the Milker mock scenario, where all the Tier 2 guys are gone before we pick, is becoming more & more likely. Wright makes it to #28 3 times, but 2 were in March mocks. Flowers is gaining buzz as the #2 WR behind JAN, whose pro day erased all doubts about him falling. Van Ness & Robinson never make it to us, and neither does N. Smith outside the CBS bubble. Banks is also gaining steam.

Kincaid is picking up steam as TE1 to GB at 15, and intel suggests Mayer won't get by Dallas at 26 if Kincaid is gone. Numerically, Murphy, Kancey, Mayer, & Firbes are the best bets. Mayer is covered already. Kancey & Forbes are rising, and Murphy is all around solid with a great motor and 40 time.

We need 3 giys from tier 3 to get called before 28 to guarantee us a Tier 2 player. The most common names are two WRs: Addison (17/20) and Johnston (12/20). Only 2 WRs before 28 would be pretty unusual. Hyatt is picked prior to 28 5/20. The more WRs taken, the better! One mock even had Downs going.

Brian Branch also went top 27 12 times out if 20, matching Johnston..The two next most common, G Torrence (9/20) and QB Hooker (8/20). Hyatt's 5/20 and DT Bresee (4/20) are the next most common.

3 times: Sanders (LB), Simpson (LB), Smith (CB), Gibbs (RB), Schmitz ©.
2 times: Washington (TE), LaPorta (TE), Harrison (OT), Mauch (OL), M. Smith (DT), Avila (OG).
1 time: Downs (WR), Musgrave (TE), Bergeron (OT), Tippman (OC), White (DL), Adebewore (DL), Turner (CB).

We need 3.

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

A lot of them will get revised prior to draft day. And I will likely add 5 more. Miller's at ESPN. 1 more guru from 4 letter. Maybe a couple more (SI, Cincy Jungle, our mick, Bengals.com, etc).

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

ESPN has an analytics tool that dies what I was attempting here.

You can select a player & it will show you the % he is picked at, ir available at, different positions.

https://www.espnsportsanalytics.com/nfl-draft/

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

Nice work Ike, interesting to say the least. Warming up to Gibbs the closer we get to Draft night.

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

(04-25-2023, 06:17 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Nice work Ike, interesting to say the least. Warming up to Gibbs the closer we get to Draft night.

Me, too. 

OK, there have been a bevy of updates to the mocks last night & tonight. A couple of mocks on NFL.com are March/early April, but were analytics based (Frelund) or a "should do" draft, so I am not sure they get updated, as late breaking news/rumors does not inpact them. 

There was some small movement in Tiers as a result. 

Tier 1  5. Never Falls to #28 but would love them + 4 QBs we don't want. 

QB: Young, Stroud, Levis, Richardson 
DE/Edge: Anderson, Wilson, N. Smith, Van Ness 
DT: Carter 
CB: Witherspoon, Gonzalez 
OT: Johnson, Skoronski, B. Jones 
WR: Smith-Njigba 

Tier 2 = 11. They fall to #28 at least once; Be happy to take them if there. 

RB: Robinson, Gibbs 
WR: Flowers 
TE: Mayer, Kincaid  
OT: Wright 
DE: Murphy 
DT: Kancey 
CB: Forbes, Banks, Porter  

That is 26 players. It is possible for them all to go before we pick at #28, bit it did not happen in ANY if the mocks I tracked. Instances of how many of the 11 were available at #28: 

0: Zero 
1: Twice (Gibbs both times) 
2: Five times 
3: Eight times 
4: Three times 
5: Three times 

For the record, I call an instance of all of my top 22 (and the 4 QBs) being gonexas Trade down territory. Despite this not happening once, the mocks did take guys in Trade Down Territory (Tier 3), multiple times.

Here is breakdown, by Tier, of the 21 Bengaks selections: 

Tier 1: Zero (by definition)
Tier 2: 14
Tier 3: 6 
No pick/trade down: 1

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

As for Individual players ESPN, CBS, NFL.com mocked to us, it broke doen like this, by Tier:

Tier 1: none
Tier 2: 15: Gibbs 6, Mayer 4, Wright 1, Forbes 1, Kincaid 1, Porter 1
Tier 3: 6. Brents 2, Harrison 1, Turner 1, Tippman 1, Benton 1

By position: RB 6. TE 5, CB 5, OT 2, DT 1, C 1.

How many times did agree with the pick? Twice. Once with Wright (Frelund) with Forbes & Gibbs there. Once on Forbes (Trepasso) with Murphy & Givbs there.

I thought 3 picks were borderline stupid, and 4 that were over the line.

Borderline was both times we picked Brents. Once by Kiper/McShay with Murphy & Gibbs available, once by Wilson at NFL.com with Gibbs there. And the Turner pick by Miller at ESPN with Gibbs there. I think both are reaches for CB4s when higher rated guys are on the board. Especially Turner.

The 4 outright dumb ones? 4th: Brioks at NFL.com taking Harrison (who will need a year) with Kancey, Forbes, and Givbs on the board. 3rd dumbest? Brinson at CBS taking Tippman with Kancey, Forbes, Murphy, Kincaid, and Gibbs on the board. 2nd? Jeremiah at NFL.com taking Benton with Wright!, Murphy, & Gibbs on the board. However, the Dunce Cap goes to....Schrager at NFL.com who has us trading out of Rd1 altogether to Minny, and getting #87 and #119 this year and a 2024 2nd & 4th. Hey dude, we are trying to win a SB, we are not into future asset accumulation. We moved down & ou first pick is #60? And Kancey & Porter were both on the board?

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

As for individual player availability.

Tier 1.

No availability at #28 for anyone save for 1 mock that had Levis & Richardson sliding past #28. Further, for those digging a trade up with Jacksonville, there were only 2 instances of a Tier 1 guy dropping to 24. Van Ness once and N. Snith once.

Tier 2. In the order I have them on my board.

Player, Pos, # Times there at #28, times taken, times there at #24.

1. Robinson, RB, 1/21, 0/1, 3/24.
2. Wright, OT, 2/21, 1/2, 5/24.
3. Kancey, DT, 9/21, 0/9, 13/24.
4. Forbes, CB, 10/21, 1/10, 11/21.
5. Mayer, TE, 5/21, 4/5, 12/21.
6. Murphy, DE, 9/21, 0/9, 9/21.
7. Banks, CB, 3/21, 0/3, 8/21.
8. Kincaid, TE, 2/21, 1/2, 5/21
9. Porter, CB, 2/21, 1/2, 3/21
10. Flowers, WR, 1/21, 0/1, 7/21
11. Gibbs, RB, 19/21, 6/19, 21/21.

The players in Tier 3 that get selected the most often prior to 28, and I need 3 to be to ensure at least 1 Tier 2 guy is there, assuming 4 QBs go before 28, are:

1. Addison, 19/21
2. Branch, 9/21
3. Johnston, 8/21
4. Torrence, 7/21
5. Hookee, 7/21
6. Harrison, 4/21
7. Hyatt, 4/21
8. McDonald, 4/21
9. Bresee, 3/21
10. Campbell, 3/21

2/21: Smith (NT), Simpson, Musgrave, Avila, Mauch
1/21: Tippman (+ we pick him once), Sanders, White, Washington, Adebewore, Schmitz, Smith (CB), Bennett (CB).