Positional value/Draft approach

[SouthernStripes]

OG board member here. I don't post as much as I did there, but I'm always here reading. This is probably poor armchair GM logic on my part, so feel free to correct me if wrong. Taking a casual glance, it seems like our Bengals don't overall value positions like TE, RB, LB, S, OG, C as high as they value positions like QB, DE, OT, CB, WR, DT.

With the way the Bengals FO values certain positions, it seems to me they would be most likely to draft one of the positions they value the most in Round 1. Spare me the Rivers, Gresham, Eifert, Hill argument as they were BPA according to the team. And we seem to have the secret to drafting good LB/WR on days 2-3.

Let's be honest, we all would love for Joe BRRRow to have a legitimate threat @TE. Outside of a top prospect/BPA falling into our lap, I.E. Kincaid and Mayer, I don't see us taking a TE in Round 1. I love Washington's freakish size and blocking ability, maybe he falls in Round 2. If not, a LaPorta/Musgrave/Kraft/Schoonmaker/Kuntz can be had later.
Obviously, it all depends on how the draft falls in front of us. But I could see them taking someone like OT Wright/Harrison, a DT like Bresee/Kancey or a DB like Banks/Forbes.
Who knows, maybe a DE like Van Ness falls to us. And I don't see Bijan Robinson falling outside Top 15. So with Mixon situation and the need to improve the running game, I would be okay with drafting Jahmyr Gibbs, as he would thrive in this Offense IMO. A lot of teams have him higher than Robinson, so I don't see him making it to us on day 2. I also like Charbonnet/Johnson/Miller and others days 2-3.

All in all, I'm not an expert by any means. These are just the observations of a diehard fan. Nobody here or even in the league knows how this will go. There are always surprises (SEA/NE), but outside of the top 5-10, I see this Draft as the biggest toss up of recent memory. What say you Who Dey Nation?
Based off how this franchise values certain positions over others, I would not be surprised to see them take an OT or CB in Round 1 Thursday night and nab a TE later.
If TE isn't BPA, what position do you think will be our 1st Round pick?
Based off the current roster and contracts, I'm leaning CB if the right one is there. 
In Duke We Trust!

WIO DEY from NC!!

[*ochocincos*]

(04-25-2023, 11:33 AM)SouthernStripes Wrote: OG board member here. I don't post as much as I did there, but I'm always here reading. This is probably poor armchair GM logic on my part, so feel free to correct me if wrong. Taking a casual glance, it seems like our Bengals don't overall value positions like TE, RB, LB, S, OG, C as high as they value positions like QB, DE, OT, CB, WR, DT.

With the way the Bengals FO values certain positions, it seems to me they would be most likely to draft one of the positions they value the most in Round 1. Spare me the Rivers, Gresham, Eifert, Hill argument as they were BPA according to the team. And we seem to have the secret to drafting good LB/WR on days 2-3.

Let's be honest, we all would love for Joe BRRRow to have a legitimate threat @TE. Outside of a top prospect/BPA falling into our lap, I.E. Kincaid and Mayer, I don't see us taking a TE in Round 1. I love Washington's freakish size and blocking ability, maybe he falls in Round 2. If not, a LaPorta/Musgrave/Kraft/Schoonmaker/Kuntz can be had later.
Obviously, it all depends on how the draft falls in front of us. But I could see them taking someone like OT Wright/Harrison, a DT like Bresee/Kancey or a DB like Banks/Forbes.
Who knows, maybe a DE like Van Ness falls to us. And I don't see Bijan Robinson falling outside Top 15. So with Mixon situation and the need to improve the running game, I would be okay with drafting Jahmyr Gibbs, as he would thrive in this Offense IMO. A lot of teams have him higher than Robinson, so I don't see him making it to us on day 2. I also like Charbonnet/Johnson/Miller and others days 2-3.

All in all, I'm not an expert by any means. These are just the observations of a diehard fan. Nobody here or even in the league knows how this will go. There are always surprises (SEA/NE), but outside of the top 5-10, I see this Draft as the biggest toss up of recent memory. What say you Who Dey Nation?
Based off how this franchise values certain positions over others, I would not be surprised to see them take an OT or CB in Round 1 Thursday night and nab a TE later.
If TE isn't BPA, what position do you think will be our 1st Round pick?
In Duke We Trust!

WIO DEY from NC!!

Bengals definitely have a tendency to focus on the "outside" positions over the "inside" ones.
QB, WR, OT, DE, and CB have dominated the Bengals' 1st round selections over the past 20 years.
Other than TE (Mayer or Kincaid) being clear BPA, I really feel it will either be a CB (Forbes, Cam Smith, or Banks) or Darnell Wright (if he's there) at this point.

[SouthernStripes]

(04-25-2023, 12:01 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Bengals definitely have a tendency to focus on the "outside" positions over the "inside" ones.
QB, WR, OT, DE, and CB have dominated the Bengals' 1st round selections over the past 20 years.
Other than TE (Mayer or Kincaid) being clear BPA, I really feel it will either be a CB (Forbes, Cam Smith, or Banks) or Darnell Wright (if he's there) at this point.

Agreed. Based off the current roster and contracts, I'm leaning CB if the right one is there @28. CTB has proven himself. But with Awuzie contract expiring after this season, I think they are looking to replenish this position ahead of time. 
I'm good with an OT @28 too, as the last 2 seasons have proven you need good depth on the OL.
I also think there's a chance if a Bresee or Kancey falls, we take them as our DL needs improvement as well. Mainly the pass rush, but as much as I love Reader, his contract is expiring too. I'd be okay with Maize day 2 if we can get a Forbes/Wright in Rd 1.

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

(04-25-2023, 12:01 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Bengals definitely have a tendency to focus on the "outside" positions over the "inside" ones.
QB, WR, OT, DE, and CB have dominated the Bengals' 1st round selections over the past 20 years.
Other than TE (Mayer or Kincaid) being clear BPA, I really feel it will either be a CB (Forbes, Cam Smith, or Banks) or Darnell Wright (if he's there) at this point.

I think this is true, but I would add DT to the mix. A DT/NT whi can be a disruptor & pressure the QB. If Kancey is there I think we pounce on him before anyone save Robinson, Wright, JSN, or Van Ness. 

[*ochocincos*]

(04-25-2023, 12:33 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: I think this is true, but I would add DT to the mix. A DT/NT whi can be a disruptor & pressure the QB. If Kancey is there I think we pounce on him before anyone save Robinson, Wright, JSN, or Van Ness. 

Maybe, but Bengals haven't drafted a DT in Rd 1 in the past 20+ years.
It's possible but not likely.
DT would have be real big BPA I think for them to go that route.
There's plenty of DTs in Rds 2-4 that I think can be just fine as rotational player that can develop into a starter in 1-3 years from now.

[sandwedge]

(04-25-2023, 12:01 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Bengals definitely have a tendency to focus on the "outside" positions over the "inside" ones.
QB, WR, OT, DE, and CB have dominated the Bengals' 1st round selections over the past 20 years.
Other than TE (Mayer or Kincaid) being clear BPA, I really feel it will either be a CB (Forbes, Cam Smith, or Banks) or Darnell Wright (if he's there) at this point.

Peter King has us taking Luke Musgrave....

[*ochocincos*]

(04-25-2023, 02:14 PM)sandwedge Wrote: Peter King has us taking Luke Musgrave....

I don't personally want a TE who has had a history of not being on the field throughout his college career.
Only 20 games played across 4 seasons.
And the only season he played double-digit games he only put up 304 yards, 1 TD.

[SunsetBengal]

(04-25-2023, 02:14 PM)sandwedge Wrote: Peter King has us taking Luke Musgrave....

Meh, Peter King has been around long enough to still associate the Bengals with making poor decisions. He probably views the Bengals recent success as a fluke, rather than the product of improved organizational management.

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

Certain positions cost more in free agency. Like LT or CB compared to TE. It helps teams manage their cap if they have those high value positions on rookie contracts and vets like Hurst or Irv Smith on relatively affordable free agent contracts.

I would prefer one of those positions of greater value than a TE in the 1st round. Especially this draft because TE is on of the deeper positions this draft. If a player at one of those premier positions with a 1st round grade isn’t available I’d draft Jahmyr Gibbs over any of the TEs because he is a threat to score anytime he touches the ball.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(04-25-2023, 11:33 AM)SouthernStripes Wrote: OG board member here. I don't post as much as I did there, but I'm always here reading. This is probably poor armchair GM logic on my part, so feel free to correct me if wrong. Taking a casual glance, it seems like our Bengals don't overall value positions like TE, RB, LB, S, OG, C as high as they value positions like QB, DE, OT, CB, WR, DT.

With the way the Bengals FO values certain positions, it seems to me they would be most likely to draft one of the positions they value the most in Round 1. Spare me the Rivers, Gresham, Eifert, Hill argument as they were BPA according to the team. And we seem to have the secret to drafting good LB/WR on days 2-3.

Let's be honest, we all would love for Joe BRRRow to have a legitimate threat @TE. Outside of a top prospect/BPA falling into our lap, I.E. Kincaid and Mayer, I don't see us taking a TE in Round 1. I love Washington's freakish size and blocking ability, maybe he falls in Round 2. If not, a LaPorta/Musgrave/Kraft/Schoonmaker/Kuntz can be had later.
Obviously, it all depends on how the draft falls in front of us. But I could see them taking someone like OT Wright/Harrison, a DT like Bresee/Kancey or a DB like Banks/Forbes.
Who knows, maybe a DE like Van Ness falls to us. And I don't see Bijan Robinson falling outside Top 15. So with Mixon situation and the need to improve the running game, I would be okay with drafting Jahmyr Gibbs, as he would thrive in this Offense IMO. A lot of teams have him higher than Robinson, so I don't see him making it to us on day 2. I also like Charbonnet/Johnson/Miller and others days 2-3.

All in all, I'm not an expert by any means. These are just the observations of a diehard fan. Nobody here or even in the league knows how this will go. There are always surprises (SEA/NE), but outside of the top 5-10, I see this Draft as the biggest toss up of recent memory. What say you Who Dey Nation?
Based off how this franchise values certain positions over others, I would not be surprised to see them take an OT or CB in Round 1 Thursday night and nab a TE later.
If TE isn't BPA, what position do you think will be our 1st Round pick?
Based off the current roster and contracts, I'm leaning CB if the right one is there. 
In Duke We Trust!

WIO DEY from NC!!

Nice post and thread SouthernStripes. Missed your posts.

I think Emmanuel Forbes CB Mississippi State is the most likely pick at 28 on Thursday night. Would be of great value and helps 
insure the CB room for the future when Chido leaves. We HAVE met with the top TE's and RB's more than any positions in this 
Draft though, so I am not completely sure we will not pick one early. If Bijan falls to us I bet we pick him for sure. Just is unlikely.

Darnell Washington is still my favorite TE in this Draft and I hope the news of him having some problems allows him to fall all 
the way to 60 and we pick him. Doubt he falls that far but you never know. My favorite RB after Bijan Robinson is Tyjae Spears,
would love to get him in the 3rd round.

[Hammerstripes]

Sure isn't like the old days where you could narrow the pick down to 2 or 3 guys because we were drafting in the Top 10.

That being said, I have no clue. I could name 10 guys right now that could be the pick and I'd be ok with all of them.

What I hope we get out of the draft is a group of guys that can immediately contribute in the sub packages at the following spots - TE, DT, Edge, CB, RB. I don't think it's a stretch that we can accomplish that. Not saying they'll all be stars or starters, but at least contribute.

[Burma]

I was looking on sportrac at the contracts for DTs to get an idea of what Reader may be looking at next year. There are not many at his level of play and signing their contract after 29 years old. Javon Hargrave recently signed a 4/$84mill with an aav of $21 mill. Dalvin Tomlinson signed a 4/$57 mill with an aav of $14.25 mill. Reader should be able to match Hargrave or come close. I really don't see a situation where they can re-sign him with all the other big contracts coming up.

So, I guess this is a very long winded explanation as to why I would not be surprised to see Mazi Smith as the selection. The Bengals will not be able to afford the market for a comparable free agent replacement, so it will have to come via the draft. Reader is a huge part of this D's success and having his heir ready to go will be an important step in keeping things rolling.

[Whatever]

(04-25-2023, 12:36 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Maybe, but Bengals haven't drafted a DT in Rd 1 in the past 20+ years.
It's possible but not likely.
DT would have be real big BPA I think for them to go that route.
There's plenty of DTs in Rds 2-4 that I think can be just fine as rotational player that can develop into a starter in 1-3 years from now.

Hell, I can't remember the Bengals drafting a DT on Day 2 since the Still/Thompson draft.  

[Bengalstripes9]

I agree with this thinking as well.

I'd prefer a corner, dlineman, or a HB like Gibbs.

From there some solid players at other positions like TE and guard can be had later.

I definitely don't want to see us reach on an OT, and TE in the 1st makes me nervous. He may get injured or be slow to develop.

[*ochocincos*]

(04-25-2023, 10:14 PM)Whatever Wrote: Hell, I can't remember the Bengals drafting a DT on Day 2 since the Still/Thompson draft.  

Technically Zach Carter was a hybrid DL coming out of college, but he's listed as a DT with the Bengals.
Was taken Rd 3 last year.

[SunsetBengal]

(04-25-2023, 05:59 PM)Hammerstripes Wrote: Sure isn't like the old days where you could narrow the pick down to 2 or 3 guys because we were drafting in the Top 10.

That being said, I have no clue.  I could name 10 guys right now that could be the pick and I'd be ok with all of them.

What I hope we get out of the draft is a group of guys that can immediately contribute in the sub packages at the following spots - TE, DT, Edge, CB, RB.  I don't think it's a stretch that we can accomplish that.  Not saying they'll all be stars or starters, but at least contribute.

It is rather refreshing to have the Bengals considered SB contenders for a couple of years in a row now.  I also agree that it's much tougher to figure out which direction the team will go in the draft, if they even know for sure themselves, right now.  I'm sure that they have plans, and contingency plans, what if we trade plans, etc., etc.

[Schmitbuck]

(04-25-2023, 10:32 PM)Bengalstripes9 Wrote: I agree with this thinking as well.  

I'd prefer a corner, dlineman, or a HB like Gibbs.

From there some solid players at other positions like TE and guard can be had later.

I definitely don't want to see us reach on an OT, and TE in the 1st makes me nervous. He may get injured or be slow to develop.

This is where I am for this draft. I'm going to be rooting for lots QBs and surprise WRs to be drafted before 28 for one of the defenders to drop. 

James Rapien has some great Youtube videos on why he'd like Gibbs to be the pick. Would make a lot of sense with how defenses defend Chase/Higgins. 

[casear2727]

(04-25-2023, 11:33 AM)SouthernStripes Wrote: OG board member here. I don't post as much as I did there, but I'm always here reading. This is probably poor armchair GM logic on my part, so feel free to correct me if wrong. Taking a casual glance, it seems like our Bengals don't overall value positions like TE, RB, LB, S, OG, C as high as they value positions like QB, DE, OT, CB, WR, DT.

This isnt a Bengals thing, it is an NFL thing.   Look at the contracts per position and especially, the 5th year salaries per postion.

That 5th year is one big reason for "value", in the 1st Rd.  TE/RB provides hardly any savings in that 5th year vs QB, DE, OT, CB, WR, DT.  Travis Kelce will make 11M this season....