ESPN projected Murphy's sack totals for his rookie contract

[*ochocincos*]

https://stripehype.com/posts/bengals-news-rookies-prepare-to-report-espn-projects-myles-murphy-s-sack-total-01h03x9gcm80

They estimate Murphy will total 21-22 sacks over the course of 5 seasons.

That feels low for a 1st round pick, as it's just an average of over 4 sacks a season, but with Hendrickson, Hubbard, and Ossai all Bengals for the next 2+ years, Murphy may end up being somewhat limited by opportunities until midway through his rookie contract.

[Gdale_Bengal]

You also have to understand he’s going to be a bit of a project at pass rushing. He has 1 real move, and has only showed flashes of that special bend the last year at Clemson. He is already good at setting the edge as a run defender, which I feel is the baseline of playing DE in the AFC north, the pass rushing is kind of secondary, but sacks and picks are so badly needed for this team, you just hope these rookies can develop in a few years to be those difference makers.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(05-11-2023, 11:51 AM)ochocincos Wrote: https://stripehype.com/posts/bengals-news-rookies-prepare-to-report-espn-projects-myles-murphy-s-sack-total-01h03x9gcm80

They estimate Murphy will total 21-22 sacks over the course of 5 seasons.

That feels low for a 1st round pick, as it's just an average of over 4 sacks a season, but with Hendrickson, Hubbard, and Ossai all Bengals for the next 2+ years, Murphy may end up being somewhat limited by opportunities until midway through his rookie contract.

I have no clue how they can possibly project that, but it isn't particularly low for a 1st round pick (first 5 years only, at least 4/5 years listed as DE according to PFR)...

2018
Bradley Chubb (5th): 28.5
Marcus Davenport (14th): 21.5
2017
Myles Garrett (1st): 58.5
Soloman Thomas (3rd): 9.5
Derek Barnett (14th): 21.5
Jonathan Allen (17th): 26.0
Takkarist McKinley (26th): 20.0
Taco Charlton (28th): 11.5
2016
Joey Bosa (3rd): 47.5
Shaq Lawson (19th): 20.5
2015
Leonard Williams (6th): 17.5
Shane Ray (23rd): 14.0
2014
Jadeveon Clowney (1st): 29.0

- - - - -
You pretty much have Myles Garrett as a 1st overall pick freak, and Joey Bosa as a 3rd overall pick as the only real outliers. Even top-3 picks are only 50% great in that group... if you look at 1st round picks after the top-5, only Jonathan Allen out of the 7 has more than 22, at 26.

[*ochocincos*]

(05-11-2023, 12:17 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: I have no clue how they can possibly project that, but it isn't particularly low for a 1st round pick (first 5 years only, at least 4/5 years listed as DE according to PFR)...

2018
Bradley Chubb (5th): 28.5
Marcus Davenport (14th): 21.5
2017
Myles Garrett (1st): 58.5
Soloman Thomas (3rd): 9.5
Derek Barnett (14th): 21.5
Jonathan Allen (17th): 26.0
Takkarist McKinley (26th): 20.0
Taco Charlton (28th): 11.5
2016
Joey Bosa (3rd): 47.5
Shaq Lawson (19th): 20.5
2015
Leonard Williams (6th): 17.5
Shane Ray (23rd): 14.0
2014
Jadeveon Clowney (1st): 29.0

- - - - -
You pretty much have Myles Garrett as a 1st overall pick freak, and Joey Bosa as a 3rd overall pick as the only real outliers. Even top-3 picks are only 50% great in that group... if you look at 1st round picks after the top-5, only Jonathan Allen out of the 7 has more than 22, at 26.

Fair point, but I guess I would mean fans (or at least myself) would be disappointed if that's all he got.
I think we (or I) want to see 30+ over the course of 5 years.
My expectation is an average of 6+ sacks per year, knowing that may not be achieved in the first couple years but we want Murphy to get into the 8+ by Year 4-5.

My reasoning for this expectation?
Sam Hubbard has put up 30.5 sacks in 5 years.
If Murphy's floor is Hubbard, I expect production like that.

[Frank Booth]

Off topic but I never was a fan of this pick. Bengals needed a pass rusher to contribute this year. Not a run stopper who maybe can develop into a good pass rusher in year 3

[depthchart]

(05-11-2023, 02:41 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: Off topic but I never was a fan of this pick. Bengals needed a pass rusher to contribute this year. Not a run stopper who maybe can develop into a good pass rusher in year 3

Who did you want them to take with the pick ?

[Frank Booth]

(05-11-2023, 03:02 PM)depthchart Wrote: Who did you want them to take with the pick ?

Whoever had less overall upside but was better at pass rushing

[depthchart]

(05-11-2023, 03:14 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: Whoever had less overall upside but was better at pass rushing

Thought you might have a certain player in mind.

Sounds like you may have passed on a DE altogether in round 1 and maybe got one later.

The Bengals appear to prefer overall upside and versatility.

[*ochocincos*]

(05-11-2023, 03:02 PM)depthchart Wrote: Who did you want them to take with the pick ?

(05-11-2023, 03:14 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: Whoever had less overall upside but was better at pass rushing

Isaiah Foskey might have been a good selection.
More proven production in college plus a good ceiling to get even better.
6'5", 264 lbs of pass rush.
Lance Zierlein compared him to Yannick Ngakoue

[depthchart]

(05-11-2023, 04:24 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Isaiah Foskey might have been a good selection.
More proven production in college plus a good ceiling to get even better.
6'5", 264 lbs of pass rush.
Lance Zierlein compared him to Yannick Ngakoue

Foskey looks like a good option and went with pick 40.

The Bengals met with him at the Combine from what I am seeing. Wonder how close the Bengals had him and Murphy rated.

[*ochocincos*]

(05-11-2023, 04:45 PM)depthchart Wrote: Foskey looks like a good option and went with pick 40.

The Bengals met with him at the Combine from what I am seeing. Wonder how close they had him and Murphy rated.

He kinda fell for the same reason Carl Lawson did in his draft - lacked some sand in the pants trying to set the edge in the run game.
But the pass rush chops are there.
Lawson also had injury concerns which knocked him down further though.

[Brownshoe]

I really don't care how many sacks Murphy gets (to a certain extent). If he's able to make the teams total sack numbers go up that's all that matters. How many times would Hendrickson or Hubbard have had sacks if they had another defender in the backfield giving pressure? The more I look into Murphy the better I like the pick. I think that he'll have more sacks than they project by the end of his rookie contract. If he helps the team get more sacks that's a success in a weakness our defense had last year. The last time we took someone on the defensive line was Justin Smith, so hopefully Murphy will pan out like Smith did.

[Housh]

(05-11-2023, 11:51 AM)ochocincos Wrote: https://stripehype.com/posts/bengals-news-rookies-prepare-to-report-espn-projects-myles-murphy-s-sack-total-01h03x9gcm80

They estimate Murphy will total 21-22 sacks over the course of 5 seasons.

That feels low for a 1st round pick, as it's just an average of over 4 sacks a season, but with Hendrickson, Hubbard, and Ossai all Bengals for the next 2+ years, Murphy may end up being somewhat limited by opportunities until midway through his rookie contract.

That would be very high to me seeing he’s behind so many guys on the depth chart

But i think he’s gonna be a guy like Hubbard. Hell do so much shit well that you can’t keep him off the field


I am very interested in his pass defense potential. 4.4 guy who is smart. I wonder if he’s has any middle linebacker blood in his veins

[BengalsBong]

The Bengals wanted a bigger guy that could take some of Hendrikson's snaps. Someone that can play the run and produce a few sacks. Hendrikson is not great against the run but if he has his wind later in games when teams have to pass it could led to more sacks for Hubbard and Hendrikson.

[XenoMorph]

(05-11-2023, 11:51 AM)ochocincos Wrote: https://stripehype.com/posts/bengals-news-rookies-prepare-to-report-espn-projects-myles-murphy-s-sack-total-01h03x9gcm80

They estimate Murphy will total 21-22 sacks over the course of 5 seasons.

That feels low for a 1st round pick, as it's just an average of over 4 sacks a season, but with Hendrickson, Hubbard, and Ossai all Bengals for the next 2+ years, Murphy may end up being somewhat limited by opportunities until midway through his rookie contract.

gotta think hes not gonna be a full time starter right away (Barring injury)... Likely be a rotational for a bit

[Soonerpeace]

(05-12-2023, 12:11 AM)BengalsBong Wrote: The Bengals wanted a bigger guy that could take some of Hendrikson's snaps. Someone that can play the run and produce a few sacks. Hendrikson is not great against the run but if he has his wind later in games when teams have to pass it could led to more sacks for Hubbard and Hendrikson.

That’s a solid observation. To me a lot of draft decisions were based on last seasons events. Hendrickson got his wrist hurt and we survived but our pash rush was weaker. But he got winded a lot. So Murphy is drafted. Awouzie went down and although CTB did very well filling in the lack of depth was an issue. They drafted DJ Turner. Chrisman’s punt against KC hurt and my understanding didn’t kick it according to plan. They drafted Robbins. Tyler Boyd went down against KC and it hurt. Jones was drafted. Brown was drafted to replace Perine and maybe eventually Mixon.

[*ochocincos*]

(05-12-2023, 08:50 AM)XenoMorph Wrote: gotta think hes not gonna be a full time starter right away (Barring injury)... Likely be a rotational for a bit

Yep which is why he starts off slower, but hopefully he gets into the 9+ sack a year range once he's a starter in a couple years.