Reds August 2023 thread

[guyofthetiger]

(08-29-2023, 01:01 AM)cinci4life Wrote: Guess this ump wants to go home. That strike 3 wasn't even close.

The umps have been horrible when it comes to the Reds. I see lots of balls called strikes. And when the Reds are pitching strikes called balls. Very bad.

[*bengalfan74*]

(08-28-2023, 11:48 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Apparently the entire team's game plan today was watch fastballs in the zone and swing at pitches that almost hit your back foot....

They've used that plan a lot.

[*bengalfan74*]

(08-28-2023, 11:02 PM)cinci4life Wrote: Appears the crappy Abbott is here tonight.

It seems it's time to pull the plug on Abbott for this season. He's toast.

[*ochocincos*]

7 games out of the division race with less than 30 games to play, and McLain is now on the IL?
I think that will about do it for the division, folks.

Only 1.5 games out of the WC, but the next 9 games are against teams that are good, including two teams the Reds are fighting for the WC.
If the Reds fall more than 3.0 out of the WC race by the end of the Mariners series, I think that will be a wrap for the season.

On the plus side, the Sunday after the Mariners series ends, the Bengals are back for the regular season!

[TecmoBengals]

(08-29-2023, 10:05 AM)ochocincos Wrote: 7 games out of the division race with less than 30 games to play, and McLain is now on the IL?
I think that will about do it for the division, folks.

It was a better season and more fun to follow than I anticipated. Let's hope next year the bats remain alive and pitching emerges.

[*ochocincos*]

(08-29-2023, 11:24 AM)TecmoBengals Wrote: It was a better season and more fun to follow than I anticipated. Let's hope next year the bats remain alive and pitching emerges.

Agreed, it was.
It made for an interesting June through August, unlike last year.
September will be interesting too, at least for the first week or two.


Really hoping we see some effort put into some veteran pitchers (bullpen if anything), maybe another catcher next year.

Reds currently only have about $26 mill on the books for next year, but that just includes Votto's $20 mill club option (likely getting declined), Hunter Greene's new contract of $3.33 mill, and Curt Casali's mutual option of $2.5 mill (likely declined?).
If Votto and Casali are off the books, the only veteran salary is going toward Greene.
The rest of the money will go toward the pre-arb and arb money for the rest of the guys.
I have no idea what that will come out to be, but since all the Reds' arb look to be around $2.5 mill or less for each player this year, I would bet they still have $20-40 mill left to put toward guys next year. Should be enough to bring in a couple good relievers, a starter, and a backup catcher, if not more.

[*bengalfan74*]

(08-29-2023, 10:05 AM)ochocincos Wrote: 7 games out of the division race with less than 30 games to play, and McLain is now on the IL?
I think that will about do it for the division, folks.

Only 1.5 games out of the WC, but the next 9 games are against teams that are good, including two teams the Reds are fighting for the WC.
If the Reds fall more than 3.0 out of the WC race by the end of the Mariners series, I think that will be a wrap for the season.

On the plus side, the Sunday after the Mariners series ends, the Bengals are back for the regular season!  

Yep

Last night when the Giants pitcher struck out the first 9 batters or whatever with little to no contact I was like yep, it's over.

Now McClain's out, who knows when or even if Fraley and India come back? Greene still doesn't have to together; Abbott is used up. I'd say we're a loss or two away from throwing in the towel. Or at least we should.

There's no use in burning Abbott all the way up or forcing guys to come back from injury for a lost season. That's the bad news.

The good news is we actually might have something to look forward too next year if ownership will get some pitching?

[*ochocincos*]

(08-29-2023, 12:33 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Yep

Last night when the Giants pitcher struck out the first 9 batters or whatever with little to no contact I was like yep, it's over.

Now McClain's out, who knows when or even if Fraley and India come back? Greene still doesn't have to together; Abbott is used up. I'd say we're a loss or two away from throwing in the towel. Or at least we should.

There's no use in burning Abbott all the way up or forcing guys to come back from injury for a lost season. That's the bad news.

The good news is we actually might have something to look forward too next year if ownership will get some pitching?

I'd be a little concerned if Abbott really needs to get shelved due to his innings pitched.
He pitched 54.0 in the minors this year, and 88.2 with the Reds. That's only 142.2 IP in the season.
I'm not saying we need him to pitch 200 innings this year, but I'd like to see him go around 160, which would be a few more starts.
At least reach 150, which is just another start or two.

It's not really "burning him up" by pitching more if he gets the entire offseason to rest, right?
Maybe I've always thought about it wrong, but if he pitched through the rest of the year and got to 150-175 innings pitched, it will help condition him for future seasons.

[*bengalfan74*]

(08-29-2023, 12:43 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I'd be a little concerned if Abbott really needs to get shelved due to his innings pitched.
He pitched 54.0 in the minors this year, and 88.2 with the Reds. That's only 142.2 IP in the season.
I'm not saying we need him to pitch 200 innings this year, but I'd like to see him go around 160, which would be a few more starts.
At least reach 150, which is just another start or two.

It's not really "burning him up" by pitching more if he gets the entire offseason to rest, right?
Maybe I've always thought about it wrong, but if he pitched through the rest of the year and got to 150-175 innings pitched, it will help condition him for future seasons.

I get what you're saying and don't totally disagree, however. Like last night as you get more fatigued the break on your curves isn't as sharp, you can't get the spin. Your fastball slows down 2 or 3 MPH and you start trying to aim it. Then you start getting knocked around hard and ERA shoots up and you start trying to throw harder and before you know it, you're looking at Tommy John surgery and for what??

It's a fine line on when to pull the plug for sure? I'm just saying let him rest when it becomes a lost cause. And I believe we're on the cusp of it being a lost cause now.

Or like they said last night let him take a couple starts off then pitch his last three. I dunno ? I just know I'd hate to see him going under the knife already for nothing. At some point next season is going to become way more important. 

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(08-29-2023, 12:43 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I'd be a little concerned if Abbott really needs to get shelved due to his innings pitched.
He pitched 54.0 in the minors this year, and 88.2 with the Reds. That's only 142.2 IP in the season.
I'm not saying we need him to pitch 200 innings this year, but I'd like to see him go around 160, which would be a few more starts.
At least reach 150, which is just another start or two.

It's not really "burning him up" by pitching more if he gets the entire offseason to rest, right?
Maybe I've always thought about it wrong, but if he pitched through the rest of the year and got to 150-175 innings pitched, it will help condition him for future seasons.

It's about 25 innings more than he has ever pitched before. He was a relief pitcher in college his first 3 years until 2021, so this is only his 3rd year of being a starting pitcher.

Also remember his very first start he went 105 pitches and they were saying "this is his first career start where he's thrown 100 or more pitches" and then he went 100+ pitches 7 times in his first 12 starts in the majors. So even if it is an equal number of innings each are a much higher load on the arm.

So you have a recently converted relief pitcher pitching the most innings he's ever thrown, throwing the most pitches he's ever thrown, in his rookie season in MLB where it's much more stressful innings and pitches on a 1-to-1 basis. It's not really surprising he hit a wall, and more surprising that the Reds did nothing to plan and prepare to try to delay it.

I've heard in the past that ~40 innings is generally the high limit on how much you want to increase a guy's career high innings by in a single year, but ultimately if a guy's body is trying to tell him to stop, then you can absolutely burn him up by ignoring what your own body is telling you. If you're losing velocity, control, and movement, your shoulder and elbow are trying to send you a message and you should always listen because not listening is the road to TJ or even worse, shoulder surgery.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

As an add-on to my previous post, I will say that I think Abbott is a bit of a victim of a problem in our minor league system. Our pitchers just aren't being properly prepared to perform for a season in the major leagues...

In the minors in 2023 Abbott averaged about 5.1 IP per start.
In the minors in 2022 Abbott averaged about 4.2 IP per start.

In the minors in 2022 Ashcraft averaged about 4.1 IP per start.
In the minors in 2021 Ashcraft averaged about 5.0 IP per start.

In the minors in 2021 Greene averaged about 5.0 IP per start.

In the minors in 2023 Williamson averaged about 4.1 IP per start.
In the minors in 2022 Williamson averaged about 4.2 IP per start.
In the minors in 2021 Williamson averaged about 5.1 IP per start. (In another team's minor league system.)

In the minors in 2021 Lodolo averaged about 4.0 IP per start.

- - - - - - -

They're setting them up for failure in the minors.

Luis Castillo averaged ~5.2 IP per start and had reached 130+ IP in a season in the minors.
Tyler Mahle averaged a hair over 6.0 IP per start and reached 144 IP in his last full season in the minors.
Johnny Cueto averaged over 5.2 IP per start and reached 160+ IP in his last full season in the minors.
Sonny Gray averaged just under 6.0 IP per start in his last season in the minors and reached 150+ IP in the minors a season before that.

The conditioning that Ocho talked about needs to take place in the minors so that they are prepared for it when they get to the majors. If they're only used to throwing 100 innings a year at 4.2 innings per start (I don't have pitch counts for their minors, but I assume it's nowhere near 100+), it's no wonder they can't come up to the majors and throw 180 innings at 6 innings a start and routinely go 100+ pitches per start.

When Tyler Mahle is the best homegrown pitcher your franchise has developed in the minors since Johnny Cueto debuted 15 years ago, you have an organizational issue.

[*ochocincos*]

(08-29-2023, 02:46 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: It's about 25 innings more than he has ever pitched before. He was a relief pitcher in college his first 3 years until 2021, so this is only his 3rd year of being a starting pitcher.

Also remember his very first start he went 105 pitches and they were saying "this is his first career start where he's thrown 100 or more pitches" and then he went 100+ pitches 7 times in his first 12 starts in the majors. So even if it is an equal number of innings each are a much higher load on the arm.

So you have a recently converted relief pitcher pitching the most innings he's ever thrown, throwing the most pitches he's ever thrown, in his rookie season in MLB where it's much more stressful innings and pitches on a 1-to-1 basis. It's not really surprising he hit a wall, and more surprising that the Reds did nothing to plan and prepare to try to delay it.

I've heard in the past that ~40 innings is generally the high limit on how much you want to increase a guy's career high innings by in a single year, but ultimately if a guy's body is trying to tell him to stop, then you can absolutely burn him up by ignoring what your own body is telling you. If you're losing velocity, control, and movement, your shoulder and elbow are trying to send you a message and you should always listen because not listening is the road to TJ or even worse, shoulder surgery.

(08-29-2023, 04:44 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: As an add-on to my previous post, I will say that I think Abbott is a bit of a victim of a problem in our minor league system. Our pitchers just aren't being properly prepared to perform for a season in the major leagues...

In the minors in 2023 Abbott averaged about 5.1 IP per start.
In the minors in 2022 Abbott averaged about 4.2 IP per start.

In the minors in 2022 Ashcraft averaged about 4.1 IP per start.
In the minors in 2021 Ashcraft averaged about 5.0 IP per start.

In the minors in 2021 Greene averaged about 5.0 IP per start.

In the minors in 2023 Williamson averaged about 4.1 IP per start.
In the minors in 2022 Williamson averaged about 4.2 IP per start.
In the minors in 2021 Williamson averaged about 5.1 IP per start. (In another team's minor league system.)

In the minors in 2021 Lodolo averaged about 4.0 IP per start.

- - - - - - -

They're setting them up for failure in the minors.

Luis Castillo averaged ~5.2 IP per start and had reached 130+ IP in a season in the minors.
Tyler Mahle averaged a hair over 6.0 IP per start and reached 144 IP in his last full season in the minors.
Johnny Cueto averaged over 5.2 IP per start and reached 160+ IP in his last full season in the minors.
Sonny Gray averaged just under 6.0 IP per start in his last season in the minors and reached 150+ IP in the minors a season before that.

The conditioning that Ocho talked about needs to take place in the minors so that they are prepared for it when they get to the majors. If they're only used to throwing 100 innings a year at 4.2 innings per start (I don't have pitch counts for their minors, but I assume it's nowhere near 100+), it's no wonder they can't come up to the majors and throw 180 innings at 6 innings a start and routinely go 100+ pitches per start.

When Tyler Mahle is the best homegrown pitcher your franchise has developed in the minors since Johnny Cueto debuted 15 years ago, you have an organizational issue.

Thanks for the background.

I did not know Abbott was a reliever originally.

I agree he needs to be working on growing his innings, and ideally it would have been in the minors.
I just would hate to see the Reds' best pitcher this year get shut down due to innings limitation, especially when there aren't any real decent options to replace him.
Maybe Phillips could get called up and take over Abbott's remaining starts (assuming he actually needs to be and will be shut down before season's end).

[cinci4life]

How about that. A 1-2-3 first inning.

[cinci4life]

So how was that a balk? Why did he call the runner safe and then call time and call it a balk? Balks get called right away and it was like the first base coach talked him into it. What a damn joke. I'm surprised Bell is still in this game.

[Forever Spinning Vinyl]

Well, I guess if you're going to fall flat on your face in failure, it's best to get it out of the way in your rookie year . . . check that off the list now for CES. Plays like that and the 500 strikeouts will push him to improve as a player next year.

[cinci4life]

Thought it was bs to change Senzel's hit to E5. You see that kind of play called a hit all the time.

[kevin]

Tonight this not very good for Reds August ends with Hunter Greene getting in some more innings on his comeback from a bad injury.

Adios to a bad for Reds August. Good to see Reds get a much needed day off and then a long weekend Homestand in Cincinnati. Reds need to improve their Home Record for the paying fans, if they do nothing else in September. The Fans and Players having Fun as they put on the Viking Home Run Helmet many times and WIN games in Cincinnati.

I always lose interest in The Reds on the West Coast trips of games West Coast Time Zone but Midnight back in Ohio. I'm just not into Midnight Baseball. Never have been.

[The D.O.Z.]

Reds-related a bit so I will post it, but that Giolito guy so many wanted to trade prospects for at the TD is one of six being released by LAA. Dodged the proverbial bullet there, huh?

[CJD]

The Brewers just keep winning. 9-1 in their last 10. We're 7 back in the division (plus the tie breaker is Milwaukee's, so we're closer to 8 games back in reality). With jjust 1 month left of regular season play, odds are they got the division. We should turn our focus fully to the Wild Card now.

We're 2 games back from the Wild Card, with the Giants unfortunately being the ones who pushed us down here. We still have an okay shot at making the playoffs, but it must start today against the Giants. We've been completely and utterly shut down on offense the last two nights. They need to show some resolve and put up some runs today.

If Greene is back, gives us 6 quality innings and we score 4 to 5 runs, we should walk out of there with a win and we'll be back to 1 GB from the Wild Card.

If we lose and drop to 3 GB in the Wild Card...that would be rough.

After today's game, we have a 4 game weekend series with Chicago. They need to, at the very worst, split the series. If they can get 3 or 4 wins there, that may revive the season.

This is our last chance to directly affect one of our competition, as we play nothing but fodder teams and AL teams for the remainder of the season.

The silver lining of that is that we will have a (theoretically) much easier end of the season than Chicago. The Cubs have a gauntlet to end the season, with 4 games against us, 7 against Arizona, 3 against SF, 3 against Atlanta and 3 against Milwaukee over the next month (They also have 6 against Colorado and 3 against Pittsburgh). They may have the largest impact on who wins those last 2 WC spots, depending on how they fair against those other WC teams.

We're on life support right now, pending these next 5 games. If we continue on the path we've had all August, then we're toast. If we can rebound and take a few from Chicago and finish this awful west coast road trip with a win, then we still have a pretty good chance.

Losing McLain for at least 2 weeks is not promising though. Hopefully, Fraley comes back soon.

[*ochocincos*]

(08-30-2023, 12:05 PM)The D.O.Z. Wrote: Reds-related a bit so I will post it, but that Giolito guy so many wanted to trade prospects for at the TD is one of six being released by LAA. Dodged the proverbial bullet there, huh?

It wasn't necessarily because of his talent. It's because the Angels decided to throw in the towel after how August went.

As for getting released, he still has to go through waivers, so Reds still might not get him even if they tried.