PFF Bengals 2023 team/player predictions

[Soonerpeace]

PFF predicts another epic Bengals season in 2023

CINCINNATI BENGALS

1. Charlie Jones finds a way to significantly contribute as a rookie

Though most of these predictions are rooted in some kind of hard data, this one is truly just a gut feeling. In fact, things need to go wrong for this to have any chance of coming true. With Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd in place, there is no real path to the field for rookie Charlie Jones. And yet, Trenton Irwin played more than 350 snaps last season, including random games where he became a real target for Joe Burrow.

Jones just consistently made plays last season at Purdue, seeing 154 targets and gaining 2.7 yards per route run. The Bengals shouldn’t need him to make any kind of contribution, but I suspect he finds a way to make one anyway.

2. Irv Smith Jr. has a Pro Bowl season

For years, the feeling every offseason has been “if only Irv Smith Jr. could stay healthy.” In a four-year NFL career, he has played just more than 1,500 snaps in total, between one and two full seasons worth. Dropping a critical pass in the playoff game last season soured many fans on him, but he had just five drops on 126 total targets as a Minnesota Viking and still has high-end athleticism and speed. Joe Burrow has been friendly to tight ends during his time in the NFL, and if Smith can stay healthy this year, he could be a weapon in this offense.

3. Joe Burrow remains a top-five most-sacked quarterback

This was one of last season’s bold predictions, and it hit. Despite significant additions to the offensive line, Joe Burrow continues to take more sacks than he should — he simply skews in that direction stylistically. Burrow would rather squeeze every last ounce out of a play than give up on it and live to fight another down.

For his career, 24.3% of pressured plays result in sacks — a largely quarterback-driven data point — a figure that comes in more than twice as high as the lowest quarterbacks in the league. Orlando Brown Jr. represents another significant addition to the line, but it won’t stop Burrow from being Burrow. He will remain one of the most-sacked quarterbacks in the league.

So, how did PFF see the Bengals' 2023 regular-season panning out? Let's take a look.
PFF simulates Bengals 2023 regular season
* Week 1 @ Browns: 27-31 Loss
* Week 2 vs. Ravens: 16-26 Loss
* Week 3 vs. Rams: 22-15 Win
* Week 4 @ Titans: 24-18 Win
* Week 5 @ Cardinals: 24-21 Win
* Week 6 vs. Seahawks: 34-13 Win
* Week 8 @ 49ers: 15-37 Loss
* Week 9 vs. Bills: 30-20 Win
* Week 10 vs. Texans: 15-5 Win
* Week 11 @ Ravens: 29-26 Win
* Week 12 vs. Steelers: 30-27 Win
* Week 13 @ Jaguars: 26-12 Win
* Week 14 vs. Colts: 34-14 Win
* Week 15 vs. Vikings: 12-22 Loss
* Week 16 @ Steelers: 30-3 Win
* Week 17 @ Chiefs: 31-38 Loss
* Week 18 vs. Browns: 27-10 Win
PFF predicts the Bengals to go 12-5 with losses to the Browns and Ravens right out of the gate, putting them in the exact same situation they found themselves in last year. They go on to win their next four games to sit at 4-2 before losing big to the 49ers out of the BYE week and then ripping off six straight wins in what's thought to be their toughest stretch of the season.
The Bengals are projected to close out the season with losses to the Vikings and Chiefs in two of their final four games. They finish strong with a commanding win over the Browns in Week 18 to boast a 12-5 record at the end of the season.
Joe Burrow throws for an eye-popping 5,209 yards, 39 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. The yardage total is astounding but the double-digit interceptions could potentially take him out of the MVP running.
The most surprising thing about this projection is that none of the three receivers finish with 1,000 yards to their name. They all have over 900 yards receiving with Tee Higgins leading the way with 995, Ja'Marr Chase coming in second with 988, and Tyler Boyd bringing up the rear with 949 yards.

Joe Mixon has an incredible bounce-back season, totaling 1,930 yards from scrimmage with 1,324 of those coming on the ground. He finishes with five rushing touchdowns. Chase Brown has 422 total yards and two rushing scores during his rookie campaign.
Shockingly, when I had PFF simulate the three other AFC North opponents' seasons, they had the Ravens finishing with a 7-10 record, the Browns finishing just two games back of the Bengals with a 10-7 record, and the Steelers actually finishing with the same record as Cincinnati. This would mean that the Bengals would still win the division due to sweeping Pittsburgh but who would have predicted that?

It is worth noting that these projections change with every simulation so this was just one round of these. I'll be curious to see how much things change for the Bengals and within the division the next time I run the simulation.

[*rfaulk34*]

If i don't get my 13 win season this year, i'm gonna riot. I don't care that there's an extra game. I've seen 12 win seasons before. I want my 13 win season!!

[Soonerpeace]

(08-10-2023, 10:41 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: If i don't get my 13 win season this year, i'm gonna riot. I don't care that there's an extra game. I've seen 12 win seasons before. I want my 13 win season!!

Well even Vegas doesn’t like KC for 12

[Soonerpeace]

Irv Smith a Pro Bowl season …. me likey

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

Irv Smith Jr is so young and he seems to fit more than any TE we have had in the Joe Burrow era. Irv on dump offs, middle screens
short slants could be deadly with our top 3 WR's getting so much attention. Charlie Jones should at the very least be a damn good PR.

I hope the Mixon prediction comes true and he shows good effort in pass protection, if so I think we win more than 12 games. I am
predicting a 14 win season. No way we start 0-2 this year if Burrow is 100% for the opener IMO.

Ossai I think leads the team in Sacks this season and Carter leads the DT's in Sacks are two of my predictions.

[Soonerpeace]

(08-11-2023, 01:23 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Irv Smith Jr is so young and he seems to fit more than any TE we have had in the Joe Burrow era. Irv on dump offs, middle screens
short slants could be deadly with our top 3 WR's getting so much attention. Charlie Jones should at the very least be a damn good PR.

I hope the Mixon prediction comes true and he shows good effort in pass protection, if so I think we win more than 12 games. I am
predicting a 14 win season. No way we start 0-2 this year if Burrow is 100% for the opener IMO.

Ossai I think leads the team in Sacks this season and Carter leads the DT's in Sacks are two of my predictions.

Hendrickson will lead the team in sacks. No way Irv Smith gets that kind of opportunity from Joe. He’s locked in on Chase & Tee.

[*ochocincos*]

(08-10-2023, 10:37 PM)Soonerpeace Wrote: PFF predicts another epic Bengals season in 2023

CINCINNATI BENGALS

1. Charlie Jones finds a way to significantly contribute as a rookie

Though most of these predictions are rooted in some kind of hard data, this one is truly just a gut feeling. In fact, things need to go wrong for this to have any chance of coming true. With Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd in place, there is no real path to the field for rookie Charlie Jones. And yet, Trenton Irwin played more than 350 snaps last season, including random games where he became a real target for Joe Burrow.

Jones just consistently made plays last season at Purdue, seeing 154 targets and gaining 2.7 yards per route run. The Bengals shouldn’t need him to make any kind of contribution, but I suspect he finds a way to make one anyway.

2. Irv Smith Jr. has a Pro Bowl season

For years, the feeling every offseason has been “if only Irv Smith Jr. could stay healthy.” In a four-year NFL career, he has played just more than 1,500 snaps in total, between one and two full seasons worth. Dropping a critical pass in the playoff game last season soured many fans on him, but he had just five drops on 126 total targets as a Minnesota Viking and still has high-end athleticism and speed. Joe Burrow has been friendly to tight ends during his time in the NFL, and if Smith can stay healthy this year, he could be a weapon in this offense.

3. Joe Burrow remains a top-five most-sacked quarterback

This was one of last season’s bold predictions, and it hit. Despite significant additions to the offensive line, Joe Burrow continues to take more sacks than he should — he simply skews in that direction stylistically. Burrow would rather squeeze every last ounce out of a play than give up on it and live to fight another down.

For his career, 24.3% of pressured plays result in sacks — a largely quarterback-driven data point — a figure that comes in more than twice as high as the lowest quarterbacks in the league. Orlando Brown Jr. represents another significant addition to the line, but it won’t stop Burrow from being Burrow. He will remain one of the most-sacked quarterbacks in the league.

So, how did PFF see the Bengals' 2023 regular-season panning out? Let's take a look.
PFF simulates Bengals 2023 regular season
* Week 1 @ Browns: 27-31 Loss
* Week 2 vs. Ravens: 16-26 Loss
* Week 3 vs. Rams: 22-15 Win
* Week 4 @ Titans: 24-18 Win
* Week 5 @ Cardinals: 24-21 Win
* Week 6 vs. Seahawks: 34-13 Win
* Week 8 @ 49ers: 15-37 Loss
* Week 9 vs. Bills: 30-20 Win
* Week 10 vs. Texans: 15-5 Win
* Week 11 @ Ravens: 29-26 Win
* Week 12 vs. Steelers: 30-27 Win
* Week 13 @ Jaguars: 26-12 Win
* Week 14 vs. Colts: 34-14 Win
* Week 15 vs. Vikings: 12-22 Loss
* Week 16 @ Steelers: 30-3 Win
* Week 17 @ Chiefs: 31-38 Loss
* Week 18 vs. Browns: 27-10 Win
PFF predicts the Bengals to go 12-5 with losses to the Browns and Ravens right out of the gate, putting them in the exact same situation they found themselves in last year. They go on to win their next four games to sit at 4-2 before losing big to the 49ers out of the BYE week and then ripping off six straight wins in what's thought to be their toughest stretch of the season.
The Bengals are projected to close out the season with losses to the Vikings and Chiefs in two of their final four games. They finish strong with a commanding win over the Browns in Week 18 to boast a 12-5 record at the end of the season.
Joe Burrow throws for an eye-popping 5,209 yards, 39 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. The yardage total is astounding but the double-digit interceptions could potentially take him out of the MVP running.
The most surprising thing about this projection is that none of the three receivers finish with 1,000 yards to their name. They all have over 900 yards receiving with Tee Higgins leading the way with 995, Ja'Marr Chase coming in second with 988, and Tyler Boyd bringing up the rear with 949 yards.

Joe Mixon has an incredible bounce-back season, totaling 1,930 yards from scrimmage with 1,324 of those coming on the ground. He finishes with five rushing touchdowns. Chase Brown has 422 total yards and two rushing scores during his rookie campaign.
Shockingly, when I had PFF simulate the three other AFC North opponents' seasons, they had the Ravens finishing with a 7-10 record, the Browns finishing just two games back of the Bengals with a 10-7 record, and the Steelers actually finishing with the same record as Cincinnati. This would mean that the Bengals would still win the division due to sweeping Pittsburgh but who would have predicted that?

It is worth noting that these projections change with every simulation so this was just one round of these. I'll be curious to see how much things change for the Bengals and within the division the next time I run the simulation.

I know you said it was a simulation, but the simulator just seems to be improbable for the bolded.

Boyd's targets and production have been declining each of the past 3 seasons, so unless there's an injury factored in to Chase and/or Higgins, I think Boyd is once again in the 700-800 yard range with Chase and/or Higgins for sure having 1000+ yards. Definitely not seeing Boyd have 900+ if Mixon and Smith are also getting more heavy into the passing game.

Mixon having over 600 yards receiving in this simulation? The most he's had was 441. Jumping over 150 more receiving yards feels overly improbable, I think.

The overall record on the year feels about right though.

[Soonerpeace]

(08-11-2023, 01:50 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I know you said it was a simulation, but the simulator just seems to be improbable for the bolded.

Boyd's targets and production have been declining each of the past 3 seasons, so unless there's an injury factored in to Chase and/or Higgins, I think Boyd is once again in the 700-800 yard range with Chase and/or Higgins for sure having 1000+ yards. Definitely not seeing Boyd have 900+ if Mixon and Smith are also getting more heavy into the passing game.

Mixon having over 600 yards receiving in this simulation? The most he's had was 441. Jumping over 150 more receiving yards feels overly improbable, I think.

The overall record on the year feels about right though.

Keen observations. Mixon’s low …. just kidding.

[tms]

So we'll finish with the same record as PIT, but we'll blow them to smithereens at Heinz in December? Lol that's a bit weird but I guess anything can happen. Maybe PFF took into account the special pre-game egg nog that'll be served in the Steelers' locker room. Or in ours.

[grampahol]

Random win/loss generator. No way can they predict which games will be wins or losses with any significant degree of accuracy unless it's pre-determined and they have the answers. It doesn't take injuries to key players into account, weather conditions, who has a great season and who doesn't..Play the odds, fine, but since nobody has a real working magic crystal ball it's pure speculation..

[Joelist]

So we open 0-2 AND lose to KC? And they think the Rats will average 26 PPG on our defense? And that KC will light our D up for 38 when they have in 4 games yielded 31, 24, 23 and 23? This is kinda weird.

[*rfaulk34*]

Simulations are dumb AND wrong the majority of the time. I guess they can be fun to mess with if you're bored but don't put an ounce of stock into it.

[WeezyBengal]

I don't see Joe having double digit interceptions or even anywhere close to that.

He's one of the most accurate QBs in the league and only had 6 INTs last year if you take away the 5 he threw in week 1 coming off the apendectomy.

[Soonerpeace]

(08-11-2023, 03:50 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: I don't see Joe having double digit interceptions or even anywhere close to that.

He's one of the most accurate QBs in the league and only had 6 INTs last year if you take away the 5 he threw in week 1 coming off the apendectomy.

Probably going on his season avg. of 13 the last 2 seasons

[Garrus]

If Chase and Higgins both have under 1000 yards we would be in trouble, since the only way that happens is if they get injured.

[Soonerpeace]

(08-11-2023, 04:34 PM)Garrus Wrote: If Chase and Higgins both have under 1000 yards we would be in trouble, since the only way that happens is if they get injured.

I don’t agree with it but they are expecting huge years for Irv Smith and Mixon in the passing game.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(08-11-2023, 01:41 PM)Soonerpeace Wrote: Hendrickson will lead the team in sacks. No way Irv Smith gets that kind of opportunity from Joe. He’s locked in on Chase & Tee.

Well of course that is the easy prediction with Trey leading the team in Sacks. I am going out on a limb with the Ossai prediction.

We will see with Irv, think he could be better than what Hayden brought last year if he stays healthy but do doubt he becomes All Pro.

[Soonerpeace]

(08-11-2023, 05:19 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Well of course that is the easy prediction with Trey leading the team in Sacks. I am going out on a limb with the Ossai prediction.

We will see with Irv, think he could be better than what Hayden brought last year if he stays healthy but do doubt he becomes All Pro.

Trey gonna benefit from Brown reps. Hear he’s been a terror

[BFritz21]

(08-10-2023, 10:37 PM)Soonerpeace Wrote: 2. Irv Smith Jr. has a Pro Bowl season

For years, the feeling every offseason has been “if only Irv Smith Jr. could stay healthy.” In a four-year NFL career, he has played just more than 1,500 snaps in total, between one and two full seasons worth. Dropping a critical pass in the playoff game last season soured many fans on him, but he had just five drops on 126 total targets as a Minnesota Viking and still has high-end athleticism and speed. Joe Burrow has been friendly to tight ends during his time in the NFL, and if Smith can stay healthy this year, he could be a weapon in this offense.

I wanted to place a bet on him at the casino today but couldn't find any bets for him.

I wonder if I can parlay multiple players making the Pro Bowl.

I'll be back downtown soon and I'll make more bets.

[*Go Cards*]

Agee Charlie Jones will contribute and also believe Iosivas will as well.

Agree Irv Smith will thrive with Chase and Tee drawing all the attention, if he can remain healthy. But not sure Burrow throws his way enough to make the Pro Bowl. He will have to make the best of the throws he gets and make a lot of highlights reels to get the votes imo.

See Bengals going with 13-4 with losses to the Ravens, 49ers, and Bills before winning 8 out of last 9 games with only loss coming from Jax down that stretch. Then marching on to claim the Lombardy Trophy. May be wishful thinking but that's my view.

Agree and Disagree and think Joe improves just enough to get out of the top 5 sack leaders with a better LT and surpasses 5,000 passing yds. Plus will add that Joe wins MVP.

Disagree and see Chase and Higgins both surpassing a 1,000 yds receiving and Boyd getting around 800 yds with 7 TD's.

Agree that Joe Mixon should have a much improved season ahead with the O-line upgrades and hope he does, but will believe it when I see it.

Not positive on my projection on Chase Brown without seeing more of him, but going to say he gets north of 500 total yds and more if Mixon gets hurt or falters.