Reds September Games Thread

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

Used up the bench so quickly that when you needed a PR for Votto, all you had was Maile.

[Nicomo Cosca]

Elly can’t swing at that.

[cinci4life]

2nd and 3rd no outs and only get 1 in. Perfect way to end the night.

[CJD]

There's no recovering from this one...

[Goalpost]

37-43 home record. It's not like the attendance has been poor either.

[guyofthetiger]

I'm declaring the fat lady is singing tonight. The Reds had a decent season, but the pitching got to them. There is always next year.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(09-24-2023, 12:35 AM)guyofthetiger Wrote: I'm declaring the fat lady is singing tonight. The Reds had a decent season, but the pitching got to them. There is always next year.

Same thing they said at the end of the 2021 collapse when they finished the season 12-20 to miss the playoffs.

Then lost 100 in '22.

- - - - - -

The Reds had a 1.5 game lead in the division heading into August this year. Now they're not even guaranteed a non-losing season.

[samhain]

(09-24-2023, 01:34 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Same thing they said at the end of the 2021 collapse when they finished the season 12-20 to miss the playoffs.

Then lost 100 in '22.

- - - - - -

The Reds had a 1.5 game lead in the division heading into August this year. Now they're not even guaranteed a non-losing season.

True, but it's not exactly apples and oranges.  


Ownership began selling off the roster immediately after the lockout was resolved in 22.  That won't happen this year, and there's a lot of controllable talent on the rise.  Almost every one of the current players is dirt cheap, so there's not a lot of motivation to sell.

I think the major question when it comes to this team's direction, however unfortunate, is which path management will elect to take in the offseason.  

They won't sell off wholesale chunks, but some guys could be on the block.  More importantly, with the promise shown in June and July, will they add the pieces that the team obviously needs to maintain success over a full season?  It's not hard.  Bullpen arms are not exactly the most expensive free agents.  Middle of rotation innings eaters are easily affordable for teams with the kind of cap space the Reds will have.  Realistically, they could probably even afford a legit power bat for the middle of the order, although they almost certainly won't pay for one.  

They can't put everything on their young rotation over the course of a full year.  All of those guys have been hurt to varying degrees.  Abbott hasn't, but they put a shit ton of innings on him when he was the defacto ace, so it's something to watch.  They need their Arroyo/Miley to eat innings and steady the ship when the young guys have their ups and downs.  

After this week, I feel like another late inning arm is on the list as well.  Diaz showed fatigue late.  They need another guy they can give the ball to late to lock in leads.  Ian Gibaut and Alex Young had some contributions, but they ain't it.  Not in high-leverage situations.

Ownership needs to take note of the Bengals situation over the last few years.  Build a team and the city will fill seats and buy tons of merchandise.  It's not the other way around.  Spend money to make money.  Win and be the only thing that matters in Cincinnati for 5 months.  Be good enough that we aren't even paying attention to Zac's non-preseason when it begins.

[The D.O.Z.]

This IS around the time David Bell-led teams start breaking out in hives with their post-season allergies after all. /shrug

[samhain]

Wow. We are actually going to get swept by Pittsburgh. How bout that?

[cinci4life]

(09-24-2023, 04:12 PM)samhain Wrote: Wow. We are actually going to get swept by Pittsburgh.  How bout that?

Or not.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

Got a W, but so did the Cubs, Diamondbacks, and Marlins.

Technically not over, but 2.5 with 5 games left is pretty much over.

- - - - - - -

That long ovation for Votto was great, you could tell he felt it. Almost broke up in the postgame interview on the field too. Such a great player for so many years, we got to see greatness folks, and I can only hope his wait to go into the Hall isn't a long one.

[cinci4life]

(09-24-2023, 09:26 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Got a W, but so did the Cubs, Diamondbacks, and Marlins.

Technically not over, but 2.5 with 5 games left is pretty much over.

- - - - - - -

That long ovation for Votto was great, you could tell he felt it. Almost broke up in the postgame interview on the field too. Such a great player for so many years, we got to see greatness folks, and I can only hope his wait to go into the Hall isn't a long one.

Cubs have Braves and Brewers for their last 6. That's brutal and keeps hope alive.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(09-24-2023, 09:43 PM)cinci4life Wrote: Cubs have Braves and Brewers for their last 6. That's brutal and keeps hope alive.

Reds have Guardians (stupid name) x2, Cardinals x3.
Marlins have Mets x3 and Pirates x3.
Diamondbacks have Yankees x1, White Sox x3, Astros x3.

So according to my rough napkin math (could be wrong) the Reds need to go 5-0 if the Marlins go 4-2, the Cubs go 3-3, and Diamondbacks go 2-5 as they have the tiebreaker over each of them in head-to-head record (I believe only the Giants had the tiebreaker against the Reds). If any 2 of those 3 teams do better than those records, the Reds can't make up the difference despite going 5-0.

[Forever Spinning Vinyl]

(09-24-2023, 10:07 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Reds have Guardians (stupid name) x2, Cardinals x3.
Marlins have Mets x3 and Pirates x3.
Diamondbacks have Yankees x1, White Sox x3, Astros x3.

So according to my rough napkin math (could be wrong) the Reds need to go 5-0 if the Marlins go 4-2, the Cubs go 3-3, and Diamondbacks go 2-5 as they have the tiebreaker over each of them in head-to-head record (I believe only the Giants had the tiebreaker against the Reds). If any 2 of those 3 teams do better than those records, the Reds can't make up the difference despite going 5-0.

Close.
If the Reds go 5-0 and Arizona are 3-4, they'll both end up 85-77, putting the Reds above them. Monday and Thursday are the Reds days off and tomorrow I'm a Yankees fan as the Cubs and Marlins are also off. Thursday, I'm pulling for the White Sox, Mets and Braves. It will be pretty exciting if things fall their way.

If the Cubs can beat the Braves and Brewers enough to get through, good on them, they earned it. If the Reds don't go 5-0 or at least 4-1, they don't deserve to go.

[cinci4life]

Well Arizona lost today in the only game that mattered to us. Arizona/Cubs now tied for 2/3.

[Forever Spinning Vinyl]

(09-25-2023, 06:26 PM)cinci4life Wrote: Well Arizona lost today in the only game that mattered to us. Arizona/Cubs now tied for 2/3.

That's big, not only because of the standings, but because Kelly pitched today and the bullpen blew it. He's their number two starter but he's 1A/1B with Zac Gallen when you match up the stats.

3.38 ERA - 170.2 IP - 138 H - 67 BB - 20 HR - 1.20 WHIP - 12-7 Kelly
3.49 ERA - 203.2 IP - 181 H - 46 BB - 22 HR - 1.11 WHIP - 17-8 Gallen

They are both scheduled one more start each vs Houston who are 2.5 games behind Texas, only a half of a game ahead of Seattle for the last wild card spot and start a three game series in Seattle tonight. Texas will be heading to the Angels for three before heading to Seattle for four games . . . long way of saying that Houston will be motivated to win.

[guyofthetiger]

Votto farewell is sad for me. I met him at a luncheon back in 2007 when he was just a rookie. Never imagined he would have many good years. I wish him the best in the future. Maybe he can coach or be in the booth.

[*ochocincos*]

Reds still 2.5 games out of WC and just 5 games left to play.
Cubs and D-Backs play their 6th game on Thursday when Reds are off.

Unfortunately, with being 2.5 games back, I don't think the Reds make the postseason unless they can win 4 or even 5 games.
We can't expect D-Backs, Cubs, and Marlins to all have losing records the rest of the way out, so playoff hopes are slim.

EDIT - here are the records we need each of the teams above us to have the rest of the way:
Cubs/D-Backs: 2-4 or worse
Marlins: 3-3 or worse

If Cubs and D-Backs go 4-2, Reds can't make the postseason.
If they go 3-3, Reds have to win out.

[cinci4life]

Welp McLain was set to be activated from the IL today but he suffered a set back resulting in his oblique injury now a grade 2 which is more serious. Needless to say he is done for the season.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/09/reds-matt-mclain-shut-down-for-remainder-of-2023-season.html