Do I Take Chase First Overall?!

[BFritz21]

I have the top overall pick in the league with my best friends from childhood/grade school/high school tonight, and I'm torn on who to take.

I'm trying to take emotion out of it, but I can't help but wanting to take Chase with the top pick, even though every site has Jefferson going first.

Chase finished third in red zone targets last season, despite playing in four less games, and ranked 2nd in PPG, trailing Jefferson by only .5 or less (I think).

Our offensive line was also finished 28th last year, but is ranked in the top twelve this season by ESPN and similarly ranked by most sites, give or take three or four spots.

Burrow should just dominate with more time and he'll obviously be looking for Chase, especially on deep balls. If he can complete one deep ball a game and get around one score a game, that would easily make him worth the top pick.

I woke up having changed my mind to the point where I wasn't going to take Chase with the top pick, but all those facts have me wanting to take Chase!

I wasn't sold on Chase overall and I would have chosen the second spot and still took Chase (if that's what I decided), but I love choosing two picks back-to-back and, being in a league from this area (and one Steelers fan), I couldn't risk him being gone.

I doubt Burrow will make it to my 4th round pick, but I'm obviously pulling the trigger and chalking up a title if he does.

Am I wrong about this?

[BFritz21]

I should also mention that our line was so bad that he only had a little over half of the yards downfield in routes run before he caught the ball.

I'm liking the Chase pick more and more!

[hollodero]

Well, I don't know of course and dislike giving fantasy advice, for when I'm wrong I feel guily about it.

I would, however, add to my thoughts that Chase competes with Higgins and Boyd for WR catches. Jefferson competes with Osborn and a rookie. Also, the defenses in the Vikings division are probably worse. And their primary RB is career backup Mattison, so running the ball might be less of a recipe for them then it even is for the Bengals with Mixon. These imho are all reasons to go with Jefferson.

[basballguy]

I suggest taking JJ over Chase. There's no question that we all believe Chase to be equal (or better) than JJ but the rest of your league probably doesn't feel the same way. Draft JJ and see if you can trade him for Chase and something else.

[BFritz21]

(09-05-2023, 02:20 PM)hollodero Wrote: Well, I don't know of course and dislike giving fantasy advice, for when I'm wrong I feel guily about it.

I would, however, add to my thoughts that Chase competes with Higgins and Boyd for WR catches. Jefferson competes with Osborn and a rookie. Also, the defenses in the Vikings division are probably worse. And their primary RB is career backup Mattison, so running the ball might be less of a recipe for them then it even is for the Bengals with Mixon. These imho are all reasons to go with Jefferson.

But you also have to think that Chase has Burrow throwing him the ball and JJ has Cousins, who's good, but is also 35 and nowhere near Burrow's level.

He does have Higgins and Boyd to compete with for targets, but the Vikings also have Addison and Hockenson to compete for targets, as well as a better running game. 

(09-05-2023, 03:52 PM)basballguy Wrote: I suggest taking JJ over Chase.  There's no question that we all believe Chase to be equal (or better) than JJ but the rest of your league probably doesn't feel the same way.  Draft JJ and see if you can trade him for Chase and something else.

You don't think an improved offensive line can improve Chase's stats by one catch and ten yards? That's basically how far he was behind Jefferson in PPG.

Chase is going second if I don't take him first and I'm liking the pick more and more as I discuss it more.

Burrow's going to be so excited with Chase to pretty much play backyard football with since he has so much time.

[CKwi88]

Kind of depends on league settings as Ekeler and CMC also have an argument for no. 1 overall along with JJ.

It’s certainly not the worst homer pick ever. If the league is more casual go for it.

[hollodero]

(09-05-2023, 04:38 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: Chase is going second if I don't take him first and I'm liking the pick more and more as I discuss it more.

Well, in that case you should take him with confidence.

Edit, just to be clear, my opinion shouldn't even matter here, but imho picking Chase is outside the box, but certainly not an apparent mistake. It can be well argued.

[CKwi88]

(09-05-2023, 04:44 PM)hollodero Wrote: Well, in that case you should take him with confidence.

Edit, just to be clear, my opinion shouldn't even matter here, but imho picking Chase is outside the box, but certainly not an apparent mistake. It can be well argued.

It sounded off to me as well. He's got an injury history, his QB has an injury history, he plays on an O with a lot of weapons. That said, when I looked up expert's opinions on who is in the #1OA position his name came up quite a bit. 

We'll see what pick I have tomorrow night!

Brad sign up for the P&R league? 

[hollodero]

(09-05-2023, 05:31 PM)CKwi88 Wrote: It sounded off to me as well. He's got an injury history, his QB has an injury history, he plays on an O with a lot of weapons. That said, when I looked up expert's opinions on who is in the #1OA position his name came up quite a bit. 

We'll see what pick I have tomorrow night!

Brad sign up for the P&R league? 

That is an excellent question.

[BFritz21]

(09-05-2023, 05:31 PM)CKwi88 Wrote: It sounded off to me as well. He's got an injury history, his QB has an injury history, he plays on an O with a lot of weapons. That said, when I looked up expert's opinions on who is in the #1OA position his name came up quite a bit. 

We'll see what pick I have tomorrow night!

Brad sign up for the P&R league? 

The one I'm in says offline draft? Is that this year's league?

(09-05-2023, 05:45 PM)hollodero Wrote: That is an excellent question.

I'm in a P&R league but don't know if it's last year's.

[hollodero]

(09-05-2023, 05:58 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: The one I'm in says offline draft? Is that this year's league?

I'm in a P&R league but don't know if it's last year's.

Nah, that one is broken. There's a replacement and you can register here.

There's a live draft tomorrow 7.30pm

[BFritz21]

(09-05-2023, 06:01 PM)hollodero Wrote: Nah, that one is broken. There's a replacement and you can register here.

There's a live draft tomorrow 7.30pm

Much love.

[*Synric*]

(09-05-2023, 04:40 PM)CKwi88 Wrote: Kind of depends on league settings as Ekeler and CMC also have an argument for no. 1 overall along with JJ.

It’s certainly not the worst homer pick ever. If the league is more casual go for it.

Because of the 49ers offensive scheme if RunCMC stays healthy I can easily see him getting 1000/1000  rushing/receiving with double digit TDs... which would likely make him the highest scoring FF player. The whole healthy thing is a big IF for McCaffrey though.

[*bfine32*]

(09-05-2023, 05:31 PM)CKwi88 Wrote: It sounded off to me as well. He's got an injury history, his QB has an injury history, he plays on an O with a lot of weapons. That said, when I looked up expert's opinions on who is in the #1OA position his name came up quite a bit. 

We'll see what pick I have tomorrow night!

Brad sign up for the P&R league? 

[guyofthetiger]

In my FF league, I took Chase first pick. Loaded my team with Bengals. Burrow, Higgins, Mixon and defense too. Just have fun.

[*ochocincos*]

Jefferson has put up 1400+ yards and 7-10 TDs every season he's played.
The only real threat to take targets away from his is Hockenson.
They'll probably be passing more without Dalvin Cook.

As much as I like Chase, I just can't see the logic in going him over Jefferson other than doing the homer pick and going purely on faith.

Really, the 1st overall pick should be between Jefferson and McCaffrey.

[BFritz21]

(09-06-2023, 01:20 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Jefferson has put up 1400+ yards and 7-10 TDs every season he's played.
The only real threat to take targets away from his is Hockenson.
They'll probably be passing more without Dalvin Cook.

As much as I like Chase, I just can't see the logic in going him over Jefferson other than doing the homer pick and going purely on faith.

Really, the 1st overall pick should be between Jefferson and McCaffrey.

Also have to think that having less weapons means more attention can be paid to Jefferson.