Pay Who?

[Knightmare on Elm Street]

I wanted to save this question for the offseason, but I just couldn't resist. The team is flush with $50 plus million in cap space in 2024. We know Chase is going to get paid this offseason for sure. I know many have expressed their feelings against paying Tee, but my question is who else will/needs to get paid other than Chase and Tee? One can say Jonah, but who knows what we will offer and if he even wants to stay. I, for one am willing to pay Tee to stay because I think he makes our offense that much move lethal. Yes we can draft a receiver high, and yes we have a good track record of doing so. But do we really want to get in the "Burrow can make anyone look good" conversation? If you have top talent, pay you top guys if you can. I understand its a business and the player has to do what is best for them. But lets not discount Tee and what he has brought to this team. He has been a big part of our success and I wish him to stay here if the numbers add up. If not then who?

[SunsetBengal]

(11-01-2023, 01:34 PM)Knightmare on Elm Street Wrote: I wanted to save this question for the offseason, but I just couldn't resist. The team is flush with $50 plus million in cap space in 2024. We know Chase is going to get paid this offseason for sure. I know many have expressed their feelings against paying Tee, but my question is who else will/needs to get paid other than Chase and Tee? One can say Jonah, but who knows what we will offer and if he even wants to stay. I, for one am willing to pay Tee to stay because I think he makes our offense that much move lethal. Yes we can draft a receiver high, and yes we have a good track record of doing so. But do we really want to get in the "Burrow can make anyone look good" conversation? If you have top talent, pay you top guys if you can. I understand its a business and the player has to do what is best for them. But lets not discount Tee and what he has brought to this team. He has been a big part of our success and I wish him to stay here if the numbers add up. If not then who?

I'm pretty sure that Isaac Curtis, the Real 85 did a fantastic breakdown of the expected cap space and likely keep and replace ideas with very realistic number projections, in another thread recently.  Perhaps he'll drop in here and share his thoughts.

[*Synric*]

Logan Wilson, Germaine Pratt, and Devin Harper are the only linebackers under contract in 2024.

[SunsetBengal]

I think that a strong argument could be made for signing DJ Reader for at least another 2 years.

[J24]

(11-01-2023, 04:05 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: I think that a strong argument could be made for signing DJ Reader for at least another 2 years.

I was going going to say this! Reader would be a tough replacement!

[*michaelsean*]

How much of that $50 million available next year is going to disappear the following year with Joe’s contract? It may be there for the first year of a contract, but the following year Joe is going to account for a lot more. I guess you could pay a bunch of money up front.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(11-01-2023, 05:17 PM)J24 Wrote: I was going going to say this! Reader would be a tough replacement!

We’ve looked much better in games without Tee than we have without Reader. Just sayin.

Reader’s age, and injury history does give me a bit of pause though.

[puddycat]

I don't think we're resigning any defensive players until Lou or another DC is under contract. And if we have another DC I can see them asking for a player or two that they see missing.
I don't see Ja'Maar signing this off season with another year on his first contract and then an option year following. His option will be expensive, so I can see it next year.
I also see the Bengals staying with Pollack so I expect a marginal RT signing if Jonah leaves with another OT in the draft.

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

This is a good thread. Yes, it is a tad early, as we din't even know the Cap number for 2024 yet, but we do know we will have a significant amount of space. How the team, our impending FA starters play the rest of the way, will determine our direction next season (Higgins, Boyd, Jonah, I Smith, Reader, Chido, & Adomitis). And is some cases, the backups (DJ Turner, Battle, Hudson, Iosivas, Chuck Sizzle, etc).

But having run the numbers, I brlieve we have the space to:
1) Tag or sign Higgins ($23 mil hit for a tag)
2) Sign Reader to a 2-3 year extension ($15 mil cap hit)

And have enough left over to bring back at least one of Jonah, Boyd, or Chido on a $15 mil (Jonah) or $10-ish (Boyd, Chido) cap hit. Or pay for a legit TE1 starter. If things go our way (higher cap or more favorable deals), we could get 2 of those signings done. If thing really break our way (higher cap AND favorable deals), it could be 3.

Things could go a number of different ways. It is a good OT & WR draft class. Some good Day 2 NT types there. TE is a little weak. Etc. But we do know some things.

I. Who We Have signed.

Who we have signed. We have 36 guys who are currently on roster/IR signed for next year. 37 if you count Maxwell, but he was a PS guy. Even counting his salary but not his slot, we have 17 openings. Breakdown is like this.

A. Starters: 18/25 signed. $155,945,450 in cap. $9,616,012 per (O&D only).

Signed: Burrow, Mixon, Chase, O. Brown, Volson, Karras, Cappa; Hendrickson, BJ Hill, Hubbard, Wilson, Pratt, CTB, Hilton, Scott, D. Hill; McPherson, Robbins.

FA: Higgins, Boyd, I. Smith, J. Williams; Reader, Awuzie; Adomitis (ERFA).

B. Reserves: 18/28-29 signed. $23,799,299 in Cap. $1.322 per player.

Signed: C. Brown, Evans, Iosivas, C. Jones, Carman, D. Smith, T. Hill; Ossai, C. Sample, Murphy, Carter, Tufele, Harper, Turner, Ivey, J. Davis, Battle, Anderson.

FAs: Browning, T. Williams, Irwin, I. Smith, D. Sample, Wilcox, Hudson, Ford, Scharping; Tupou, ADG, Bailey, Bachie.

C. Total Cap (36 players): $179,744,749.
-----------------------

II. 2024 NFL Salary Cap Estimates:
A. Spotrac: $240,500,000
B. OTC: $256,000,000

III. Base Cap Space 2024:
A. Spotrac: $60,755,251
B. OTC: $76,255,251

IV. Plus Rollover Minus Dead Money ($12,289,646-$1,775,689)
A. Spotrac: $71,269,208
B: OTC: $86,768,208

That is a LOT of cap room, either way. Of course, we have 17 spots to fill. A rookie draft class to pay. And some big money decisions. But let's start here. Somewhere between $71.3 (Spotrac) and $86.8 (OTC) in space with 17 spots open.

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

Again, those numbers may move a bit. We could have more guys hit IR & have to make new signings which decrease our rollover cap a bit. Maybe we do notctetain a couple signed guys next year and incur some dead cap $$$. Of course, we could also replace some higher salary reseves with cheaper options, too (Carman at over $2 mil). But, for now, let's assume we are where we are now. Somewhere between $71 mil and $87 mil with 17 openings.

I. Working Assumptions.

A. We won't spend big for reserve players.
B. Most/all of our reserve FA will not cost a lot to retain, if we want.
C. Most/all of our draft picks make the team.
D. We generally don't cut guys under contract.
E. To the extent this is wrong, it won't have a large impact on the cap.

Murphy & Carman are our highest paid reserves, the only ones over $2 mil. The average salary of our 18 signed reserves for next year is a smidge over $1.3 mil. We did cut Collins this year, but that is rare.

ADG, Scharping, Ford, and Irwin are probably the priciest potential reserve FAs. I don't see any over $1.5 mil, really. Under $2 mil for all, if we want them.

II. Draft Cap Impacts

We have 9 draft picks and a draft pool salary of $10,726,283. That needs to come off the cap space. For now, assume they are all reserves. They won't be, but humor me.

A. Spotrac Space: $60,532,925. 8 open spots. 7 starters, 1 reserve.
B. OTC Space: $76,032,925. 8 open spots. 7 starters, 1 reserve.

Starting spots open: WR2, WR3, TE, RT, NT, CB1, LS.

III. More Assumptions:

A. Assume DJ Turner steps in for Chido. 6 starters, 2 reserves. Still 8.
B. Assume Adomitis (LS) and the 2 other reserves sign for around the $1.3 mil average, and subtract $4 mil for those 3 spots. 5 spits open

C. New Cap Reality with only 5 open spots: WR2, WR3, TE1, RT, NT.
---Spotrac: 56,532,925
---OTC: $72,032,925

D. Pay Reader & Tag Tee.

Those two are the best of the FAs in my book. The hardest for a rookie to replace right away. Our best run defender and our only proven WR with size.

Worst case, we cannot get a deal done & have to tag Tee, taking a $23 mil cap hit. And Reader's cap hit is $15 mil. That's $38 mil.

Spotrac: $18,532,925.
OTC: $34,032,925.

If you factor in a Chase extension signing bonus ($6 mil) and whatever cushion we want/PS hit (say $7 mil total), things are getting tight. Not enough for Jonah nor Boyd or even Chido. But enough for a decent FA TE, for sure. We'd have to draft a RT and WR3 in this scenario, + a CB4, most likely. But if Reader's hit is only, say, $12 mil, and we get a Higgins deal done with a cap hit of $20 mil, then we likely have enough to bring Boyd/Chido back. Draft RT, TE, and/or CB4.

But look at a rosier OTC cap scenario. Even backing out Chase + some cushion + $4 mil for the PS, we still have $21 mil in space. That's Jonah + a FA TE or Boyd + Chido/TE FA. Heck, if Higgins comes in at $20 and Reader $12 with some creative structuring, we have $27 mil to solve RT, WR3, TE, CB4. That is Jonah +1 for sure, or possibly all the other 3.

Sorry for the length. But my point is, tagging Tee & signing Reader does not cripple us. We are likely looking to fill WR3, TE, RT, and CB4 at that point. We can sign at least one, probably two. Three in a best case scenario.

[007BengalsFan]

I think we need to extend Reader for a couple more years and draft his replacement. If you let Reader walk away, who do we have in the middle other than BJ Hill? Lou's defense bails out this team a lot. In the last couple of years he has already lost several key players like Ogunjobi, Bates, Bell, Apple. You cant keep taking away key defensive players and expect Lou to make miracles. No team is wining the Super Bowl by offense alone, not K.C. not Philadelphia not San Francisco. We cant keep weakening the defense and expect to win the Super Bowl. It all starts in the trenches with the defensive line.

I love having Tee on the team but he needs to be tagged and traded in the off season. That 23 million could be better spent to improve the team in other areas plus you can get a 1st round pick to use for his long term replacement at a much lower cost.

[schroomytunes]

This will be an interesting offseason for sure. We will more than likely have 9 draft picks next year so here's my take:

Big moves:

1) extend DJ Reader for 2-3 more years.
2) Tag tee Higgins
3) Extend McPherson 4 yrs

Minor depth guys: (resigned)
1) Adomitis
2) Irwin
3) T.Williams
4) ADG
5) Bailey
6) Scharping
7) Hudson

Let Walk:

1) Jonah Williams- draft RT in rd 1 (Tyler Guyton- Oklahoma)
2) Tyler Boyd- Charlie Jones is already here.
3) Chidobe Awuzie- DJ Turner already here.
4) Irv Smith
5) Drew Sample

FA's

1) TE- Adam Trautman- as a #2 guy draft (Cade Stover-Ohio St)

- I would focus on extending our own and looking for the draft to fill in at depth positions

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

Can't let Tee walk for nothing, so I think he gets tagged. I would trade him after the tag, though as you just can't sink that much money into a QB and 2 WRs without the rest of the team suffering for it.

-If Reader stays healthy this year, you almost have to re-sign him.
-If you don't bring back Boyd on an inexpensive deal you should sign a different mid-tier FA WR along the lines of Donovan Peoples-Jones, Curtis Samuel, or Josh Reynolds on a lower cost deal to pair with another 3rd or 4th round WR.
-Sign a TE who isn't terrible, they have 0 TEs under contract after this season. Also need to draft one, too.
-Look at the FA market for a LG or C. Volson ain't it. Ideally sign a good C (Matt Hennessy? , move Karras to LG where he is better, and then you've improved two spots. I think the LG FA next offseason is stronger than C, though.

The money will vanish quickly even with trading Higgins. Also probably need to add 1 vet depth guy at CB with Awuzie leaving.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(11-01-2023, 01:34 PM)Knightmare on Elm Street Wrote: I wanted to save this question for the offseason, but I just couldn't resist. The team is flush with $50 plus million in cap space in 2024. We know Chase is going to get paid this offseason for sure. I know many have expressed their feelings against paying Tee, but my question is who else will/needs to get paid other than Chase and Tee? One can say Jonah, but who knows what we will offer and if he even wants to stay. I, for one am willing to pay Tee to stay because I think he makes our offense that much move lethal. Yes we can draft a receiver high, and yes we have a good track record of doing so. But do we really want to get in the "Burrow can make anyone look good" conversation? If you have top talent, pay you top guys if you can. I understand its a business and the player has to do what is best for them. But lets not discount Tee and what he has brought to this team. He has been a big part of our success and I wish him to stay here if the numbers add up. If not then who?

I would pay DJ Reader #1 to stick around, we don't have his replacement here.

We might have Tee's replacement in Iosivas and if not, we are really good at drafting WR's.

Might just tag Tee, wouldn't cost much more anyway and we could always trade him after we tag him and get something for him.

We don't have Jonah's replacement so I would at the very least try and bring him back at RT or add someone else in FA to play there.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(11-10-2023, 03:40 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: I would pay DJ Reader #1 to stick around, we don't have his replacement here.

We might have Tee's replacement in Iosivas and if not, we are really good at drafting WR's.

Might just tag Tee, wouldn't cost much more anyway and we could always trade him after we tag him and get something for him.

We don't have Jonah's replacement so I would at the very least try and bring him back at RT or add someone else in FA to play there.

It will be much more than the 2023 number. All of the exploding WR cap hits are going to make the WR tag numbers explode.

Top-5 WR Cap Hits 2024:
Keenan Allen, $34.7m
Mike Williams, $32.5m  (One of those two will likely be gone.)
Tyreek Hill, $31m
Cooper Kupp, $29.8m
Deebo Samuel, $28.6m
Stefon Diggs, $27.9m (If one of the two Chargers are gone he'd be the new #5)

So all of those will really kick up the franchise tag number even if we're talking a 3-5 year average. The franchise tag for Tee in 2024 is projected to be $22.9m. With a projected $240.5m salary cap, that's a little over 9.5% of your total salary cap for your #2 WR.

[007BengalsFan]

(11-10-2023, 03:40 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: ...Might just tag Tee, wouldn't cost much more anyway and we could always trade him after we tag him and get something for him...

The problem with that approach is Tee would first have to sign the franchise tag before we could trade him.  Tee could do like Bates did and wait until a week before the season starts to sign the franchise tag so the Bengals wouldnt get any draft picks until 2025 and that's if Tee wants to be traded. If not, he could just refuse to sign the franchise offer saying he isnt going to sign because the team would trade him  

Also, with Tee being hurt every year and his receiving numbers going down this year, what is his value to other teams at this point?  The Bengals could have got a lot of value out of Tee this past spring if they had made the trade when all this talk was first happening.   Now what do they get out of him? 

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(11-10-2023, 04:13 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: It will be much more than the 2023 number. All of the exploding WR cap hits are going to make the WR tag numbers explode.

Top-5 WR Cap Hits 2024:
Keenan Allen, $34.7m
Mike Williams, $32.5m  (One of those two will likely be gone.)
Tyreek Hill, $31m
Cooper Kupp, $29.8m
Deebo Samuel, $28.6m
Stefon Diggs, $27.9m (If one of the two Chargers are gone he'd be the new #5)

So all of those will really kick up the franchise tag number even if we're talking a 3-5 year average. The franchise tag for Tee in 2024 is projected to be $22.9m. With a projected $240.5m salary cap, that's a little over 9.5% of your total salary cap for your #2 WR.

Didn't know Tee would that expensive on the Tag. I did say it would cost much more to extend him which is accurate.

Thanks for the numbers TLL. After seeing them I think we ought to just draft our next #2 WR behind Chase.

(11-10-2023, 05:52 PM)007BengalsFan Wrote: The problem with that approach is Tee would first have to sign the franchise tag before we could trade him.  Tee could do like Bates did and wait until a week before the season starts to sign the franchise tag so the Bengals wouldnt get any draft picks until 2025 and that's if Tee wants to be traded.  If not, he could just refuse to sign the franchise offer saying he isnt going to sign because the team would trade him  

Also, with Tee being hurt every year and his receiving numbers going down this year, what is his value to other teams at this point?  The Bengals could have got a lot of value out of Tee this past spring if they had made the trade when all this talk was first happening.   Now what do they get out of him? 

Yeah, nice post 007, Tee gets banged up way too much for my liking anyways. Love the guy but we need to concentrate on keeping 
the trenches strong in FA and drafting WR's as we are much better at Drafting them than other positions.