Reds in trade talks for Bieber/Glasnow

[*ochocincos*]

Reds are listed as one of the few teams in talks with CLE for Shane Bieber and/or TB for Tyler Glasnow.

https://blogredmachine.com/posts/reds-rumors-mlb-insider-in-active-trade-talks-guardians-pitcher-shane-bieber

I wonder if this only manifested now that Sonny Gray just signed with the Cardinals yesterday?
You'd have to think the Reds were in talks with Gray prior to him signing with the Cards.

Either way, getting Bieber/Glasnow would be great, and the Reds have the payroll in 2024 to take one on for the final year of their contract.

[CJD]

Hopefully, we don't give away any major prospects for the final year of either player's control.
Our top prospects are:
Noelvi Marte
Rhett Lowder
Edwin Arroyo
Connor Phillips
Cam Collier
Chase Petty
Sal Stewart
Ricardo Cabrera
Carlos Jorge
Alfredo Duno

I'd be uncomfortable if any of the top 5 were involved in this trade.

I also think Sal Stewart, Alfredo Duno, and Carlos Jorge are young guys on the upturn and could break out this season, so I'd be bummed if we traded any of them, but realize that may be the cost of doing business.

[The D.O.Z.]

(11-28-2023, 01:08 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Hopefully, we don't give away any major prospects for the final year of arbitration of either player.
Our top prospects are:
Noelvi Marte
Rhett Lowder
Edwin Arroyo
Connor Phillips
Cam Collier
Chase Petty
Sal Stewart
Ricardo Cabrera
Carlos Jorge
Alfredo Duno

I'd be uncomfortable if any of the top 5 were involved in this trade.

I also think Sal Stewart, Alfredo Duno, and Carlos Jorge are young guys on the upturn and could break out this season, so I'd be bummed if we traded any of them, but realize that may be the cost of doing business.

Out of all of them, Marte makes the most sense seeing as we can put India back at 3rd and still field a really good INF. I'm with you on not wanting any of those top 5 in the deal, but to get quality, you have to give up some as well. Wouldn't be too upset if it lands us a dependable TOR arm with either control or an immediate 2-3 year extension. 

[CJD]

(11-28-2023, 02:23 PM)The D.O.Z. Wrote: Out of all of them, Marte makes the most sense seeing as we can put India back at 3rd and still field a really good INF. I'm with you on not wanting any of those top 5 in the deal, but to get quality, you have to give up some as well. Wouldn't be too upset if it lands us a dependable TOR arm with either control or an immediate 2-3 year extension. 

Oof, Noelvi Marte is going to be a star in this game. He's not even really a prospect anymore. He showed he can hit in the majors and is good on the basepaths and on defense. In 123 PA, he batted .316/.366/.456 and ended the season on a 16 game hit streak (and he reached base safely in 22 straight games). Trading him for a rental like Glasnow or Bieber would be a painful overpay.

You mentioned Jonathan India. He'd actually be a better offer for Glasnow or Bieber than Marte would be. He is not an elite player like Glasnow or Bieber, but he has 2 more years of control than either of them. I could get behind that trade.

Then we could keep our infield as CES, McLain, Elly, Marte. 

[Goalpost]

Locked in: RH Hunter Greene, LH Andrew Abbott, LH Nick Lodolo, RH Graham Ashcraft

Maybe: LH Brandon Williamson

This seems to be the way a few sites project our current rotation. Williamson as possible trade bait. But I would not deal any pitching, because, pitchers are so fragile. Williamson gave us 120 innings last year, not bad imo, and he's only 25.

If a trade of a hitter is not acceptable in value for a pitcher, then you sign a FA. Right now, the money is freed up.

[samhain]

I think both Glasnow and Bieber are a little on the fragile side. Glasnow because he's always been injury prone, and Beiber because he's had some elbow problems of late. He could have Tommy John in his future.

There's also the issue of limited control and money. Glasnow is a lot, and Beiber is about half as much, both for just a season.

If I'm giving up any decent prospects, I'm going after Cease. He has 2 years of control and I trust him quite a bit more. Frankly I like him better as a pitcher as well.

Also wouldn't mind the taking a crack at Rodriguez. The downside with that is that he's going to get a lot of money for a lot of years.

Side note: I think Stroman is basically perfect for our park. He'd be a less splashy potentially shrewd signing.

[kevin]

(11-28-2023, 11:54 AM)ochocincos Wrote: Reds are listed as one of the few teams in talks with CLE for Shane Bieber and/or TB for Tyler Glasnow.

https://blogredmachine.com/posts/reds-rumors-mlb-insider-in-active-trade-talks-guardians-pitcher-shane-bieber

I wonder if this only manifested now that Sonny Gray just signed with the Cardinals yesterday?
You'd have to think the Reds were in talks with Gray prior to him signing with the Cards.

Either way, getting Bieber/Glasnow would be great, and the Reds have the payroll in 2024 to take one on for the final year of their contract.

They get paid way too much

Reds after getting out from Moose and Votto huge contracts need to set a low payroll figure and try to run at a profit.  They can then up payroll each year if they run at a profit, and in a few years be a World Series type team.  

Reds have good young players that will again make for a fun and exciting season.  If Votto plays his option year, it is nothing compared to what he has been paid per year. 

I don't want to see the Reds spend money on more Mega Million Players.  Not at this time, NO.   Reds took a financial beating in no fans 2020 Covid and few fans 2021 and 2022.   Reds got fans back in 2023 and now out from under Moose and Votto high paid contracts.  

If the Reds are smart, they will try to get back on track making money for the Future.  
If the Reds are stupid, they will spend money foolishly on more HUGE contracts right away. 

Reds can NOT spend money like Yankees, Dodgers, Angels, and some other Deep Pocket teams.  The Goal should be to Make Money in 2024, not a goal of World Series which is not realistic.  Reds have a good young bunch of players that are fun to watch, but not insane salaries, and theses young players will Make Reds Money in 2024 and also be fun for fans to watch.  Bring back the Viking helmet, fans love it, and it don't cost 10 million dollars. 

In 2020 Covid, many teams dumped minor league players to cover their money losses. Rays and Reds grabbed up these minor league players being cut, and Reds then started dumping veteran payroll. In 2023, we saw these minor league players start to come on, and Reds have a ton more in minors coming up. THAT is the way to go for now. Stay the course on Youth Movement. Stay away for old Vets with Huge Insane price tags.

[*ochocincos*]

(11-28-2023, 09:17 PM)kevin Wrote: They get paid way too much

Reds after getting out from Moose and Votto huge contracts need to set a low payroll figure and try to run at a profit.  They can then up payroll each year if they run at a profit, and in a few years be a World Series type team.  

Reds have good young players that will again make for a fun and exciting season.  If Votto plays his option year, it is nothing compared to what he has been paid per year. 

I don't want to see the Reds spend money on more Mega Million Players.  Not at this time, NO.   Reds took a financial beating in no fans 2020 Covid and few fans 2021 and 2022.   Reds got fans back in 2023 and now out from under Moose and Votto high paid contracts.  

If the Reds are smart, they will try to get back on track making money for the Future.  
If the Reds are stupid, they will spend money foolishly on more HUGE contracts right away. 

Reds can NOT spend money like Yankees, Dodgers, Angels, and some other Deep Pocket teams.  The Goal should be to Make Money in 2024, not a goal of World Series which is not realistic.  Reds have a good young bunch of players that are fun to watch, but not insane salaries, and theses young players will Make Reds Money in 2024 and also be fun for fans to watch.  Bring back the Viking helmet, fans love it, and it don't cost 10 million dollars. 

In 2020 Covid, many teams dumped minor league players to cover their money losses.   Rays and Reds grabbed up these minor league players being cut, and Reds then started dumping veteran payroll.  In 2023, we saw these minor league players start to come on, and Reds have a ton more in minors coming up.  THAT is the way to go for now.  Stay the course on Youth Movement.  Stay away for old Vets with Huge Insane price tags.

If they do the bolded, you're going to see (some of) this young core at or approaching the end of their rookie contracts.
Reds need to strike now while they have so many guys on the cheap.
Also, when the team is competing for division lead/wildcard spot, fans will show up, which will increase that revenue.
If the Reds are out of it, less fans will go and they won't have as much to put toward the future year(s).

Right now, the Reds are only at $38 mill of payroll.
They should easily be able to afford one, if not two good SPs along with a couple good relievers.
Heck, they could probably afford one decent hitter too for around $5-15 mill once they get their pitching payroll solidified.

[cinci4life]

Reds signed Emilo Pagan to 2yr $16mill deal.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/reds-sign-emilio-pagan-two-years.html

[*ochocincos*]

(11-29-2023, 06:47 PM)cinci4life Wrote: Reds signed Emilo Pagan to 2yr $16mill deal.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/reds-sign-emilio-pagan-two-years.html

Always willing to get some reliever help.
Still wanna see a SP added though to bolster the rotation.
I think Greene, Abbott, and Ashcraft make for a solid foundation but I'd love to really get a good SP1/SP2 to go along with them. Then Phillips can battle Williamson and Lodolo for the final rotation spot.

[*bengalfan74*]

(11-29-2023, 06:57 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Always willing to get some reliever help.
Still wanna see a SP added though to bolster the rotation.
I think Greene, Abbott, and Ashcraft make for a solid foundation but I'd love to really get a good SP1/SP2 to go along with them. Then Phillips can battle Williamson and Lodolo for the final rotation spot.

In my opinion if they're going to take winning this coming season seriously? They have to get an upper tier starter to add to our current bunch.

[grampahol]

I don't particularly trust either Lodolo or Greene for that matter to make it through the first few months of the season. They both have great stuff, but stuff doesn't win championships from the couch.. We'll soon see. 

[*ochocincos*]

(11-29-2023, 08:57 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: In my opinion if they're going to take winning this coming season seriously? They have to get an upper tier starter to add to our current bunch.

From a rotation perspective? Absolutely.
SP1 or SP2.

I don't really consider any of Greene, Ashcraft, or Abbott to be an ace, personally.

[*bengalfan74*]

(12-01-2023, 02:12 PM)ochocincos Wrote: From a rotation perspective? Absolutely.
SP1 or SP2.

I don't really consider any of Greene, Ashcraft, or Abbott to be an ace, personally.

Yes sir

If and it's a (big if with current ownership) they plan on making a run at the post season they have to.... HAVE TO get better at starting pitching. 

Greene, Ashcrfaft, Lodolo, and Abbott could make up a solid 3,4 and 5 starters rotation? And maybe, just maybe there's a #2 among them? 10-12 game winner, close to 200 innings, 3.50 ERA. But I'm just not sure?

I don't feel unless somebody really takes a big leap forward we have a true ACE on staff. 15+ game winner, 3.00 ERA, 200+ innings. A guy who can regularly pitch 6+ innings, stop losing streaks etc.

We can't be "in the mix" come September with our starters only pitching like 110 innings all season. Our bullpen will be toast again.

[SunsetBengal]

(12-01-2023, 03:54 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Yes sir

If and it's a (big if with current ownership) they plan on making a run at the post season they have to.... HAVE TO get better at starting pitching. 

Greene, Ashcrfaft, Lodolo, and Abbott could make up a solid 3,4 and 5 starters rotation? And maybe, just maybe there's a #2 among them? 10-12 game winner, close to 200 innings, 3.50 ERA. But I'm just not sure?

I don't feel unless somebody really takes a big leap forward we have a true ACE on staff. 15+ game winner, 3.00 ERA, 200+ innings. A guy who can regularly pitch 6+ innings, stop losing streaks etc.

We can't be "in the mix" come September with our starters only pitching like 110 innings all season. Our bullpen will be toast again.

Maybe just invest in a couple of solid, long relievers?

[*ochocincos*]

(12-01-2023, 03:54 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Yes sir

If and it's a (big if with current ownership) they plan on making a run at the post season they have to.... HAVE TO get better at starting pitching. 

Greene, Ashcrfaft, Lodolo, and Abbott could make up a solid 3,4 and 5 starters rotation? And maybe, just maybe there's a #2 among them? 10-12 game winner, close to 200 innings, 3.50 ERA. But I'm just not sure?

I don't feel unless somebody really takes a big leap forward we have a true ACE on staff. 15+ game winner, 3.00 ERA, 200+ innings. A guy who can regularly pitch 6+ innings, stop losing streaks etc.

We can't be "in the mix" come September with our starters only pitching like 110 innings all season. Our bullpen will be toast again.

The problem is going to come down to cost.

I think the Reds were right to not try to match or exceed $25 mill a year that Gray got from the Cardinals, as much as I like him.
He's a $20 mill a year max guy to me.

What I think is going to happen is Reds are letting the initial SP market settle some and then will look to get someone at a more reasonable price, or trade for someone.

It does sound like they may try Martinez as a starter at first, but I personally don't see him being a SP1 or SP2 and would be better relegated to the bullpen.

[The D.O.Z.]

The more I look at Bieber and Glasnow under the hood, the less I want either. Go look at Glasnow's injury history and innings pitched per season. And he's making $25 million per?! No frickin way do I want that. Bieber..just came out saying he would sign an extension with whoever trades for him. Now go look at his injury history and steadily declining numbers (over the past 5 years most of his pitcher-important stats have steadily declined) Of course you'll sign an extension, so you still get paid if you suck! Noooooo thank you!

At first, I was okay with spending high prospects for a bonafide TOR guy. That's the price for quality TOR arms. But if this is gonna be the quality...no thank you. Build up that bullpen. Bell loves pulling starters after 4-5 anyway. Go get another Martinez type or two. I know that doesn't sound sexy but a rotation of Abbott, Greene, Williamson, Ashcraft, **long reliever(s) day** could really work. If you have two long relievers, you can spot start either of them on that fifth day depending on their recent usage or game time situation. Martinez would be LR1, maybe go get an opposite-side arm to pair with him. Or stay in-house with a Phillips or Richardson.

Now, if they want to trade an upper tier prospect in a package that gets us Dylan Cease or his equivalent..go for it.

[samhain]

(12-02-2023, 04:16 PM)The D.O.Z. Wrote: The more I look at Bieber and Glasnow under the hood, the less I want either. Go look at Glasnow's injury history and innings pitched per season. And he's making $25 million per?! No frickin way do I want that. Bieber..just came out saying he would sign an extension with whoever trades for him. Now go look at his injury history and steadily declining numbers (over the past 5 years most of his pitcher-important stats have steadily declined) Of course you'll sign an extension, so you still get paid if you suck! Noooooo thank you!

At first, I was okay with spending high prospects for a bonafide TOR guy. That's the price for quality TOR arms. But if this is gonna be the quality...no thank you. Build up that bullpen. Bell loves pulling starters after 4-5 anyway. Go get another Martinez type or two. I know that doesn't sound sexy but a rotation of Abbott, Greene, Williamson, Ashcraft, **long reliever(s) day** could really work. If you have two long relievers, you can spot start either of them on that fifth day depending on their recent usage or game time situation. Martinez would be LR1, maybe go get an opposite-side arm to pair with him.  Or stay in-house with a Phillips or Richardson.

Now, if they want to trade an upper tier prospect in a package that gets us Dylan Cease or his equivalent..go for it.

Same here.    Getting one year of a frontline starter with red flags for precious prospect capital seems less than brilliant.  Bieber has elbow inflammation last year.  He could be TJ surgery waiting to happen.  

The Reds have at least 6, maybe 7 candidates for the rotation going in to 2024.  Greene, Abbot, Ashcraft is a solid 1-3.  There are only 2 spots left for Lodolo, Williamson, Martinez, Phillps, etc.  Lowder may or may not rise through the ranks by the end of the year.  

The smart money, to me, would be spent on one more high end LH reliever and a RH power bat than can play every day in RF.  Prepare the pen as if you're going to use them a lot, because you most definitely are.  Take pressure off of the young staff and let them develop on cheap rookie deals.  Get guys that can come in after 4 or 5 innings and steady the ship for a few innings.  You use these guys every day in high leverage situations and they come at a far less steep price than frontline starters.

Developing pitching is the key to sustained success.  If you can do it in house, you save a ton of money and can sustain success even in smaller markets.  You avoid the risk of giving huge contracts to proven FAs.

If I unload prospects of significance, I want Arozarena.  You get him to play in RF every day for the next 3 years.  Huge impact on the overall roster.  He makes the batting order lethal.  I'd also be okay with signing Teoscar Hernandez and keeping the prospects.

One more RP and a no-doubt stud RF would be the best way forward IMO.

[The D.O.Z.]

(12-03-2023, 02:31 PM)samhain Wrote: Same here.    Getting one year of a frontline starter with red flags for precious prospect capital seems less than brilliant.  Bieber has elbow inflammation last year.  He could be TJ surgery waiting to happen.  

The Reds have at least 6, maybe 7 candidates for the rotation going in to 2024.  Greene, Abbot, Ashcraft is a solid 1-3.  There are only 2 spots left for Lodolo, Williamson, Martinez, Phillps, etc.  Lowder may or may not rise through the ranks by the end of the year.  

The smart money, to me, would be spent on one more high end LH reliever and a RH power bat than can play every day in RF.  Prepare the pen as if you're going to use them a lot, because you most definitely are.  Take pressure off of the young staff and let them develop on cheap rookie deals.  Get guys that can come in after 4 or 5 innings and steady the ship for a few innings.  You use these guys every day in high leverage situations and they come at a far less steep price than frontline starters.

Developing pitching is the key to sustained success.  If you can do it in house, you save a ton of money and can sustain success even in smaller markets.  You avoid the risk of giving huge contracts to proven FAs.

If I unload prospects of significance, I want Arozarena.  You get him to play in RF every day for the next 3 years.  Huge impact on the overall roster.  He makes the batting order lethal.  I'd also be okay with signing Teoscar Hernandez and keeping the prospects.

One more RP and a no-doubt stud RF would be the best way forward IMO.

I like your idea on Aro, but feel like Benson / Fraley have earned the LH at bats. I really like Benson. He vastly improved his approach after his terrible start and subsequent send-down. He's a patient hitter with a good eye, and I would really hate to bench him in favor of a full time RF. I would say just move he and Fraley to LF but Benson doesn't play good defense or take decent angles out there compared to RF.

[guyofthetiger]

Glasnow to the Dodgers. Might as well say they are the new champs.