Full Off-Season and Mock 2.0

[Whatever]

(12-08-2023, 03:20 PM)Hammerstripes Wrote: A lot of those guy are 30 or older.  Most teams view Tee as a legit 1.  There will be a line for him if he's available.  We can work out a trade and have him off the books on day 1.  It won't be an issue.  You know his agent already has something in the works.  

I still don't see how having his tag costs us that much until he gets moved.

Going into this season, teams may have seen Tee as a WR1.  However, he's been held under 40 receiving yards in 5 of the 8 games he's played this year.  And this season has done nothing to assuage his durability concerns.  In fact, quite the opposite.  He's 147th in the league in Passer Rating When Targeted.  To put that in perspective, Irv Smith Jr. is 99th.  And he has no real accolades to fall back on from previous seasons.  Never been an All Pro.  Never made the NFL 100.  Never even made a Pro Bowl.  And you think someone will give up a 1st AND make him one of the Top 5 highest paid WR's in the game?

There's tons of risk with attempting to tag and trade him.  The only team we know called about him was Carolina.  We know they didn't offer a 1st because they don't have one.  With him now on pace to not even hit 600 yards this season, we think somebody will come with a 1st and back up the Brink's truck for him?

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(12-08-2023, 06:07 PM)Whatever Wrote: Going into this season, teams may have seen Tee as a WR1.  However, he's been held under 40 receiving yards in 5 of the 8 games he's played he's played this year.  And this season has done nothing to assuage his durability concerns.  In fact, quite the opposite.  He's 147th in the league in Passer Rating When Targeted.  To put that in perspective, Irv Smith Jr. is 99th.  And he has no real accolades to fall back on from previous seasons.  Never been an All Pro.  Never made the NFL 100.  Never even made a Pro Bowl.  And you think someone will give up a 1st AND make him one of the Top 5 highest paid WR's in the game?

There's tons of risk with attempting to tag and trade him.  The only team we know called about him was Carolina.  We know they didn't offer a 1st because they don't have one.  With him now on pace to not even hit 600 yards this season, we think somebody will come with a 1st and back up the Brink's truck for him?

Maybe with this sucky season for Tee we can afford to extend him, yah never know. Have to keep Chase and Reader though 
and add a RT in Free Agency or the Draft early.

[Hammerstripes]

(12-08-2023, 06:07 PM)Whatever Wrote: Going into this season, teams may have seen Tee as a WR1.  However, he's been held under 40 receiving yards in 5 of the 8 games he's played this year.  And this season has done nothing to assuage his durability concerns.  In fact, quite the opposite.  He's 147th in the league in Passer Rating When Targeted.  To put that in perspective, Irv Smith Jr. is 99th.  And he has no real accolades to fall back on from previous seasons.  Never been an All Pro.  Never made the NFL 100.  Never even made a Pro Bowl.  And you think someone will give up a 1st AND make him one of the Top 5 highest paid WR's in the game?

There's tons of risk with attempting to tag and trade him.  The only team we know called about him was Carolina.  We know they didn't offer a 1st because they don't have one.  With him now on pace to not even hit 600 yards this season, we think somebody will come with a 1st and back up the Brink's truck for him?

Yes.  If he wasn't injured this year, I could see teams cooling off on him, but he's young and is considered a #1.  Those guys don't come off very often.  He may not get top 5 money, but he's going to get top 10-15 money.  It's obvious he isn't going to sign here.

Teams would much rather give up a 1 for a guy like Tee than roll the dice on an unproven college guy.

[Whatever]

(12-09-2023, 06:28 PM)Hammerstripes Wrote: Yes.  If he wasn't injured this year, I could see teams cooling off on him, but he's young and is considered a #1.  Those guys don't come off very often.  He may not get top 5 money, but he's going to get top 10-15 money.  It's obvious he isn't going to sign here.

Teams would much rather give up a 1 for a guy like Tee than roll the dice on an unproven college guy.

Tee has never been a WR1.  Some hypothesize that he can be a WR1, but he has never schemed against as such.  He's been injured, but he's also played poorly when healthy.  

If you FT him, the team trading for him will have to give him Top 5 money because Tee's agent will use the FT number as the APY floor for negotiations.  That's why I say that to pull off a tag and trade, you need a team that will give you 1st round compensation AND be willing to pay him Top 5 money.  

[*Synric*]

(12-11-2023, 12:37 PM)Whatever Wrote: Tee has never been a WR1.  Some hypothesize that he can be a WR1, but he has never schemed against as such.  He's been injured, but he's also played poorly when healthy.  

If you FT him, the team trading for him will have to give him Top 5 money because Tee's agent will use the FT number as the APY floor for negotiations.  That's why I say that to pull off a tag and trade, you need a team that will give you 1st round compensation AND be willing to pay him Top 5 money.  

23m might not even be top 10 next off-season. Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, Jalen Waddle, Amon St. Brown, Brandon Aiyuk, Michael Pittman, Nico Collins, CeeDee Lamb(maybe 2025). There is going to be some big time contracts for WR coming up over rhe next couple off-seasons. 23m per year is probabaly where the next range of WRs will sign. Top guys over 30 and the "good but not great WRs" around the 22 to 25m range which is the category you would probabaly slot Tee.

[Whatever]

(12-11-2023, 12:56 PM)Synric Wrote: 23m might not even be top 10 next off-season. Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, Jalen Waddle, Amon St. Brown, Brandon Aiyuk, Michael Pittman, Nico Collins, CeeDee Lamb(maybe 2025). There is going to be some big time contracts for WR coming up over rhe next couple off-seasons. 23m per year is probabaly where the next range of WRs will sign. Top guys over 30 and the "good but not great WRs" around the 22 to 25m range which is the category you would probabaly slot Tee.

I personally get the feeling that Jefferson isn't resigning with the Vikings given the state of the franchise.  If he gets a new deal this off-season, it's because he was traded in a move for a QB.  That would be another guy that would jump Higgins as a trade target.

Waddle and Aiyuk play for teams that are already paying WR1's big money, so those guys will most likely play out their rookie deals and/or a FT year.  Or they potentially wind up on the trade block, as well.  Collins doesn't have the best leverage for a WR1 deal considering he had two 400 yard seasons before this one.  St. Brown will have to deal with the fact that slot WR's rarely get top dollar.

Keep in mind that $23 mil APY is going to be the floor for negotiations (if tagged,).  Nothing stops his agent from demanding more.  

[*Synric*]

(12-11-2023, 03:51 PM)Whatever Wrote: I personally get the feeling that Jefferson isn't resigning with the Vikings given the state of the franchise.  If he gets a new deal this off-season, it's because he was traded in a move for a QB.  That would be another guy that would jump Higgins as a trade target.

Waddle and Aiyuk play for teams that are already paying WR1's big money, so those guys will most likely play out their rookie deals and/or a FT year.  Or they potentially wind up on the trade block, as well.  Collins doesn't have the best leverage for a WR1 deal considering he had two 400 yard seasons before this one.  St. Brown will have to deal with the fact that slot WR's rarely get top dollar.

Keep in mind that $23 mil APY is going to be the floor for negotiations (if tagged,).  Nothing stops his agent from demanding more.  

The range of 22 to 26m will be for guys like Tee, Aiyuk, Collins, St. Brown while the 30 to 35m range will be for guys like Jefferson, Chase, Jeudy. Higgins is definitely worth the Tier 2 money.

[Whatever]

(12-11-2023, 04:24 PM)Synric Wrote: The range of 22 to 26m will be for guys like Tee, Aiyuk, Collins, St. Brown while the 30 to 35m range will be for guys like Jefferson, Chase, Jeudy. Higgins is definitely worth the Tier 2 money.

Knowing Tee's agent, he will push to make Higgins the top paid WR in the league at the time of his deal.  

Beyond that, tag and trade scenarios rarely yield what people are hoping for for Higgins.  The only tag and trade in the last several years that yielded a 1st was Frank Clark.  Ngakuae got a 2nd(45th overall) and conditional 5th.  Clowney yielded a 3rd, bust Barkevich Mingo, and a bench player.  Dee Ford was traded for the 63rd overall pick.  The last WR who was tagged/traded was Jarvis Landry.  He only yielded a 4th and a 7th after coming off his 3rd straight Pro Bowl and leading the league in receptions.  

[Hammerstripes]

(12-11-2023, 06:18 PM)Whatever Wrote: Knowing Tee's agent, he will push to make Higgins the top paid WR in the league at the time of his deal.  

Beyond that, tag and trade scenarios rarely yield what people are hoping for for Higgins.  The only tag and trade in the last several years that yielded a 1st was Frank Clark.  Ngakuae got a 2nd(45th overall) and conditional 5th.  Clowney yielded a 3rd, bust Barkevich Mingo, and a bench player.  Dee Ford was traded for the 63rd overall pick.  The last WR who was tagged/traded was Jarvis Landry.  He only yielded a 4th and a 7th after coming off his 3rd straight Pro Bowl and leading the league in receptions.  

You can't just look at tag and trade.  Look at Tyreek Hill and AJ Brown.  Both WRs were moved and they both brought back 1st rounders.

I'm reasonable.  Tee will bring a 1st.  That's it.

[Whatever]

(12-11-2023, 09:07 PM)Hammerstripes Wrote: You can't just look at tag and trade.  Look at Tyreek Hill and AJ Brown.  Both WRs were moved and they both brought back 1st rounders.

I'm reasonable.  Tee will bring a 1st.  That's it.

Tee is not as good as Tyreek Hill or AJ Brown, for one.  Cheetah was a 3xAll Pro and 6xPro Bowler when he was traded.  Higgins hasn't even made a single Pro Bowl.  

For another, you're not taking into account the fact that lose a ton of negotiating leverage when trading a FT player because you need to move them quickly to free up cap space.  Teams know you're desperate to move the player, so they low ball.  AJ Brown still had another year, plus the 5 year option on his contract.  The Titans weren't in a position where they were desperate to move him.  

[*Synric*]

(12-11-2023, 06:18 PM)Whatever Wrote: Knowing Tee's agent, he will push to make Higgins the top paid WR in the league at the time of his deal.  

Beyond that, tag and trade scenarios rarely yield what people are hoping for for Higgins.  The only tag and trade in the last several years that yielded a 1st was Frank Clark.  Ngakuae got a 2nd(45th overall) and conditional 5th.  Clowney yielded a 3rd, bust Barkevich Mingo, and a bench player.  Dee Ford was traded for the 63rd overall pick.  The last WR who was tagged/traded was Jarvis Landry.  He only yielded a 4th and a 7th after coming off his 3rd straight Pro Bowl and leading the league in receptions.  

Can't negotiate the tag 22.9m. As for trade value I would say Tee's value is around the Marquise Brown trade which was a late 1st round value of around pick #26.


Also you are worried that the Bengals will get stuck with Tee on that tag and I'm not. The Bengals will only have one good receiving option headed into the off-season bringing back Tee on that tag for the 2024 season would be one of those "all in for a superbowl" move people scream for every year. A top tier free agent that they only have to give money to for 1 year in a position group they need bodies and doesn't have huge cap hits yet even if they do extend Chase. 

[Whatever]

(12-12-2023, 06:40 PM)Synric Wrote: Can't negotiate the tag 22.9m. As for trade value I would say Tee's value is around the Marquise Brown trade which was a late 1st round value of around pick #26.


Also you are worried that the Bengals will get stuck with Tee on that tag and I'm not. The Bengals will only have one good receiving option headed into the off-season bringing back Tee on that tag for the 2024 season would be one of those "all in for a superbowl" move people scream for every year. A top tier free agent that they only have to give money to for 1 year in a position group they need bodies and doesn't have huge cap hits yet even if they do extend Chase. 

The tag itself is not negotiable.  However, the long term deal that Higgins would have to agree to in order to make a tag and trade a reality is.  And again, his agent will use the FT number as the floor for negotiations.  

Hollywood was coming off a 1000 yard seasons in an offensive system where it was very difficult for WR's to put up numbers.  Can you name a single WR who's netted 1st round compensation coming off a year as bad as Tee is having?  I can't.  

If you're ok with having Tee on a 1 year FT deal for $23 mil, then you should just sign him to a multi-year deal worth $23 mil APY(that is IF Tee and his agent agree).  That way you have flexibility with the contract structure and can retain/add more pieces than if he's just eating up $23 mil in cap space. 

 Aside from all this, for these mock off-seasons, I go through and do a mock free agency, then do a one shot pass through on NFLMockDraftDatabase's sim for "realism" purposes.  That sim does not permit player trades.  The only 7 round sim that I know of that does is NFL Draft Buzz, but I personally don't want to do mock drafts on a sim who's big board is so wonky that I can draft Taliese Fuaga in the 6th.  So a Higgins tag and trade(or a Browning trade if he continues on his tear) will not be addressed in these unless it actually happens in real life.