I think we need to win out to make playoffs

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(12-11-2023, 01:22 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: I just did this as well and have us as they 7th seed playing @Jacksonville in the first round. This is with us winning every game but the Chiefs game. 

I think Houston is going to lose to the Titans this week potentially without Stroud and I can see the Falcons beating Indy. 

If Ridder plays as well as he did yesterday, they very well could beat Indy.

[TheCincinnatiKid]

Bearing in mind I tend to err on the side of pessimism when doing this things... but I assumed we go 3-1 (losing in KC).

I unfortunately had the Texans knocking us out. I previous had us in at 7, but obviously changed the odd result (I think previously, I had the Texans winning their division, but this time it ended up the Jags did).

Ultimately, even at 10-7 we'd be reliant on the right tiebreakers, and we don't hold many really. It'll be really tight even at 3-1, but 4-0 would get us in.

[Brownshoe]

(12-11-2023, 02:17 PM)Wyche Wrote: Same. With that defense and the way Flacco has played, they're gonna be a tough out for anyone.

On top of KC not looking as explosive on offense since their WR aren't looking too good. The Browns also have our number.

[Bengalfan4life27c]

Ideally the self destruct that the Jags are currently on continues we dont have to worry about head to head against Texans if they win division We can have head to head over bills colts and Jags leaves us with Broncos have Lions and 3 other bottom feeders but they are division games and Broncos tend to play down to competition leaves us with our division we win the rematches division record doesn't apply to tie breakers we would split with both browns and steelers so we would more than likely enter common opponents tie breaker 3 -1 with a loss to chiefs 98 percent we in that scenario

[Ell Prez]

Statistically speaking we probably have a a higher probability going 1-3 than 3-1. Besides the Vikings game, will we be favored in any other games? I like our chases to beat Vikings and Pitt. And we could beat KC. But Cleveland has our number.

I also don’t think 10-7 gets us in. I keep reading this statistic of 98% of 10-7 teams make the playoffs, but not when there’s like five 10-7 teams and they all have better divisional and conference records than us.

I think playoffs are still a long shot, but at least we have something to actually watch and scoreboard watch. I thought we would lose out after seeing us lose to Bal and Pitt with Browning. Final 2 games of the year will decide it all, and I think they’re all must win.

[*Nately120*]

(12-11-2023, 04:44 PM)Bengalfan4life27c Wrote: Ideally the self destruct that the Jags are currently on continues we dont have to worry about head to head against Texans if they win division We can have head to head over bills colts and Jags leaves us with Broncos have Lions and 3 other bottom feeders but they are division games and Broncos tend to play down to competition leaves us with our division we win the rematches division record doesn't apply to tie breakers we would split with both browns and steelers so we would more than likely enter common opponents tie breaker 3 -1 with a loss to chiefs 98 percent we in that scenario

The Jaguars are kicking themselves for losing 2 relatively close games in a row, but I think with the Jets bailing them out by beating the Texans they're more focused on winning the division with Trevor Lawrence still relatively healthy.  2 AFC losses in a row don't help them, but I think their main focus is the fact that Trevor Lawrence's season wasn't ended in that game against us.

[Luvnit2]

(12-11-2023, 06:58 PM)Nately120 Wrote: The Jaguars are kicking themselves for losing 2 relatively close games in a row, but I think with the Jets bailing them out by beating the Texans they're more focused on winning the division with Trevor Lawrence still relatively healthy.  2 AFC losses in a row don't help them, but I think their main focus is the fact that Trevor Lawrence's season wasn't ended in that game against us.

If Collins is out for a long time, Texans offense may be in trouble. They lost their rookie for the year last week. Jags lost Kirk so as the year plays out, injuries could impact a number of teams.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(12-11-2023, 12:38 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: It is great to see the team show they can win games with Joe Burrow out. Browning has been amazing and the OL seems to be starting to gel after 13 games through 13 games.  The problem making it into the playoffs is we have a bad AFC conference record. It is the reason we are 10th right now even tied with a bunch of other teams with 7-6 record.

Of the 7-6 teams, Denver has best shot at winning out to go 11-6. Browns need 3 of 4 to go 11-6. That leaves one spot among:
1. Steelers - we play them and need a win
2. Colts
3. Texans
4. Bills

The good news is we have proven we can beat the best teams so we have a shot, but we need to go at least 3-1 and hope 2 teams and hope teams above go 2-2. There are other scenarios, but if we win out, we should make it.

Yes, take it one game at a time and we have a chance to win out. If we win out, we are in. That should be our mindset.

We could very well go 3-1 and it wouldn't matter and we would still be on the outside looking in with our AFC and division record this year.

[*michaelsean*]

(12-11-2023, 01:05 PM)Cat-Man Wrote: Realistically battling for that final spot. With the schedules that are left, the Browns and Denver have all but assuredly locked up the #5 and #6 spots. the Bengals 3-6 record vs the AFC is what is killing them in the tie-breaker scenarios.

Any team that gives up 70 should be immediately banned from the postseason.

[Destro]

Meh. The biggest factor is the rest of the AFC has decided to fall all over themselves lately.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(12-11-2023, 12:51 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: I don't look at the schedule as being brutal. 

Favored by 3 against the Vikings at home this week. Steelers are terrible. Browns aren't special and it's a home game. Chiefs game is what it is. 

Agreed, but I like the Browns game a whole lot more if it's not Flacco.

It might end up being a test of how good Jonah can be. Danielle Hunter, Twatt, Myles Garrett in those first three games.

[Bengalbug]

I think we are giving too much credit to the current 7-6 teams. Honestly most of them are just flat out not that good. Steelers, Colts, Texans…. I know we lost to two of those but we could (should) have beat the Steelers. The Texans game was weird and burrow may have been dealing with the wrist, we will never know.

I still think 10-7 could get it done, but that means the bengals still have to go 3-1. Broncos and bills are really the only teams I’m worried about ruining the bengals chances and we have the tiebreaker over buffalo.

We are acting like 7-6 (about as .500 as you get) are ALL suddenly going to run the table. Most of these teams will go 2-2, a few 3-1 and maybe one runs the table.