ESPN Simulation: Bengals lose next 3, end 8-9

[SunsetBengal]

I'll bet the ESPN simulator didn't have the Bengals winning the past 3 games, either..

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(12-22-2023, 08:19 AM)kevin Wrote: I just want to make it clear that when Paul Brown said this around 1970, he was not talking about computer games or simulated games.  He was saying lets go ahead and play the game on the field and see what really happens.  He was saying that if the media was right, there would be no reason to play any games, but since the media is wrong most of the time, let's go ahead and play the actual games on the field.

Right....and I agree. I just used your post to piggyback off of. All I heard for the last four weeks of the college football season was how winning all of your games doesn't matter....then lo and behold, they don't. Who'd a thunk it?

[XenoMorph]

(12-22-2023, 09:31 AM)reuben.ahmed Wrote: I still think you guys are talking about media heads at ESPN and not software. I don't think those media heads are smart enough to provide any input on the algorithms used for prediction. I'm not saying they are right or wrong but Vegas is using algorithms to screw most people out of money, there isn't any talking head involved.

OP's first sentence said: "2022 predicted correctly the 7 AFC playoff teams.". Could just be beginner's luck lol, but the 2022 season's last 3 weeks was probably not as cluttered as the 2023 season.

It also doesn't have enough data on Jake Browning to predict properly, probably. And it definitely has no data on Browning without Ja'marr.

Does anyone have any simulation software they do trust? Who else is simulating games other than Vegas? If Vegas didn't trust their simulations would they even exist as a gambling institution? Lol. I guess the purpose of simulation is to err on the side of 51% or higher in being correct. If we could predict, I'd be Biff Tannen.

simulations are just that a simulation of POSSIBLE outcomes...   not a fortune telling device.  and past data doesnt always dictate the future.   espn does this for a click bait article

[SunsetBengal]

(12-22-2023, 10:24 AM)XenoMorph Wrote: simulations are just that a simulation of POSSIBLE outcomes...   not a fortune telling device.  and past data doesnt always dictate the future.   espn does this for a click bait article

Yep, I asked the Magic 8 Ball what the likelihood of the Bengals losing their next 3 games was, and it said 'doubtful'. 

[XenoMorph]

(12-22-2023, 10:40 AM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Yep, I asked the Magic 8 Ball what the likelihood of the Bengals losing their next 3 games was, and it said 'doubtful'. 

ill pull out my tarot cards later for a reading lol

[RegularGuy22]

(12-21-2023, 11:27 PM)sandwedge Wrote: Steelers are 20th in total D
Vikings are 13th in total D

And JT O'Sullivan in his breakdown was saying the Vikings D is very hard to read as they show so many different looks and disguises before , during and after snap that it took the Bengals a long time to figure out what would work.

[sandwedge]

(12-22-2023, 09:48 AM)reuben.ahmed Wrote: Steelers O winning them all those games. 

All them games.....

[NUGDUKWE]

(12-22-2023, 11:32 AM)RegularGuy22 Wrote: And JT O'Sullivan in his breakdown was saying the Vikings D is very hard to read as they show so many different looks and disguises before , during and after snap that it took the Bengals a long time to figure out what would work.

From what I've seen it's really just Browning struggling to see it. Kind of surprising they seemed to go back to letting him drop back and read the play compared to giving him half field reads and scheming plays for players in this game. Chase had two hand up I'm open plays for tds in the 1st half including one on the 1st drive at the Minnesota 20yd line. Not sure if it's defenses not respecting us with Browning but guys are beating coverage alot on the tape I've seen. I guess that's probably why we are going back to that but Browning still needs to be able to see it if we are gonna take advantage. Need to step it back a little in my opinion and give him easier plays to process for atleast a majority of the time. 

[RegularGuy22]

You are correct and also he pointed out several times that a certain RB of ours was missing crucial blocks that would have given Browning more time in the pocket. I think he even said one time "not sure what the hell 28 was doing on that play."

[NUGDUKWE]

(12-22-2023, 12:00 PM)RegularGuy22 Wrote: You are correct and also he pointed out several times that a certain RB of ours was missing crucial blocks that would have given Browning more time in the pocket. I think he even said one time "not sure what the hell 28 was doing on that play."

I'm sure Mixon could've missed some blocks but he has been better in that regard but I saw both him and trayveon had good pass blocking snaps against Minnesota. I saw Chase Brown appeared to really struggle in this game not sure exactly why? Maybe just struggling knowing who he had to pick up and not getting into position.

[BoomerFan]

I could easily believe we lose out, or only winning one of the last three (maybe the Browns game). I will still watch because you don't know what will happen.

[BIGDADDYFROMCINCINNATI]

When you go to our schedule on ESPN.com it has us as 60% favorites or the Steelers, 30% KC, and 50/50 with the Browns. I remember looking at this before the Jags game and it was giving us a 20% chance and we see what happened. FYI, we were 65% fav over the Vikings. The point being, these things are fun to look at when there's nothing else to do.

[RegularGuy22]

That 60%, 30%, 50/50% seems about right but the old 'any given gameday' always applies. I never thought Buffalo was gonna blow out the Cowboys either. But the Cowboys had already clinched a spot so maybe a letdown game but still a blowout like that?

[Science Friction]

(12-22-2023, 12:29 PM)BIGDADDYFROMCINCINNATI Wrote: When you go to our schedule on ESPN.com it has us as 60% favorites or the Steelers, 30% KC, and 50/50 with the Browns.   I remember looking at this before the Jags game and it was giving us a 20% chance and we see what happened.  FYI, we were 65% fav over the Vikings.  The point being, these things are fun to look at when there's nothing else to do.

If we are 60% to beat the Steelers, 30% to beats the Chiefs, and 50% to beat the Browns, then by the Rules of probability, we are at 9% to win all three. Let's buck the odds and win the trifecta.

[KillerGoose]

(12-22-2023, 12:04 PM)NUGDUKWE Wrote: I'm sure Mixon could've missed some blocks but he has been better in that regard but I saw both him and trayveon had good pass blocking snaps against Minnesota. I saw Chase Brown appeared to really struggle in this game not sure exactly why? Maybe just struggling knowing who he had to pick up and not getting into position.

I genuinely don't think Mixon has improved. Something JTO mentioned in his video was an instance where Mixon blocked wide left and pressure came directly up the middle, which should have been Mixon's guy. I don't know about you, but I am not picking that up live in the game, especially if Mixon does block someone out on the edge. I would assume a G made a mistake. I think there are instances that we are likely missing where Mixon has a brain fart and we simply aren't picking it up. We just see him hitting someone and say "hell yeah" without realizing it could very well be the wrong guy entirely. 

I'm not a PFF grades guy, but for reference, Mixon currently has the lowest pass blocking grade of his career. Take that for what it is worth in line with JTO's comments. 

[BIGDADDYFROMCINCINNATI]

(12-22-2023, 01:20 PM)Science Friction Wrote: If we are 60% to beat the Steelers, 30% to beats the Chiefs, and 50% to beat the Browns, then by the Rules of probability, we are at 9% to win all three. Let's buck the odds and win the trifecta.

I see us going 2-1 and getting the 6th seed.

[Bronxbengal]

ESPN bwhaaaaaaaaaa

The channel has deteriorated from its glory days. The good talent left.


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[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

At Pitt will be tough. It always is. Down Burrow, Chase, Reader, and CTB makes it much more so.

Having said all that...we have won 3 in a row (Jax, Indy, Minny) vs teams that are all .500 or better and the Steelers have lost 3 in a row. I think we are slight favorites to win.

Further, I like our PO chances. I think if we win 2 of 3, we are in. We own the TB in head to head ties with Jacksonville, Buffalo, and Indy. A win tomorrow means Pitt cannot catch us unless we lose out. That would leave Denver (1 game behind) and Houston (Stroud likely out this week vs Cleveland) as the real danger teams for us if we finish 10-7.

I think Baltimore, Miami, and KC are likely in. Plus the South winner and Cleveland. The Browns seem likely to have nothing to play for in Week 18, clinched WC but no shot at division.

As long as we get to 10 and one of Houston & Denver don't, I think we are in.

[NUGDUKWE]

(12-22-2023, 01:24 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: I genuinely don't think Mixon has improved. Something JTO mentioned in his video was an instance where Mixon blocked wide left and pressure came directly up the middle, which should have been Mixon's guy. I don't know about you, but I am not picking that up live in the game, especially if Mixon does block someone out on the edge. I would assume a G made a mistake. I think there are instances that we are likely missing where Mixon has a brain fart and we simply aren't picking it up. We just see him hitting someone and say "hell yeah" without realizing it could very well be the wrong guy entirely. 

I'm not a PFF grades guy, but for reference, Mixon currently has the lowest pass blocking grade of his career. Take that for what it is worth in line with JTO's comments. 

more Pace vs Mixon in the 4th quarter pic.twitter.com/Ok9OfoPMHg

— Goodberry (@JoeGoodberry) December 18, 2023

 

More activities after Mixon picks up the blitz pic.twitter.com/mfQJT3Dr8s

— Goodberry (@JoeGoodberry) December 18, 2023

 



I mean he picked up the guy here. Could be more aggressive especially on the 2nd one. But all I've heard is about Mixon as he has improved which makes the PFF grade interesting. I'm not saying I don't believe you just seems odd and I do not always trust they're grading system. But he was certainly better than Chase Brown and probably why Brown dissappears for periods of time in games.

[NUGDUKWE]

(12-22-2023, 01:43 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: At Pitt will be tough. It always is. Down Burrow, Chase, Reader, and CTB makes it much more so.

Having said all that...we have won 3 in a row (Jax, Indy, Minny) vs teams that are all .500 or better and the Steelers have lost 3 in a row. I think we are slight favorites to win.

Further, I like our PO chances. I think if we win 2 of 3, we are in. We own the TB in head to head ties with Jacksonville, Buffalo, and Indy. A win tomorrow means Pitt cannot catch us unless we lose out. That would leave Denver (1 game behind) and Houston (Stroud likely out this week vs Cleveland) as the real danger teams for us if we finish 10-7.

I think Baltimore, Miami, and KC are likely in. Plus the South winner and Cleveland. The Browns seem likely to have nothing to play for in Week 18, clinched WC but no shot at division.

As long as we get to 10 and one of Houston & Denver don't, I think we are in.

I think you may be overlooking Buffalo a bit too much. They play the Chargers this week then New Engalnd both see like easy wins on paper but we will need an upset. They play Miami the last week and that may mean something but time will tell. I know we own the head to head with Buffalo but that only matters if we are the only two with a tied record. Not sure how the rest of the tie breakers unfold.