OT or the Field?

[CJD]

It is January 16th. The Combine has not occurred yet, nor have any of the post season bowls like the Senior Bowl, East West Shrine Bowl etc.

Based on current draft profiles, there seems to be a very deep OT class in this draft. There are 5 OTs that are considered locks for the first round in Joe Alt, Olu Fashanu, Taliese Fuaga, JC Latham and Amarius Mims.

The final 3 are all considered likely or realistic to be available at our pick, #18.

It is not a deep DT class, with only one consistently being mocked in the first round and considered unlikely to make it to #18.
It is a deep WR class, but the expectation is that we will franchise tag Higgins.

There is a general sentiment among fans and writers familiar with the Bengals that Jonah Williams is likely gone, as is Reader.

With that in mind, with no further knowledge of how the offseason was going to go, if today (and today only) someone offered you the bet of whether the Bengals would pick an OT at #18 or any other position, which side of the bet would you take?

[Whatever]

(01-16-2024, 12:15 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: It is January 16th. The Combine has not occurred yet, nor have any of the post season bowls like the Senior Bowl, East West Shrine Bowl etc.

Based on current draft profiles, there seems to be a very deep OT class in this draft. There are 5 OTs that are considered locks for the first round in Joe Alt, Olu Fashanu, Taliese Fuaga, JC Latham and Amarius Mims.

The final 3 are all considered likely or realistic to be available at our pick, #18.

It is not a deep DT class, with only one consistently being mocked in the first round and considered unlikely to make it to #18.
It is a deep WR class, but the expectation is that we will franchise tag Higgins.

There is a general sentiment among fans and writers familiar with the Bengals that Jonah Williams is likely gone, as is Reader.

With that in mind, with no further knowledge of how the offseason was going to go, if today (and today only) someone offered you the bet of whether the Bengals would pick an OT at #18 or any other position, which side of the bet would you take?

I would say any other position, just because of the odds.  

There's currently 13 DT's in the Top 100 prospects, so I disagree that there's no depth to the DT class.  

[CJD]

(01-16-2024, 12:28 PM)Whatever Wrote: I would say any other position, just because of the odds.  

There's currently 13 DT's in the Top 100 prospects, so I disagree that there's no depth to the DT class.  

I should have specified in terms of the first round. The DT class has good depth in day 2, but there aren't many options in the first round. At least, not yet. Maybe Sweat blows the combine away and becomes a consensus 1st round pick. Byron Murphy, who is oddly reminiscent of Geno Atkins (I know, I know. We do this for every 6'1" DT with pass rush skills and insane weight room numbers), could do the same.

But in terms of first round picks, I don't think we're likely to take a DT unless someone makes the leap up the boards.

[Whatever]

(01-16-2024, 12:31 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: I should have specified in terms of the first round. The DT class has good depth in day 2, but there aren't many options in the first round. At least, not yet. Maybe Sweat blows the combine away and becomes a consensus 1st round pick. Byron Murphy, who is oddly reminiscent of Geno Atkins (I know, I know. We do this for every 6'1" DT with pass rush skills and insane weight room numbers), could do the same.

But in terms of first round picks, I don't think we're likely to take a DT unless someone makes the leap up the boards.

I think it will be offense in the 1sr.  Our 1st, 2nd, and 3rd the last two drafts have all been defense.  However, I can see it being WR, OT, or Bowers(if he somehow makes it). On paper, I would prefer a T, but you never know who will be there.  

[CJD]

(01-16-2024, 12:42 PM)Whatever Wrote: I think it will be offense in the 1sr.  Our 1st, 2nd, and 3rd the last two drafts have all been defense.  However, I can see it being WR, OT, or Bowers(if he somehow makes it). On paper, I would prefer a T, but you never know who will be there.  

My preference is T, especially since the board lines up with that need perfectly. I wouldn't be opposed to WR either. The idea of Rome Odunze, Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins on the field at the same time is tantalizing.

I doubt Bowers is there, but he'd obviously be great too.

But the reason that I am tempted to go OT first is because we, as the Bengals, are absolutely HORRENDOUS at selecting offensive linemen in the draft.

2022: Cordell Volson
2021: Jackson Carman, D'Ante Smith, Trey Hill
2020: Hakeem Adeniji
2019: Jonah Williams, Michael Jordan
2018: Billy Price, Rod Taylor
2017: JJ Dielman
2016: Christian Westerman
2015: Cedric Ogbuehi, Jake Fisher
2014: Russell Bodine

Only 1 of those players has performed up to their draft selection, imo (Jonah). You could make an argument for Volson, but he has yet to turn into a good starter. He is just the only option at LG at the moment.

In that same time frame, we've drafted Tyler Boyd, Auden Tate, Tee Higgins, Ja'Marr Chase, Charlie Jones and Andrei Iosivas, all of whom have played up to their draft position or have shown the potential to.

The only major miss at WR in the last 10 years has been John Ross.

For that reason, I would much prefer to go OT - WR, rather than WR - OT. Let's get our hands on the best OT prospect we can and wait on WR until the 2nd or maybe 3rd round, as we know how to actually develop that position, whereas with OT we kind of need a finished product coming out of college haha.

[*Synric*]

It's possible 5 tackles go before 18... Probably not likely but not impossible. No one expected Darnell Wright top 10 but teams always reach for Offensive Tackles.

[Goalpost]

I would take OT vs the field in the 1st. The draft sets up nicely that way if things fall right. Then double dip at DT after the OT pick.

[SunsetBengal]

I'm fine with the Bengals selecting a player to play RT in the 1st round, so long as it is a player who's comfortable playing RT and isn't looking to be moved to LT. In other words, I would not like to see them take a guy who's heart is set on being a LT in the NFL and then asking him to play RT.

[Whatever]

(01-16-2024, 12:57 PM)Synric Wrote: It's possible 5 tackles go before 18... Probably not likely but not impossible. No one expected Darnell Wright top 10 but teams always reach for Offensive Tackles.

It's possible.  Last year was a bad OT draft, this year is a bad OT FA class, and it's a top heavy T draft.  

[CJD]

(01-16-2024, 01:10 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: I'm fine with the Bengals selecting a player to play RT in the 1st round, so long as it is a player who's comfortable playing RT and isn't looking to be moved to LT.  In other words, I would not like to see them take a guy who's heart is set on being a LT in the NFL and then asking him to play RT.

The good news is that the 3 OTs that are projected to be available at our pick all played RT in college. So that should be a boon for us if one of Latham, Mims or Fuaga are available at 18.

[Whatever]

(01-16-2024, 12:50 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: My preference is T, especially since the board lines up with that need perfectly. I wouldn't be opposed to WR either. The idea of Rome Odunze, Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins on the field at the same time is tantalizing.

I doubt Bowers is there, but he'd obviously be great too.

But the reason that I am tempted to go OT first is because we, as the Bengals, are absolutely HORRENDOUS at selecting offensive linemen in the draft.

2022: Cordell Volson
2021: Jackson Carman, D'Ante Smith, Trey Hill
2020: Hakeem Adeniji
2019: Jonah Williams, Michael Jordan
2018: Billy Price, Rod Taylor
2017: JJ Dielman
2016: Christian Westerman
2015: Cedric Ogbuehi, Jake Fisher
2014: Russell Bodine

Only 1 of those players has performed up to their draft selection, imo (Jonah). You could make an argument for Volson, but he has yet to turn into a good starter. He is just the only option at LG at the moment.

In that same time frame, we've drafted Tyler Boyd, Auden Tate, Tee Higgins, Ja'Marr Chase, Charlie Jones and Andrei Iosivas, all of whom have played up to their draft position or have shown the potential to.

The only major miss at WR in the last 10 years has been John Ross.

For that reason, I would much prefer to go OT - WR, rather than WR - OT. Let's get our hands on the best OT prospect we can and wait on WR until the 2nd or maybe 3rd round, as we know how to actually develop that position, whereas with OT we kind of need a finished product coming out of college haha.

I would disagree that Jonah lived up to his draft status.  Two good, not great, years out of five is not what I look for from a 1st round pick.  I do think you're being way too harsh on most of the Day 3 OL, though.  If you're going to say guys like Bodine, Volson, Smith, and Hill didn't live up to expectations, but Jones and Yoshi did, you have way too high expectations for OL and way too low for WR 's.  

I prefer T first because of how everything shakes out.  It's a bad FA class for T's. There's 12 OT's in the Top 100 of the draft class, but 10 are in the Top 50.  There's a good chance that if we go a different direction in the 1st, there won't be a good T prospect there in the 2nd.  I'm more confident in getting a quality WR prospect in the 2nd.  

[TecmoBengals]

(01-16-2024, 12:15 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: With that in mind, with no further knowledge of how the offseason was going to go, if today (and today only) someone offered you the bet of whether the Bengals would pick an OT at #18 or any other position, which side of the bet would you take?

During the season I was convinced we'd be drafting a Tee replacement at pick 18 and my personal hope is Bowers falls. I now agree with thinking that Tee gets tagged nor do I think Bowers is available.

I'm betting on OT at 18. If I lose the bet, I think they go CB.

[*bfine32*]

2 of my favorite OT prospects were not listed by the OP.

My personal fav is Kingsley Suamataia. The kid's not old enough to drink yet and grew up training with Penei Sewell. He'll move into the first round

My "overlooked" is Troy Fautanu. I'd be happy w/ either of them at 18.

[Bengal Dude]

I feel like I'd go with the field. I don't trust this team to draft OL. 

[puddycat]

OT: We're not in a position to draft QB or DE. It's too early for IOL, S, RB, LB. There's limited DT and TE 1st round talent.
What's left at that point is OT, WR, and CB which could all be BPA. I know the Bengals love their WRs and CBs, but I think need meets value here.
OR we could trade up to target a dropping "superstar", although he too could be an OT.

[CJD]

(01-16-2024, 02:10 PM)Whatever Wrote: I would disagree that Jonah lived up to his draft status.  Two good, not great, years out of five is not what I look for from a 1st round pick.  I do think you're being way too harsh on most of the Day 3 OL, though.  If you're going to say guys like Bodine, Volson, Smith, and Hill didn't live up to expectations, but Jones and Yoshi did, you have way too high expectations for OL and way too low for WR 's.  

I prefer T first because of how everything shakes out.  It's a bad FA class for T's. There's 12 OT's in the Top 100 of the draft class, but 10 are in the Top 50.  There's a good chance that if we go a different direction in the 1st, there won't be a good T prospect there in the 2nd.  I'm more confident in getting a quality WR prospect in the 2nd.  

Well, if I don't include Williams, then the list of OL prospects that met expectations will have been 0 in 10 years haha. At least getting a starter for multiple years is something.

As far as Jones and Yoshi, I included them only because I think they have the potential to really show up next year, but they obviously haven't fully arrived yet. Iosivas ending the season with 4 TD with limited snaps is impressive though. Jones is much more of an unknown, imo and I should not have included him.

I agree regarding the confidence that we'll find a good WR prospect in the 2nd and not trusting that we could do the same for OT in the 2nd.

[Bengalion]

If Amarius Mims is there he should be our pick imo. Jonah won't be back, so we either have to get a band-aid right tackle like Riley Reiff in free agency or draft his replacement. Free Agency we need to foccus on improving our interior pass rush, we desperately need it.

[*ochocincos*]

Given Pollack's track record with OL, I wouldn't be excited going into the season with a hole at RT and depending on a rookie starting in that spot, even if a 1st round pick.
That rookie would have to go against the AFC North edge rushers 6 times a year, which would make it hard for almost any rookie RT to succeed.

If I have the opportunity to bring in one of a few outside RTs immediately in FA for $8 mill or less APY while Jonah seeks a deal elsewhere, I'm happy to move on from Jonah. Then, I'd maybe look for an OT on Day 2 to groom given Smith and Carman are both entering their final year under contract.

I would argue too that you could save the money spent on Higgins (~$20+ mill) and put it toward both a solid RT and NT.
I'd then look to draft a pass catcher in Rd 1 (and maybe also Rd 2) and have them start immediately.
You would then have all your starting spots covered and be able to use the rest of the draft for depth upgrades.

[TecmoBengals]

(01-17-2024, 11:41 AM)ochocincos Wrote: Given Pollack's track record with OL, I wouldn't be excited going into the season with a hole at RT and depending on a rookie starting in that spot, even if a 1st round pick.
That rookie would have to go against the AFC North edge rushers 6 times a year, which would make it hard for almost any rookie RT to succeed.

If I have the opportunity to bring in one of a few outside RTs immediately in FA for $8 mill or less APY while Jonah seeks a deal elsewhere, I'm happy to move on from Jonah. Then, I'd maybe look for an OT on Day 2 to groom given Smith and Carman are both entering their final year under contract.

I would argue too that you could save the money spent on Higgins (~$20+ mill) and put it toward both a solid RT and NT.
I'd then look to draft a pass catcher in Rd 1 (and maybe also Rd 2) and have them start immediately.
You would then have all your starting spots covered and be able to use the rest of the draft for depth upgrades.

As always, you bring up good points to consider. 

I suppose what happens with Tee dictates the overall free agency and draft plans. Is he tagged or not? 

I'm ready for the playoffs and Super Bowl to conclude so we can get the Bengals offseason rolling.

[*Synric*]

(01-17-2024, 11:41 AM)ochocincos Wrote: Given Pollack's track record with OL, I wouldn't be excited going into the season with a hole at RT and depending on a rookie starting in that spot, even if a 1st round pick.
That rookie would have to go against the AFC North edge rushers 6 times a year, which would make it hard for almost any rookie RT to succeed.

If I have the opportunity to bring in one of a few outside RTs immediately in FA for $8 mill or less APY while Jonah seeks a deal elsewhere, I'm happy to move on from Jonah. Then, I'd maybe look for an OT on Day 2 to groom given Smith and Carman are both entering their final year under contract.

I would argue too that you could save the money spent on Higgins (~$20+ mill) and put it toward both a solid RT and NT.
I'd then look to draft a pass catcher in Rd 1 (and maybe also Rd 2) and have them start immediately.
You would then have all your starting spots covered and be able to use the rest of the draft for depth upgrades.

I could argue filling the OL with B-Level Free Agents hasn't really worked either.