CJD Mock Off Season 1.0

[CJD]

For the last 3 years, Paul Dehner Jr of the Athletic has done this really cool thing where he creates a spreadsheet with a bunch of drop down menus for all the positions the Bengals may need to address in the NFL draft and off season.

For each position, the drop down contains zero cost options, like using a player already on the roster or already accounted for in the draft money pool, or options that cost money such as free agents or extensions of players. The price tag of each free agent is just his best guess, but I think his numbers are usually pretty fair.

https://theathletic.com/5219251/2024/01/24/bengals-2024-mock-offseason-roster/?source=user-shared-article

With that in mind, this is what I came up with:

This worked out pretty well for me. pic.twitter.com/dK4SZVdfTg

— Joe from Cincinnati (@JoeFromCinci) January 24, 2024

I have us cutting Joe Mixon and Nick Scott, for a savings of 8.1 million.

I have us re-signing Reader (7M), ADG (1.5M) and tagging Tee Higgins (21M).

I have us extending Ja'Marr Chase (+5M), and McPherson (+1M).

And I have us signing free agents Noah Fant (6M), Jermaine Eluemunor (5M), and Sean Murphy-Bunting (3M).

That left me with $600,000 in cap space.

My draft:

Round 1, Pick 18: Taliese Fuaga, RT, Oregon State
Round 2, Pick 49: Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas
Round 3, Pick 80: Devontez Walker, WR, North Carolina
Round 4, Pick 111: Blake Corum, RB, Michigan
Round 5, Pick 142: Jordan Jefferson, NT, LSU
Round 6, Pick 178: Tanor Bortolini, OC, Wisconsin
Round 7, Pick 209: Josh Proctor, S, Ohio State

This draft provides good depth on the Dline, with Murphy serving as a pass rushing specialist to start and Jordan Jefferson serving as our backup NT to DJ Reader, who is coming off of an injury.

Taliese Fuaga can ease into the RT role with Jermaine Eluemunor taking the early season starts. Or, if Fuaga is just that dominant, he can start from day 1. He is a RT by trade, so we don't have to worry about the transition that people fear because of Jackson Carman (I think Carman just sucks, but maybe there is some perceived issues with transitioning from college LT to NFL RT).

Devontez Walker is a speedy, tall WR who could either red shirt behind Higgins or play mostly in the slot (think Chris Henry style slot) before taking over for Higgins next off season.

Blake Corum is a compact power runner who should complement Brown's speed nicely.

Rounds 6 and 7 were just BPA selections, but we could use some depth on the interior of the Oline and at safety, so I thought these two couldn't hurt either. I considered drafting a punter but, honestly, we can get one as a UDFA. There's no reason to spend any more draft capital there.

[*bengalfan74*]

That's damn near a perfect draft for me.

[Whatever]

I like the draft enough, but if we come out of UFA with nothing but Fant and a couple backups, that's going to be a major downer.

Also, I'm far from a Mixon stan, but cutting him, not getting a replacement in FA, then waiting til Day 3 to draft a replacement doesn't seem realistic.

[*Synric*]

I haven't watched Tanor Bortolini but he's on my pre-senior bowl watchlist. I'm the first person that will say "Don't scout the helmet" but when a Wisconsin OL is on the boards 1st round or UDFA projected it peeks my interest.

Edit: His bio in 2022 he had 6 starts at LG, 2 at RG, 1 at Center, and 1 at TE lol.

[CJD]

(01-24-2024, 12:23 PM)Whatever Wrote: I like the draft enough, but if we come out of UFA with nothing but Fant and a couple backups, that's going to be a major downer.

Also, I'm far from a Mixon stan, but cutting him, not getting a replacement in FA, then waiting til Day 3 to draft a replacement doesn't seem realistic.

Unfortunately, the Mock Off Season format that Paul Dehner Jr uses basically necessitates that you don't really discuss your depth beyond the starters. I think they could sign a bargain free agent RB like Clyde Edwards Helaire (PDJ estimates his contract would be a $2M cap hit) or AJ Dillon ($3M cap hit) and make it work with the cap. Especially since the cap hasn't actually been announced yet.

My main driving point for RB is that we don't invest 8.85M or significant draft capital in the position, if possible, so that necessitated cutting Mixon and not replacing him with a key free agent or a premium draft pick.

As for TE, this draft isn't nearly as deep as last year's, so if we weren't interested in last year's class, the odds of us being interested in this year's class is pretty low. I like the idea of signing Fant, Sample and Hudson as our main 3 going into 2024. I think Fant is a decent upgrade with potential to become a legitimate safety net/target for Burrow.

[TecmoBengals]

I appreciated the detail for this mock. It was a fun read.

[CJD]

(01-24-2024, 12:52 PM)Synric Wrote: I haven't watched Tanor Bortolini but he's on my pre-senior bowl watchlist. I'm the first person that will say "Don't scout the helmet" but when  a Wisconsin OL is on the boards 1st round or UDFA projected it peeks my interest.

Edit: His bio in 2022 he had 6 starts at LG, 2 at RG, 1 at Center, and 1 at TE lol.

Admittedly, I have the same bias with Wisconsin offensive linemen haha. He was also BPA by the mock draft simulator's rankings that I was using, but that Wisconsin next to his name just pushed it that much further.

[Clark W Griswold]

I would be happy with this draft. Don’t know much about some of these guys but this mock hits a lot of needs and I love the top 2 picks.

[CJD]

(01-24-2024, 07:47 PM)Clark W Griswold Wrote: I would be happy with this draft.  Don’t know much about some of these guys but this mock hits a lot of needs and I love the top 2 picks.

Yea, if you believe the national mock drafts (like Mel Kiper and Dane Brugler), Byron Murphy seems like he'll be on the rise, but for this time, he's still there in the 2nd round, so I will happily pounce on him there haha.

[Essex Johnson]

(01-24-2024, 11:59 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: For the last 3 years, Paul Dehner Jr of the Athletic has done this really cool thing where he creates a spreadsheet with a bunch of drop down menus for all the positions the Bengals may need to address in the NFL draft and off season.

For each position, the drop down contains zero cost options, like using a player already on the roster or already accounted for in the draft money pool, or options that cost money such as free agents or extensions of players. The price tag of each free agent is just his best guess, but I think his numbers are usually pretty fair.

https://theathletic.com/5219251/2024/01/24/bengals-2024-mock-offseason-roster/?source=user-shared-article

With that in mind, this is what I came up with:

This worked out pretty well for me. pic.twitter.com/dK4SZVdfTg

— Joe from Cincinnati (@JoeFromCinci) January 24, 2024

I have us cutting Joe Mixon and Nick Scott, for a savings of 8.1 million.

I have us re-signing Reader (7M), ADG (1.5M) and tagging Tee Higgins (21M).

I have us extending Ja'Marr Chase (+5M), and McPherson (+1M).

And I have us signing free agents Noah Fant (6M), Jermaine Eluemunor (5M), and Sean Murphy-Bunting (3M).

That left me with $600,000 in cap space.

My draft:

Round 1, Pick 18: Taliese Fuaga, RT, Oregon State
Round 2, Pick 49: Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas
Round 3, Pick 80: Devontez Walker, WR, North Carolina
Round 4, Pick 111: Blake Corum, RB, Michigan
Round 5, Pick 142: Jordan Jefferson, NT, LSU
Round 6, Pick 178: Tanor Bortolini, OC, Wisconsin
Round 7, Pick 209: Josh Proctor, S, Ohio State

This draft provides good depth on the Dline, with Murphy serving as a pass rushing specialist to start and Jordan Jefferson serving as our backup NT to DJ Reader, who is coming off of an injury.

Taliese Fuaga can ease into the RT role with Jermaine Eluemunor taking the early season starts. Or, if Fuaga is just that dominant, he can start from day 1. He is a RT by trade, so we don't have to worry about the transition that people fear because of Jackson Carman (I think Carman just sucks, but maybe there is some perceived issues with transitioning from college LT to NFL RT).

Devontez Walker is a speedy, tall WR who could either red shirt behind Higgins or play mostly in the slot (think Chris Henry style slot) before taking over for Higgins next off season.

Blake Corum is a compact power runner who should complement Brown's speed nicely.

Rounds 6 and 7 were just BPA selections, but we could use some depth on the interior of the Oline and at safety, so I thought these two couldn't hurt either. I considered drafting a punter but, honestly, we can get one as a UDFA. There's no reason to spend any more draft capital there.

No way Corum is there in 4, will go 2/3 round

[CJD]

(01-25-2024, 07:42 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: No way Corum is there in 4, will go 2/3 round

Perhaps.

He's an older player who will be 24 years old before the end of his rookie season, has a fair amount of wear on his tires, and RB is at an all time low in terms of positional value.

This was not me projecting where he would go, it's what a simulation told me could happen. I just selected who was available using the mock draft simulator. 

I will say that I was surprised he was there, because I think he could go in the third round. But players rise and fall on draft day all the time.

Chase Brown was consistently mocked in the late 3rd and 4th round for most of the off season, and we got him in the late 5th. 
This mock draft had him going at pick 103, we got him at pick 163.
That same mock had Andrei Iosivas in the 4th round, we got him in the 6th.

So while it wouldn't surprise me if Corum isn't there in the 4th round, I don't find it to be mind-bendingly unrealistic.

[Essex Johnson]

(01-25-2024, 07:59 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Perhaps.

He's an older player who will be 24 years old before the end of his rookie season, has a fair amount of wear on his tires, and RB is at an all time low in terms of positional value.

This was not me projecting where he would go, it's what a simulation told me could happen. I just selected who was available using the mock draft simulator. 

I will say that I was surprised he was there, because I think he could go in the third round. But players rise and fall on draft day all the time.

Chase Brown was consistently mocked in the late 3rd and 4th round for most of the off season, and we got him in the late 5th. 
This mock draft had him going at pick 103, we got him at pick 163.
That same mock had Andrei Iosivas in the 4th round, we got him in the 6th.

So while it wouldn't surprise me if Corum isn't there in the 4th round, I don't find it to be mind-bendingly unrealistic.

You are correct no way is an absolute, if i put % on it I would say 20% chance be around by our pick in 4th.. He is a very talked about RB, some have mocked him in 1st, ive not seen any mock in 4th.. gut is he will go late 2nd/early 3rd.