Elly DLC @ SS

[*bengalfan74*]

https://www.mlb.com/reds/news/elly-de-la-cruz-entering-reds-spring-training-as-shortstop

Well, it seems part of the infield mystery is solved ? DLC is gonna be our SS, at least early on. And it seems McClain to 2nd. I read an article a few days ago saying India will probably be tried in the outfield a bit. And the word is Steer is going to LF. With Friedl in CF where does that leave Benson and Fraley any room in OF ?

I guess Marte, CES, and Candelario will be the 1st and 3rd rotation? And we've still got a couple guys in the minors that our knocking on the big league door.

I guess it will all figure itself out ?

[SunsetBengal]

Found this article predicting the pitching rotation.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/mlb-insider-projects-cincinnati-reds-rotation-heading-into-2024/ar-BB1idLAr?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=53c90a3cf99e4149972e110e07a6127c&ei=53

Quote:The Cincinnati Reds will be one of the trendiest picks in baseball in 2024. Armed with some of the best young position player talent in the sport, the Reds won 82 games last season and appear primed for another big jump this year.

Furthermore, the Milwaukee Brewers seem to have taken a step back in the National League Central so the division could be up for grabs.

However, if the Reds are going to take that step, they'll need to get performance from their starting rotation - one that was decimated by injury last year.

As we head into 2024, here's how Mark Sheldon of MLB.com sees the Reds rotation shaping up:

Graham Ashcraft, Frankie Montas, Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo

All of these pitchers, except Abbott, missed significant time with injuries last season. Betting he will return to previous form after two years of shoulder issues, the Reds signed Montas to a one-year, $16 million deal. Lodolo was limited to seven starts by a leg injury in '23. If someone isn't healthy, there is no shortage of alternatives to step up, including Brandon Williamson, Nick Martinez and Connor Phillips.
Phillips and Williamson were both prospects that were acquired from the Seattle Mariners while Martinez signed as a free agent this offseason.

Abbott was one of the top prospects in baseball in 2023 and debuted last season, going 8-6 with a 3.87 ERA over 21 starts.

Lodolo was previously a top prospect and remains tantalizingly talented despite his injury history. The 26-year-old only made seven starts last season and is 6-8 in his career with a 4.31 ERA

[*bengalfan74*]

(02-14-2024, 01:07 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Found this article predicting the pitching rotation.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/mlb-insider-projects-cincinnati-reds-rotation-heading-into-2024/ar-BB1idLAr?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=53c90a3cf99e4149972e110e07a6127c&ei=53

As it nearly always does, I believe our season success will hinge on our pitching. Can the starting pitching stay somewhat healthy and pitch enough quality innings that our bullpen isn't burnt out by August 1st ?

Can Lodolo return to being the same pitcher he was at the end of 22 and beginning of 23 ? Will Greene ever develop that 3rd pitch and become our ACE?? Can Montas get back to 2021 form ? 

I think our offense while young and sure to have ups and downs will be enough to keep us in the hunt. Pitching ???

[guyofthetiger]

I figure the Reds will make some changes after they test the current lineup. India should play second IMO.

[CJD]

(02-14-2024, 12:18 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: https://www.mlb.com/reds/news/elly-de-la-cruz-entering-reds-spring-training-as-shortstop

Well, it seems part of the infield mystery is solved ? DLC is gonna be our SS, at least early on. And it seems McClain to 2nd. I read an article a few days ago saying India will probably be tried in the outfield a bit. And the word is Steer is going to LF. With Friedl in CF where does that leave Benson and Fraley any room in OF ?

I guess Marte, CES, and Candelario will be the 1st and 3rd rotation? And we've still got a couple guys in the minors that our knocking on the big league door.

I guess it will all figure itself out ?

Benson and Fraley are left handed hitters with horrendous splits against left handed pitching, so they'll be strictly platoon players. RF could be Fraley/India and LF could be Steer/Benson and that would leave the infield and DH to be composed of Candelario, CES, McClain, Elly and Marte.

[Goalpost]

I don't know if it has been mentioned in other threads, but Marte injured himself in winter ball. He is still not healed supposedly....hamstring. Hopefully that doesnt linger.

[*bengalfan74*]

(02-15-2024, 01:07 PM)Goalpost Wrote: I don't know if it has been mentioned in other threads, but Marte injured himself in winter ball.  He is still not healed supposedly....hamstring. Hopefully that doesnt linger.

Yes I read that a week or so ago myself. I hope it's nothing serious and he can return soon. He was starting to really shine towards the end last year!!

[Goalpost]

A few early tidbits I found on DraftKings for DLC for 2024

Over/Unders....

SB...39 1/2
HR..21 1/2
RBI...67 1/2
Hits..127 1/2

[*bengalfan74*]

(02-18-2024, 11:46 AM)Goalpost Wrote: A few early tidbits I found on DraftKings for DLC for 2024

Over/Unders....

SB...39 1/2
HR..21 1/2
RBI...67 1/2
Hits..127 1/2

I think they should take a hard look at him batting left only. His average batting right handed is .184 if that's all the better you can do, don't switch hit. I believe his numbers would improve batting left only.

[guyofthetiger]

(02-18-2024, 11:46 AM)Goalpost Wrote: A few early tidbits I found on DraftKings for DLC for 2024

Over/Unders....

SB...39 1/2
HR..21 1/2
RBI...67 1/2
Hits..127 1/2

I'm tempted to take the under on all these as he struggled the end of the season to adjust.

[dxdtdemon]

McLain is a better fielder, so should be the everyday SS. Elly needs some time in Louisville to learn better plate discipline. He strikes out as much as Drew Stubbs did, and both of them were able to hit the ball far and steal bases to try to make fans overlook all of their deficiencies.

[*bengalfan74*]

(02-20-2024, 01:26 PM)dxdtdemon Wrote: McLain is a better fielder, so should be the everyday SS. Elly needs some time in Louisville to learn better plate discipline. He strikes out as much as Drew Stubbs did, and both of them were able to hit the ball far and steal bases to try to make fans overlook all of their deficiencies.

Yup

I was kinda hoping they'd put Elly in RF, he's got the arm for it. And put him down like 5th or 6th and batting order and maybe take some pressure off him. Almost all power hitters strike out a lot, but not that much! He's got to quit swinging at stuff that bounces or is a foot outside off the plate. If opposing pitchers don't have to throw strikes to get him out, they're not going to.

And I hate to keep  but if he can't hit right handed, stop letting him switch hit. 

[grampahol]

On paper this organization is stacked from top to bottom and fairly deep in the minor leagues as well.. If it all pans out as we all hope Krall ought to be league GM of the year and we might even forgive the team owner whose name shall not be written for flapping his gums about What are you gonna do?...   

[TecmoBengals]

(02-20-2024, 01:45 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Yup

I was kinda hoping they'd put Elly in RF, he's got the arm for it. And put him down like 5th or 6th and batting order and maybe take some pressure off him. Almost all power hitters strike out a lot, but not that much! He's got to quit swinging at stuff that bounces or is a foot outside off the plate. If opposing pitchers don't have to throw strikes to get him out, they're not going to.

And I hate to keep  but if he can't hit right handed, stop letting him switch hit. 

I also don't get this move. I didn't read much beyond the headline. Did they explain why?

Elly seems like a corner outfielder for his skill set; RF and his arm, as you said, match perfectly. Is this more of an attempt to hype the guy from a marketing angle? Elly, the next great Reds SS to follow the likes of Concepcion and Larkin. He's a marketable player and SS is the 'it factor' position.

[*bengalfan74*]

(02-21-2024, 01:18 PM)TecmoBengals Wrote: I also don't get this move. I didn't read much beyond the headline. Did they explain why?

Elly seems like a corner outfielder for his skill set; RF and his arm, as you said, match perfectly. Is this more of an attempt to hype the guy from a marketing angle? Elly, the next great Reds SS to follow the likes of Concepcion and Larkin. He's a marketable player and SS is the 'it factor' position.

Yes perhaps that's it? Next star SS? I dunno

But as been stated by myself and others in various threads. McClain is just a better SS when you consider everything. Why not try Elly in RF and see how he fares? With Friedl in CF and Elly in right there is some damn good speed out there running down fly balls. Cutting off line drives and getting the ball back in the infield quick.

Yes with Steer in LF it would cut down on opportunity for Benson, Fraley, and even India in OF but you gotta give these hot youngins some time to learn and improve.

[CJD]

(02-20-2024, 01:26 PM)dxdtdemon Wrote: McLain is a better fielder, so should be the everyday SS. Elly needs some time in Louisville to learn better plate discipline. He strikes out as much as Drew Stubbs did, and both of them were able to hit the ball far and steal bases to try to make fans overlook all of their deficiencies.

(02-21-2024, 01:18 PM)TecmoBengals Wrote: I also don't get this move. I didn't read much beyond the headline. Did they explain why?

Elly seems like a corner outfielder for his skill set; RF and his arm, as you said, match perfectly. Is this more of an attempt to hype the guy from a marketing angle? Elly, the next great Reds SS to follow the likes of Concepcion and Larkin. He's a marketable player and SS is the 'it factor' position.

(02-21-2024, 02:40 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Yes perhaps that's it? Next star SS? I dunno

But as been stated by myself and others in various threads. McClain is just a better SS when you consider everything. Why not try Elly in RF and see how he fares? With Friedl in CF and Elly in right there is some damn good speed out there running down fly balls. Cutting off line drives and getting the ball back in the infield quick.

Yes with Steer in LF it would cut down on opportunity for Benson, Fraley, and even India in OF but you gotta give these hot youngins some time to learn and improve.

I think Elly's gone all the way from overrated by Reds fans to underrated by Reds fans in less than 1 full season.

He has plenty of room to improve as a fielder, especially at shortstop, but this narrative that he doesn't belong at shortstop and McLain should take his place, moving him to RF is...dubious in its merits based on the evidence we have available to us.

According to statcast, Elly played Shortstop for 591 innings during his rookie year. In those 591 innings, he had a 76% success rate in the 262 attempts he had fielding the ball. Overall, he accounted for 1 out above average (similar to WAR for fielding. How many more outs he created than the average defender would have).
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/elly-de-la-cruz-682829?stats=statcast-r-fielding-mlb

McLain played shortstop for 465 innings during his rookie year. In those 465 innings, he also had a 76% success rate in the 174 attempts he had fielding the ball. Overall, he accounted for 2 outs above average at SS.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/matt-mclain-680574?stats=statcast-r-fielding-mlb

There really isn't that much of a difference between them in terms of the results of their playing the position. At least not in their rookie years. 

I think what people aren't giving Elly credit for is that, if you look at each player's chart of attempts in the field, they color code the attempts based on how many OAA the player achieved in any given attempt . Red is good, blue is bad and white is neutral. Elly's chart has more dark boxes, both red and blue, than McLain's, meaning Elly was making some phenomenal plays and some really bad plays, whereas McLain was making mostly "expected" plays with no phenomenal or horrendous plays.
Elly
McLain


But where Elly created his most negative run value, on plays in the gap between the SS and 3B, he and McLain had identical -2 OAAs.

The big difference between Elly and McLain is that, if Elly cuts down on the negative plays, he will be a vastly superior shortstop to McLain, whereas McLain probably will never be more than a roughly average shortstop.

Elly's average throw velocity from the SS position was 95.1 mph. McLain's was 86.4.

If he can harness that arm strength, cut down on errors and increase his range to his right side (which is, statistically, the most difficult gap to cover in all of baseball), he could be a gold glover, easily. That may sound like a silly thing to say, but he was only 21 last season, compared to 24 for McLain. I think it's reasonable to believe one can become a better fielder if they reach the majors this young.

The one thing I will say in defense of keeping McLain at SS is that Elly is, statistically, a vastly superior 3B than SS at the moment. He had an OAA of 3 at 3B and produced higher run values than McLain, likely mostly at 3B. He also only had 1 of his 14 errors at 3B, compared to 13 at SS. 

But they needed to make room for Marte, who is a bat first player. He plays 3B now, but he started as a shortstop before bulking out of the position. If he continues to bulk as he gets older (he's only 22), he may not even be suitable for 3B, much like CES bulked out of 3B. Rumors are that's why Seattle was willing to trade him. They were worried he would eventually need to move to 1B or LF. The bat is definitely worth it, but he was no longer considered "untouchable" once his position began to flux down.

Basically, what I'm saying is that if we move anyone to the outfield, it should probably be Marte haha.

[*bengalfan74*]

(02-21-2024, 04:30 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: I think Elly's gone all the way from overrated by Reds fans to underrated by Reds fans in less than 1 full season.

He has plenty of room to improve as a fielder, especially at shortstop, but this narrative that he doesn't belong at shortstop and McLain should take his place, moving him to RF is...dubious in its merits based on the evidence we have available to us.

According to statcast, Elly played Shortstop for 591 innings during his rookie year. In those 591 innings, he had a 76% success rate in the 262 attempts he had fielding the ball. Overall, he accounted for 1 out above average (similar to WAR for fielding. How many more outs he created than the average defender would have).
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/elly-de-la-cruz-682829?stats=statcast-r-fielding-mlb

McLain played shortstop for 465 innings during his rookie year. In those 465 innings, he also had a 76% success rate in the 174 attempts he had fielding the ball. Overall, he accounted for 2 outs above average at SS.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/matt-mclain-680574?stats=statcast-r-fielding-mlb

There really isn't that much of a difference between them in terms of the results of their playing the position. At least not in their rookie years. 

I think what people aren't giving Elly credit for is that, if you look at each player's chart of attempts in the field, they color code the attempts based on how many OAA the player achieved in any given attempt . Red is good, blue is bad and white is neutral. Elly's chart has more dark boxes, both red and blue, than McLain's, meaning Elly was making some phenomenal plays and some really bad plays, whereas McLain was making mostly "expected" plays with no phenomenal or horrendous plays.
Elly
McLain


But where Elly created his most negative run value, on plays in the gap between the SS and 3B, he and McLain had identical -2 OAAs.

The big difference between Elly and McLain is that, if Elly cuts down on the negative plays, he will be a vastly superior shortstop to McLain, whereas McLain probably will never be more than a roughly average shortstop.

Elly's average throw velocity from the SS position was 95.1 mph. McLain's was 86.4.

If he can harness that arm strength, cut down on errors and increase his range to his right side (which is, statistically, the most difficult gap to cover in all of baseball), he could be a gold glover, easily. That may sound like a silly thing to say, but he was only 21 last season, compared to 24 for McLain. I think it's reasonable to believe one can become a better fielder if they reach the majors this young.

The one thing I will say in defense of keeping McLain at SS is that Elly is, statistically, a vastly superior 3B than SS at the moment. He had an OAA of 3 at 3B and produced higher run values than McLain, likely mostly at 3B. He also only had 1 of his 14 errors at 3B, compared to 13 at SS. 

But they needed to make room for Marte, who is a bat first player. He plays 3B now, but he started as a shortstop before bulking out of the position. If he continues to bulk as he gets older (he's only 22), he may not even be suitable for 3B, much like CES bulked out of 3B. Rumors are that's why Seattle was willing to trade him. They were worried he would eventually need to move to 1B or LF. The bat is definitely worth it, but he was no longer considered "untouchable" once his position began to flux down.

Basically, what I'm saying is that if we move anyone to the outfield, it should probably be Marte haha.

Oh I by no means think Elly is hot trash at any position, quite contrary. I think Elly has all the makings of being one of the best Reds players in decades. And may even push all time??

But I also believe in order to get his head right, get his game right, get his offense right. He needs stability. He needs a position he plays and stays there. He needs a spot in the batting order and stay there. So why not RF to let CES, Marte, and so on get some playing time ??

I feel and I could be wrong? SS batting clean up today, 3B batting leadoff tomorrow, RF batting 3rd the next day does him no favors. And Bell loves to do that.

[dxdtdemon]

I'm only okay with Elly being on the Opening Day roster because it looks like both India and McLain will be starting the year on the IL.

[Forever Spinning Vinyl]

Saw this and thought about De La Cruz and his problem with strikeouts. I said it before, hire Rod Carew to come to spring training to just talk to EDLC about hitting in general and especially about hitting with two strikes.

[*bengalfan74*]

(02-28-2024, 06:44 AM)Forever Spinning Vinyl Wrote: Saw this and thought about De La Cruz and his problem with strikeouts. I said it before, hire Rod Carew to come to spring training to just talk to EDLC about hitting in general and especially about hitting with two strikes.

I'd love for someone to coach him up. Look at a lot of those "old school" players - 600 + plate appearances, 50ish strike outs, batting average way, WAY, higher than the kids today.