MDD Snow Day Simulation

[OSUfan]

With the driveway cleared following last evenings snowfall I thought I would take a shot at another simulation today. This was done with some assumptions such as:

Re-signed players:

Tanner Hudson, Cody Ford, Trenton Irwin, Cal Adomitis, Drew Sample, Joe Bachie, Akeem Davis-Gaither

High Probability:

DJ Reader - At least a 1 year deal
Tee Higgins - franchise tag

I believe that these along with the loss of Tyler Boyd in free agency are all relatively safe predictions heading into the '23 draft.

I was eyeing Brian Thomas Jr. or JC Latham at #18 but both of them were off of the board. I think the upside of Mims or Guyton at RT are both really high but I think there is much development needed with both players and I struggled with this as a value at #18. Philadelphia offered what I considered a good value trade of selections 1-22 and 3-97 for the #18th selection so at this point I felt comfortable taking the pick and seeing how the draft fell. I believe this trade ended up working all extremely well for the Bengals.

   

[OSUfan]

The Draft:
   

   

[OSUfan]

RD. 1 - 22nd Selection:


Jer'Zhan Newton - DT - Illinois - 6'2" 295


To have Newton still sitting there with the 22nd selection for the Bengals is an absolute steal. What is pretty clear about Newton is that he is a disruptive force to the backfield of opposing offenses. I have watched a lot of film on Newton and I feel like his lack of length is a definite disadvantage for him and one that causes him to miss some tackles but what he brings at an elite level is the ability to get into offensive backfields and disrupt their plan.


Newton has an elite motor and plays with outstanding natural level which comes with his stature and he uses that to his advantage. Newton as very good natural power and has extremely violent hands. He consistently draws double teams and will need to become more consistent at defeating those double teams at the NFL level but drawing those double teams is a real benefit to the Bengals defense as it should allow other defenders to stay clean.


This is an extremely high value get for the Bengals with the 22nd selection and one that should immediately raise the ability of the Bengals defensive line to make plays behind the line of scrimmage

[OSUfan]

RD. 2 - 49th Selection:

Xavier Legette - WR - S. Carolina - 6'3" 227


What a physical specimen at WR. If the Bengals return Higgins with the franchise tag then this adds just one more extremely dangerous weapon to the arsenal or the Bengals. If Higgins doe not return under the tag or a new deal then Legette provides the Bengals with a serious mismatch vertical threat to pair with Chase. Legette has concerns such as a single season of high production and limited route tree but what is not a concern is his elite size, speed, and length. 

Refining route tree and technique are things that can be coached up but what will have to be respected every time Legette steps on the field early is his ability to test the defense deep and his immense catch radius. His sheer size and strength create immediate mismatch issues for defenses. Again, this is another extremely high value get for the Bengals and one that has a very high ceiling.

[OSUfan]

RD. 3 - 80th Selection:


Jonathon Brooks - RB - Texas - 6'0" 207

I do not believe that the talk of the Bengals moving on from Joe Mixon is all smoke and mirrors and this is a selection that all but solidifies the end of the Mixon era in Cincy. I have been a Mixon supporter but the Bengals running game must transition to the next level and to do that it needs more dynamic athletes at the RB position. The transition began in '22 with the selection of Chase Brown.

The abilities that Brooks brings fit the Bengals offense like a glove. He has elite vision and acceleration which make him immensely dangerous with the ball in his hands. Brooks brings ability with his vision to immediately process a slight opening and the burst of acceleration to exploit that hole. When he hits the second level Brooks has the speed to take any run to the house. His abilities as a receiver were displayed often for the Texas offense and he showed to be a very natural receiver.

What is a concern for any rookie back is what they offer an offense when it comes to pass protection and their ability to pick up the blitz. Like Chase Brown he brings strong technique and abilities in these areas. Brooks and Brown should make for an extremely explosive tandem that can help to move the Bengals running game to the next level which should only make their passing attack even that much more dangerous.


RD. 3 - 97th Selection:


Blake Fisher - OT - Notre Dame - 6'6" 312

The absolutely stacked OT class of '23 allows the Bengals to land Fisher who should be the day 1 starter at RT in the 3rd round. This is a very good year to need high quality offensive tackles and the Bengals really benefit from it at this point in the draft. 

Fisher will need to continue to refine what is already pretty good technique and to continue to increase his strength but what the Bengals add with Fisher is a very experienced RT, he has taken almost all of his college snaps at RT, who has been very well coached to go with high end natural talent. Fisher has outstanding length and displayed his high football IQ against very good defensive fronts such as that of Ohio State and Clemson.

The Bengals needed to add real strength and athleticism to the O line and they do that at RT with this selection.

[OSUfan]

RD. 4 - 116th Selection:


Cam Hart - CB - Notre Dame - 6'2" 200

It is likely that Chido leaves the Bengals in FA and it seemed to some that he was not the same player as he was post injury and I might have to agree with that. The Bengals have some young high upside talent in Taylor-Britt and Turner as well as outstanding veteran Hilton. Ivey was on the rise in '23 as a 7th round draft selection but availability after a significant injury could be question mark.

Hart brings the size and length that the Bengals currently do not have at the CB position to go along with experience, high level coverage ability, and good deep speed. Hart has played a lot of football for a high profile team in a lot of high profile games and has shown himself very well while doing so. Hart needs to continue to learn to trust his instincts when he is playing with his back to the QB and to have more confidence in his abilities in these situations. Much of this should be correctable with NFL coaching.

This is what I believe is another high value get for the Bengals and I feel Hart is one of the more underrated corners in this draft.

RD. 5 - 148th Selection:


Theo Johnson - TE - Penn State - 6'6" 258

Johnson brings a really nice blend of receiving and blocking ability to the TE room for the Bengals and could be that TE1 that they have been looking for. Johnson is experienced blocking in many different scheme alignments such as from the H-back position as well as inline and does so at a high level. Johnson is natural hands catcher and has shown himself to be very productive once the ball is in his hands. 

A weakness of Theo is that he is faster than he is quick. He has the top end speed to threaten a defense deep but he builds up to this speed rather than having elite acceleration. With his size, speed, and length Theo should be able to contribute immediately to the Bengals TE room and his ability to block should allow him to see early playing time.

RD. 5 - 175th Selection:


Isaiah Adams - OL - Illinois - 6'5" 320

The Bengals return to the Illini for another trench selection but this time on the offensive side of the ball. Adams has experience at both tackle and guard for Illinois but most, myself included, believe his best tape has come at guard. 

Adams seems to play the LG position very naturally and brings a really good combination of athleticism and power to the position. What I really like about Adams is the demeanor he brings to the run game. Adams plays with the finisher mentality which the Bengals offensive line has not displayed as of late. He looks to impose his will on the defender and his athleticism allows him to effectively get to the second level and engage targets on the move. 

Adams could probably develop as a tackle but I firmly believe that he has the ability to be a really high end guard at the NFL level and I would not at all be shocked to see him starting day 1 at LG and be an immediate upgrade to Volson.

[OSUfan]

RD. 6 - 196th Selection:


Luke McCaffrey - WR - Rice - 6'2" 195

Luke brings the same elite level football IQ to the field that his brother and father brought to the field to couple with the same motor and drive that they both displayed.

Luke brings great hands, strength, and technique to the position as well as the ability to make the tough catches over the middle in traffic. McCaffrey is not a burner but he brings respectable speed and the combination of him and Charlie Jones should go along way in easing the pain of losing Boyd in the slot for this offense. Overall, Luke is a very refined receiver and his previous experience as a QB shows in his ability to process as a receiver and he should be a welcome addition to the WR room for the Bengals.

RD. 7 - 235th Selection:


Michael Barrett - LB - Michigan - 6'0" 235

What Barrett does extremely well is play in coverage and he does it with natural coverage ability and good speed. Barrett has outstanding sideline to sideline speed and displays excellent range in man and zone defense. What he needs to continue to improve upon is his ability to play downhill against the run. If Barrett can continue to improve his traditional linebacker ability of playing against the run then he certainly could be a 3 down linebacker at the NFL level. What he should bring to the Bengals at this point in the draft is special teams contribution as well as a defender that can help them in coverage against running backs and TEs on passing downs.

RD. 7 - 252nd Selection:


Fabien Lovett - DT - Fla. State - 6'3" 307

Lovett checks virtually all of the boxes when it comes to a high end playmaker at NT. He has natural power, length, technique, and motor. What he has not displayed is allowing those natural abilities to transfer over to consistent production. His strength at this point is as a run stopper where his natural power and athleticism seem to show up the most. Lovett will need to prove that he is coachable and able to continue to develop his ability to diagnose what is happening in an offense and react to it. Lovett has had some injuries but if the combine medicals check out he is definitely worth a late selection to see if he can match up abilities to production.

[OSUfan]

I have to say that this is my favorite overall simulation that I have done for the '23 draft.

[*Synric*]

(02-17-2024, 03:32 PM)OSUfan Wrote: I have to say that this is my favorite overall simulation that I have done for the '23 draft.

Squeezing in extra top 100 picks is always nice and at 18 the Bengals are in trade forward or trace back territory.

Some Notes:

Johnathan Brooks tore his ACL in early November and it usually takes the full year recovery so 2024 could be a redshirt year for Brooks. 

Xavier Legette is 6'1 223 lbs and Fabien Lovett is 6'3 307. 

[OSUfan]

(02-17-2024, 03:52 PM)Synric Wrote: Squeezing in extra top 100 picks is always nice and at 18 the Bengals are in trade forward or trace back territory.

Some Notes:

Johnathan Brooks tore his ACL in early November and it usually takes the full year recovery so 2024 could be a redshirt year for Brooks. 

Xavier Legette is 6'1 223 lbs and Fabien Lovett is 6'3 307. 

I do not believe that your measurements on Legette are accurate. It appears you took them off of NFL Draft Buzz and they are the only site reporting him at 6'1" . I will agree on Lovett as this is apparently what he measured at the senior bowl.


12 months is usually on the long end of ACL recovery and it is becoming more and more common for athletes to return in the 9 month range from ACL reconstruction surgery.

[pulses]

(02-17-2024, 03:52 PM)Synric Wrote: Squeezing in extra top 100 picks is always nice and at 18 the Bengals are in trade forward or trace back territory.

Some Notes:

Johnathan Brooks tore his ACL in early November and it usually takes the full year recovery so 2024 could be a redshirt year for Brooks. 

Xavier Legette is 6'1 223 lbs and Fabien Lovett is 6'3 307. 

ESPN has Legette at 6'3 227 along with most of the other sites except the above mentioned.

[*Synric*]

(02-17-2024, 11:46 PM)OSUfan Wrote: I do not believe that your measurements on Legette are accurate. It appears you took them off of NFL Draft Buzz and they are the only site reporting him at 6'1" . I will agree on Lovett as this is apparently what he measured at the senior bowl.


12 months is usually on the long end of ACL recovery and it is becoming more and more common for athletes to return in the 9 month range from ACL reconstruction surgery.

(02-18-2024, 01:21 AM)pulses Wrote: ESPN has Legette at 6'3 227 along with most of the other sites except the above mentioned.

12 months for a full recovery and 100%. Knees are tricky with running backs Rodney Anderson is a prime example of rushing a RB back from an ACL tear. 

As for the second part Fabien Lovett was at the Shrine Bowl and Xavier Legette was at the Senior Bowl where he measured in at 6'1 flat 223.

More All-Star Game Info can be found here:
http://thebengalsboard.com/Thread-Scouting-the-All-Star-games-2024

pic.twitter.com/T8oNVO4osX

— Reese's Senior Bowl (@seniorbowl) January 29, 2024

[pulses]

(02-18-2024, 03:48 AM)Synric Wrote: 12 months for a full recovery and 100%. Knees are tricky with running backs Rodney Anderson is a prime example of rushing a RB back from an ACL tear. 

As for the second part Fabien Lovett was at the Shrine Bowl and Xavier Legette was at the Senior Bowl where he measured in at 6'1 flat 223.

More All-Star Game Info can be found here:
http://thebengalsboard.com/Thread-Scouting-the-All-Star-games-2024

pic.twitter.com/T8oNVO4osX

— Reese's Senior Bowl (@seniorbowl) January 29, 2024

I would have no problem waiting on Brooks he's the best all around back in the draft. I really like Benson and Allen also. Allen gives us the HUGE back we are missing. Benson gives us a nice sized back who can pass block and also do the other things well too. As far as WR goes I really like Legette but if they prefer a taller WR i really like Adonai Mitchell and Keon Coleman.