What A Haul Simulation

[OSUfan]

I am really starting to see how a selection here and there could have a major benefit for the Bengals in the '24 draft. A theme I continue to see in the simulations is the possibility of how offensive tackles are ranked by individual teams according to what they value in the position and how highly teams may have some of the DTs valued in this draft. 

I am pretty much running with most of the same assumptions at this point in time when I am drafting in a simulation and they are that the Bengals will lose the following players for sure in free agency: Tyler Boyd, Chido Awuzie, Jonah Williams, Irv Smith

The following players more than likely return: Tanner Hudson, Trenton Irwin, Joe Bachie, Cal Adomitis, 

Strong possibility to return: Reader - on a 1 year deal, Tee Higgins - on franchise tag, Cody Ford, Drew Sample

In this simulation it was Fuaga (10) and Latham (14) going higher in the draft as well as Newton (16) that allowed a key prospect to slide to the Bengals. Following is the draft:
   
   

[OSUfan]

RD. 1 - 18th Selection:
Olumuyiwa Fashanu - OT - Penn State - 6'6" 325

And just like that the issue at RT is fixed as well as a true heir apparent at LT should Brown Jr. not return after this contract. At 18 the Bengals were looking at Brock Bowers and McKinstry on the boards as well as Fashanu. I believe the Bengals have to fix the trenches on both sides of the ball if they want to consistently what to compete for SuperBowls. Fashanu truly checks all the boxes when you are looking for a dominant tackle at the NFL level. He has the athleticism to mirror speed and the anchor to match power.

Fashanu brings elite athleticism, size, and length to the position and should have no problem being the day 1 starting RT. This is not to say that he is a perfect prospect. Fashanu can continue to improve upon his pad level consistency in both the passing and running game as well just continuing to hone technique in the run game but overall he is an elite level prospect that should be an instant upgrade to the Bengals offensive line.

RD. 2 - 49th Selection:
T'Vondre Sweat - DT - Texas - 6'4" 346
I believe being a true NT is what lands Sweat here for the Bengals but it as well lines up value with need for them. Sweat gives them the player the have been lacking to relieve Reader without a drop off in talent should Reader return and if Reader does not return it gives them the NT they need to replace him. Stopping the run is a must in the AFC North and it is the specialty of Sweat. With that said he can also collapse a pocket in the passing game. While Sweat to not record a bunch of sacks at Texas he was very proficient at pressuring the QB. 

Sweat can consistently require as well as fight thru double teams while having outstanding burst off of the ball for a man his size. He plays with great leverage and violent hands. 

RD. 3 - 80th Selection:
Ruke Orhorhoro - DT - Clemson - 6'4" 290

I had no intention of going back to back on DTs but I also did not believe that Orhorhoro would be sitting there in the 3rd round for the Bengals. The Bengals got a difference making NT in round 2 and they follow up with a difference making 3 technique in the 3rd round. Ruke is just a naturally strong and athletic player that is amazing to watch when you consider he did not start playing football until his junior year in high school. Clemson has a reputation for putting out productive and very well coached defensive linemen and he definitely follows in that mold.

Elite explosion off of the ball to go with very good pure power and leverage. He plays with violent hands and understands how to use clubs and rips to defeat blockers. Plays with a high motor at all times and you have to believe that he will only get better as he continues to grow in the game. The interior of the Bengals defensive line is massively upgraded heading into the '24 season.

RD. 4 - 116th Selection:
Brenden Rice - WR - USC - 6'2" 212

The Bengals lands a very savvy WR prospect in the son of Hall of Famer Jerry Rice. Rice is a big bodied, long armed, vertical threat that understands how to play the position. He has an outstanding catch radius that could be byproduct of his 78" + wingspan. He is a physical receiver and is an excellent blocker in the running game which is a must for Bengals receivers. 

Rice should be ready to make instant contributions early on due to his high football IQ and natural instincts for playing the position.

RD. 5 - 148th Selection:
Will Shipley - RB - Clemson - 5'11" 210

Shipley is an exciting runner that is really sound in all facets of the game. He brings elite vision to go with outstanding burst and acceleration. When he sees a hole he hits it immediately and is very good at setting up and using his blockers at the second level. When he gets in the open field he has the long speed to take it to the house. Outstanding receiving skills and productive after the catch. Shipley is not a world beater in pass protection but he also is not terrible. He is high effort at the task and accomplishes more than just getting in the way. Improving his overall strength could go along way in improving his abilities as a pass protector.

Shipley should be a very good addition to the running game to play behind Chase Brown and provide the Bengals with the dynamic running game that they have been missing.

RD. 5 - 175th Selection:
Brevyn Spann-Ford - TE - Minnesota - 6'6" 267

Spann-Ford is a devastating blocker and vastly underrated as a receiver who was underutilized by Minnesota in this aspect but delivered when he was targeted. Offers an immediate size mismatch against most every defender and is a huge target in the redzone. He is a natural hands catcher and has very good athleticism and good speed for his size. His ability to be a very effective blocker should provide him the opportunity to see the field early for the Bengals.

RD. 6 - 196th Selection:
Sataoa Laumea - OL - Utah - 6'4" 319

Laumea has experience playing both guard and tackle for the Utes but played his best football on the inside which is where the Bengals would look for him to play at the NFL level. While he does not have excellent length to play the edge he has very good length to play inside. He brings good natural power that allows him to displace defenders in the run game and that natural strength allows him to anchor very well in the passing game. While he does not have the athleticism to play on the edge at the NFL level he does have very good athleticism to play on the inside. 

Laumea should be an excellent addition to the O line room as a true guard prospect for the Bengals and if others on the interior do not elevate their games then he could look to take a starting spot before the season is over.

RD. 7 - 235th Selection:
Dwight McGlothern - CB - Arkansas - 6'1" 185

A tall lean defender that brings good size and length to the position as well as excellent ball skills. He produced 6 interceptions over the past two seasons and a passer rating of under 50 when targeted. With the probable loss of of Awuzie in free agency and the uncertainty of the availability of Ivey after his devastating injury the Bengals need to add some depth to the room. Dwight brings the length and size that the Bengals currently do not have at the position with the injury to Ivey. McGlothern should be really welcome addition to the room.

RD. 7 - 252nd Selection:
Jarius Monroe - CB - Tulane - 6'0" 204

The Bengals add another high value good ceiling CB prospect with their last selection. Monroe made the jump from Nicholls State to Tulane and showed that the move up in competition was not above him. He brings good size and speed at the position and plays with outstanding physicality. Monroe is an excellent tackler and does not shy away from support in the run game. Another high value late round prospect that should figure to make an immediate impact on special teams and solid depth in the CB room with the potential to be a quality starting caliber CB at the NFL level. 

[Mike M (the other one)]

If you are looking for a couple of high ceiling late round steals then watch out for:
Decorian Patterson DB UCF
Jamree Kromah DT James Madison
Travis Glover OT Georgia St

[*ochocincos*]

Spann-Ford definitely has the size and ability to block.
I'd be cool with him as a Day 3 pick to be TE2/TE3.

With that said, he's more of a safety blanket and plodder type of TE.
He'll be better in a run-oriented offense than a high-powered passing one.

I think fans would be unexcited if Spann was the only new TE added to the offense, but if you also added someone like Brock Bowers early or a FA like Noah Fant or Dalton Schultz, I think people would really like that scenario.

[OSUfan]

(02-23-2024, 12:30 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Spann-Ford definitely has the size and ability to block.
I'd be cool with him as a Day 3 pick to be TE2/TE3.

With that said, he's more of a safety blanket and plodder type of TE.
He'll be better in a run-oriented offense than a high-powered passing one.

I think fans would be unexcited if Spann was the only new TE added to the offense, but if you also added someone like Brock Bowers early or a FA like Noah Fant or Dalton Schultz, I think people would really like that scenario.

Then it would seem that people do not understand the role of the TE in the scheme that the Bengals employee. Many fans have shiny new toy syndrome. The TE is not a star in this scheme rather a blocker first, outlet second, and overall a role player. I understand that PFF claims that Bowers is like the most dominant blocker that college football has ever seen but the eye test sure says differently. Could it be his lack of snaps in the role works in his favor in this case? He will get destroyed by the DEs at the NFL level.

Hurst and Uzomah have played well in this offense because they understood the role and them excelling in the role should speak volumes as to why drafting an undersized TE with the 18th selection would be a waste in value.

Calling Spann-Ford a plodder I think gives credit to the lack of use of him as a receiver by Minnesota and discredits his abilities as a receiver. Watch tape of him catching the ball and in the open field and plodder is not the description that appears to be correct.

[*ochocincos*]

(02-23-2024, 03:58 PM)OSUfan Wrote: Then it would seem that people do not understand the role of the TE in the scheme that the Bengals employee. Many fans have shiny new toy syndrome. The TE is not a star in this scheme rather a blocker first, outlet second, and overall a role player. I understand that PFF claims that Bowers is like the most dominant blocker that college football has ever seen but the eye test sure says differently. Could it be his lack of snaps in the role works in his favor in this case? He will get destroyed by the DEs at the NFL level.

Hurst and Uzomah have played well in this offense because they understood the role and them excelling in the role should speak volumes as to why drafting an undersized TE with the 18th selection would be a waste in value.

Calling Spann-Ford a plodder I think gives credit to the lack of use of him as a receiver by Minnesota and discredits his abilities as a receiver. Watch tape of him catching the ball and in the open field and plodder is not the description that appears to be correct.

I opened footage of his games and he looks pedestrian to me from a speed and agility perspective.
He'll make catches but he's not going to get much YAC unless he's wide open.

You say we basically have to understand that a TE doesn't need to be a good receiver in the Bengals offense and they really just need a blocker, but couldn't there always be room for improvement at a position if someone can come in and be more dynamic?
Yes blocking is important for a TE in the Bengals scheme, but we've heard that they had Dalton Kincaid targeted in last year's draft.
Kincaid was (and is) a very good receiver.
If what was said was true, it sounded like they did have visions to make the TE position more dynamic and maybe even a bigger part of the offense.
We might even see it more emphasized with a new OC.

Let's also not misunderstand that the Bengals (and most teams) do not actually use their TEs much for pass blocking. If they block, it's predominantly run blocking only.
TEs are more often going out on routes if used on passing downs.

So what the Bengals need at the TE position is someone who can succeed as a receiver and run block, first and foremost.
They have a need for both, and they might have to get two different TEs if they can't find someone who can do both well.

[OSUfan]

(02-23-2024, 04:23 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I opened footage of his games and he looks pedestrian to me from a speed and agility perspective.
He'll make catches but he's not going to get much YAC unless he's wide open.

You say we basically have to understand that a TE doesn't need to be a good receiver in the Bengals offense and they really just need a blocker, but couldn't there always be room for improvement at a position if someone can come in and be more dynamic?
Yes blocking is important for a TE in the Bengals scheme, but we've heard that they had Dalton Kincaid targeted in last year's draft.
Kincaid was (and is) a very good receiver.
If what was said was true, it sounded like they did have visions to make the TE position more dynamic and maybe even a bigger part of the offense.
We might even see it more emphasized with a new OC.

Let's also not misunderstand that the Bengals (and most teams) do not actually use their TEs much for pass blocking. If they block, it's predominantly run blocking only.
TEs are more often going out on routes if used on passing downs.

So what the Bengals need at the TE position is someone who can succeed as a receiver and run block, first and foremost.
They have a need for both, and they might have to get two different TEs if they can't find someone who can do both well.

Please show me where I stated that a Bengals TE does not need to be able to catch the ball. I will wait before responding to anything else.

[*ochocincos*]

(02-23-2024, 06:15 PM)OSUfan Wrote: Please show me where I stated that a Bengals TE does not need to be able to catch the ball. I will wait before responding to anything else.

I did not say that you said they don't need to be able to catch the ball.
What I was meaning was you were making it sound like being a receiver is not very important for TEs in the Bengals offense.

Here is what you said prior...
"The TE is not a star in this scheme rather a blocker first, outlet second, and overall a role player. "


Here were the pass vs block snaps by primary TE each of the past 3 years:
2021 (Uzomah) - 594 receiving reps, 48 pass block, 323 run block
2022 (Hurst) - 510 receiving reps, 16 pass block, 149 run block
2023 (Hudson): 240 receiving reps, 2 pass block, 34 run block


Every single season the past 3 years, the TE was running out on routes more than they were blocking.


So the Bengals do need a quality receiver at TE, as they are using TE a good amount in the passing game.
The TEs just hasn't been as productive as the 3 WRs in the passing game to-date.

[*ochocincos*]

(02-23-2024, 06:37 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I did not say that you said they don't need to be able to catch the ball.
What I was meaning was you were making it sound like being a receiver is not very important for TEs in the Bengals offense.

Here is what you said prior...
"The TE is not a star in this scheme rather a blocker first, outlet second, and overall a role player. "


Here were the pass vs block snaps by primary TE each of the past 3 years:
2021 (Uzomah) - 594 receiving reps, 48 pass block, 323 run block
2022 (Hurst) - 510 receiving reps, 16 pass block, 149 run block
2023 (Hudson): 240 receiving reps, 2 pass block, 34 run block


Every single season the past 3 years, the TE was running out on routes more than they were blocking.


So the Bengals do need a quality receiver at TE, as they are using TE a good amount in the passing game.
The TEs just hasn't been as productive as the 3 WRs in the passing game to-date.

I also wanna add that had Hudson gotten 500+ receiving reps like we saw with Hurst and Uzomah, we may have seen a TE finally have 600+ yards again.
We haven't seen that since Eifert's 2015 season.
Hudson had 352 yards on just 240 receiving snaps last year.

If OP wanted to re-sign Hudson as the main TE and draft BSF to act as TE2/3, I'd be ok with that plan.

As for BSF's agility and speed, we'll ultimately see how he does in the upcoming Combine/Pro Day drills, but his tape doesn't look very fast or twitchy to me.
Again, not saying he's bad, as I like what he has to offer in a Drew Sample type of depth role.

[OSUfan]

(02-23-2024, 06:53 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I also wanna add that had Hudson gotten 500+ receiving reps like we saw with Hurst and Uzomah, we may have seen a TE finally have 600+ yards again.
We haven't seen that since Eifert's 2015 season.
Hudson had 352 yards on just 240 receiving snaps last year.

If OP wanted to re-sign Hudson as the main TE and draft BSF to act as TE2/3, I'd be ok with that plan.

As for BSF's agility and speed, we'll ultimately see how he does in the upcoming Combine/Pro Day drills, but his tape doesn't look very fast or twitchy to me.
Again, not saying he's bad, as I like what he has to offer in a Drew Sample type of depth role.

Those are great stats and thank you for posting them. What I find even better about those stats are that they absolutely show that the Bengals do not need to use the 18th overall selection to select a TE. These stats prove that the Bengals offense and use of the TE does not at all require a high draft selection. As well, if you look at my posted assumptions for virtually every simulation I have done it is that Tanner Hudson is back with the Bengals and almost certainly so as he is a restricted free agent.


However, while you are attempting to downplay the importance of the TE as a blocker for the Bengals you may want to find out why Hudson did not start the season on the 53 even after his preseason showing. From every account I have been able to find it was because he had to clean up some issues in his blocking game as his receiving ability was not really in question.


Thank you for sharing the stats though I appreciate the time you put into compiling those and they do make me reconsider somethings when looking at Bengals prospects. I will be doing another simulation with my reconsidered thoughts on the TE position. I also hope that under our new OC that they will revamp somethings within the offense and that we will see more use of under center snaps and a heavier emphasis on play action as we saw with Jake Browning. I believe employing these as a standard in our offense makes Joe Burrow even more dangerous and could expand the role of the TE even more.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

Love this mock OSUfan. Fashanu, Sweat, Orhorhoro would really upgrade the trenches and make us so much more physical. I also
really like the Will Shipley addition, he is physical as well as the other attributes you listed. I think this is what we need to add more
than anything this Offseason, physicality.

Good job.

[*ochocincos*]

(02-24-2024, 03:38 PM)OSUfan Wrote: Those are great stats and thank you for posting them. What I find even better about those stats are that they absolutely show that the Bengals do not need to use the 18th overall selection to select a TE. These stats prove that the Bengals offense and use of the TE does not at all require a high draft selection. As well, if you look at my posted assumptions for virtually every simulation I have done it is that Tanner Hudson is back with the Bengals and almost certainly so as he is a restricted free agent.


However, while you are attempting to downplay the importance of the TE as a blocker for the Bengals you may want to find out why Hudson did not start the season on the 53 even after his preseason showing. From every account I have been able to find it was because he had to clean up some issues in his blocking game as his receiving ability was not really in question.


Thank you for sharing the stats though I appreciate the time you put into compiling those and they do make me reconsider somethings when looking at Bengals prospects. I will be doing another simulation with my reconsidered thoughts on the TE position. I also hope that under our new OC that they will revamp somethings within the offense and that we will see more use of under center snaps and a heavier emphasis on play action as we saw with Jake Browning. I believe employing these as a standard in our offense makes Joe Burrow even more dangerous and could expand the role of the TE even more.

I never said the Bengals needed to use the 18th pick on a TE, but if the Bengals were to take a TE in the 1st round, the only TE worth taking is Bowers.

I've been in the camp of re-signing Hudson, re-signing Sample, and drafting a TE in Rd 3 or later.
Or instead of Hudson/Sample, get Schultz or Fant.
Regardless though, I don't see BSF as a TE who will make much of an impact from a yardage production perspective, but he's a damn good blocker and I'd be happy to have him as a backup and role player.