Trading Down in 1st/2nd Round

[FormerlyBengalRugby]

I feel at 18, too much opportunity will drop for the Bengals to trade out. Multiple players the Bengals would almost have to take could be there.

Bowers
Murphy
you could argue the case for multiple o-linemen

That said, if the right players fall, the Bengals could land a windfall.

I would rather see the Bengals overdraft and get the perfect fit at 18 than gamble and lose out. Keep Burrow upright stop the run, and get to the Super Bowl.

[depthchart]

(03-26-2024, 01:27 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: He is NOT gonna be there at #49, methinks. And I think Jackson is unlikely at #80.

So you either have to reach, trade down, or live with the hole. 

This is why letting Reader get away was so dumb. The ability to replace him is impossible in FA and very unlikely in the draft. And there is an opportunity cost to doing it in the draft (reaching, trading down, leaving another hole, etc). 

Yes, I know we'd still have a NT issue at the start of the season, but it is a good bet it would not be at the end.

T'vondre Sweat's weight concerns me. He weighed in at 366 pounds at the Combine at 6 foot 4 and 1/2 inches tall.

McKinnley Jackson weighed in at 326 pounds at 6 foot 1 and 1/2 inches tall.

*I see via a Google Search that T'vondre Sweat is the heaviest Defensive Player to weigh in at the Combine since 2013.

**I just wonder how healthy Sweat will be over time (will he gain even more weight) and will he have a short Career ?

***I actually prefer McKinley Jackson as early as pick #49 (or maybe a 10 pick Trade Down to say pick #59) to make sure to get the NT

[Whatever]

(03-31-2024, 03:57 PM)depthchart Wrote: T'vondre Sweat's weight concerns me. He weighed in at 366 pounds at the Combine at 6 foot 4 and 1/2 inches tall.

McKinnley Jackson weighed in at 326 pounds at 6 foot 1 and 1/2 inches tall.

*I see via a Google Search that T'vondre Sweat is the heaviest Defensive Player to weigh in at the Combine since 2013.

**I just wonder how healthy Sweat will be over time (will he gain even more weight) and will he have a short Career ?

***I actually prefer McKinley Jackson as early as pick #49 (or maybe a 10 pick Trade Down to say pick #59) to make sure to get the NT

Sweat refused to weigh in at the Senior Bowl, but scouts thought he looked 380+ there.

No way in hell I take Jackson in 2, though.  Late 3 at earliest.

[phil413]

(03-26-2024, 01:02 PM)Whatever Wrote: Trade downs always sound great in the sims, where too good to be true type deals are common and you have standby trade proposals you know the sim will take if a certain player doesn't fall to a certain pick.

However, for practical purposes, if there's nobody you like at a pick, what makes you think another team is going to give up a bunch to move into said spot?  Need comes into play, obviously, but unless a team is desperate for a QB or completely in love with a certain prospect, it rarely happens.

As always, it depends on who's on the board and what the offer is.

As an aside, folks really need to stop hinging the success of failure of this draft on the Bengals getting or not getting Sweat.  In all likelihood, they won't draft him, and those people are just setting themselves up for hysterics when it doesn't happen.

Yes, I've been saying the same thing about Sweat since I'm guessing 1/3 to 1/2 of the mocks have had him in the 2nd..based on most simulator spins having him there. 

I hate planning around a player being there, even if it's an ideal fit.  I'm not against trading down, even in a draft where we have 10 picks, but we have to be prepared for "our guy" not being there in all rounds. If clear cut BPA is a versatile OT that's probably a layup.  If the OP's scenario happens and they get fair value, I do like the depth of the class at need spots, but DT is so sparse that we may be reaching in every round in all of them.  I really advise spending a mid-late pick for a passable NT so we don't reach/overspend for a guy that may not contribute when we are trying to win a ring.  

[JoeyB2023]

(03-26-2024, 11:40 AM)Bengalstripes9 Wrote: I've been doing a bunch of mock drafts and it's rare that a player drops to the Bengals at 18.
Here and there I'll get a Corner or OT drop, and very rarely a WR.

What I find works best is if I trade down from 18 to attain the Cardinals pick 27 and pick 35.
We may have to give up our 2nd or lower picks to get it done.

But from that spot of having pick 27 and 35...

It's a guarantee to get Sweat at 35, and you can even trade down to pick 40 and get him and more picks.
If I don't trade at all and try to get Sweat at 49, I'm getting him 5% of the time at best.

At pick 27 I've had the following players fall:
Newton, Bowers, a few different OTs, Graham Barton

Having picks 27 and 35 is more valuable than having picks 18 and 49.
Pick 49 seems to miss out on our needs and I end up wanting to trade down anyway.

With picks 27 and 35, I can end up with Barton, Sweat, and the tackle from Yale at 80, then WR at the 3rd round comp and that is pretty good in my opinion.
It also allows the opportunity to take Newton, Sweat, OT, WR.
Or Bowers, Sweat, OT, WR.

I end up getting a lot more value in the trade down--especially because late 1st, early 2nd has a lot of players the Bengals need--Sweat being a big one.

That said, I would love it if one of the top corners or OTs fell at 18.

If they don't trade down in the 1st, and Sweat isn't there at 49...
Here is another great opportunity to trade down and accumulate 3rd/4th round picks.
There are a lot of good players in these rounds with high value.
I'm looking at OTs, IOL, WR, CB, and even DL.

Anyway, anyone else like the idea of a trade down?
Anyone not like the idea?

Agree 100000% but it all has to work out in real life for that. Too many egos for the draft to be predicted

[depthchart]

(03-31-2024, 08:09 PM)Whatever Wrote: Sweat refused to weigh in at the Senior Bowl, but scouts thought he looked 380+ there.

No way in hell I take Jackson in 2, though.  Late 3 at earliest.

T'vondre Sweat weighed in at 366 pounds at the Combine at 6 foot 4 and 1/2 inches tall & as you say maybe heavier at the Senior Bowl.

In the 2022 Draft NT Jordan Davis from Georgia was considered Huge at 6 foot 6 and 3/8  341 pounds.

Sweat was 25 pounds heavier than Davis (Both Combine weights)

Former NFL NT's Sam Adams & Albert Haynesworth were believed to have been playing at around 350 pounds later in their Careers.

[TecmoBengals]

(04-01-2024, 10:49 AM)depthchart Wrote: T'vondre Sweat weighed in at 366 pounds at the Combine at 6 foot 4 and 1/2 inches tall & as you say maybe heavier at the Senior Bowl.

In the 2022 Draft NT Jordan Davis from Georgia was considered Huge at 6 foot 6 and 3/8  341 pounds.

Sweat was 25 pounds heavier than Davis (Both Combine weights)

Former NFL NT's Sam Adams & Albert Haynesworth were believed to have been playing at around 350 pounds later in their Careers.

Well, call me surprised. Adams was about as big as DL could get, I thought. Sweat is 15+ pounds heavier? At what point does the extra weight decrease the athleticism and thus render the player useless?

Definitely don't use a 1st round pick on him.

[Bengalstripes9]

Here's another draft I did quick with a trade down.

I swapped picks 18 and 49 for 27 and 35 of the Cardinals and an additional pick (3rd or 4th, don't remember which).

I also traded down a little later in the draft so I could get both Brenden Rice and Luke McCaffrey.

I could have drafted DT McKinley Jackson over Blake Fischer, but went with the higher rated player.
It wouldn't be a bad thing to have two good OT prospects along with Carmon as backups.

Grabbing someone like Barton at the start of the 2nd is great value I think. He can play anywhere along the oline, but is listed as a center.
Both the top rated Centers were there at the top of the 2nd.

I'd like to have added a DT in there at some point but the value was better at OT with the 3rd round comp, so I took the higher rated player in OT Fischer.

I probably drafted too many WRs, but I like all (3) players. Burton is more pro-ready. But I like McCaffrey a lot, and Rice as well.
Maybe swap out Rice for the DT from Clemson or a tight end that can block.

I think the Bengals need to draft a corner at some point that can be a 4th string corner capable of being the #2 corner.
We definitely need corners that can tackle.

Main areas I'd like to see improvement are Oline, corner, wide receiver, and Dline.
I'd have hit all those needs if I reached on McKinley instead of drafting Fischer, and maybe that's the better move--but overall you have to take the best player available regardless.

27 J.C. Latham
OT | Alabama
A+

35 Graham Barton
IOL | Duke
A

79 Jermaine Burton
WR | Alabama
A

80 Kris Abrams-Draine
CB | Missouri
A

97 Blake Fisher
OT | Notre Dame
B+

109 Austin Booker
EDGE | Kansas
A+

128 Brenden Rice
WR | USC
B+

133 Luke McCaffrey
WR | Rice
B

197 Chau Smith-Wade
CB | Washington State
B+

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(04-01-2024, 11:07 AM)TecmoBengals Wrote: Well, call me surprised. Adams was about as big as DL could get, I thought. Sweat is 15+ pounds heavier? At what point does the extra weight decrease the athleticism and thus render the player useless?

Definitely don't use a 1st round pick on him.

For sure, I take the guy that made Sweat look better than he actually was at Texas, Byron Murphy who is in fantastic shape, is a better run 
stopper, better pass rusher and has great character in the 1st round.