2 Sim Comparison

[OSUfan]

It is interesting how much a simulation can change just with the simple change of a first round selection. I ran these simulations back to back changing up the first round selection for the Bengals and this is how they ended up. Which would you like better? Can you not stand either of them? Would you be happy with either of them?


Simulation 1:
   

RD. 1 – 18th Overall:
Quinyon Mitchell – CB – Toledo – 6’0” 195
With this selection Brock Bowers and Byron Murphy were both still on the board. However, when looking at BPA in accordance with greatest need I felt as if Mitchell by far fit the best. The Bengals are dangerously thin at CB in a passing league. They have CTB and Turner on the outside and Hilton in the slot. Outside of that they have Ivey, whose availability to start the season is in question, to go with Allan George and Jalen Davis. An injury to any of the top 3 could be detrimental. Another question could be is Turner more suited to be outside or in the slot as the heir apparent to Hilton?
In Mitchell you get a corner that checks every single box for a standout NFL corner, and he tops it with elite speed. Some may point to him playing in the MAC but he put on a clinic at the Senior Bowl matching up with all of the top receivers there. I would not be shocked at all to see Mitchell displace Turner on opening day as a boundary starter across from Taylor-Britt. He is a physical corner that is well built and plays with good technique.
Mitchell is a real value selection for the Bengals at #18 and helps to solidify the CB position for them after the loss of Awuzie.

RD. 2 – 49th Overall:
Braden Fiske – DT – Fla. State – 6’4” 292
Fiske does not sport great length and size but what he does have is elite explosiveness, work ethic, and a motor that never shuts down. The slightest delay by a lineman will severely cost them against Fiske. Fiske has very active hands that generate pretty good pop and that paired with his explosiveness can create real problems for offensive linemen. I do have concerns about his length, but he seems to have learned how to play within his stature and make it work for him. Should make for an explosive combination with Rankins, especially on passing downs.

RD. 3 – 80th Overall:
Blake Fisher – OT – Notre Dame – 6’6” 310
With the FA signing of Trent Brown the Bengals positioned themselves with not having to take an OT in the first round. However, they lucked out and grabbed a fringe first round talent in the third round. There is an argument to be made that in many other drafts Blake Fisher is a first round selection all day long. One NFL personnel executive went as far as to state that Fisher comes with more natural talent than Alt but the outstanding technique of Alt puts him ahead of Fisher.  Fisher has a season to hone technique and become more consistent while learning from two of the top OTs in the game right now.

RD. 3 – 97th Overall:
Javon Baker – WR – UCF – 6’1” 202
Baker is just a complete receiver that is mature in his ability and technique and who has a legit opportunity to see early playing time and to be impactful in doing so. He plays a brand of football that translates extremely well to the transition to the pro game. While he may not be elite in any one area, he is good and solid in all of them. Baker understands how to play the WR position and is QB friendly. This is a great grab for the Bengals in overall value and he should immediately help to fill the gap the Bengals may feel from losing Boyd to free agency. A solid weapon for Burrow to exploit.

RD. 4 – 115th Overall:
Ben Sinnott – TE – Kansas St. – 6’4” 250Sinnott is a weapon as a receiver, and he can threaten all three levels of the defense and his skill as a route runner makes him a difficult cover. While he is not a devasting blocker he should not be considered deficient in this area either. He has played both H back and inline TE, so he can do many things for an offense. Another good value for the selection for the Bengals who continue to build upon the offense that they already have.

RD. 5 – 149th Overall:
Isaiah Adams – OL – Illinois – 6’4” 315
In the next couple of seasons, the Bengals are going to have big decisions to make on the offensive line with Karras a FA after ’24 and both Cappa and Volson being FAs after ’25. In Adams the Bengals grab a guy who I believe could be one of the best guards to come out of this draft. Unfortunately, he is often judged by his play as an OT. If you want to see the real talent of Adams watch the ’22 film with him playing at LG. The ’22 film shows a talented interior line player who both can anchor in pass protection and displace defenders in the running game. In the running game Adams displays the nasty disposition you want to see in a block finisher, which this line is lacking to a degree.

RD. 6 – 194th Overall:
Khristian Boyd – DT – N. Iowa – 6’2” 329
I was shocked to see this young man still on the boards, but it turns out to be a real benefit or the Bengals. Boyd is an FCS riser that showed up at the Shrine Bowl and dominated the FBS linemen that he faced. He was virtually unstoppable in practices and had a strong showing in the game displaying that the jump in talent level was not too big for him. I think the Bengals are going to look to change their approach to the NT position, but I believe that Domenique Davis and Boyd will make for a very solid pair of run stoppers and possibly beyond if they recognize their full potential. Boyd is an extremely strong prospect that played the true nose in the 3-4 of N. Iowa and who has shown the ability to anchor against double teams and consistently defeat them. He has also displayed the ability to pressure the QB.

RD. 6 – 214th Overall:
Hunter Nourzad – C – Penn State – 6’3” 317
As previously stated, the Bengals have some offensive line decisions coming up and one of the most pressing is at center. Karras is a free agent after this season and will be 32 going prior to the ’25 season. There are many that feel like Nourzad has early starting ability and he played in an extremely physical conference and did it at a very high level. I feel that in Hunter they have a better center prospect to potentially replace Karras by far than anything that they have on their roster currently. Hunter has also played OG so provides them some versatility off the bench in ’24.

RD. 7 – 224th Overall:
Rasheen Ali – RB – Marshall – 5’11” 206

Ali does not dance around, rather is a one-cut runner that looks for the hole and then hits it. He displayed a very consistent running style at Marshall despite having subpar blocking in front of him much of the time. He seems to display good vision and does not hesitate when he sees his opening. A good receiver out of the backfield but probably most importantly for a rookie back he is a very solid pass protector. Ali has definitely been productive at Marshall having recorded over 1,100 yards twice and generating over 40 TDs.

RD. 7 – 237th Overall:
Tory Taylor – P – Iowa – 6’4” 223
It seems clear that the Brad Robbins experiment did not yield the results that were expected. Yes, he was only a rookie, but he was also statistically the worst punter in the league. Taylor has a huge leg and has placed over 160 punts inside the 20. A competition is at least in order as punting can be a critical factor in winning a game. Low risk and high reward proposition at this point in the draft for an area of critical need.

[OSUfan]

Simulation 2:
   
RD. 1 – 18th Overall:
Byron Murphy II – DT – Texas – 6’.5” 297
The Bengals needed to get better on the interior of the defensive line, and they started the process with the signing of Sheldon Rankins, and they continued it with the drafting of Murphy. Murphy is just one compact ball of muscle, explosion, and disruption. Murphy, while slight by NFL standards, is extremely powerful and plays with elite leverage. Even for his size, Murphy has shown the ability to anchor against and consistently defeat double teams. The Bengals seem to be trending toward a different look upfront to create more disruption while still having the ability to stop the run and Murphy should fit well in this new look.

RD. 2 – 49th Overall:
Troy Franklin – WR – Oregon – 6’2” 176
Franklin has been compared to Chris Olave and I find that to be a good comparison as their games are very similar. Franklin is coming off an Oregon single season record of over 1,300 receiving yards as well as the Oregon single season record in receiving TDs with 14. He is a tall rangy WR with good speed and the ability to threaten the deep part of the secondary on a regular basis. Good route runner that will create separation with his suddenness and elite leaper. Franklin is not a physical receiver and can get jammed by physical corners but when he gets past them, they are in trouble.

RD. 3 – 80th Overall:
Trey Benson – RB – Fla. State – 6’0” 216
I had no intention of taking a RB at this point in the draft but Benson was by far the best player on the board and tremendous value with the 80th overall selection. He is a big back with elite speed that has good hands out of the backfield. NFL coaching should help him hone his game and help him to improve his vision and to know when to stay with the run called and when to improvise. However, he has the size and speed that cannot be taught.

RD. 3 – 97th Overall:
Renardo Green – CB – Fla. State – 6’0” 186
With the loss of Awuzie in free agency and the uncertainty on the availability of Ivey after his devastating injury the Bengals are rather thin at the CB position. An injury to Hilton, Turner, or CTB would leave the Bengals to depend on Jalen Davis and Allan George. Green is an extremely sound corner that displayed good skills against the outstanding LSU receiving corp. Green will need to temper his physical style of play a bit in the NFL to avoid flags but overall, he is a very solid cover man who can play the run as well.

RD. 4 – 115th Overall:
Zak Zinter – G/C – Michigan – 6’6” 309
Zinter was the best player on the offensive line that won back-to-back Moore awards, was a team captain in ’23, and finished as a finalist for the William V. Campbell Trophy in ’23. Zinter played guard for the Wolverines but took extensive snaps at center in practices for the team and some believe he could be a Pro Bowl NFL center. Zinter is physical and smart and plays with solid technique. He is rarely ever just plain beaten and plays with a nasty streak. The Bengals have some offensive line decisions to make after ’24 and ’25 and Zinter gives them options on the interior of the line.

RD. 5 – 149th Overall:
Matt Goncalves – OT – Pitt – 6’6” 327Goncalves was a team captain and has started at both tackle positions for Pitt. He is thick and beefy and should project as a RT at the NFL level. Will have a season to work on technique issues to further improve his game. Could struggle with the NFL speed on the left side so is probably a RT only prospect but he displays a good ability to understand pocket depth and keeping defenders clear of the QB. Has the natural power to anchor against bull rushers on the right side of the line.

RD. 6 – 19th Overall:
Dallin Holker  - TE -  Colorado St. – 6’3” 241
Holker is limited in his blocking ability but is a smooth and natural athlete and that shows in his receiving abilities. Holker displays really good ball skills and the ability to challenge for the contested throw. Really good body control increases his catch radius and his tape shows some real circus catches. Could be utilized in this offense to help ease the pain of losing Tyler Boyd in free agency.

RD. 6 – 214th Overall:
Jaden Crumedy – DT – Miss. State – 6’4” 301
Crumedy is a run stopping specialist. While only being just over 300 lbs. Crumedy is able to generate outstanding power off of the snap and has displayed the ability to operate against double teams. Crumedy shows the ability to disengage against the double team and attack the ball carrier. While he is not an impressive pass rusher, he still has the ability to disrupt the pocket and keep the QB uncomfortable.

RD. 7 – 224th Overall:
Caedan Wallace – OT - Penn St. – 6’5” 314
To find Wallace here at 224th is a steal for the Bengals. Wallace is a very experienced RT with starter abilities. Wallace also has the ability to slide inside and be a highly capable guard. With Wallace the have a player to compete for either RT or OG position in the future. In ’24 you have a very versatile reserve coming off the bench.

RD. 7 – 237th Overall:
Dwight McGlothern – CB – Arkansas – 6’2” 185
McGlothern is a tall, rangy corner who has displayed good ball skills against some high-powered SEC offenses. McGlothern can play man and off coverages but has really excelled in zone coverage where he can use his reaction time and closing speed to victimize QBs. McGlothern should be an outstanding depth piece for the Bengals secondary that truly has the ability to challenge for more snaps.

[CJD]

(04-14-2024, 08:58 AM)OSUfan Wrote: Simulation 2:

RD. 1 – 18th Overall:
Byron Murphy II – DT – Texas – 6’.5” 297
The Bengals needed to get better on the interior of the defensive line, and they started the process with the signing of Sheldon Rankins, and they continued it with the drafting of Murphy. Murphy is just one compact ball of muscle, explosion, and disruption. Murphy, while slight by NFL standards, is extremely powerful and plays with elite leverage. Even for his size, Murphy has shown the ability to anchor against and consistently defeat double teams. The Bengals seem to be trending toward a different look upfront to create more disruption while still having the ability to stop the run and Murphy should fit well in this new look.

RD. 2 – 49th Overall:
Troy Franklin – WR – Oregon – 6’2” 176
Franklin has been compared to Chris Olave and I find that to be a good comparison as their games are very similar. Franklin is coming off an Oregon single season record of over 1,300 receiving yards as well as the Oregon single season record in receiving TDs with 14. He is a tall rangy WR with good speed and the ability to threaten the deep part of the secondary on a regular basis. Good route runner that will create separation with his suddenness and elite leaper. Franklin is not a physical receiver and can get jammed by physical corners but when he gets past them, they are in trouble.

RD. 3 – 80th Overall:
Trey Benson – RB – Fla. State – 6’0” 216
I had no intention of taking a RB at this point in the draft but Benson was by far the best player on the board and tremendous value with the 80th overall selection. He is a big back with elite speed that has good hands out of the backfield. NFL coaching should help him hone his game and help him to improve his vision and to know when to stay with the run called and when to improvise. However, he has the size and speed that cannot be taught.

RD. 3 – 97th Overall:
Renardo Green – CB – Fla. State – 6’0” 186
With the loss of Awuzie in free agency and the uncertainty on the availability of Ivey after his devastating injury the Bengals are rather thin at the CB position. An injury to Hilton, Turner, or CTB would leave the Bengals to depend on Jalen Davis and Allan George. Green is an extremely sound corner that displayed good skills against the outstanding LSU receiving corp. Green will need to temper his physical style of play a bit in the NFL to avoid flags but overall, he is a very solid cover man who can play the run as well.

RD. 4 – 115th Overall:
Zak Zinter – G/C – Michigan – 6’6” 309
Zinter was the best player on the offensive line that won back-to-back Moore awards, was a team captain in ’23, and finished as a finalist for the William V. Campbell Trophy in ’23. Zinter played guard for the Wolverines but took extensive snaps at center in practices for the team and some believe he could be a Pro Bowl NFL center. Zinter is physical and smart and plays with solid technique. He is rarely ever just plain beaten and plays with a nasty streak. The Bengals have some offensive line decisions to make after ’24 and ’25 and Zinter gives them options on the interior of the line.

RD. 5 – 149th Overall:
Matt Goncalves – OT – Pitt – 6’6” 327Goncalves was a team captain and has started at both tackle positions for Pitt. He is thick and beefy and should project as a RT at the NFL level. Will have a season to work on technique issues to further improve his game. Could struggle with the NFL speed on the left side so is probably a RT only prospect but he displays a good ability to understand pocket depth and keeping defenders clear of the QB. Has the natural power to anchor against bull rushers on the right side of the line.

RD. 6 – 19th Overall:
Dallin Holker  - TE -  Colorado St. – 6’3” 241
Holker is limited in his blocking ability but is a smooth and natural athlete and that shows in his receiving abilities. Holker displays really good ball skills and the ability to challenge for the contested throw. Really good body control increases his catch radius and his tape shows some real circus catches. Could be utilized in this offense to help ease the pain of losing Tyler Boyd in free agency.

RD. 6 – 214th Overall:
Jaden Crumedy – DT – Miss. State – 6’4” 301
Crumedy is a run stopping specialist. While only being just over 300 lbs. Crumedy is able to generate outstanding power off of the snap and has displayed the ability to operate against double teams. Crumedy shows the ability to disengage against the double team and attack the ball carrier. While he is not an impressive pass rusher, he still has the ability to disrupt the pocket and keep the QB uncomfortable.

RD. 7 – 224th Overall:
Caedan Wallace – OT - Penn St. – 6’5” 314
To find Wallace here at 224th is a steal for the Bengals. Wallace is a very experienced RT with starter abilities. Wallace also has the ability to slide inside and be a highly capable guard. With Wallace the have a player to compete for either RT or OG position in the future. In ’24 you have a very versatile reserve coming off the bench.

RD. 7 – 237th Overall:
Dwight McGlothern – CB – Arkansas – 6’2” 185
McGlothern is a tall, rangy corner who has displayed good ball skills against some high-powered SEC offenses. McGlothern can play man and off coverages but has really excelled in zone coverage where he can use his reaction time and closing speed to victimize QBs. McGlothern should be an outstanding depth piece for the Bengals secondary that truly has the ability to challenge for more snaps.

I prefer this mock. Mitchell is a great player, but I don't think CB1 is a need as much as DT is. The downgrade from Murphy to Fiske is stark. I honestly don't like Fiske that much. Workout warriors give me pause. He is very slight for a DT and that shows in his tape. For how explosive he is, he does not show much power and he was pushed around in the run game. I think Fiske's most likely outcome is a 3rd down pass rusher in the NFL and I hesitate to spend a mid 2nd round pick on that player.

Murphy, on the other hand, is a day 1 3 down DT in the NFL. He has mastered DJ Reader's patented get down on 1 knee approach to taking on double teams without giving ground but he also is a terrific pass rusher.

Obviously, the biggest weakness of both of these drafts is not drafting a high impact offensive tackle in either case. Fisher is a better prospect than Goncalves, but not by a lot, in my opinion. I see them both settling into that serviceable RT role in the NFL. Good technicians who are not athletic enough to ever truly be dominant.

On the other side, Troy Franklin and Javon Baker are similar prospects in that they offer inside outside flexibility and speed, but Baker's drop percentage was 10.6% relative to Franklin's 7.3%. I think Franklin is a better route runner as well, which makes sense given the disparity of draft position. Watching Franklin reminds me of Chad. I know that's a high bar, but he has those quick feet that I really admire in a receiving prospect. If we draft Franklin, I'd feel like we have our #2 receiver of the future, whereas if we draft Baker, I feel like we're just throwing another name into the "hopefully this pile of receivers works out" pile along with Charlie and Andrei. This offense runs through its receivers, so adding premium talent here will usually trump other positions, in my opinion.

I also just really like Renardo Green. I have him as our ideal 3rd round target at CB in this draft. He's been getting rave reviews all off season about how well he mirrors wide receivers in man coverage. PFF graded him as one of the best man cover corner in this entire draft. He specializes in press coverage as well, which I know Lou would find a good use for. He is nowhere near the prospect Mitchell is, but he isn't a massive downgrade the way I perceive Murphy to Fiske or Franklin to Baker being.

And then obviously Benson is a fantastic addition to this running back room whereas Ali is just a late round lottery ticket.

Sinnott to Holker is a downgrade, but I don't think the Bengals really value TE enough to really look much more into that, so I value the upgrades at DT, WR and RB more than I value the upgrades at CB and TE.

A few of the late round picks I prefer in the other draft. Boyd over Crumedy, for example. But I'm not going to pick a draft because of the late round picks. It's all about the top 100 picks to me, and, in my opinion, Murphy, Franklin, Benson, Green blows Mitchell, Fiske, Fisher Baker out of the water.