CJD Final Mock Draft 4.0

[CJD]

   
Round 1, Pick 18: Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia

Round 2, Pick 49: Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon

Round 3, Pick 80: Ben Sinnott, TE, Kansas State

Round 3, Pick 97: DeWayne Carter, DT, Duke

Round 4, Pick 115: Tanor Bortolini, OC, Wisconsin

Round 5, Pick 149: Jaylen Wright, RB, Tennessee

Round 6, Pick 194: Khristian Boyd, DT, Northern Iowa

Round 6, Pick 213: Mohamed Kamara, Edge, Colorado State

Round 7, Pick 224: DeCamerion Richardson, CB, Mississippi State

Round 7, Pick 237: Ryan Rehkow, P, BYU

I used Joe Goodberry's spreadsheet with a bunch of statistics and insight to help craft this mock draft. You can find it here.

Round 1 pick is self explanatory at this point. We need a RT of the future and a backup OT for when Trent Brown (likely) gets injured at some point this season. Brown has only played 12 games or more in 3 of his 9 seasons. So we're looking at potentially needing a good back up OT for at least 6 games this year and maybe even the playoffs. May as well secure one who can lock down that side of the line for the next 10 years. Our last two Super Bowl runs have ended due to excessive injuries on the offensive line. No amount of depth is too much depth here.

Round 2 I think the value is at WR and IOL in most mock drafts I've done. The DTs that are typically available at this point are either situational pass rushers who are not likely to play 3 downs often in their careers (Fiske, Dorlus, Hall) or guys who require a fair amount of projection to expect much pass rush production out of (Jenkins, Orhorhoro, Smith). At WR, you routinely see Ricky Pearsall, Troy Franklin and Ja'Lynn Polk available at 49, all of whom would offer the Bengals inside outside flexibility and meet the majority of their commonly held metrics for WRs like high end production, speed (~4.50 maximum), breakout age (above 50% percentile), height (~5'11" or taller), and weight (~190 lbs or higher). None of them meet every metric, but they all meet 4 of the 5.

I chose Franklin because he has a lot of the traits I love in a WR for the Bengals and the one metric that he fails from above is weight, which the Bengals recently broke last year when they drafted Charlie Jones, who was also around 175 lbs. He does have a minor concern with drops, with a career drop percentage of 8.0, but the rest of his profile is sterling and I think he could play in the slot in 2024 and move outside in 2025 if we do not retain Tee Higgins. He's a fantastic vertical threat from both the slot and outside and he has shown a good understanding of varying releases, route running and *subtle* hand movements at the tops of routes to create separation. He would be an outstanding addition to this team that would have a lot of play time immediately and even more in 2025.

Round 3 I take a Tight End that honestly shouldn't be there at 80, but I would consider a steal. Sinnott has the size, market share production, RAS, and has blocking capability that I think the Bengals will covet at TE. There weren't any DTs that I viewed as worth this selection at the pick, so I went BPA and took a player that will be a great complement to this entire offense in 2025.

Round 3 Comp I grab the first DT in DeWayne Carter out of Duke. He has some good metrics for a late 3rd round pick, with a 9.9% pass rush win rate and a high market share production score (meaning he didn't have a lot of help on the team). His run stopping leaves something to be desired (4.9%), but he's a 3 time team captain and has an above average RAS (7.88). He is on the older side, but he should provide depth in a shallow DT room, which will likely be bolstered further in the 2025 off season.

Round 4 I selected Tanor Bortolini, who has long been a favorite of mine as an IOL prospect who could be a back up in 2024 and challenge for playing time in 2025 when contracts begin expiring. He has the magic number in the short shuttle, which is an indicator of success in the NFL for offensive linemen. He also comes from Wisconsin, which is a notorious OL factory. He is a little undersized, but the rest of his profile suggests potential to succeed in the NFL.

Round 5 I took a player who may not be available in Jaylen Wright. RB is increasingly being devalued in the NFL, which is good for teams that have a need there. Jaylen has elite speed (4.38), excellent pass blocking grades (PFF 73.1) and is an explosive runner, with a 19.35% career explosive run per attempt rating. He may fall this far because he's not a great receiver out of the backfield and has a minor fumbling issue, but with that pass blocking grade and explosive run rating, I think he's worth the risk in the 5th.

Round 6 Khristian Boyd is a Nose Tackle who has solid metrics behind him with a 12.2% pass rush win rate and a 7.7% run stop rate. He is not stellar athletically, but most NTs aren't. PFF loves him with an 89.0 grade, but these numbers may be a result of him playing in a smaller division. For what it's worth, Brett Kollman has spoken about him at length and seems to be convinced he'll be successful in the NFL. He has named him one of "his guys" that he's convinced will be successful in the NFL.

Round 6 Mo Kamara is another one of Brett Kollman's favorites. He showed out at the Shrine Bowl and was mentioned in his video on the best prospects no one is talking about. Thinks that Brett mentions in this video are bend, production and a profile similar to another Colorado State player who was underdrafted (or in his case, undrafted) in Shaq Barrett. Brett interviewed him at the Shrine Bowl if you're interested to hear him talk football.

We have 2 DEs entering their final year in Sample and Ossai. Adding some depth this late in the draft is a fine thing to do, especially with Hendrickson and Hubbard getting older.

Round 7 DeCamerion Richardson is a gamble on traits. Speed and length are Lou's favorite things in cornerback prospects, and Richardson has both, with a 6'2" frame and a 4.34 40. He is also a willing and able tackler who isn't afraid to engage in the run game. His weaknesses are anticipation and ball production (0 career INTs in 984 career coverage snaps), but he's not a bad bet in the 7th round.

Round 7 Ryan Rekhow is a punter and we need a punter. I didn't really know what else to add beyond these picks, so adding a punter was the obvious choice. Another guy on Brett Kollman's "My guys" list who leads the draft class in punt average in 2023, 48.3 yards. I don't know much else about this punter class, so if there's a better one than Rekhow, draft him. I hate seeing 39 yard punts on the regular.

[Truck_1_0_1_]

I think Boyd and Richardson would be GREAT picks: Richardson in particular, his instincts are superb, just a good, all-around football player.

[JoeyB2023]

(04-24-2024, 11:36 AM)CJD Wrote: Round 1, Pick 18: Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia

Round 2, Pick 49: Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon

Round 3, Pick 80: Ben Sinnott, TE, Kansas State

Round 3, Pick 97: DeWayne Carter, DT, Duke

Round 4, Pick 115: Tanor Bortolini, OC, Wisconsin

Round 5, Pick 149: Jaylen Wright, RB, Tennessee

Round 6, Pick 194: Khristian Boyd, DT, Northern Iowa

Round 6, Pick 213: Mohamed Kamara, Edge, Colorado State

Round 7, Pick 224: DeCamerion Richardson, CB, Mississippi State

Round 7, Pick 237: Ryan Rehkow, P, BYU

I used Joe Goodberry's spreadsheet with a bunch of statistics and insight to help craft this mock draft. You can find it here.

Round 1 pick is self explanatory at this point. We need a RT of the future and a backup OT for when Trent Brown (likely) gets injured at some point this season. Brown has only played 12 games or more in 3 of his 9 seasons. So we're looking at potentially needing a good back up OT for at least 6 games this year and maybe even the playoffs. May as well secure one who can lock down that side of the line for the next 10 years. Our last two Super Bowl runs have ended due to excessive injuries on the offensive line. No amount of depth is too much depth here.

Round 2 I think the value is at WR and IOL in most mock drafts I've done. The DTs that are typically available at this point are either situational pass rushers who are not likely to play 3 downs often in their careers (Fiske, Dorlus, Hall) or guys who require a fair amount of projection to expect much pass rush production out of (Jenkins, Orhorhoro, Smith). At WR, you routinely see Ricky Pearsall, Troy Franklin and Ja'Lynn Polk available at 49, all of whom would offer the Bengals inside outside flexibility and meet the majority of their commonly held metrics for WRs like high end production, speed (~4.50 maximum), breakout age (above 50% percentile), height (~5'11" or taller), and weight (~190 lbs or higher). None of them meet every metric, but they all meet 4 of the 5.

I chose Franklin because he has a lot of the traits I love in a WR for the Bengals and the one metric that he fails from above is weight, which the Bengals recently broke last year when they drafted Charlie Jones, who was also around 175 lbs. He does have a minor concern with drops, with a career drop percentage of 8.0, but the rest of his profile is sterling and I think he could play in the slot in 2024 and move outside in 2025 if we do not retain Tee Higgins. He's a fantastic vertical threat from both the slot and outside and he has shown a good understanding of varying releases, route running and *subtle* hand movements at the tops of routes to create separation. He would be an outstanding addition to this team that would have a lot of play time immediately and even more in 2025.

Round 3 I take a Tight End that honestly shouldn't be there at 80, but I would consider a steal. Sinnott has the size, market share production, RAS, and has blocking capability that I think the Bengals will covet at TE. There weren't any DTs that I viewed as worth this selection at the pick, so I went BPA and took a player that will be a great complement to this entire offense in 2025.

Round 3 Comp I grab the first DT in DeWayne Carter out of Duke. He has some good metrics for a late 3rd round pick, with a 9.9% pass rush win rate and a high market share production score (meaning he didn't have a lot of help on the team). His run stopping leaves something to be desired (4.9%), but he's a 3 time team captain and has an above average RAS (7.88). He is on the older side, but he should provide depth in a shallow DT room, which will likely be bolstered further in the 2025 off season.

Round 4 I selected Tanor Bortolini, who has long been a favorite of mine as an IOL prospect who could be a back up in 2024 and challenge for playing time in 2025 when contracts begin expiring. He has the magic number in the short shuttle, which is an indicator of success in the NFL for offensive linemen. He also comes from Wisconsin, which is a notorious OL factory. He is a little undersized, but the rest of his profile suggests potential to succeed in the NFL.

Round 5 I took a player who may not be available in Jaylen Wright. RB is increasingly being devalued in the NFL, which is good for teams that have a need there. Jaylen has elite speed (4.38), excellent pass blocking grades (PFF 73.1) and is an explosive runner, with a 19.35% career explosive run per attempt rating. He may fall this far because he's not a great receiver out of the backfield and has a minor fumbling issue, but with that pass blocking grade and explosive run rating, I think he's worth the risk in the 5th.

Round 6 Khristian Boyd is a Nose Tackle who has solid metrics behind him with a 12.2% pass rush win rate and a 7.7% run stop rate. He is not stellar athletically, but most NTs aren't. PFF loves him with an 89.0 grade, but these numbers may be a result of him playing in a smaller division. For what it's worth, Brett Kollman has spoken about him at length and seems to be convinced he'll be successful in the NFL. He has named him one of "his guys" that he's convinced will be successful in the NFL.

Round 6 Mo Kamara is another one of Brett Kollman's favorites. He showed out at the Shrine Bowl and was mentioned in his video on the best prospects no one is talking about. Thinks that Brett mentions in this video are bend, production and a profile similar to another Colorado State player who was underdrafted (or in his case, undrafted) in Shaq Barrett. Brett interviewed him at the Shrine Bowl if you're interested to hear him talk football.

We have 2 DEs entering their final year in Sample and Ossai. Adding some depth this late in the draft is a fine thing to do, especially with Hendrickson and Hubbard getting older.

Round 7 DeCamerion Richardson is a gamble on traits. Speed and length are Lou's favorite things in cornerback prospects, and Richardson has both, with a 6'2" frame and a 4.34 40. He is also a willing and able tackler who isn't afraid to engage in the run game. His weaknesses are anticipation and ball production (0 career INTs in 984 career coverage snaps), but he's not a bad bet in the 7th round.

Round 7 Ryan Rekhow is a punter and we need a punter. I didn't really know what else to add beyond these picks, so adding a punter was the obvious choice. Another guy on Brett Kollman's "My guys" list who leads the draft class in punt average in 2023, 48.3 yards. I don't know much else about this punter class, so if there's a better one than Rekhow, draft him. I hate seeing 39 yard punts on the regular.

Our offense would go to a entire new level of greatness with this draft but I’d be worried defensively. I’m not as high as most on Carter. I think he just looks like a nose but his tape is meh. I’m big in the trenches on both sides and I lean heavy defense especially since we have burrow and chase. I feel as if we neglected the defense here but again the offense would be ridiculous!

[Whatever]

Pretty solid, overall.  I'm not a big Mims guy, but with this loaded T class, it's kind of a what flavor of ice cream do you prefer question.  Franklin fills a need and is an interesting prospect.  Personally, Sinnott and Carter in the 3rd is a round too early for both, but stealing Wright in the 5th makes up for that a bit.  Pretty good.

[CJD]

(04-24-2024, 11:54 AM)Truck_1_0_1_ Wrote: I think Boyd and Richardson would be GREAT picks: Richardson in particular, his instincts are superb, just a good, all-around football player.

I don't want to make a habit of relying on late round picks to be contributors for a Super Bowl contending team, but I agree these guys have a lot of potential. If they result in any kind of production at all, I'd count that a win, but if they could reach their potential, I could see them both starting for a a while in the NFL.

(04-24-2024, 12:35 PM)JoeyB2023 Wrote: Our offense would go to a entire new level of greatness with this draft but I’d be worried defensively.  I’m not as high as most on Carter.  I think he just looks like a nose but his tape is meh.  I’m big in the trenches on both sides and I lean heavy defense especially since we have burrow and chase.  I feel as if we neglected the defense here but again the offense would be ridiculous!

Yea, unfortunately for me every time my pick came up, the best prospects were all on the offensive side of the ball. The one comfort I am keeping in this is that we did spend a fair amount of resources on the defense last year and in free agency this year. We signed 2 new safeties that should help reduce our explosive passing game weakness and we signed a really good pass rusher at DT. I was targeting Renardo Green in the 3rd round but he went 1 or 2 picks before 80, which was a shame. I think he'd solidify our CB room. It's difficult to fill each hole on the roster completely through the draft, so we'd have to see if some of these later round defensive picks can turn into something more than just depth pieces/practice squadders. I like the potential of Boyd, Kamara and Richardson, but I wouldn't expect many starting snaps out of any of them in 2024. 

My hope is that, if the draft were to go down like this, that we'd go out and sign a veteran CB to secure the room for 2024 and then address CB and DT in the 2025 draft (hopefully with the 32nd pick :) ) 

(04-24-2024, 12:44 PM)Whatever Wrote: Pretty solid, overall.  I'm not a big Mims guy, but with this loaded T class, it's kind of a what flavor of ice cream do you prefer question.  Franklin fills a need and is an interesting prospect.  Personally, Sinnott and Carter in the 3rd is a round too early for both, but stealing Wright in the 5th makes up for that a bit.  Pretty good.

Yea, We have a lot of great options at 18, but none are without question marks of some kind. I liked Mims more than Latham in this mock draft, but I could see some preferring Latham due to experience. I could also see some people looking at an inexperienced OT and an OT that didn't test and looks sluggish on film and thinking "I'll take Johnny Newton" who was also there. The problem with that is then we'd probably have to draft an OT at 49, and Fisher was drafted right before our pick, so we'd have to take someone like Rosengarten. I don't know how comfortable we'd be going into the season with him as our first OT off the bench, so I gravitate towards OT in the first for that reason. 

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

Nicely done CJD. Got my favorite RT in Mims, I do like Franklin if he can clean up the drops, I like Ricky Pearsall better because of this
but would be happy with Franklin in the 2nd. Of course I love Ben Sinnott, great pick. Want a better run stopper than Carter probably
my only critique. Absolutely love Bortolini for us. Jaylen Wright is a speedster that can pass block and he can clean up his fumble issues
as Chase Brown had the same questions.

Boyd, Kamara and Richardson along with the BYU Punter is a nice way to round out the Draft. Great job CJD.

[CJD]

(04-24-2024, 02:54 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Nicely done CJD. Got my favorite RT in Mims, I do like Franklin if he can clean up the drops, I like Ricky Pearsall better because of this
but would be happy with Franklin in the 2nd. Of course I love Ben Sinnott, great pick. Want a better run stopper than Carter probably
my only critique. Absolutely love Bortolini for us. Jaylen Wright is a speedster that can pass block and he can clean up his fumble issues
as Chase Brown had the same questions.

Boyd, Kamara and Richardson along with the BYU Punter is a nice way to round out the Draft. Great job CJD.

Thanks Nate! Yea, At each round, I was underwhelmed by the DT options. I was planning on double dipping at DT with Carter as the pass rusher to develop and Jackson as the NT in the 4th, but he was plucked right ahead of me haha! Hopefully, the Bengals don't let that happen! I think Boyd in the 6th was a nice consolation prize though. Either way, I want to see us take two DTs in this draft; a pass rusher and a run stopper.

[SunsetBengal]

Well done, I would likely be happy with that if it were the actual draft. The only pick I really question would be Franklin at #49. 6'2" he shows nice length and good speed, but under 180# he struggles versus physical defenders and has trouble muscling for contested catches. In the AFCN, I'd prefer a more sturdy built WR, someone like Xavier Leggett maybe? At 6'1" 220# he's a true hard body that won't get pushed around and he has some wiggle and excitement factor that we all love.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(04-24-2024, 05:57 PM)CJD Wrote: Thanks Nate! Yea, At each round, I was underwhelmed by the DT options. I was planning on double dipping at DT with Carter as the pass rusher to develop and Jackson as the NT in the 4th, but he was plucked right ahead of me haha! Hopefully, the Bengals don't let that happen! I think Boyd in the 6th was a nice consolation prize though. Either way, I want to see us take two DTs in this draft; a pass rusher and a run stopper.

Yw, I don't necessarily think we have to take a pass rushing 3-tech because of the Rankins pickup but it is only a 2 year deal and BJ Hill is on 
the last year of his contract. We definitely need to take a NT unless we are just waiting on cuts or something which I doubt. There are lots of 
NT's to be found in the mid rounds this Draft.