A Hidden Positive with Higgins Out

[J24]

(11-10-2024, 12:08 PM)samhain Wrote: You just answered your own question, Nate.  You say that it was understood that he wasn't going to be paid by the organization.  Why is that acceptable?  I get that the team more or less sold that narrative to the fans for a few years.  Why?  

Jesse Bates was drafted in the Billy Price draft.  That's 2018 if I'm not mistaken.  He should have been extended around when Mixon was.  There were no other players worth paying on the roster at that point (from a long-term perspective).  Maybe Hubbard.  

Bates was a culture guy for Taylor.  He believed in the new staff while others like Dunlap defected and Geno retired.  He supported Taylor/Anarumo when almost nobody did.  

In other words, he was exactly the kind of player you reward with a contract extension.  Homegrown, semi-local (from Indiana, I think), transitional between two regimes, and capable of elite to near-elite play.  

Why would an organization tell it's fans and players to just accept that a guy like that is leaving?  Two reasons I can think of: 1. They really are so entrenched in the idea of "premium positions" that they can't wrap their heads around paying a safety big money.  2. They really had no idea how significant the impact of losing Bates would be, which is also unacceptable.

It's not crying over spilled milk if the overall cultural problem persists.  The milk will spill again.  Over and over.  With guards like Kevin Zeitler and Eric Steinbach.  With safeties like Bates.  They have a hierarchy of premium positions and it makes no sense anymore.  You pay known good players, period.  It's on them to understand their importance and impact.

Perfect, response!

[samhain]

(11-10-2024, 03:49 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: We’ve been over this before but Chase has had enough games now where he produced without Tee that you can’t really call it an outlier.

2024 vs BAL - 264 yards 3 TD’s
2023 vs ARZ - 192 yards 3 TD’s
2023 vs HOU - 124 yards 1 TD
2023 vs Pitt - 81 yards
2022 vs Pitt - 129 yards 1 TD (Tee left this game and only played 26% of the snaps)
2022 vs CLV - 119 yards 1 TD
2021 vs Pitt - 65 yards 2 TD’s
2021 vs JAX - 77 yards

At the end of the day does having Tee out there make things easier on both Joe and Ja’Marr? Ofc it does. But do they completely fall off a cliff every time they don’t have him? No. The 12 personnel stuff they were working into the offense this season was probably a preview of what the post-Tee era will look like.

Yeah, the dream of keeping the band together at a discount ended in the summer of 2023.  It was never realistic.  When people were talking about having 9, 1, and 5 in Cincinnati on long-term extensions, things were a lot more stable on defense.  We didn't know what we know now about the subpar drafting on defense in early rounds.  

I feel like a lot of the hope for keeping those 3 in stripes was based on maintaining at the very least a mediocre rest of the roster.  We no longer have that luxury.  The deficiencies have been revealed.  

Also, Tee's health is now much more of a trend than a fluke.  He's a great option when he's out there, but he's barely out there half the time at this point.  The offense, however continues to function at a high level.  

This isn't a crap on Tee thread.  It's more of a sigh of relief that this offense isn't going to wither on the vine when it no longer has Tee.  

Another point, when he actually leaves, the team is highly likely to replace him with something of significance.  Might be a draft pick, could be a free agent.  They might not be on Tee's level, but I don't think getting a guy that's better than Iosivas and sees the field more than Tee is that tough of an ask for this team.  He's not likely to leave without some kind of replacement.

[J24]

(11-10-2024, 03:49 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: We’ve been over this before but Chase has had enough games now where he produced without Tee that you can’t really call it an outlier.

2024 vs BAL - 264 yards 3 TD’s
2023 vs ARZ - 192 yards 3 TD’s
2023 vs HOU - 124 yards 1 TD
2023 vs Pitt - 81 yards
2022 vs Pitt - 129 yards 1 TD (Tee left this game and only played 26% of the snaps)
2022 vs CLV - 119 yards 1 TD
2021 vs Pitt - 65 yards 2 TD’s
2021 vs JAX - 77 yards

At the end of the day does having Tee out there make things easier on both Joe and Ja’Marr? Ofc it does. But do they completely fall off a cliff every time they don’t have him? No. The 12 personnel stuff they were working into the offense this season was probably a preview of what the post-Tee era will look like.

The difference in the past is that  we had a reliable WR in Boyd and a reliable RB in Mixon. Now we have Burton,  Isovais, and Brown.

Don't get me wrong, I do not think we need to sign Tee back, but we do need a reliable #2 WR. Or we need to improve the IOL to significantly improve the running game.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(11-10-2024, 11:01 AM)Sled21 Wrote: What he said is 100% correct. Joe often holds the ball too long in an effort to extend plays and doesn't care if he gets hit unless it's 3rd down and a sac takes us out of FG range. He said it himself. 

Again, 40 pressures and 13 QB hits in a single game is ridiculous, and NOT because Joe was holding onto the ball. It was a combination of putrid OL play, and play calling that hung him out to dry. They only ran it 13 times FFS despite having a lead most of the game. Maybe you know…actually change things up when you see your star QB being treated like a piñata. Just a thought.

(11-10-2024, 02:00 PM)J24 Wrote: The difference in the past is that  we had a reliable WR in Boyd and a reliable RB in Mixon. Now we have Burton,  Isovais, and Brown.

Don't get me wrong, I do not think we need to sign Tee back, but we do need a reliable #2 WR. Or we need to improve the IOL to significantly improve the running game.

Agree with all that. I would probably start with re-signing Gesicki to have a decent #3 pass catcher, and then draft Tee’s replacement early. 3T and WR are probably going to be their biggest needs going into the offseason. And yes there’s a lot more unfortunately.

[samhain]

(11-10-2024, 02:18 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Again, 40 pressures and 13 QB hits in a single game is ridiculous, and NOT because Joe was holding onto the ball. It was a combination of putrid OL play, and play calling that hung him out to dry. They only ran it 13 times FFS despite having a lead most of the game. Maybe you know actually change things up when you see your star QB being treated like a piñata. Idk just a thought.


Agree with all that. I would probably start with re-signing Gesicki to have a decent #3 pass catcher, and then draft Tee’s replacement early. 3T and WR are probably going to be their biggest needs going into the offseason. And yes there’s a lot more unfortunately.

Agree on Gesicki.  He's an effective replacement for a slot receiver.  On the other hand, slot receivers aren't exactly breaking the bank these days.  Would it be that tough to bring in a Tyler Boyd type FA?  I suppose it depends on the availability and market.  

[SunsetBengal]

(11-09-2024, 12:27 PM)samhain Wrote: There's no way to argue that this season hasn't sucked.  

Even so, there's one thing that I think has been made pretty clear:  This offense does not need Tee Higgins to thrive.  Burrow has gone off for 2 straight weeks without him.  He's proven that he most certainly is what we thought he was, ie a truly elite QB1 that can make an offense out of lesser parts when he has to.  Chase had 250 plus and 3 tds vs the Ravens without Tee on the field to divert attention.  Tee has been available for a total of 4 games. The offense, with the exception of the NE game, has largely looked fine..

Could they have used him vs Philly?  No doubt.  Is he a necessity?  IDK anymore.

I think his departure is a disguised blessing.  It will force them to utilize the TE more effectively (which they have), and also put more emphasis on the run game (ugh.)

To summarize: Burrow and Chase are enough without Tee.  This offense isn't going to turn into a pumpkin while he misses half the games for another team while making 27 mil per or so in 2025.

I agree that continuing to have Tee Higgins on the team is more of a luxury than a necessity. They do, however need a strong and reliable WR2, and I don't think that he's currently on the roster. Sure, Gesicki fills a great role as a pass catching TE, the the team still needs a solid WR2. Iosivas is a physically talented player, but he's obviously not ready to be placed in a full time starting role. Burton may have monstrous physical talent, but for whatever reason, his cornbread ain't quite done in the middle.

Letting Tee go to save salary is completely acceptable, but they still have to fill that role with at least a decent player. I don't think that you can count on the draft, as there are other spots that could benefit the team in a greater capacity with a 1-2 round pick. That leaves free agency. With the way CFB has been pumping good WRs into the league for the past decade and a half, there should be someone suitable on the market this offseason at a reasonable rate.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(11-10-2024, 12:08 PM)samhain Wrote: You just answered your own question, Nate.  You say that it was understood that he wasn't going to be paid by the organization.  Why is that acceptable?  I get that the team more or less sold that narrative to the fans for a few years.  Why?  

Jesse Bates was drafted in the Billy Price draft.  That's 2018 if I'm not mistaken.  He should have been extended around when Mixon was.  There were no other players worth paying on the roster at that point (from a long-term perspective).  Maybe Hubbard.  

Bates was a culture guy for Taylor.  He believed in the new staff while others like Dunlap defected and Geno retired.  He supported Taylor/Anarumo when almost nobody did.  

In other words, he was exactly the kind of player you reward with a contract extension.  Homegrown, semi-local (from Indiana, I think), transitional between two regimes, and capable of elite to near-elite play.  

Why would an organization tell it's fans and players to just accept that a guy like that is leaving?  Two reasons I can think of: 1. They really are so entrenched in the idea of "premium positions" that they can't wrap their heads around paying a safety big money.  2. They really had no idea how significant the impact of losing Bates would be, which is also unacceptable.

It's not crying over spilled milk if the overall cultural problem persists.  The milk will spill again.  Over and over.  With guards like Kevin Zeitler and Eric Steinbach.  With safeties like Bates.  They have a hierarchy of premium positions and it makes no sense anymore.  You pay known good players, period.  It's on them to understand their importance and impact.

Very rational post Sam. But we also have to remember that Bates wasn't near as good here as he has been in Atlanta and that during 
the franchise Tag he was a very poor tackler and showed poor effort. He did play great in the Playoffs leading up to our Super Bowl 
appearance but there were times for us when he wasn't near as good as he has been in Atlanta.

For this reason, I don't cry over that spilt milk and focus on solutions. CTB very well could be that solution, move him to Free Safety 
and start Jordan Battle at Strong.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(11-10-2024, 04:19 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: I don't think that you can count on the draft, as there are other spots that could benefit the team in a greater capacity with a 1-2 round pick. That leaves free agency. With the way CFB has been pumping good WRs into the league for the past decade and a half, there should be someone suitable on the market this offseason at a reasonable rate.

The problem with that is I think most of us trust them way more with a 1st/2nd round pick at WR than some of the other big needs like DT and OG. Duke’s track record at drafting trenches early is horrendous. John Ross and Jerome Simpson are really the only misses he’s had at WR in the first couple rounds.