Fatal flaw with this team

[*bengalfan74*]

We don't get anywhere near enough long term (at least two 4 year contracts) success out of our top draft picks. The guys you draft to fill holes and expect to be at least above average contributors for a good while.

I decided to just start with the ML era to now, Recent history. And I'm just doing top 2 round picks, top 64.

2003
*** C. Palmer QB 8 seasons, we all know that story
E. Steinbach OG 4 seasons wouldn't pay top money to IOL.

2004
C Perry RB 4 seasons, injuries
K. Ratliff CB 4 seasons meh gone + some fill in roles later on 09/10
M. Williams S 4 seasons, was on fire to start then injuries flamed him out.

2005
D. Pollack LB 1+ seasons horrible neck injury
O. Thurman LB 3 seasons, started off as a possible true game changer. Drugs and alcohol problems ended career

2006
J. Joseph CB 5 seasons, Bengals wouldn't pay top CB money - gone
*** A. Whitworth LT 11 seasons as top of the line LT, still ended on sour note here

2007
*** L. Hall CB 9 seasons, good career here
K. Irons RB Blew out ACL in first pre season game, never recovered

2008
K. Rivers LB 4 seasons started out looking good, then Ward broke his jaw (dirty) never recovered his mo jo
J. Simpson WR 4 seasons drug issues cropped up Will always put "the flip" in top 10 plays though

2009
*** A. Smith RT 7 seasons then came back later good pick
*** R Maualuga LB 8 seasons, his coverage skills were non-existent but overall ok contributor so I'll give him the asterisk's

2010
J. Gresham TE 5 seasons and was a good not great TE not retained
*** C. Dunlap DE 11 season very good DE not great left with bad blood

2011
*** AJ Green WR 10 seasons top level pick, again left under questionable circumstances/bad blood
*** A. Dalton QB 9 seasons quality QB, again many feel Bengals did him dirty with departure

2012

*** D. Kirkpatrick CB 8 seasons good contributor
K. Zeitler RG 5 seasons, really good guard, bengals wouldn't pay top money - gone
D. Still couple seasons sad story

2013
T. Eifert TE 7 seasons but injury plagued issues wrecked career
***G. Bernard RB 7 seasons good pick
M. Hunt DE 4 seasons waste of a top pick

2014
*** D. Dennard CB 6 seasons good value
J. Hill RB 4 seasons no comment

2015
C. Ogbuehi OT 4 seasons - garbage pick
J. Fisher OT/G 4 seasons - health issues ended career. Just an awful draft

2016
W. Jackson III 5 seasons and gone
*** T. Boyd WR 8 seasons quality pick maybe should have kept

2017
J. Ross WR 4 seasons waste of a pick
*** J. Mixon 7 seasons decent production

2018
B. Price C 3 seasons waste of a pick
J. Bates S 5 seasons, good pick, wouldn't pay let go

2019
J. Williams OT 5 seasons gone, meh contributor
D. Sample TE 6 seasons thus far questionable contributor?? carrer stats thus far - 89 receptions, 672 yards, 4 TD's was he really a 2nd round pick?

2020
*** J. Burrow QB woot
T. Higgins WR good pick but....

2021
J. Chase WR great pick
J. Carman OT - waste of a pick

2022
D. Hill S/CB injuries ???
C.T. Britt started out showing much promise but has hit the wall - HARD who knows??

2023
M. Murphy DE hasn't moved needle much
DJ Turner CB lets hope


39 total top picks (64 and above) 14 we've got any long term success from. That's of course not figuring what the long term success of recent picks in. But there's some serious doubt there for sure.

I realize the Bengals had no control over Pollack breaking his neck or K. Irons blowing knee out, or T. Eifert just not having a NFL ready body. But we did have control over retaining E. Steinbach and K. Zeitler but won't pay top money to IOL. We did have control over resigning J. Bates. Many wasted picks Hunt, Hill, Ogbuehi, Fisher, Ross, Price, Williams.

But however you want to chop it up? This team doesn't in general get good returns from top level picks. You can't fail at this rate and get to the final prize.

[SunsetBengal]

Have the Bengals really done that poorly, or we just perceive it as such, since we focus so much of our attention and hopes for the team on the draft? I wonder what those success/bust rates look like compared to the NFL averages?

[*bengalfan74*]

(11-26-2024, 01:02 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Have the Bengals really done that poorly, or we just perceive it as such, since we focus so much of our attention and hopes for the team on the draft? I wonder what those success/bust rates look like compared to the NFL averages?

I wondered the same thing while compiling this to be honest. And to be fair we all know the draft is a crap shoot. The best of teams with the best GM's, scouting dept's and so on miss, a good bit I'm sure. But i doubt they fail to retain, cheap out, and so on at the rate we do. I could be wrong.

I feel we've reached in the draft, Sample cough Sample for example more than others. To be fair Sample has been a good blocking TE for us. But as a pass catcher just not 2nd round value.

The one constant during this has been the...... drum roll please...... Brown family running the show.

[SladeX]

We need to excel here.
I am not going to be satisfied if we are middle of the pack or a little above average. Great scouting should be our MO going forward.
We need robust scouting.

[*bengalfan74*]

I thought when the changes came after hiring ZT, actually getting some top shelf free agents, paying Joe Burrow, ring of honor, naming rights to stadium and so on that finally we were stepping out of 1963 MB mode of operation.

I'm now concerned that was just window dressing and it's right back to same ole "old school ways" again. And it doesn't work in the modern NFL, at all.

[Truck_1_0_1_]

(11-26-2024, 01:27 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: I thought when the changes came after hiring ZT, actually getting some top shelf free agents, paying Joe Burrow, ring of honor, naming rights to stadium and so on that finally we were stepping out of 1963 MB mode of operation.

I'm now concerned that was just window dressing and it's right back to same ole "old school ways" again. And it doesn't work in the modern NFL, at all.

I don't think it's window dressing at all: they rode the wave of success and this is the first big bump in the road: they now have to pull up their socks and get back to riding the wave of success and I think they'll do what needs to be done (not what fans want or perceive, but what NEEDS to be done).

We'll know a year from now (or less, evidently) if they indeed do the right things.

[*bengalfan74*]

(11-26-2024, 01:43 PM)Truck_1_0_1_ Wrote: I don't think it's window dressing at all: they rode the wave of success and this is the first big bump in the road: they now have to pull up their socks and get back to riding the wave of success and I think they'll do what needs to be done (not what fans want or perceive, but what NEEDS to be done).

We'll know a year from now (or less, evidently) if they indeed do the right things.

I sure hope they do truck, praying they do. But for now it sure seems they're leaning awful hard towards "same ole story, same old song and dance"

Because before you know it Joe Burrow isn't going to be so young anymore.

[*ochocincos*]

What this tells me...

1) Bengals don't value paying IOL top dollar and while willing to draft an IOL early, they haven't been willing to pay them after rookie contract. I want it to be an investment, but I also hate that the Bengals may not likely extend if they perform near the top of the crop.

2) RB hasn't been a first round pick since before Carson Palmer. I don't think we see a RB taken in 1st round, although there were rumors Bengals had Gibbs targeted before he got taken.

3) WR is a safe bet to be taken early, and they've had pretty good success at that position in Rds 1-2. This feels like a likely position target if Higgins walks. It's also a costly position in FA for the good ones.

4) CB has been taken a lot, but it's been hit or miss. Another position I could see as likely if they aren't happy with CTB, Turner, and Hill. Also a costly position in FA for the good ones.

5) DL they have not had much success on early at all. The last one of worth was Dunlap. I can see them wanting to go DL early though with all the problems they've been having, but they need to not get a project.

6) Safety they haven't taken much at all but they have had success there (at least somewhat).

As a whole, I feel like the "safest" positions for them will be WR and DB.
I'm always a fan of drafting trenches as well, but they have to actually hit on them.
Personally, I think fans will be skeptical of OL/DL performing well as long as Pollack and Hobby are the positional coaches.
If either or both of them are gone, I can see fans being excited for new OL/DL guys added.

[*bengalfan74*]

(11-26-2024, 01:49 PM)ochocincos Wrote: What this tells me...

1) Bengals don't value paying IOL top dollar and while willing to draft an IOL early, they haven't been willing to pay them after rookie contract. I want it to be an investment, but I also hate that the Bengals may not likely extend if they perform near the top of the crop.

2) RB hasn't been a first round pick since before Carson Palmer. I don't think we see a RB taken in 1st round, although there were rumors Bengals had Gibbs targeted before he got taken.

3) WR is a safe bet to be taken early, and they've had pretty good success at that position in Rds 1-2. This feels like a likely position target if Higgins walks. It's also a costly position in FA for the good ones.

4) CB has been taken a lot, but it's been hit or miss. Another position I could see as likely if they aren't happy with CTB, Turner, and Hill. Also a costly position in FA for the good ones.

5) DL they have not had much success on early at all. The last one of worth was Dunlap. I can see them wanting to go DL early though with all the problems they've been having, but they need to not get a project.

6) Safety they haven't taken much at all but they have had success there (at least somewhat).

As a whole, I feel like the "safest" positions for them will be WR and DB.
I'm always a fan of drafting trenches as well, but they have to actually hit on them.
Personally, I think fans will be skeptical of OL/DL performing well as long as Pollack and Hobby are the positional coaches.
If either or both of them are gone, I can see fans being excited for new OL/DL guys added.

Agree

And I'll say it again, LOL 

Our downfall is the trenches. We have to get way better up front on both sides of the ball. And we need to many players to fix this team with one draft. Free agency is a must IMHO.

[*Go Cards*]

Drafting has to improve per having good/great players on rookie contracts mixed with star veterans is the NFL recipe for success these days.

[Hammer]

(11-26-2024, 12:15 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: We don't get anywhere near enough long term (at least two 4 year contracts) success out of our top draft picks. The guys you draft to fill holes and expect to be at least above average contributors for a good while.

I decided to just start with the ML era to now, Recent history. And I'm just doing top 2 round picks, top 64.

2003
*** C. Palmer QB 8 seasons, we all know that story
E. Steinbach OG 4 seasons wouldn't pay top money to IOL.

2004
C Perry RB 4 seasons, injuries
K. Ratliff CB 4 seasons meh gone + some fill in roles later on 09/10
M. Williams S 4 seasons, was on fire to start then injuries flamed him out.

2005
D. Pollack LB 1+ seasons horrible neck injury
O. Thurman LB 3 seasons, started off as a possible true game changer. Drugs and alcohol problems ended career

2006
J. Joseph CB 5 seasons, Bengals wouldn't pay top CB money - gone
*** A. Whitworth LT 11 seasons as top of the line LT, still ended on sour note here

2007
*** L. Hall CB 9 seasons, good career here
K. Irons RB Blew out ACL in first pre season game, never recovered

2008
K. Rivers LB 4 seasons started out looking good, then Ward broke his jaw (dirty) never recovered his mo jo
J. Simpson WR 4 seasons drug issues cropped up Will always put "the flip" in top 10 plays though

2009
*** A. Smith RT 7 seasons then came back later good pick
*** R Maualuga LB 8 seasons, his coverage skills were non-existent but overall ok contributor so I'll give him the asterisk's

2010
J. Gresham TE 5 seasons and was a good not great TE not retained
*** C. Dunlap DE 11 season very good DE not great left with bad blood

2011
*** AJ Green WR 10 seasons top level pick, again left under questionable circumstances/bad blood
*** A. Dalton QB 9 seasons quality QB, again many feel Bengals did him dirty with departure

2012

*** D. Kirkpatrick CB 8 seasons good contributor
K. Zeitler RG 5 seasons, really good guard, bengals wouldn't pay top money - gone
D. Still couple seasons sad story

2013
T. Eifert TE 7 seasons but injury plagued issues wrecked career
***G. Bernard RB 7 seasons good pick
M. Hunt DE 4 seasons waste of a top pick

2014
*** D. Dennard CB 6 seasons good value
J. Hill RB 4 seasons no comment

2015
C. Ogbuehi OT 4 seasons - garbage pick
J. Fisher OT/G 4 seasons - health issues ended career. Just an awful draft

2016
W. Jackson III 5 seasons and gone
*** T. Boyd WR 8 seasons quality pick maybe should have kept

2017
J. Ross WR 4 seasons waste of a pick
*** J. Mixon 7 seasons decent production

2018
B. Price C 3 seasons waste of a pick
J. Bates S 5 seasons, good pick, wouldn't pay let go

2019
J. Williams OT 5 seasons gone, meh contributor
D. Sample TE 6 seasons thus far questionable contributor?? carrer stats thus far - 89 receptions, 672 yards, 4 TD's was he really a 2nd round pick?

2020
*** J. Burrow QB woot
T. Higgins WR good pick but....

2021
J. Chase WR great pick
J. Carman OT - waste of a pick

2022
D. Hill S/CB injuries ???
C.T. Britt started out showing much promise but has hit the wall - HARD who knows??

2023
M. Murphy DE hasn't moved needle much
DJ Turner CB lets hope


39 total top picks (64 and above) 14 we've got any long term success from. That's of course not figuring what the long term success of recent picks in. But there's some serious doubt there for sure.

I realize the Bengals had no control over Pollack breaking his neck or K. Irons blowing knee out, or T. Eifert just not having a NFL ready body. But we did have control over retaining E. Steinbach and K. Zeitler but won't pay top money to IOL. We did have control over resigning J. Bates. Many wasted picks Hunt, Hill, Ogbuehi, Fisher, Ross, Price, Williams.

But however you want to chop it up? This team doesn't in general get good returns from top level picks. You can't fail at this rate and get to the final prize.

No issues with your takes until you mentioned Andy Dalton as a Quality QB. Since he departed the Bengals what team has he shown quality, long term quality?? He wasn’t a quality QB with the Bengals…he was a backup placed in the starting position with talent all around him. What long term quality has he produced as a starter since leaving the Bengals?? ZERO! He can only have occasional good games and that’s because he’s a backup QB!

[Nicomo Cosca]

(11-26-2024, 10:48 PM)Hammer Wrote: No issues with your takes until you mentioned Andy Dalton as a Quality QB. Since he departed the Bengals what team has he shown quality, long term quality?? He wasn’t a quality QB with the Bengals…he was a backup placed in the starting position with talent all around him. What long term quality has he produced as a starter since leaving the Bengals?? ZERO! He can only have occasional good games and that’s because he’s a backup QB!

I often got labeled an Andy hater by members of the Dalton Gang but even I will say that this take is crazy. He was not a backup when he was in his prime. That’s ridiculous.

[*jason*]

(11-26-2024, 01:46 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: I sure hope they do truck, praying they do. But for now it sure seems they're leaning awful hard towards "same ole story, same old song and dance"

Because before you know it Joe Burrow isn't going to be so young anymore.

Also don't think Joe will be the good soldier forever. Nearly everyone leaves on bad terms, and if it happens for Joe nobody will be siding with the team as many of us did when Palmer left. That will be catastrophic for the Cincinnati Bengals organization should it happen. Hopefully they figure this shit out.