In defense of Lou's 21 and 22

[Frank Booth]

You see a lot of people bashing Lou because his 2 best seasons, 21 and 22, "werent even all that good".

Yet I never see anyone mention that these 2 seasons were Jessie Bates' worst 2 years in the league. He even went on record saying his head wasnt into it because of his contract situation.

So those 2 years in the regular season, the Bengals got a compromised Bates. Bates played around or just below league average those 2 seasons.

And in those 2 seasons, the Bengals had the 17th best scoring defense, and the 6th best scoring defense. May I remind you that this was with Bates playing well below his standard.

Look at how great Bates has been outside of 21 and 22. He is an all pro caliber Free safety. This isnt even a question.

The 21 and 22 playoffs got those all pro version of Bates. Bates absolutely turned it on come the postseason. That defense turned into a juggernaut.

Now lets go back, people are bashing Lou's 2 best seasons as being sort of average...

How do those 21 and 22 defenses look with Bates playing uncompromised? Pretty damn good. I'd venture to say the Bengals defense wouldve been considered elite in 2022, and the 21 defense would flat out just be good instead of "little below average".

Keeping these facts in mind, the whole argument about the "underwhelming-ness" of Lou's best years sort of go out the window. And how does the narrative around Lou change if Bates wasnt playing it safe because of his contract problems those 2 years...

My final thoughts: I really dont know if this is a Lou issue. Now has he adapted with these downgrades? Idk. But I truly do think that it could be a long term mistake by firing him after this year. Thats just me though. It's a question that I cant even truly figure out. I get youre supposed to fire guys after horrid performances like this, but Im really not so sure.

[wadirumm]

(6 hours ago)Frank Booth Wrote: You see a lot of people bashing Lou because his 2 best seasons, 21 and 22, "werent even all that good".

Yet I never see anyone mention that these 2 seasons were Jessie Bates' worst 2 years in the league. He even went on record saying his head wasnt into it because of his contract situation.

So those 2 years in the regular season, the Bengals got a compromised Bates. Bates played around or just below league average those 2 seasons.

And in those 2 seasons, the Bengals had the 17th best scoring defense, and the 6th best scoring defense. May I remind you that this was with Bates playing well below his standard.

Look at how great Bates has been outside of 21 and 22. He is an all pro caliber Free safety. This isnt even a question.

The 21 and 22 playoffs got those all pro version of Bates. Bates absolutely turned it on come the postseason. That defense turned into a juggernaut.

Now lets go back, people are bashing Lou's 2 best seasons as being sort of average...

How do those 21 and 22 defenses look with Bates playing uncompromised? Pretty damn good. I'd venture to say the Bengals defense wouldve been considered elite in 2022, and the 21 defense would flat out just be good instead of "little below average".

Keeping these facts in mind, the whole argument about the "underwhelming-ness" of Lou's best years sort of go out the window. And how does the narrative around Lou change if Bates wasnt playing it safe because of his contract problems those 2 years...

My final thoughts: I really dont know if this is a Lou issue. Now has he adapted with these downgrades? Idk. But I truly do think that it could be a long term mistake by firing him after this year. Thats just me though. It's a question that I cant even truly figure out. I get youre supposed to fire guys after horrid performances like this, but Im really not so sure.

Most of us see it as an FO/Tobin/MB issue which it is. But ownership won't take responsibility.  Not signing Bates mattered; poor drafting and development mattered. I don't know how you fix this except that MB "sees the light", fires Tobin, hires Bellichek as GM.  

[WeezyBengal]

This seems like reaching to me. Im not even sure what you are trying to say. That Lou's defense in 2021 and 2022 were better than what it was because Bates was playing poorly?

What are you using to base Bates' play as "compromised"? He graded at a 68 and 72 those years, which is still pretty good. Far better than what we have now.

Those teams also had Chido, Reader, and Vonn Bell playing at a high level. It was a DRASTICALLY different defense with better players than it is now...and it was STILL average. Yards per game, points per game, etc. will all tell you that.

I'd argue that those 2021 and 2022 defenses were EXTREMELY lucky. They had a bend don't break style and ended up stopping teams in the red zone WAY more often than the should have. They were also in the top 1/3 of the league in takeaways as well, a very volatile/luck based stat.

Lou has never had an extremely good defense. They did have a nice run in the playoffs in 2021, but other than that it's never been "great".

Yes, the FO needs to be held accountable for the players they brought in, but so does Lou and these positional coaches. I just really don't know how anyone can back him at this point. His defense has been a disaster for two straight years, they've drafted poor defensive players, coached them up and developed them poorly, etc. 

It's time to move on. 

[Frank Booth]

(5 hours ago)WeezyBengal Wrote: This seems like reaching to me. Im not even sure what you are trying to say. That Lou's defense in 2021 and 2022 were better than what it was because Bates was playing poorly?

What are you using to base Bates' play as "compromised"? He graded at a 68 and 72 those years, which is still pretty good. Far better than what we have now.

Those teams also had Chido, Reader, and Vonn Bell playing at a high level. It was a DRASTICALLY different defense with better players than it is now...and it was STILL average. Yards per game, points per game, etc. will all tell you that.

I'd argue that those 2021 and 2022 defenses were EXTREMELY lucky. They had a bend don't break style and ended up stopping teams in the red zone WAY more often than the should have. They were also in the top 1/3 of the league in takeaways as well, a very volatile/luck based stat.

Lou has never had an extremely good defense. They did have a nice run in the playoffs in 2021, but other than that it's never been "great".

Yes, the FO needs to be held accountable for the players they brought in, but so does Lou and these positional coaches. I just really don't know how anyone can back him at this point. His defense has been a disaster for two straight years, they've drafted poor defensive players, coached them up and developed them poorly, etc. 

It's time to move on. 

yea Im saying those were years Bates played below his standards. We arent dumping on Lou for having a lucky 21 and 22 if Bates actually played like Bates during the regular season. Which would change a good portion of the narrative around him. It would certainly change your narrative about those defenses. Thats all im saying

[125250]

When everyone thought the defense was good it was turnovers. Some were their doing and some luck.

[samhain]

A forgotten key in the 21 defense: Ogunjobi. He's not a cornerstone like Reader or Bates, but he added a dimension that they've never really replaced.

[*Synric*]

It's not about how pff graded Bates it's what having Bates allowed the team to do on defense in underneath coverage. It's not a coincidence that those are Bell, Wilson, and Pratts best pff coverage years.

[Destro]

They were good at having flashes of brilliance, as both a unit and individual players. Besides Trey, no one has sustained that or remained on this team. A Derek Carr interception, a Tyler Huntley goal line fumble return TD, etc. erased any other bad things that happened. A young version of last second Evan got us over. Straddled the line, now we are off the fence into the pile of dog poop.

[Frank Booth]

(4 hours ago)Synric Wrote: It's not about how pff graded Bates it's what having Bates allowed the team to do on defense in underneath coverage. It's not a coincidence that those are Bell, Wilson, and Pratts best pff coverage years.

sure I get that, but Bates did admit to not playing his best those years. and yea, his pff grades reflect that. Those 2 years stick out. So if Bates actually played like Bates has the other years in his career(2018-2020 and 23-24), a lot of people who want Lou gone wouldnt be so quick to call his 21 and 22 defenses "lucky". Those defenses were still pretty good even with their best player underperforming all season. 

Like if Bates was currently playing like he did in 21 and 22, the falcons would be beneath the bucs

[SunsetBengal]

Well, the Bates argument is a compelling one, but don't get lost on the idea that Bell was allowed to walk after the '22 season as well. Yes, I know that Bell is back with the Bengals this year, and is a mere cardboard cutout of his former self. However that does not change the fact that Bell was at the top of his game in '21 and '22. The defense went from having arguably one of the best Safety tandems in the league to basically scrubs, of course that's going to make a significant difference.

The question must be, why were the Bengals relying on scrubs and rookies to take over for a fantastic tandem? Why wasn't there at least one experienced Safety already groomed to assume a role?

Safety is just but one position, the same question can be asked of multiple positions on this team. My answer would be that either all of the guys they are adding to the team are lame and undevelopable, the coaching is incapable of bringing young talent up and elevating them to be all they can be, or maybe a little of both?

Either way, with Lou it's more than just the Safety position. What about all of the young DL and Edge guys that have arrived since he's been around? Why are none of those guys household names yet? Some might argue that Marion Hobby isn't getting his job done, and I agree. But why isn't Lou putting a foot in Marion's ass demanding better development of the talent that he's been handed?

[Frank Booth]

(4 hours ago)Destro Wrote: They were good at having flashes of brilliance, as both a unit and individual players. Besides Trey, no one has sustained that or remained on this team. A Derek Carr interception, a Tyler Huntley goal line fumble return TD, etc. erased any other bad things that happened. A young version of last second Evan got us over. Straddled the line, now we are off the fence into the pile of dog poop.

the offense also vastly underperformed those 2 games, wouldnt you agree? Especially the raiders one. The defense held the raiders to 19 points, Im not calling that lucky. They destroyed the titans, always hold the chiefs in check, and they killed buffalo's offense. I hate when people call it lucky or flukey. Its not true, its cope

[J24]

(4 hours ago)samhain Wrote: A forgotten key in the 21 defense: Ogunjobi.  He's not a cornerstone like Reader or Bates, but he added a dimension that they've never really replaced.

Interesting, that you bring this up, because the Defense(according to PFF) actually got better when Larry went down. I wonder if him shooting gaps got the defense out of wack and caused mass lost gap control.

[Frank Booth]

(4 hours ago)J24 Wrote: Interesting, that you bring this up, because the Defense(according to PFF) actually got better when Larry went down. I wonder if him shooting gaps got the defense out of wack and caused mass lost gap control.

the 21 team was pretty good at sacking the QB, and Larry played a big part in that

[WeezyBengal]

(4 hours ago)Synric Wrote: It's not about how pff graded Bates it's what having Bates allowed the team to do on defense in underneath coverage. It's not a coincidence that those are Bell, Wilson, and Pratts best pff coverage years

Yep. Everything that Bates was doing was not tangible. 

[*jason*]

Even if we go ahead and give Lou a ton of credit for those two years, his units have been sorry for four outta the six years he's been here... Kick rocks Lou.

[Nicomo Cosca]

Bates turned it on in the playoffs those years though. Especially 21. He was our highest graded player during the SB run.

[SunsetBengal]

(2 hours ago)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Bates turned it on in the playoffs those years though. Especially 21. He was our highest graded player during the SB run.

Yeah, that's been long established. However, as I touched on earlier, all of Anarumo's failures cannot be pinned on the loss of one player. He had the ability to prepare for the absence before it happened, but was unable to develop any suitable replacement.

[Destro]

(4 hours ago)Frank Booth Wrote: the offense also vastly underperformed those 2 games, wouldnt you agree? Especially the raiders one. The defense held the raiders to 19 points, Im not calling that lucky. They destroyed the titans, always hold the chiefs in check, and they killed buffalo's offense. I hate when people call it lucky or flukey. Its not true, its cope

Yup I surely agree. Sometimes one side nails out the other. Needed the defense to shine in our past success. Now, we need the defense only to not be dog poop, and it can’t be. Yeah, it wasn’t luck. It was talent and scheme. I just wasn’t good in the long term. Bend, not break and have the offense make a mistake. It all has come crashing down now.