Not My Idea-But It Should Be Discussed: What is Hendrickson worth in trade?

[samhain]

I was listening to Malik Wright yesterday.  He had, I think Zim Whodey (another Bengals podcast guy) on to discuss the offseason and future.  The guest made an incredibly hot-take suggestion:

The Bengals should extend Tee and trade Trey Hendrickson for draft capital.  

This, on it's face sounds totally insane.  Why trade the only undeniably good defender on the roster?  How can they carry a top dollar qb along with 2 expensive receivers?  

To be honest, they probably can't.  However, Trey is about to be 30, I believe.  Tee is 25.  How good will Trey be in the final year of his deal?  Both create needs if they leave.  Maybe the team needs to focus less on who plays what position and more on which players are actually good enough to warrant extending.  What player do we have that's honestly better than Tee?  

To me, this is a question of what you get for Trey.  If you can squeeze a first out of someone to make him their Von Miller a-la-the Rams, then maybe.  With Tee locked up, they could allow a new DC to pick 2 first rounders to anchor his defense, along with an early 2nd.  Young, high end talent that would be hungry.  A group that could grow together.  Maybe they whiff.  Then again, maybe they draft the backbone of a new defense for years to come, like the Bucs did with Sapp, Brooks, and Lynch (lol I know).

Add to that the fact that they'd have a little money left to bring in a vet or two (after cutting almost anyone making any real money) to set the tone, and you have a less gross proposition.  

Not sure I love it just due to the money that would be tied up on offense, but I don't completely hate it.  The fly in the ointment is the front office we have and their questionable capabilities.

[NotBigzo]

Tell me how the last time the Bengles let an "aging tackle" walk out the door worked out for them.

Teddy bear is a defensive end, but I hope you get my point, nonetheless.

Even if he does decline, we don't have anything close to adequate replacement for him. Trading him is a terrible idea.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(Yesterday, 05:56 PM)samhain Wrote: I was listening to Malik Wright yesterday.  He had, I think Zim Whodey (another Bengals podcast guy) on to discuss the offseason and future.  The guest made an incredibly hot-take suggestion:

The Bengals should extend Tee and trade Trey Hendrickson for draft capital.  

This, on it's face sounds totally insane.  Why trade the only undeniably good defender on the roster?  How can they carry a top dollar qb along with 2 expensive receivers?  

To be honest, they probably can't.  However, Trey is about to be 30, I believe.  Tee is 25.  How good will Trey be in the final year of his deal?  Both create needs if they leave.  Maybe the team needs to focus less on who plays what position and more on which players are actually good enough to warrant extending.  What player do we have that's honestly better than Tee?  

To me, this is a question of what you get for Trey.  If you can squeeze a first out of someone to make him their Von Miller a-la-the Rams, then maybe.  With Tee locked up, they could allow a new DC to pick 2 first rounders to anchor his defense, along with an early 2nd.  Young, high end talent that would be hungry.  A group that could grow together.  Maybe they whiff.  Then again, maybe they draft the backbone of a new defense for years to come, like the Bucs did with Sapp, Brooks, and Lynch (lol I know).

Add to that the fact that they'd have a little money left to bring in a vet or two (after cutting almost anyone making any real money) to set the tone, and you have a less gross proposition.  

Not sure I love it just due to the money that would be tied up on offense, but I don't completely hate it.  The fly in the ointment is the front office we have and their questionable capabilities.

It is a nice conversation that makes me hope even more that Trey continues to have a record Sack year here for the rest of the season.

Highly doubt this happens (the trade) and I don't trust Tee to stay healthy anyways, but he is by far our best WR besides Chase and keeps us 
dangerous on Offense when he can play and is an outstanding person and should be cheaper to keep after this season than if he stayed healthy.

We are going to have to extend Trey anyways and that could hurt us as well. Eventually a young pass rusher will have to step up and getting
more early round draft picks and a new DL coach should help these odds big time.

[Hammerstripes]

To answer the question - I would think you could get a 2nd at the most. But more than likely a 3rd.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(Yesterday, 06:19 PM)Hammerstripes Wrote: To answer the question - I would think you could get a 2nd at the most.  But more than likely a 3rd.

Eh, I think we can get more than that, especially if he gets 17 plus sacks this year again....

[Hammerstripes]

(Yesterday, 06:25 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Eh, I think we can get more than that, especially if he gets 17 plus sacks this year again....

I'm trying to think of the last 30 year + guy that got high comp in a draft day trade.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(Yesterday, 05:58 PM)NotBigzo Wrote: Trading him is a terrible idea.

It won't make the team better, but it might happen anyway.

There's nearly zero chance that Hendrickson plays 2025 under his current contract. He already asked for a trade last offseason and now he's leading the NFL in sacks after a 17.5 sack season. He will never have more leverage than he will this offseason and it's his last opportunity for a huge payday. 

Will the Bengals be willing to give him a 3yr/$75m (~$45m guaranteed at signing) contract extension putting him under contract for his age 32, 33, and 34 seasons? Keep in mind that the Bengals haven't had a non-STer who was in an age 32+ season on their week1 roster since Riley Reiff in 2021.... and also this coming offseason Ja'Marr Chase is about to get something like 4yr/$140m with $90m guaranteed at signing.

I don't see the Bengals paying Hendrickson what he's worth/wants/deserves, so I see him demanding a trade again and this time being much more stout in his demands. I expect this to be his last season as a Bengal.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(Yesterday, 06:26 PM)Hammerstripes Wrote: I'm trying to think of the last 30 year + guy that got high comp in a draft day trade.

I'm sure there's more, but off the top of my head...

Davante Adams was in his age 30 season when he went for a 1st and a 2nd in 2022.

It was mid-season, but Von Miller in 2021 was in his age 32 season (and an impending FA) when he got traded to the Rams for a 2nd and 3rd and had been a couple years removed from being the properly dominant Von Miller.

[Hammerstripes]

(Yesterday, 06:34 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: I'm sure there's more, but off the top of my head...

Davante Adams was in his age 30 season when he went for a 1st and a 2nd in 2022.

It was mid-season, but Von Miller in 2021 was in his age 32 season (and an impending FA) when he got traded to the Rams for a 2nd and 3rd and had been a couple years removed from being the properly dominant Von Miller.

Probably should have phrased it better - but a defensive lineman.  Von Miller is the closest, but as you said that was during the middle of the season and a complete ring move for the Rams.

I would guess a 2nd or a 3rd would be the most we would get.

[Bengalfan4life27c]

Trade Tre Franchise and Trade Tee as well who cares if he likes it someone will give us a early 3rd maybe even late 2nd. Replace everyone on defense start over. FA needs to be 2 G C and 2 DE and a quality S draft a First round DT and RB 2nd round DE and CB with draft capital and backloading an extension for Chase this is certainly possible

[*ochocincos*]

Hendrickson turns 30 on Thursday, Dec 5.

Looking back at some DL trades, Khalil Mack was traded to Bears for a couple 1st rounders, a 2nd rounder, a 3rd rounder, and a couple late rounders. However, Mack was 27 years old.
Richard Seymour was 29 years old when traded to OAK for a 1st rounder.

Bengals might be able to get a 1st rounder and mid-late rounder for Hendrickson, but I can't see a team willing to give more than that, especially with Hendrickson only under contract for 2025 and will be 31 years old next December.

IMO though Hendrickson is the only truly good pass rusher the Bengals have brought in or drafted in the Taylor era.
If you thought the pass rush was bad now, it would likely be nonexistent without Hendrickson.
Anarumo is not creative enough with defensive playcalling to turn water into wine when it comes to rushing the passer.

Finding a WR2 is much easier than finding a double-digit sack artist.
But Higgins would likely be a Bengal for 3-4 more years whereas Hendrickson maybe only 1 more year after 2025.

[FormerlyBengalRugby]

I would rather see the Bengals invest in Trey, who is producing at a high level on a defense that is doing him no favors, than in Tee Higgins, who cannot stay healthy and is playing in an area of the team where there is an embarrassment of riches.

Keep Trey, trade Tee, get new coaches.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(Yesterday, 06:42 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Hendrickson turns 30 on Thursday, Dec 5.

Looking back at some DL trades, Khalil Mack was traded to Bears for a couple 1st rounders, a 2nd rounder, a 3rd rounder, and a couple late rounders. However, Mack was 27 years old.
Richard Seymour was 29 years old when traded to OAK for a 1st rounder.

Bengals might be able to get a 1st rounder and mid-late rounder for Hendrickson, but I can't see a team willing to give more than that, especially with Hendrickson only under contract for 2025 and will be 31 years old next December.

IMO though Hendrickson is the only truly good pass rusher the Bengals have brought in or drafted in the Taylor era.
If you thought the pass rush was bad now, it would likely be nonexistent without Hendrickson.
Anarumo is not creative enough with defensive playcalling to turn water into wine when it comes to rushing the passer.

Finding a WR2 is much easier than finding a double-digit sack artist.
But Higgins would likely be a Bengal for 3-4 more years whereas Hendrickson maybe only 1 more year after 2025.

I thought a late 1st and a mid round pick would be about right for Trey myself especially if he continues to have a great season sack wise.

(Yesterday, 06:50 PM)FormerlyBengalRugby Wrote: I would rather see the Bengals invest in Trey, who is producing at a high level on a defense that is doing him no favors, than in Tee Higgins, who cannot stay healthy and is playing in an area of the team where there is an embarrassment of riches.

Keep Trey, trade Tee, get new coaches.

I completely agree Rugby. These are my exact thoughts, just entertaining Samhain's thoughts on a Trey trade.

[J24]

Late 2nd/early 3rd + late 3rd/early 4th

[*ochocincos*]

(Yesterday, 06:50 PM)FormerlyBengalRugby Wrote: I would rather see the Bengals invest in Trey, who is producing at a high level on a defense that is doing him no favors, than in Tee Higgins, who cannot stay healthy and is playing in an area of the team where there is an embarrassment of riches.

Keep Trey, trade Tee, get new coaches.

This Bengals staff/FO cares too much about having guys in their mid-20's than having guys that can flat-out produce.

Higgins is great...when healthy.
He's missed 10 games already since the beginning of 2023, putting up just over 1200 yards and 10 TDs in 19 games played.

Meanwhile, Hendrickson has missed only 1 game through his 4th season with the Bengals, amounting 51.0(!!!!!) sacks in that timeframe.

Hendrickson's sack production in 2025 (and 2026?) is more valuable than maybe 200-300 extra yards compared to a typical WR2, IMO.

IMO, an 800-1000 yard WR is about equivalent to a pass rusher who gets ~7-8 sacks in a season. A Sam Hubbard type.
Hendrickson is a consistent double-digit sack guy. He's a bona fide WR1 kinda dude. JaMarr Chase.
You don't let a Chase walk to keep a Higgins.

[George Cantstandya]

Defense has been absolutely terrible and cost the Bengals multiple games.  So trade the best player on defense to extend a very good but often injured WR?   If they trade Hendrickson to spend the money on Higgins who is going to replace Hendrickson?  Someone from the draft capital.  Yeah because the Bengals FO is so great at drafting.  No thanks.

[Ell Prez]

He has a favorable contact for a premium position and premium talent. I think he could get a 1st. Why not trade both him and Tee? Have two 1st and 2nd picks. Go DT, DE, CB, S.

I haven’t looked but I’m sure there’s an older receiver we could sign in FA to kick the can down the road for 2 years. FA target another CB, S and DE or DT.

[Ell Prez]

(Yesterday, 07:05 PM)ochocincos Wrote: This Bengals staff/FO cares too much about having guys in their mid-20's than having guys that can flat-out produce.

Higgins is great...when healthy.
He's missed 10 games already since the beginning of 2023, putting up just over 1200 yards and 10 TDs in 19 games played.

Meanwhile, Hendrickson has missed only 1 game through his 4th season with the Bengals, amounting 51.0(!!!!!) sacks in that timeframe.

Hendrickson's sack production in 2025 (and 2026?) is more valuable than maybe 200-300 extra yards compared to a typical WR2, IMO.

IMO, an 800-1000 yard WR is about equivalent to a pass rusher who gets ~7-8 sacks in a season. A Sam Hubbard type.
Hendrickson is a consistent double-digit sack guy. He's a bona fide WR1 kinda dude. JaMarr Chase.
You don't let a Chase walk to keep a Higgins.

I love Hendrickson. But if he falls off a cliff next year and gets 5 sacks, and can’t stop the run, what good is he? We can’t ignore his age, and we also can’t ignore we’re not 1 offseason away from having a Super Bowl caliber team. This is a rebuild. Not a mini, a complete rebuild. It’s going to take 2 off seasons. I think if we do this offseason right, we can be a wild card team next year. Another successful offseason and we could be a threat again. But it’s going to take home run off seasons and drafts.

[*Synric*]

Tough year to gamble on FA and draft picks...

[*ochocincos*]

(Yesterday, 07:22 PM)Ell Prez Wrote: I love Hendrickson. But if he falls off a cliff next year and gets 5 sacks, and can’t stop the run, what good is he? We can’t ignore his age, and we also can’t ignore we’re not 1 offseason away from having a Super Bowl caliber team. This is a rebuild. Not a mini, a complete rebuild. It’s going to take 2 off seasons. I think if we do this offseason right, we can be a wild card team next year. Another successful offseason and we could be a threat again. But it’s going to take home run off seasons and drafts.

Remember when the Bengals made this mistake with Andrew Whitworth?
Whitworth, like Hendrickson, was not showing signs of decline, just FO got paranoid about the age and wasn't willing to take the gamble he wouldn't decline.

IMO Hendrickson needs to actually show some decline before we start assuming he's going to drop off a cliff.