Pair of Mocks to consider

[SunsetBengal]

(12-23-2024, 03:45 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: My guess is the Bengals rank players. Yes, a chance depending on where we draft, Warren is gone. How will Bengals rank need based on position? Of course, FA will impact need.

Today we have a ton of need at various positions. Will we sign Tee long term or sign and trade him? Will we cut Cappa, Rankins or Stone? If we do and do not sign their replacement in FA, then guard, DT (did we sign Bj Hill to a new deal), DT and safety become more important than TE.

I am interested to see how Warren measure in the NFL combine. He seems to play fast, but maybe he is not close to a Kelcie speed for example. 

Our draft position could also get worse or better depending on how we finish 2024. If we lose to Denver and Steelers, we may be in position for pick 10 or 11 versus 13. If we win out, we may be in 16 to 18 range.

Unless he times absurdly slow, I really don't care what his testing numbers are. I've learned enough about what he has to offer by watching him play football. He get's separation, makes sure handed catches in tight coverage, and seems to really embrace delivering crushing blocks. 

[Luvnit2]

(12-23-2024, 04:02 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Unless he times absurdly slow, I really don't care what his testing numbers are. I've learned enough about what he has to offer by watching him play football. He get's separation, makes sure handed catches in tight coverage, and seems to really embrace delivering crushing blocks. 

I agree and said he plays fast. But playing fast in college does not always translate in the NFL

It is interesting to see some sites have in the top 5 and one had him at 41st. It is early, but I think he is the best TE prospect in the draft. I can see us not addressing TE in FA before the draft and then sign a vet if we don't get a stud TE in the draft.

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

(12-23-2024, 03:45 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: My guess is the Bengals rank players. Yes, a chance depending on where we draft, Warren is gone. How will Bengals rank need based on position? Of course, FA will impact need.

Today we have a ton of need at various positions. Will we sign Tee long term or sign and trade him? Will we cut Cappa, Rankins or Stone? If we do and do not sign their replacement in FA, then guard, DT (did we sign Bj Hill to a new deal), DT and safety become more important than TE.

I am interested to see how Warren measure in the NFL combine. He seems to play fast, but maybe he is not close to a Kelcie speed for example. 

Our draft position could also get worse or better depending on how we finish 2024. If we lose to Denver and Steelers, we may be in position for pick 10 or 11 versus 13. If we win out, we may be in 16 to 18 range.

That can be a big difference later on.

18, 50, & 82 vs 
11, 43, & 75. 

You can get a first round dropper at 43 and a 2nd round dropper at 75, and so on. But in the bottom half of the round it is much less likely. 

Our needs going into FA: 

1) WR2 (Higgins FA) 
-------------
2) RG (Cappa upgrade) 
3) DT/NT1 (BJ Hill FA) 
4) DE2 (Hubbard upgrade) 
5) DT/3T (Rankins upgrade) 
-------------
6) LG (Volson upgrade) 
7) TE1 (D. Sample upgrade, All injury worries)
---------

Beyond that? 

Maybe upgrading Stone or Pratt? Or McPherson? And depth. But getting 10 starters is asking a lot. 

[Luvnit2]

(12-25-2024, 07:55 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: That can be a big difference later on.

18, 50, & 82 vs 
11, 43, & 75. 

You can get a first round dropper at 43 and a 2nd round dropper at 75, and so on. But in the bottom half of the round it is much less likely. 

Our needs going into FA: 

1) WR2 (Higgins FA) 
-------------
2) RG (Cappa upgrade) 
3) DT/NT1 (BJ Hill FA) 
4) DE2 (Hubbard upgrade) 
5) DT/3T (Rankins upgrade) 
-------------
6) LG (Volson upgrade) 
7) TE1 (D. Sample upgrade, All injury worries)
---------

Beyond that? 

Maybe upgrading Stone or Pratt? Or McPherson? And depth. But getting 10 starters is asking a lot. 

Why are you assuming Bengals just let Higgins leave and get nothing in 2025? I believe either the sign him to a long-term deal or they tag and trade him.

I do agree we should cut Cappa, Rankins and Hubbard.

I am not sure how you calculate 10 starters or where McPherson came into play. Mac is going nowhere in my opinion. 

[Whatever]

(12-27-2024, 01:48 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: Why are you assuming Bengals just let Higgins leave and get nothing in 2025? I believe either the sign him to a long-term deal or they tag and trade him.

I do agree we should cut Cappa, Rankins and Hubbard.

I am not sure how you calculate 10 starters or where McPherson came into play. Mac is going nowhere in my opinion. 

They are not going to tag and trade him.  Tag and trade almost never works.  Plus, nobody is going to trade for a guy you're setting a $26.2 mill APY floor on for negotiations who's estimated value is $19 mil a year and is going to be coming off back to back sub 1000 yard seasons.  

I don't think Hubbard will go anywhere.  They are going to need to do extensions for Chase and Hendrickson, plus might extend Tee.  That means trying to convince these guys to take less guaranteed money.  Cutting a guy who put off surgery  got injured and won't be healthy for FA would do the opposite of telling guys " Trust us, you'll get your money.". 

[J24]

(12-27-2024, 03:06 PM)Whatever Wrote: They are not going to tag and trade him.  Tag and trade almost never works.  Plus, nobody is going to trade for a guy you're setting a $26.2 mill APY floor on for negotiations who's estimated value is $19 mil a year and is going to be coming off back to back sub 1000 yard seasons.  

I don't think Hubbard will go anywhere.  They are going to need to do extensions for Chase and Hendrickson, plus might extend Tee.  That means trying to convince these guys to take less guaranteed money.  Cutting a guy who put off surgery  got injured and won't be healthy for FA would do the opposite of telling guys " Trust us, you'll get your money.". 

Were are you getting 19 per a year for Tee Higgins? The dude is probably going to make close to 30 Mil per year on the open market.

[SunsetBengal]

(12-27-2024, 03:31 PM)J24 Wrote: Were are you getting 19 per a year for Tee Higgins? The dude is probably going to make close to 30 Mil per year on the open market.

After the past two seasons of injuries and limited production, I don't see anyone paying close to $30M/per for Tee Higgins. If fact, I'd just about be willing to be that his AAV wherever he does sign will be closer to $20M than $30M.

[Luvnit2]

(12-27-2024, 03:06 PM)Whatever Wrote:
They are not going to tag and trade him.  Tag and trade almost never works.  Plus, nobody is going to trade for a guy you're setting a $26.2 mill APY floor on for negotiations who's estimated value is $19 mil a year and is going to be coming off back to back sub 1000 yard seasons.  

I don't think Hubbard will go anywhere.  They are going to need to do extensions for Chase and Hendrickson, plus might extend Tee.  That means trying to convince these guys to take less guaranteed money.  Cutting a guy who put off surgery  got injured and won't be healthy for FA would do the opposite of telling guys " Trust us, you'll get your money.". 

Bengals have a HC in Tennessee who knows Tee very well. They need a WR1. Look at the 2025 draft and I don't see 1 WR better than Tee in this draft. The Bengals are permitted to have trade talks with team now, they just can't execute them. They could also give permission to Tee to talk to NFL teams about a future contract after he is tagged.

I am not sure of his value contract wise, but a similar young 2nd round pick A.J. Brown was traded from Titans to Eagles on draft day 2022, he then signed a 4 year 100-million-dollar deal or 25 million a year. He too had injury issues, but Eagles gave up a 1st round and I believe a 4th to get him.

Two words I never like to use are never and always. You seem to be saying never.

I hope the Bengals sign him, but I think it is value is much higher in the 2025 market than 19 million a year, even with his injuries.

[Whatever]

(12-27-2024, 03:37 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: Bengals have a HC in Tennessee who knows Tee very well. They need a WR1. Look at the 2025 draft and I don't see 1 WR better than Tee in this draft. The Bengals are permitted to have trade talks with team now, they just can't execute them. They could also give permission to Tee to talk to NFL teams about a future contract after he is tagged.

I am not sure of his value contract wise, but a similar young 2nd round pick A.J. Brown was traded from Titans to Eagles on draft day 2022, he then signed a 4 year 100-million-dollar deal or 25 million a year. He too had injury issues, but Eagles gave up a 1st round and I believe a 4th to get him.

Two words I never like to use are never and always. You seem to be saying never.

I hope the Bengals sign him, but I think it is value is much higher in the 2025 market than 19 million a year, even with his injuries.

Because the last former Bengals WR the Titans brought in because of Callahan paid off so well...and after that, you think he's going to bang his fist on the table to trade for Tee?

Brown missed 5 games in 3 years and 2 1000 yard seasons in those three years.  He also never had more than 106 Targets in a season with the Titans. To put that in perspective, Tee's got 92 Targets this year despite missing a ton of time with injury and Burrow throwing him the ball.  $18.3 APY is his market value per Spotrac.  Gotta realize he's going to set career lows for Yards/Catch and Yards/Target this year.  

Is it POSSIBLE someone trades for him if we tag him?  Sure.  There's a sucker born every minute.  Is it LIKELY?  No.  If they were going to trade him, they should have his final year of his rookie deal.  Since, his price has gone up and his play has gone down.  

[Luvnit2]

(12-27-2024, 05:55 PM)Whatever Wrote: Because the last former Bengals WR the Titans brought in because of Callahan paid off so well...and after that, you think he's going to bang his fist on the table to trade for Tee?

Brown missed 5 games in 3 years and 2 1000 yard seasons in those three years.  He also never had more than 106 Targets in a season with the Titans. To put that in perspective, Tee's got 92 Targets this year despite missing a ton of time with injury and Burrow throwing him the ball.  $18.3 APY is his market value per Spotrac.  Gotta realize he's going to set career lows for Yards/Catch and Yards/Target this year.  

Is it POSSIBLE someone trades for him if we tag him?  Sure.  There's a sucker born every minute.  Is it LIKELY?  No.  If they were going to trade him, they should have his final year of his rookie deal.  Since, his price has gone up and his play has gone down.  

NFL is risky business. Denver overpaid for Wilson, both financially and 5 draft picks. They would not have done it if they thought it was a mistake.

https://broncoswire.usatoday.com/lists/russell-wilson-trade-details-view-all-eight-players-seahawks-got-from-broncos/

An old Boyd versus a 26-year-old Tee Higgins is a joke of a comparison. You proved my point, Brown was injured. You fail to mention he missed 3 games in 2021, the final year as a Titan.

As I have said, if we can sign him for a low contract (yes Spotrac has him at 18.3 million but also has Wilson at 40 million a year), then we should sign him to a 4- or 5-year deal. In time we will learn his value, you may be correct, but I say closer to 23 or 24 million and you say closer to 18 million. Let's revisit after he signs to discuss who was correct.

The Bengals will not Tee's asking price, so there is no rule against the Bengals FO talking to other teams before or after they tag him. If no interest by other teams for his asking price, they let him hit FA, tag and keep him or offer him a long-term deal. 

As for hindsight with Tee, it is easy to say what you should do after the fact. I don't think their goal was to trade Tee.