2025 Free Agency - Who do you want, how much would you spend?

[puddycat]

My unpopular views: Geno Stone(experience) and Sheldon Rankins(injury/illnesss) will return.
At 6.5M Geno should not be preventing you from getting a better player if available, but Bengals believe in him more than the rest of the roster for at least the 2nd yr. of his contract. I could be entirely wrong on Rankins; he could be cooked, but he has been injured or ill since week 2 and also has just 1 yr. remaining at a depleted rotational position.

Resign: Higgins: He wants to play here. This deal can get done for <25M/yr. BJ Hill: see Sunset Bengal comments above, Mike Hilton: maybe only a 1-2 down player, but those are good snaps, and he's a veteran presence in a young secondary, Cody Ford: stays healthy and can play multiple spots, Gesicki: He's a slot/4th receiver, not really needed if Higgins is resigned, but dependable, Ossai: Has shown ability to generate pass rush when healthy, Rekhow: better practice his holds are he is the common link to York and Mcpherson missing left, Herbert: brings more to the backfield than TWilliams.

Outside FA targets: If BJ is out and/or Rankins cut, Jarran Reed in Seattle actually plays NT and averages 5 sacks and 20 pressures per year. He is 32 and was paid 6.5M last year. Matt Peart has been very capable backup LT in Denver. If I'm going to spend big money for an outside FA it'd be at RDE (Koonce 12-15M) or RG Fries or Daniels (10M/yr)

[SunsetBengal]

(01-03-2025, 08:39 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: I think we can all agree the Bengals FO doesn't learn much, but I will also say it's not the same situation as Whit or Campbell. Andrew Whitworth was a Pro Bowler playing at a very high level (but passed over for higher awards because of Joe Thomas in the AFCN) in his age 31 season, Campbell was 1st Team All-Pro in his age 31 season.

There's a large difference between guys playing at a very high level being able to keep doing that in their 30s versus a guy who is average continuing to be so into his 30s. The latter guys tend to fall off then because they have no extra space to fall from that isn't below average.

Think Michael Johnson vs Calais Campbell. 
Or for baseball Brandon Phillips vs Joe Morgan.

BJ Hill is okay, but he's much more Michael Johnson than Calais Campbell. He's not much of a dropoff away from being untenable as a starter.

I'm just saying that because of a chronological number, that does not mean that he's washed up. If the team drafted well, they should have confidence in re-signing Hill and letting nature take it's course. I think that it's the same site that everyone refers to around her that shows BJ Hill as the best free agent DT prospect out there this year. The Bengals also need to learn when to keep their guys.

Btw, the Brandon Phillips v Joe Morgan analogy just doesn't quite fit. I'm not saying that BJ Hill is, or ever was an All-Pro level guy, but he's durable and dependable with steady, solid production. Watching him chase a running QB at his age, compared to a slug like Myles Murphy who is much younger only reinforces my opinion on retaining Hill.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(01-03-2025, 09:00 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: I'm just saying that because of a chronological number, that does not mean that he's washed up. If the team drafted well, they should have confidence in re-signing Hill and letting nature take it's course. I think that it's the same site that everyone refers to around her that shows BJ Hill as the best free agent DT prospect out there this year. The Bengals also need to learn when to keep their guys.

Btw, the Brandon Phillips v Joe Morgan analogy just doesn't quite fit. I'm not saying that BJ Hill is, or ever was an All-Pro level guy, but he's durable and dependable with steady, solid production. Watching him chase a running QB at his age, compared to a slug like Myles Murphy who is much younger only reinforces my opinion on retaining Hill.

Didn't say he was washed up, I just said the Bengals currently are very adverse to both paying and playing guys in their 30s. 

The last time the Bengals gave a multi-year deal to a starter who was already in his age 30 or later season as far as I found with a quick search was Geno Atkins in 2018. So I feel like BJ Hill being the one who bucks that trend for the Bengals FO for the first time in 7 years by getting a 3 year deal is unlikely.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(01-03-2025, 09:07 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Didn't say he was washed up, I just said the Bengals currently are very adverse to both paying and playing guys in their 30s. 

The last time the Bengals gave a multi-year deal to a starter who was already in his age 30 or later season as far as I found with a quick search was Geno Atkins in 2018. So I feel like BJ Hill being the one who bucks that trend for the Bengals FO for the first time in 7 years by getting a 3 year deal is unlikely.

Yeah, if they’re going to do it for anyone I’d say Trey is more likely.

[SunsetBengal]

(01-03-2025, 09:07 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Didn't say he was washed up, I just said the Bengals currently are very adverse to both paying and playing guys in their 30s. 

The last time the Bengals gave a multi-year deal to a starter who was already in his age 30 or later season as far as I found with a quick search was Geno Atkins in 2018. So I feel like BJ Hill being the one who bucks that trend for the Bengals FO for the first time in 7 years by getting a 3 year deal is unlikely.

Interesting that you bring up Geno Atkins, he was a bonafide superstar. One has to wonder if he was really washed, or just felt used up when he went down the tubes? He played the bulk of his career in optimistic times with the Bengals, as the Marvin Lewis era began to fade so did he. I can't blame the team for clinging to him, as that was the last move of desperation before the coaching change. Perhaps Geno just decided that he had enough to retire on and checked out? 

I don't see a similar team overhaul in the works this year or next. BJ Hill has no reason to take the money and dump, as when I watch him he is still as competitive and pursues at full speed better than some younger players. As I said earlier, he's durable and dependable, and his production is pretty darn consistent.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(01-03-2025, 09:22 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Interesting that you bring up Geno Atkins, he was a bonafide superstar. One has to wonder if he was really washed, or just felt used up when he went down the tubes? He played the bulk of his career in optimistic times with the Bengals, as the Marvin Lewis era began to fade so did he. I can't blame the team for clinging to him, as that was the last move of desperation before the coaching change. Perhaps Geno just decided that he had enough to retire on and checked out? 

I don't see a similar team overhaul in the works this year or next. BJ Hill has no reason to take the money and dump, as when I watch him he is still as competitive and pursues at full speed better than some younger players. As I said earlier, he's durable and dependable, and his production is pretty darn consistent.

I don't think his shoulder healed right after they had him (ineffectively) play through it rather than go ahead and immediately get surgery to fix it. (Something we've continued to see happen since then with Hubbard, Wilson, etc.)

I also wonder how much of it was not getting along with Lou/the Dunlap situation. With Dunlap being put behind Khalid Kareem and Amani Bledsoe on the depth chart and him finding out about it from a blackboard rather than being talked to. Makes me wonder if Atkins just didn't want to try to come back after 2020, and was content to just Irish Goodbye the NFL (which is peak Geno).

[SunsetBengal]

(01-03-2025, 09:37 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: I don't think his shoulder healed right after they had him (ineffectively) play through it rather than go ahead and immediately get surgery to fix it. (Something we've continued to see happen since then with Hubbard, Wilson, etc.)

I also wonder how much of it was not getting along with Lou/the Dunlap situation. With Dunlap being put behind Khalid Kareem and Amani Bledsoe on the depth chart and him finding out about it from a blackboard rather than being talked to. Makes me wonder if Atkins just didn't want to try to come back after 2020, and was content to just Irish Goodbye the NFL (which is peak Geno).

That entire situation was what I was alluding to when I said "maybe he just checked out".  But you did one hell of a retelling of the events than I could even thought of doing, just off the top of my head. Getting old sucks..

[*Synric*]

(01-03-2025, 06:30 PM)J24 Wrote: Three guys I'm interested in for free agency.

Osa Odighizuwa 3T Dallas- 4 years 84 million(42 guranteed)
Zach Baun LB Eagles 3 years 48 Million( 32 Guranteed)

Mechi Becton RG Eagles 3 years 36 million(21 Guranteed)

Osa Odighizuwa for 21m avv?!?! No way no thank you. That's 3 down money and he's a liability against the run.

[samhain]

(01-03-2025, 09:22 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Interesting that you bring up Geno Atkins, he was a bonafide superstar. One has to wonder if he was really washed, or just felt used up when he went down the tubes? He played the bulk of his career in optimistic times with the Bengals, as the Marvin Lewis era began to fade so did he. I can't blame the team for clinging to him, as that was the last move of desperation before the coaching change. Perhaps Geno just decided that he had enough to retire on and checked out? 

I don't see a similar team overhaul in the works this year or next. BJ Hill has no reason to take the money and dump, as when I watch him he is still as competitive and pursues at full speed better than some younger players. As I said earlier, he's durable and dependable, and his production is pretty darn consistent.

I refuse to wear a current player's jersey to games.  Or purchase one at all.  I've worn my Willie Anderson jersey to over 100 games.  

Last week, I had a weird intuition telling me to buy a 97 Atkins jersey.  

[SunsetBengal]

(01-03-2025, 10:21 PM)samhain Wrote: I refuse to wear a current player's jersey to games.  Or purchase one at all.  I've worn my Willie Anderson jersey to over 100 games.  

Last week, I had a weird intuition telling me to buy a 97 Atkins jersey.  

The only Bengals jersey that I currently own is a #97 Geno Atkins jersey. People ask why I don't have a Burrow jersey, I tell them I played on both sides of the line, I'm just a trenches kind of guy.

[samhain]

(01-03-2025, 10:29 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: The only Bengals jersey that I currently own is a #97 Geno Atkins jersey. People ask why I don't have a Burrow jersey, I tell them I played on both sides of the line, I'm just a trenches kind of guy.

Same.  I'm open to other jerseys, but I'm into legacy.  Shit can go downhill fast will current players.

That said, it's hard not to want a Burrow jersey.  It's getting harder with every passing game to say that he isn't the best ever to wear stripes.  

I still like to rep guys from bygone eras.  I hate to see them forgotten.

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

(01-03-2025, 05:26 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I wanted to make this thread, as it relates to the mock drafts that some of us have started making in the Draft Central space.

For 2025, Bengals have a projected cap remaining of $60 mill.
The Bengals can free up the following cap by cutting these players:
Rankins - $10.5 mill
Cappa - $8 mill
Stone - $6.5 mill
Hubbard - $9.6 mill

Any/all of those guys helps add a decent chunk of $$ to the available cap, and with so many positions the Bengals will open from impending FAs and upgrades in general, people are starting to think up their wish lists of guys they want added who could hit FA (https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/_/year/2025)

So my question is - Who are some guys you would like to see added in FA next year (or re-signed in Higgins' case), about what cost do you think their value is, and how much would you be willing to spend to sign them?
For example, you may say to retain Higgins, you think his value may be $25-30 mill but you'd only be willing to keep him if he'd sign for $21 mill or less.

*And yes, it's ok to be talking about this even though there is still 1+ game remaining in the season. It's possible to look at 2025 and root for this season in parallel

Thanks for starting this thread. 

Numbers a bit different at OTC, $61.7 mil in space, with the following savings if waived: 

1) Rankins: $9.5 mil (no diff +/- 6/1)
2) Cappa: $8 mil (no diff +/- 6/1)
3) Moss: $3.475 (no diff +/- 6/1)
----------
4) Hubbard: $9.6 (no diff +/- 6/1)
----------
5) Stone: $6.475 (no diff +/- 6/1)
6) McPherson: $2.5 (post 6/1 only)
7) Pratt: $5.6 mil (no diff +/- 6/1)

https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/cincinnati-bengals

I cut Rankins, Cappa, and Moss immediately, and net just under $21 mil to push my cap space to $82.6 mil. 

The piece I see missing from a lot of posts the ability for the team to restructure Burrow's contract, with his consent, to save $19 mil. For the life of me, I cannot find the link. That would boost us to $101.6 mil. A somewhat inflated number as it is using top 51 (not 53), only includes 42 players, and no $$ for the PS, or cushion for the season. 

The first thing I do is get Tee signed. Day 1, hour 1. IDK if we can do it sooner, but I wanted that done before open FA starts if we can. I will tag him if I have to. Then I go to Joe and ask for the max restructure to free up $$ for Chase & Trey extensions and other FA. 

1. Sign Higgins, the cap hit has to be below $25 mil or I will tag him again. 
2. Restructure Burrow 
3. Chase extension 
-----------

I estimate $30 mil for cap hit for Tee and Chase's extension. Down to $71.6. At 40 guys after the 3 cuts. Say goodbye to I. Thomas (DE) and L. Robinson (CB) which saves me $2 mil and takes me down to 38 guys and $73.6 mil. Cut Hubbard, $83.2 mil at 37. The PS will cost me $3 mil or so, say down to $80. 

I am willing to spend $35 mil on a pair of guards. Jenkins at LG for $15-$17 mil ish and whatever it takes on the other side: Smith will be $20 mil; Fries & Daniels are coming off injury, I prefer Fries, but maybe a discount due to injury. Zeitler (age) and Becton should be cheaper. 

$45 mil left with 39 guys. I start to look at my own guys and see what, if any, I may have left. 

1. Hilton ($6 mil) 
2. Rehkow ($1 mil) 
3. Adomitis ($1 mil) 
4. Gesicki ($5 mil)

$32 mil at 43.

I'd REALLY love a significant DE + DT spend (Josh Sweat +1), but I don't think I can afford it. 

Roster is currently: 
QB (2): Burrow, Browning
RB: (1): C. Brown; 
WR: (6): Chase, Higgins, Yoshi; I. Williams, C. Jones, Burton. 
TE (4): D. Sample, Gesicki, All, McLachlan
OT (3): O. Brown, Mims; Cochran 
OG (4): FA G#1, FA G#2, Volson, Stueber
C (2): Karras, Lee
------------
DE (3): Hendrickson; Murphy, C. Johnson 
DT (2): Jackson, Jenkins 
LB (4): Wilson, Pratt; Njongmeta, Heyward 
CB (6): CTB, D. Hill, Hilton; Turner, Newton, Ivey
S (4): Battle, Stone; Anderson, Anthony
----------
PK: McPherson 
P: Rehkow 
LS: Adomitis

Gimme Ford, ADG, & Herbert for $5 mil. $27 mil at 46 guys. Budget $8 mil for 6 picks. $19 mil at 52 guys. Cut Stueber. $20 mil at 51. Sign Ossai back. $2.5 mil. $17.5 at 52. 

Sniff around the value bin at DT. BJ Hill, Poona Ford, Tart. Sign one higher end. Say $9 mil for BJ. $8.5 cushion left.

Draft 1st 4 rounds: 
1) DE (Day 1-2) 
2) DT Rds 1-4 
3) Wildcard: S/LB/#3 rec (TE1/slot WR)
4) Best of whatever's left + DT/RB
------------
Last 2 picks: BPA of stated needs  + PK into play (cut McPherson to save $2.5 mil). 

Minor FA/bargain bins possible from there. $8.5-$11 mil cushion. Some guys may get displaced by draft picks or late minor FA signings (Bell, T. Brown, Bachie, etc). 
---------------

But I think I can squeeze in 3 big-ish signings in the treches. Two totaling $35 mil, plus $9 mil at DT (BJ), plus Tee, plus Hilton & Gesicki. If I can land a prime DE instead (Sweat), then take DE off the table for the draft and add OG.

IDK if I have enough left to extend Trey. I'd want to. Karras, Pratt, & Stone will be coming off the books next year. If I did mot land replacements this year, I do it next. 

[t3r3e3]

(01-03-2025, 07:01 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Feels pricy for a WR2, but Jaylen Waddle makes $28.25 mill APY and is second fiddle to Tyreek Hill, so it may happen.
Obviously in the case of MIA and also in CIN, we're talking for 1A and 1B rather than a true WR2, but still.

With Chase likely going to end up getting $35+ mill APY, Bengals could end up investing $60+ mill into their top two pass catchers.
Potentially $100+ mill APY when including Burrow.

I know the cap is >$250 mill nowadays, but man 40% on 3 players, all of which are on the offense, feels like a ton.

Chase is likely getting 40+ AAV after the front office’s absolute bungling of last offseason. There’s no way he signs for less than Ceedee and Jefferson received. Locking up Ted and Chase will likely require somewhere between 65-70 AAV.

[J24]

(01-03-2025, 07:06 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: I can't get on board with passing on BJ Hill for Odighizuwa, especially at that price point. 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/O/OdigOs00.htm

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HillB.00.htm

When you compare their stat lines over the past 4 years, they're pretty much the same player. I'd rather stay with a guy whose been part of the team, is a good fit and respected by this team already than to overpay for similar production simply because the guy is younger. The Bengals drafted a pair for the DL last year, they likely still need to draft another and sign another lesser expensive vet to go along with BJ Hill and the younger guys. I think that if the Bengals are aggressive with negotiations, they could likely get BJ Hill for 3yrs/$40-42M.

Baun may be a slight improvement to pair with Wilson, but at $16M/per, that seems a bit high.

I do like your idea of adding Mechi Becton at RG, he seems to have found his place there after flaming out as a high profile tackle prospect. I feel like trading Cappa's savings and investing into Becton would pay off well for the team.

The Case for Osa!

1.) According to PFF he is 3rd in pressures amongst DTs with 55 compared to Hill who is 35th with 29.

2.) According to PFF Osa is 5th in pass rush win rate with a 14.8 pass rush win rate & 21.7 Pass Rush win rate on true pass sets which makes him 3rd overall amongst DTs.
BJ Hill is 56th with an 8.2 pass rush win rate & on true pass rush sets he is 67th with 10.3. 
(Minimum Of 124 snaps)

 https://twitter.com/stevemayne/status/1874810734275944768?s=19


https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/41040723/2024-nfl-win-rates-top-teams-players-rankings

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/38356170/2023-nfl-pass-rush-run-stop-blocB

I'm a little less confident in the Baun but he is regarded as a potential DPOY this season and a versatile LB who can play off ball LB or can play as an edge in the 3-4. He has excellent PFF numbers and traditional numbers. Seems to me he is an old school player who fits any scheme. Specifically a Lou scheme.

Becton is a guy I think the FO will love big, athletic, and Versatile. + the added bonus that he was a former first rd pick.

[Bengalstripes9]

On that top 50 list I like the two Vikings players:
Safety Bynum
Corner Murphy.

The Vikings have been very good on defense this year and these two are steady players.
These guys are ranked in the 30s so they could be realistic targets.

I also like bringing in a pass rusher.

[*Synric*]

(01-04-2025, 01:55 AM)J24 Wrote: The Case for Osa!

1.) According to PFF he is 3rd in pressures amongst DTs with 55 compared to Hill who is 35th with 29.

2.) According to PFF Osa is 5th in pass rush win rate with a 14.8 pass rush win rate & 21.7 Pass Rush win rate on true pass sets which makes him 3rd overall amongst DTs.
BJ Hill is 56th with an 8.2 pass rush win rate & on true pass rush sets he is 67th with 10.3. 
(Minimum Of 124 snaps)

 https://twitter.com/stevemayne/status/1874810734275944768?s=19


https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/41040723/2024-nfl-win-rates-top-teams-players-rankings

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/38356170/2023-nfl-pass-rush-run-stop-blocB

I'm a little less confident in the Baun but he is regarded as a potential DPOY this season and a versatile LB who can play off ball LB or can play as an edge in the 3-4. He has excellent PFF numbers and traditional numbers. Seems to me he is an old school player who fits any scheme. Specifically a Lou scheme.

Becton is a guy I think the FO will love big, athletic, and Versatile. + the added bonus that he was a former first rd pick.

Osa is also a complete Liability against the run. He is a 6'2 280lb rotational DT that is playing WAY to many snaps because the Cowboys DL stinks and is injured. That's 21m aav for a small rotational DT.

Milton Williams is in the same boat a rotational pass rushing DT that is terrible against the run and isn't a 3 down player.


I'd love to get either of these guys closer to the 12m aav mark but in a super weak FA class they will get paid. 

[*Synric*]

(01-04-2025, 12:23 AM)t3r3e3 Wrote: Chase is likely getting 40+ AAV after the front office’s absolute bungling of last offseason.  There’s no way he signs for less than Ceedee and Jefferson received. Locking up Ted and Chase will likely require somewhere between 65-70 AAV.

Chase won't get 40m aav. 

Justin Jefferson only gets 35m aav at the top of the market there is zero reason for the Bengals to reset WR market that much one season later. They can do like 36 or 36.5m and give Chase his 120m guaranteed which is 10m more guaranteed than Jeffersons 110m.

[SladeX]

I stopped reading at 2 and 3 on the list.
That’s what I want.

[grampahol]

(01-03-2025, 09:42 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: That entire situation was what I was alluding to when I said "maybe he just checked out".  But you did one hell of a retelling of the events than I could even thought of doing, just off the top of my head. Getting old sucks..

Getting old does kind of suck, but the alternative is kind of bleak too. Not a lot of people return from the grave unless they're born with some kind of AI thing nobody knows about yet.   I wonder if Geno got word that his shoulder can't be fixed. Not everything can be operated on successfully. Shoulder is a touchy part of the body. There's been a whole bunch of major league pitchers over the years that went out over shoulder injuries never to be heard from again.   

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

(01-03-2025, 07:15 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Pollack has familiarity with Becton, being as he was the OL coach when the Jets drafted Becton back in 2020.
I have to wonder if Pollack was not fond of Becton, as he could have lobbied for him this past offseason when he hit FA but he ended up signing with PHI for a measly $2.75 mill instead.

Becton is playing well for PHI at RG and deserves a pay increase, but I have to wonder if Becton left a sour taste in Pollack's mouth that he may not want him in Cincy regardless.

I believe we had him in for a visit last offseason. I freaked out because I thought it was at OT. Butcwe could have been thinking G like Philly. But it was pre-draft,,so Moms hadn't been picket yet. 

I *think* I have the timing right.