Will We See a Lot of Hill?

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

Shake n Blake
Look, I get that it's popular to pick on Brad, but I understood what he was saying/asking. 

Hill just doesn't have it this year, but when I see a player rush for 1100 yards on 5.1 ypc and then see that ypc drop to 3.3 the next season, I think it's a little more complex than simply saying he sucks or suddenly "lacks vision". There could be numerous factors, such as change in offensive philosophy, blocking schemes, fullback usage, etc. 

Also it's possible that Hill is playing through undisclosed injury (it happens) or maybe he's just dancing more this year. Either way, I believe Hill proved his physical talent last year. He ripped off constant big gainers and looked like he was going to be a stud for years. You just don't see scrubs coming in and doing what he did last year.

It's more likely that it's a down year for him and something needs to change in order for him to regain his old form. We've seen down years from RBs many times. Doug Martin was abysmal for 2 years after a stellar rookie season. Now he's leading the NFL in rushing. The talent was always there.

Maybe an undisclosed injury could explain Hill, but otherwise Doug Martin isn't a good example because he was hurt those two years he stunk. 6 games in one year, 11 in the other. Now he's healthy again and now he's good again.

As for the "You don't see scrubs coming in and doing what he did last year." I will point to LeGarrette Blount, Peyton Hillis, and Reggie Brooks.
Blount started his career with 1,007 yards at 5.0 YPC. Then went on to have 781 yards/4.2 YPC ithe next year.
Hillis had 1,177 yards at 4.4 YPC. Then went on to have 587 yards/3.6 YPC the next year.
Brooks had 1,063 yards at 4.8 YPC his rookie year. Then went on to have 297 yards at 3.0 YPC the next year.

Possibly the most apt comparison I can make for what is happening to Hill is Steve Slaton. Slaton had 1,282 yards at 4.8 YPC his rookie year. He also had a fumbling problem. His next year he had 437 yards at 3.3 YPC. Eventually faded out of the league.

[Shake n Blake]

(12-26-2015, 03:16 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Shake n Blake
Look, I get that it's popular to pick on Brad, but I understood what he was saying/asking. 

Hill just doesn't have it this year, but when I see a player rush for 1100 yards on 5.1 ypc and then see that ypc drop to 3.3 the next season, I think it's a little more complex than simply saying he sucks or suddenly "lacks vision". There could be numerous factors, such as change in offensive philosophy, blocking schemes, fullback usage, etc. 

Also it's possible that Hill is playing through undisclosed injury (it happens) or maybe he's just dancing more this year. Either way, I believe Hill proved his physical talent last year. He ripped off constant big gainers and looked like he was going to be a stud for years. You just don't see scrubs coming in and doing what he did last year.

It's more likely that it's a down year for him and something needs to change in order for him to regain his old form. We've seen down years from RBs many times. Doug Martin was abysmal for 2 years after a stellar rookie season. Now he's leading the NFL in rushing. The talent was always there.

Maybe an undisclosed injury could explain Hill, but otherwise Doug Martin isn't a good example because he was hurt those two years he stunk. 6 games in one year, 11 in the other. Now he's healthy again and now he's good again.

As for the "You don't see scrubs coming in and doing what he did last year." I will point to LeGarrette Blount, Peyton Hillis, and Reggie Brooks.
Blount started his career with 1,007 yards at 5.0 YPC. Then went on to have 781 yards/4.2 YPC ithe next year.
Hillis had 1,177 yards at 4.4 YPC. Then went on to have 587 yards/3.6 YPC the next year.
Brooks had 1,063 yards at 4.8 YPC his rookie year. Then went on to have 297 yards at 3.0 YPC the next year.

Possibly the most apt comparison I can make for what is happening to Hill is Steve Slaton. Slaton had 1,282 yards at 4.8 YPC his rookie year. He also had a fumbling problem. His next year he had 437 yards at 3.3 YPC. Eventually faded out of the league.

Honestly, Blount is still a good player. The Pats don't often feature 1 RB, but Blount has been a very effective starter for them. Hillis is a good example, but the fact that you had to go back 20 years for your other example (Brooks) just proves my point. It's very rare to see a RB play at that level and then disappear for non-injury reasons.

I'm very familiar with Slaton because I drafted him twice in fantasy and was interested in the Bengals picking him up several years ago. Slaton fell into Kubiak's dog house due to a big fumbling problem. It was also rumored that injuries sapped his effectiveness. The Texans ran a pretty unique zone-blocking scheme that suited Slaton well. He was pretty useless elsewhere.

[BengalsRocker]

(12-26-2015, 02:42 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Look, I get that it's popular to pick on Brad, but I understood what he was saying/asking. 

Hill just doesn't have it this year, but when I see a player rush for 1100 yards on 5.1 ypc and then see that ypc drop to 3.3 the next season, I think it's a little more complex than simply saying he sucks or suddenly "lacks vision". There could be numerous factors, such as change in offensive philosophy, blocking schemes, fullback usage, etc. 

Also it's possible that Hill is playing through undisclosed injury (it happens) or maybe he's just dancing more this year. Either way, I believe Hill proved his physical talent last year. He ripped off constant big gainers and looked like he was going to be a stud for years. You just don't see scrubs coming in and doing what he did last year.

It's more likely that it's a down year for him and something needs to change in order for him to regain his old form. We've seen down years from RBs many times. Doug Martin was abysmal for 2 years after a stellar rookie season. Now he's leading the NFL in rushing. The talent was always there.

It's obvious the blocking schemes have changed and will probably continue to change under Hue.  Personnel as well.

I never said he lacked vision.  There has been some questionable decisions by him.  It's there.  On tape.

I do believe he is trying to carry the ball differently.  His footwork has changed.  He's trying to slide hop, and skip before and at the LOS.

There have been some holes.  He seems to be looking for the homerun  and not just getting to the second level where he should be able to take on defenders.

Does he have it in him?  I believe so.  Like you said he's done it before. 

To me it seems more mental than anything.  I just hope they can figure it out before next season.

[Shake n Blake]

(12-26-2015, 04:16 PM)BengalsRocker Wrote: It's obvious the blocking schemes have changed and will probably continue to change under Hue.  Personnel as well.

I never said he lacked vision.  There has been some questionable decisions by him.  It's there.  On tape.

I do believe he is trying to carry the ball differently.  His footwork has changed.  He's trying to slide hop, and skip before and at the LOS.

There have been some holes.  He seems to be looking for the homerun  and not just getting to the second level where he should be able to take on defenders.

Does he have it in him?  I believe so.  Like you said he's done it before. 

To me it seems more mental than anything.  I just hope they can figure it out before next season.

Just to clarify, I don't believe Hill is without fault. I've seen where he's missed some holes this year. I'm only saying that I still think Hill is a talented back and I don't think he's going to be a 3.3 ypc type of back for the rest of his career. I believe he'll bounce back at some point. It'd be nice if it happened this year, but I'm not holding my breath. I think he's going to have to hit the reset button and approach next season differently.

Until then, he's still good enough to justify a share of the carries and all the goal line work.

[BengalsRocker]

(12-26-2015, 05:34 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Just to clarify, I don't believe Hill is without fault. I've seen where he's missed some holes this year. I'm only saying that I still think Hill is a talented back and I don't think he's going to be a 3.3 ypc type of back for the rest of his career. I believe he'll bounce back at some point. It'd be nice if it happened this year, but I'm not holding my breath. I think he's going to have to hit the reset button and approach next season differently.

Until then, he's still good enough to justify a share of the carries and all the goal line work.

Yeah I'm on board with that.