My Predictive 2025 First Round Pick

[Okeana]

THIS IS NOT WHAT I WANT TO HAPPEN

This is only based on the predictive logic that I used last year to choose Mims and looking at the history of first-round picks since Zac Taylor took over.

Key Factors

- The Player must be part of a team that has gone to the playoffs or won a championship during their college career
- The player must be young; 5 out of the last 6 picks have been 21 years old at the time of the draft. Joe Burrow is the exception
- They always have a predraft meeting with the player during the process

- If you look at the meetings, you will often see patterns. For example, they haven't met with a single projected first-round Offensive tackle or guard in the process.


My Predictive Pick for the 2025 NFL Draft is....

Mykel Williams, Edge, Georgia

- turns 21 in July
- met at the combine
- played on a championship team with Georgia
- high football character
- They have spent a lot of time with Defensive linemen during the process, but they are looking at later-round Defensive tackles as well. All the edges are first-round guys
- has the size preferences of a Bengals edge player
- 2024 production numbers can be explained away with nagging injuries during the season; similar to Mims, they won't see it as a concern

Some other key players who also fit the mold

- Will Johnson Michigan CB
- Malakai Starks Georgia S
- Emeka Ebuka Ohio State WR
- Colston Loveland TE Michigan
- Tyler Warren TE Penn State ( did not win a championship but had playoff success) least likely of this bunch

If you want, I can make a separate thread and break down my predictive models to look at the position groups they will focus on by rounds

[*ochocincos*]

I think it will be someone from a champion/playoff team the past few years, at least if they stay at 17.

Malaki Starks
Jalon Walker
Mykel Williams
James Pearce Jr. (if team is ok with his supposed red flags)
Will Johnson
Jahdae Barron
Tyler Booker
Derrick Harmon
Kelvin Banks Jr.
Jihaad Campbell
Josh Simmons (if they would have plan to put inside until OBJ moves on)

I also would personally love Tyler Warren or Colston Loveland, but I don't think at least Loveland happens, likely also Warren with Gesicki signed for 3 more years.
Warren is my personal favorite prospect in the draft class.

[Okeana]

(04-14-2025, 12:41 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I think it will be someone from a champion/playoff team the past few years, at least if they stay at 17.

Malaki Starks
Jalon Walker
Mykel Williams
James Pearce Jr. (if team is ok with his supposed red flags)
Will Johnson
Jahdae Barron
Tyler Booker
Derrick Harmon
Kelvin Banks Jr.
Jihaad Campbell
Josh Simmons (if they would have plan to put inside until OBJ moves on)

I also would personally love Tyler Warren or Colston Loveland, but I don't think at least Loveland happens, likely also Warren with Gesicki signed for 3 more years.
Warren is my personal favorite prospect in the draft class.

you just listed a bunch of prospects who don't fit the criteria.  read the post next time

[*ochocincos*]

(04-14-2025, 01:04 PM)Okeana Wrote: you just listed a bunch of prospects who don't fit the criteria.  read the post next time

I read it, I just was giving my own opinion who I think will be in their main consideration.
I listed guys who, like you said, played in the playoffs or won a national championship recently.

Bengals have met with many of these players.
I did not go back to see if every single one I mentioned they had met with though, but let me do that.
From list of Combine, Pro Day, and 30 visits I see...
Starks
Pearce
Williams
Johnson
Carter

I'm not about to go try to find out which of these guys are under 22 years old though, but I would hope that's the least important of the bunch.
Burrow and Chase are the only guys in recent memory I can remember them extended beyond rookie deals who were taken in the 1st round, as most have not panned out well enough to earn another contract with Bengals.
Jonah, Hill, Murphy all nope.
I think you'd have to go all the way back to Tyler Eifert as the last 1st round pick since before Burrow who was signed to a long-term deal after their rookie deal, right?

If it really gets down to the list you mention, I'd personally not be too thrilled with Mykel Williams (I know you said you wouldn't go that route either).
I also can't imagine they'd go for Egbuka, Warren, or Loveland now given the 3+ year deals to Higgins, Chase, and Gesicki, but maybe they surprise us?
Johnson I don't have confidence makes it to 17, but I could see that based on Hill and CTB entering final year under contract.

[Okeana]

(04-14-2025, 01:23 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I read it, I just was giving my own opinion who I think will be in their main consideration.
I listed guys who, like you said, played in the playoffs or won a national championship recently.

Bengals have met with many of these players.
I did not go back to see if every single one I mentioned they had met with though, but let me do that.
From list of Combine, Pro Day, and 30 visits I see...
Starks
Pearce
Williams
Johnson
Carter

I'm not about to go try to find out which of these guys are under 22 years old though, but I would hope that's the least important of the bunch.
Burrow and Chase are the only guys in recent memory I can remember them extended beyond rookie deals who were taken in the 1st round, as most have not panned out well enough to earn another contract with Bengals.
Jonah, Hill, Murphy all nope.
I think you'd have to go all the way back to Tyler Eifert as the last 1st round pick since before Burrow who was signed to a long-term deal after their rookie deal, right?

If it really gets down to the list you mention, I'd personally not be too thrilled with Mykel Williams (I know you said you wouldn't go that route either).
I also can't imagine they'd go for Egbuka, Warren, or Loveland now given the 3+ year deals to Higgins, Chase, and Gesicki, but maybe they surprise us?
Johnson I don't have confidence makes it to 17, but I could see that based on Hill and CTB entering final year under contract.

james pearce jr doesn't fit the profile at all.  didn't win or participate in a national championship and they lost in the first round of playoffs.  huge character red flags

carter is not within range so its rediculous to even list him.  leaaves you with Williams, starks, and johnson.  they have met with only first round edge prospects and out of that group only Williams fits their profile.  They have met with Johnson and starks at the combine, but they don't seem overly interested in the class with only a couple other guys in later rounds.

I personally dislike Williams a lot, but the predictive data is pretty clear that if he's there at 17 it will be the pick.  personally I think Green is light years above all of these players, but the data doesn't support him at all

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(04-14-2025, 12:02 PM)Okeana Wrote: THIS IS NOT WHAT I WANT TO HAPPEN

This is only based on the predictive logic that I used last year to choose Mims and looking at the history of first-round picks since Zac Taylor took over.

Key Factors

- The Player must be part of a team that has gone to the playoffs or won a championship during their college career
- The player must be young; 5 out of the last 6 picks have been 21 years old at the time of the draft.  Joe Burrow is the exception
-  They always have a predraft meeting with the player during the process

-  If you look at the meetings, you will often see patterns.  For example, they haven't met with a single projected first-round Offensive tackle or guard in the process.


My Predictive Pick for the 2025 NFL Draft is....

Mykel Williams, Edge, Georgia

- turns 21 in July
- met at the combine
- played on a championship team with Georgia
- high football character
- They have spent a lot of time with Defensive linemen during the process, but they are looking at later-round Defensive tackles as well.  All the edges are first-round guys
- has the size preferences of a Bengals edge player
-  2024 production numbers can be explained away with nagging injuries during the season; similar to Mims, they won't see it as a concern

Some other key players who also fit the mold

- Will Johnson Michigan CB
- Malakai Starks Georgia S
- Emeka Ebuka Ohio State WR
- Colston Loveland TE Michigan
- Tyler Warren TE Penn State ( did not win a championship but had playoff success)  least likely of this bunch

If you want, I can make a separate thread and break down my predictive models to look at the position groups they will focus on by rounds

Interesting. I don't necessarily want that to happen either with Mykel Willaims because of his injuries, but I guess I wouldn't hate it and
it does make sense going from what we have seen with the Bengals in the past and most recently. I thought Mims was a more of a sure 
thing last year than I do Mykel this year. Honestly of the ones you mention, Warren is by far the one I like the most with Starks behind 
him, Johnson won't be there at 17 IMO.

[*ochocincos*]

(04-14-2025, 01:56 PM)Okeana Wrote: james pearce jr doesn't fit the profile at all.  didn't win or participate in a national championship and they lost in the first round of playoffs.  huge character red flags

carter is not within range so its rediculous to even list him.  leaaves you with Williams, starks, and johnson.  they have met with only first round edge prospects and out of that group only Williams fits their profile.  They have met with Johnson and starks at the combine, but they don't seem overly interested in the class with only a couple other guys in later rounds.

I personally dislike Williams a lot, but the predictive data is pretty clear that if he's there at 17 it will be the pick.  personally I think Green is light years above all of these players, but the data doesn't support him at all

You legit posted this as the first criteria:

Quote:The Player must be part of a team that has gone to the playoffs or won a championship during their college career

Tennessee did, in fact, go to the playoffs, which is why I listed JPJ.

As for Carter...Sorry, I wasn't meaning Abdul Carter, I was thinking of Jalon Walker. Jalen Carter is who came into my mind, which is why I typed Carter.

I'm personally more concerned about Mike Green's off-field red flag than anyone else's.
Two separate accusations of assault, one from high school and one from when he was at Virginia, which supposedly prompted his transfer to Marshall.
It may be a case of where he doesn't consider what he did to be assault but someone else did, but with that said, I would not take the chance of that repeating itself once he would potentially have a ton of money and fame as a young, rich professional athlete.