Chase Burns debut timing?

[samhain]

Last year I crashed out in the draft thread when they selected a pitcher over a bat. Guess what? it looks like the people actually getting paid to make decisions knew more than my keyboard warrior ass. Hindsight says they'd have been absolute fools not to sprint to the podium and make the choice they did.

Burns looks nothing short of amazing in the minors. He's rapidly rising through the system. Everything I've heard from commentators and read online indicates that he is MLB ready now, minus developing some habits he will need to be a pro (minor routine stuff).

Apparently he developed a sinker post-draft that he didn't have coming out of college. It's been described as much more than a useful pitch; an actual plus pitch. That's a big deal for a player that wants to start at the MLB level. I don't remember where I heard it, but one particular insider was saying that while he ain't Paul Skenes, he's not as far as you would think from where the Pirates' star was when he made his debut.

I'm going to say that we see him very soon after the break.

The rotation for the next few years has the potential to be disgusting. Greene, Burns, Lodolo, Lowder, and Abbott. If they merely had the balls to spend on a RH power bat, life might be a lot of fun for Reds fans.

[Goalpost]

Yea.  They need to draft some outfielders now.  Lots of mocks are giving us lefty power hitting Jace LaViolette OF Texas A and M.

It's legitimate to call Burn's ceiling Greene-like.

[CJD]

(05-17-2025, 02:00 PM)samhain Wrote: Last year I crashed out in the draft thread when they selected a pitcher over a bat.  Guess what?  it looks like the people actually getting paid to make decisions knew more than my keyboard warrior ass.  Hindsight says they'd have been absolute fools not to sprint to the podium and make the choice they did.  

Burns looks nothing short of amazing in the minors.  He's rapidly rising through the system.  Everything I've heard from commentators and read online indicates that he is MLB ready now, minus developing some habits he will need to be a pro (minor routine stuff).

Apparently he developed a sinker post-draft that he didn't have coming out of college.  It's been described as much more than a useful pitch; an actual plus pitch.  That's a big deal for a player that wants to start at the MLB level.  I don't remember where I heard it, but one particular insider was saying that while he ain't Paul Skenes, he's not  as far as you would think from where the Pirates' star was when he made his debut.

I'm going to say that we see him very soon after the break.  

The rotation for the next few years has the potential to be disgusting.  Greene, Burns, Lodolo, Lowder, and Abbott.  If they merely had the balls to spend on a RH power bat, life might be a lot of fun for Reds fans.

Burns may force their hand to promote him faster than they even did with Lowder last year.

Lowder started in A+ in 2024, moved to AA midway through the season and then had just one start in AAA before being called up the majors. Granted, his call up may have been accelerated by need at the major league level, but he performed very well there.

Lowder breezed through A+ with a 2.48 ERA in 5 starts (25.1 IP), so they moved him up to AA at the beginning of May (similar to what they did with Burns). He did struggle a little bit in AA initially, with an ERA of 7.14 in his first 8 starts (34 IP) in AA. 

His second set of 8 starts in AA went much better, with an ERA of 2.08 over 43.1 IP. 

They called him up to AAA in August, he threw a single scoreless 6 IP game and then hey called him up to the majors where he was unsustainably good.

They are taking Burns through a similar path this season with him getting 3 starts in A+ where he seemed clearly too much for that level of prospect, with an ERA of 3.08 through 11.2 IP in 3 starts, before they moved him up to AA.

The big difference with Burns is he has not had that rough start to AA that Lowder had. He has made 4 starts so far and he's been just as impressive against AA hitting as he was against A+ hitting, and has been even better at limiting walks and runs with a BB/9 of 0.95 and an ERA of 1.89. His K/9 dropped slightly from 15.4 to 13.3, but 13.3 would still be extraordinarily elite in MLB (for reference, Hunter has a K/9 of 12.02 this season). 

If he keeps up this dominance, I could see him debuting in the majors by mid June. Let's predict June 19th as the earliest realistic date, just for fun. That would be approximately 6 starts from now, which would mean he completed 4 more starts in AA (to match Lowder's 8 dominant starts), plus 1 in AAA.

Would that be best for his development? That's for Derek Johnson to decide. It'll also depend a lot on injuries in the majors, as we have 4 starters that aren't going anywhere if healthy (Greene, Lodolo, Singer, Abbott). Martinez could theoretically be moved to the bullpen, but he has been really good over his last few starts, so it will likely take an injury or two to see Burns in the majors before August. But it sure would be an exciting thing to see.


For the record, Jac Caglianone was selected after Burns and he looks like a great young hitter so far in his short career, with a .952 OPS so far this season.

Also worth noting, Nick Kurtz, the pre season favorite to go #1 overall in 2024 before missing a portion of the season due to injury (and thus being passed by Condon and Brazzana) has already debuted in the majors after having an OPS of 1.120 in 147 minor league plate appearances. I think he was a case of the Athletics just needing a bat on their major league roster, but he was definitely impressing in the minor leagues too.

But it does seem like Charlie Condon's breakthrough 2024 season in college may have been a tiny bit of fool's gold, as he has struggled mightily so far in the minors and he was the one that everyone was assuming the Reds would pick at #2. (I'm not saying he won't figure it out, but the reason people wanted Condon is because they thought he would FLY through the minors and hit the major leagues this season. Unless he turns it around super fast, that likely will not happen).

So, even though Burns definitely looks like a star and we are lucky to have him, it would not have been foolish to draft a hitter either.

[samhain]

(05-17-2025, 03:16 PM)CJD Wrote: Burns may force their hand to promote him faster than they even did with Lowder last year.

Lowder started in A+ in 2024, moved to AA midway through the season and then had just one start in AAA before being called up the majors. Granted, his call up may have been accelerated by need at the major league level, but he performed very well there.

Lowder breezed through A+ with a 2.48 ERA in 5 starts (25.1 IP), so they moved him up to AA at the beginning of May (similar to what they did with Burns). He did struggle a little bit in AA initially, with an ERA of 7.14 in his first 8 starts (34 IP) in AA. 

His second set of 8 starts in AA went much better, with an ERA of 2.08 over 43.1 IP. 

They called him up to AAA in August, he threw a single scoreless 6 IP game and then hey called him up to the majors where he was unsustainably good.

They are taking Burns through a similar path this season with him getting 3 starts in A+ where he seemed clearly too much for that level of prospect, with an ERA of 3.08 through 11.2 IP in 3 starts, before they moved him up to AA.

The big difference with Burns is he has not had that rough start to AA that Lowder had. He has made 4 starts so far and he's been just as impressive against AA hitting as he was against A+ hitting, and has been even better at limiting walks and runs with a BB/9 of 0.95 and an ERA of 1.89. His K/9 dropped slightly from 15.4 to 13.3, but 13.3 would still be extraordinarily elite in MLB (for reference, Hunter has a K/9 of 12.02 this season). 

If he keeps up this dominance, I could see him debuting in the majors by mid June. Let's predict June 19th as the earliest realistic date, just for fun. That would be approximately 6 starts from now, which would mean he completed 4 more starts in AA (to match Lowder's 8 dominant starts), plus 1 in AAA.

Would that be best for his development? That's for Derek Johnson to decide. It'll also depend a lot on injuries in the majors, as we have 4 starters that aren't going anywhere if healthy (Greene, Lodolo, Singer, Abbott). Martinez could theoretically be moved to the bullpen, but he has been really good over his last few starts, so it will likely take an injury or two to see Burns in the majors before August. But it sure would be an exciting thing to see.


For the record, Jac Caglianone was selected after Burns and he looks like a great young hitter so far in his short career, with a .952 OPS so far this season.

Also worth noting, Nick Kurtz, the pre season favorite to go #1 overall in 2024 before missing a portion of the season due to injury (and thus being passed by Condon and Brazzana) has already debuted in the majors after having an OPS of 1.120 in 147 minor league plate appearances. I think he was a case of the Athletics just needing a bat on their major league roster, but he was definitely impressing in the minor leagues too.

But it does seem like Charlie Condon's breakthrough 2024 season in college may have been a tiny bit of fool's gold, as he has struggled mightily so far in the minors and he was the one that everyone was assuming the Reds would pick at #2. (I'm not saying he won't figure it out, but the reason people wanted Condon is because they thought he would FLY through the minors and hit the major leagues this season. Unless he turns it around super fast, that likely will not happen).

So, even though Burns definitely looks like a star and we are lucky to have him, it would not have been foolish to draft a hitter either.

Don't disagree.  Especially with a team that is so bad at developing power hitters.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

Chase Burns has been on a 60 pitch limit. He's averaging 4.1 innings per start this year.

They'd have to do some REAL stretching out of him very quickly to see him in the majors this year, unless you bring him up to be a bullpen pitcher which seems like a waste for your top prospect.

Plus his career high in college was 100 innings and his high before that was 80.1 innings. That puts him around a probably limit of 140 innings this year.