Over/Under Bengals 2025 Season Edition

[jj22]

Take the Over / Under for the following

Burrow - 5000 passing yards
Burrow - 45 TD
Chase Brown - 1500 yards from scrimmage
Trey Hendrickson - 13 sacks
Joseph Ossai - 8 sacks
Geno Stone - 6 INT
Myles Murphy - 4 sacks
Jamarr Chase - 1750 yards
Jamarr Chase - 15 TD's
Tee Higgins - 15 TD's
Bengals Oline -  45 sacks
Bengals Scoring Offense - Top 5
Bengals total Offense - Top 5
Bengals Scoring Defense - Top 15
Logan Wilson - 5 INT.

[*ochocincos*]

(6 hours ago)jj22 Wrote: Take the Over / Under for the following

Burrow - 5000 passing yards - UNDER (~4500)
Burrow - 45 TD - UNDER (35-40)
Chase Brown - 1500 yards from scrimmage - ABOVE (~1600)
Trey Hendrickson - 13 sacks - UNDER (12)
Joseph Ossai - 8 sacks - UNDER (6-7)
Geno Stone - 6 INT - UNDER (3-4)
Myles Murphy - 4 sacks - UNDER (2.5-3.5)
Jamarr Chase - 1750 yards - UNDER (~1400)
Jamarr Chase - 15 TD's - UNDER (~12)
Tee Higgins - 15 TD's - UNDER (~10)
Bengals Oline - 45 sacks - UNDER (~40)
Bengals Scoring Offense - Top 5 - YES
Bengals total Offense - Top 5 - NO (6-10)
Bengals Scoring Defense - Top 15 - NO (16-20)
Logan Wilson - 5 INT. - UNDER (3-4)

Responses in BOLD.

[J24]

(6 hours ago)jj22 Wrote: Take the Over / Under for the following

Burrow - 5000 passing yards- over
Burrow - 45 TD-over
Chase Brown - 1500 yards from scrimmage- under 
Trey Hendrickson - 13 sacks- under
Joseph Ossai - 8 sacks,- push
Geno Stone - 6 INT-under
Myles Murphy - 4 sacks-inder
Jamarr Chase - 1750 yards-over
Jamarr Chase - 15 TD's- over
Tee Higgins - 15 TD's-under
Bengals Oline - less than 45 sacks-under
Bengals Scoring Offense - Top 5-over
Bengals total Offense - Top 5-over
Bengals Scoring Defense - Top 15-under
Logan Wilson - 5 INT.-under

[*rfaulk34*]

(6 hours ago)jj22 Wrote: Take the Over / Under for the following

Burrow - 5000 passing yards UNDER
Burrow - 45 TD UNDER
Chase Brown - 1500 yards from scrimmage OVER
Trey Hendrickson - 13 sacks UNDER
Joseph Ossai - 8 sacks UNDER
Geno Stone - 6 INT UNDER
Myles Murphy - 4 sacks OVER
Jamarr Chase - 1750 yards UNDER
Jamarr Chase - 15 TD's UNDER
Tee Higgins - 15 TD's UNDER
Bengals Oline - less than 45 sacks OVER
Bengals Scoring Offense - Top 5 OVER
Bengals total Offense - Top 5 OVER running game will always keep this lower
Bengals Scoring Defense - Top 15 UNDER
Logan Wilson - 5 INT. PUSH i can see exactly 5

Answers in bold. 

[HarleyDog]

(6 hours ago)rfaulk34 Wrote: Answers in bold. 

Chase Brown over 1500?

[Bengalion]

(6 hours ago)jj22 Wrote: Take the Over / Under for the following

Burrow - 5000 passing yards - UNDER
Burrow - 45 TD - UNDER
Chase Brown - 1500 yards from scrimmage - UNDER
Trey Hendrickson - 13 sacks - UNDER
Joseph Ossai - 8 sacks - UNDER
Geno Stone - 6 INT - UNDER
Myles Murphy - 4 sacks - UNDER
Jamarr Chase - 1750 yards - UNDER
Jamarr Chase - 15 TD's - UNDER
Tee Higgins - 15 TD's - UNDER
Bengals Oline - less than 45 sacks - OVER
Bengals Scoring Offense - Top 5 - OVER
Bengals total Offense - Top 5 - UNDER
Bengals Scoring Defense - Top 15 - UNDER 
Logan Wilson - 5 INT. - UNDER

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(6 hours ago)jj22 Wrote: Take the Over / Under for the following

Burrow - 5000 passing yards  UNDER
Burrow - 45 TD  UNDER
Chase Brown - 1500 yards from scrimmage  UNDER (because other RBs will steal touches)
Trey Hendrickson - 13 sacks *Not A Bengal*
Joseph Ossai - 8 sacks UNDER
Geno Stone - 6 INT  UNDER
Myles Murphy - 4 sacks  OVER
Jamarr Chase - 1750 yards  UNDER  (That's a real high mark, only has been reached 3 times in the last 5 years combined.)
Jamarr Chase - 15 TD's  UNDER
Tee Higgins - 15 TD's  UNDER (Chase last year is the only person to pass 15 receiving TDs in the last 3 years.)
Bengals Oline - less than 45 sacks *Phrased strangely for Over/Under, but Bengals OL allows less than 45 sacks.*
Bengals Scoring Offense - Top 5 UNDER 
Bengals total Offense - Top 5 UNDER
Bengals Scoring Defense - Top 15 UNDER
Logan Wilson - 5 INT. UNDER

These are an awful lot of really high marks to surpass.

[*psychdoctor*]

(6 hours ago)jj22 Wrote: Take the Over / Under for the following

Burrow - 5000 passing yards Under
Burrow - 45 TD  Over
Chase Brown - 1500 yards from scrimmage Over
Trey Hendrickson - 13 sacks Traded
Joseph Ossai - 8 sacks  Under
Geno Stone - 6 INT Under
Myles Murphy - 4 sacks Over
Jamarr Chase - 1750 yards Under
Jamarr Chase - 15 TD's Under
Tee Higgins - 15 TD's  Under
Bengals Oline - less than 45 sacks  Over
Bengals Scoring Offense - Top 5 Over
Bengals total Offense - Top 5  Over
Bengals Scoring Defense - Top 15  under
Logan Wilson - 5 INT.  Under

I think the Bengals offense will be tops in League 

[basballguy]

Are these official sportsbook over/under? If i'm a betting man i take the under on almost every single one of these.

[jj22]

I feel like if Yoshi steps up, Tee stays healthy, and they use Geseski the way they did the last 5 games or so, Burrow may reach 5000 yards.

If Herbert can....

If Winston can! 

In 16 game seasons...

[jj22]

(3 hours ago)basballguy Wrote: Are these official sportsbook over/under?  If i'm a betting man i take the under on almost every single one of these.

No definitely unofficial. 

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(3 hours ago)basballguy Wrote: Are these official sportsbook over/under?  If i'm a betting man i take the under on almost every single one of these.

Nah, these are basically all "if it's over, they're career bests" numbers. 

[jj22]

(2 hours ago)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Nah, these are basically all "if it's over, they're career bests" numbers. 

For some...

But we need breakout seasons from some players if we want to see the Bengals reach their goal.... 

Which ones specifically do you consider outrageous or unobtainable? 

[jj22]

Feel free to throw out some over/unders for some players/groups not mentioned....

Yoshi
CTB (int)
Burton
Interior Lineman (sacks)

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(2 hours ago)jj22 Wrote: For some...

But we need breakout seasons from some players if we want to see the Bengals reach their goal.... 

Which ones specifically do you consider outrageous or unobtainable? 

10 of the 15 would be career/Taylor era bests.

The only ones that aren't career/era bests are... 
Hendrickson >13 sacks (but he's currently holding out)
Stone >6 INT
Chase >15 TDs
Bengals OL <45 sacks (allowing 44 in 2022 is the only time in the Burrow era)
Bengals Scoring Defense >15th (2022 is the only time in the Taylor era)

[jj22]

We got career bests from plyers in a 9-8 record year...

If we somehow went 12-5, 13-4, 15-2...... wouldn't' there likely be more career / era bests?

I guess I didn't' approach this with the ideal that it would be a down year. But I did think these were somewhat reasonable. 

Chase total yards would be miraculous as you stated, but there are players (few) who have done it and Chase is certainly in that "few" talent of players that can. 

[*bfine32*]

Just because I like to be that guy:

Which is better Over or Under top 5?

How can one be better than Top 5? Doesn't that cover 1-5

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(2 hours ago)jj22 Wrote: We got career bests from plyers in a 9-8 record year...

If we somehow went 12-5, 13-4, 15-2...... wouldn't' there likely be more career / era bests?

I guess I didn't' approach this with the ideal that it would be a down year. But I did think these were somewhat reasonable. 

Chase total yards would be miraculous as you stated, but there are players (few) who have done it and Chase is certainly in that "few" talent of players that can. 

Not setting career bests a year after setting career bests is not a "down year".

There has only been 1 5k passing season in the last 3 years and Burrow didn't reach it despite leading the league in pass attempts.
You have to go back 5 years to find someone who threw more than 45 TDs.
Ossai has 9.5 combined sacks in 4 years.
Chase won the triple-crown with a QB that lead the league in pass attempts and didn't reach 1750 yards. Only reached 3 times in the last 5 years.
Over 15 TDs for Tee would be a 60% increase on his career high last year. His second highest total was 7.
Over 5 INT for Wilson would be 50% better than his career high. A non-DB hasn't had 5 INT since 2019. A non-DB hasn't had over 5 INT since 2013.


It's not a matter of a down year, it's a matter of a ton of guys could have amazing years and they still wouldn't reach the numbers you set because they're so high.

A better record doesn't automatically mean better stats. If your defense is a top-15 scoring defense for instance, you don't NEED to lead the league in pass attempts which means you don't reach 5k, 45 TD, or 1750 yards, or either of the 15 TDs because that's all passing stats while you'd be running the ball late with a lead rather than passing to catch up. There's a reason why Stafford and Calvin Johnson put up huge numbers while not winning on the Lions.

[jj22]

(2 hours ago)bfine32 Wrote: Just because I like to be that guy:

Which is better Over or Under top 5?

How can one be better than Top 5? Doesn't that cover 1-5

I would say taking the "over"  (better than) would be better than top 5.... I'm not a gambler so not sure if that is correct or not.

[jj22]

(1 hour ago)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Not setting career bests a year after setting career bests is not a "down year".

There has only been 1 5k passing season in the last 3 years and Burrow didn't reach it despite leading the league in pass attempts.
You have to go back 5 years to find someone who threw more than 45 TDs.
Ossai has 9.5 combined sacks in 4 years.
Chase won the triple-crown with a QB that lead the league in pass attempts and didn't reach 1750 yards. Only reached 3 times in the last 5 years.
Over 15 TDs for Tee would be a 60% increase on his career high last year. His second highest total was 7.
Over 5 INT for Wilson would be 50% better than his career high. A non-DB hasn't had 5 INT since 2019. A non-DB hasn't had over 5 INT since 2013.


It's not a matter of a down year, it's a matter of a ton of guys could have amazing years and they still wouldn't reach the numbers you set because they're so high.

A better record doesn't automatically mean better stats. If your defense is a top-15 scoring defense for instance, you don't NEED to lead the league in pass attempts which means you don't reach 5k, 45 TD, or 1750 yards, or either of the 15 TDs because that's all passing stats while you'd be running the ball late with a lead rather than passing to catch up. There's a reason why Stafford and Calvin Johnson put up huge numbers while not winning on the Lions.

You don't think Tee can get 5 more TD's if he plays a full 17 games?

Chase a mere 50 more yards?

Ossai closed the season with a 6 game sack streak. Or at least there was a stretch where he got a sack per game for 5-6 games.... If he starts the season healthy you don't think he can get 2 more? Hell you banked on Murphy getting more than 4...

If Qb's were getting 5k seasons out of 16 games..... And we have a generational talent at QB should we expect him to reach heights only few have reached?  

Wilson from all reports is primed for a big year. Don't bet against him having a career year.