Pat's Statistics On Teen Births

[BFritz21]

Pat claims to know a lot about high school kids because he sees them in school, which is a controlled setting, even more-so for him since he's a teacher, and claims that teens are having less sex and there's less teen births because of national statistics.

Hearing from teens in Northern Kentucky and Cincinnati, as well as talking with parents, coaches, and younger adults who are closer to teens, I always disagreed but he laughed at me and pulled up statistics about national teen pregnancy rates being down as proof of him being right. This never seemed right to me because I'm a realist, so I decided to look further into the statistics and see why they seemed so off.

As it turns out, Maryland just has a low teenage pregnancy rate, being only one of ten states with a percentage lower than 20, and Kentucky has the 6th highest. Furthermore, since I present in Cincinnati a lot (probably even more-so than Northern Kentucky), I decided to look at the city's rates, and found out that, not only are they not dropping at a rate as high as Maryland (or other areas), Cincinnati's teen birth rates are actually ABOVE the national average.

So all of his bullshit about "oh, I spend so much time with them daily and they're so much better and these national statistics prove it," cannot be applied to all places and you can't take the things he posts at face value.

[Beaker]

I believe that conclusion works both ways.

[Sabretooth]

(01-17-2016, 01:10 PM)Beaker Wrote: I believe that conclusion works both ways.

Well done Beaker.

[BFritz21]

(01-17-2016, 01:10 PM)Beaker Wrote: I believe that conclusion works both ways.

That you can't take things at face value?

Ok.

What am I judging by face value?

I'm using statistics and real world observations and real world examples from high school kids.

[CKwi88]

[magikod]

What do we have here ladies and gentlemen...

[MrRager]

(01-17-2016, 12:31 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: Pat claims to know a lot about high school kids because he sees them in school, which is a controlled setting, even more-so for him since he's a teacher, and claims that teens are having less sex and there's less teen births because of national statistics.

Hearing from teens in Northern Kentucky and Cincinnati, as well as talking with parents, coaches, and younger adults who are closer to teens, I always disagreed but he laughed at me and pulled up statistics about national teen pregnancy rates being down as proof of him being right.  This never seemed right to me because I'm a realist, so I decided to look further into the statistics and see why they seemed so off.

As it turns out, Maryland just has a low teenage pregnancy rate, being only one of ten states with a percentage lower than 20,  and Kentucky has the 6th highest.  Furthermore, since I present in Cincinnati a lot (probably even more-so than Northern Kentucky), I decided to look at the city's rates, and found out that, not only are they not dropping at a rate as high as Maryland (or other areas), Cincinnati's teen birth rates are actually ABOVE the national average.

So all of his bullshit about "oh, I spend so much time with them daily and they're so much better and these national statistics prove it," cannot be applied to all places and you can't take the things he posts at face value.

Well, the statistics do prove it. Also, you seem to be a little off here with your logic. It doesn't matter that Cincinnati is above average to the national, but how it compares to itself from years past. Have the birth rates gone down in Cincinnati or up? 

Teens are getting pregnant less, as a whole, across the entire country and anyone saying otherwise is a straight up liar. 

[CKwi88]

I'll just leave this here.

https://thenationalcampaign.org/data/state/kentucky

[MrRager]

(01-17-2016, 03:31 PM)CKwi88 Wrote: I'll just leave this here.

https://thenationalcampaign.org/data/state/kentucky

Good link. I liked this part:

"Teen pregnancy and birth rates are at historic lows and there has been impressive progress on both fronts in all 50 states. As of 2014, the Kentucky teen birth rate was 35.3 births per 1,000 teen girls (age 15-19). Since 1991, the teen birth rate has declined by 49%. In the past year alone, the decline was 11%. In 2010, public spending on teen childbearing in Kentucky totaled $158 million.

The teen pregnancy rate, which includes all pregnancies rather than just those that resulted in a birth, has also fallen steeply. As of 2010 (the most recent data available), the rate was 62 pregnancies per 1,000 teen girls (age 15-19); some 8,990 teen pregnancies. The teen pregnancy rate has declined by 35% since 1988. Since 2008, the teen pregnancy rate has changed by -13%."

[HarleyDog]

[fredtoast]

(01-17-2016, 01:40 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: I'm using statistics and real world observations and real world examples from high school kids.

Even the stats you posted showed teen birth rates dropping in the Cincinnati area.

So what exactly is your point?  Why post stats that prove you are wrong?

[BFritz21]

(01-17-2016, 05:34 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Even the stats you posted showed teen birth rates dropping in the Cincinnati area.

So what exactly is your point?  Why post stats that prove you are wrong?

I guess I'm trying to learn from you and post things proving that you're wrong (I know you'll say "it never happened," so I'll post now that you posted that I said chemotherapy never existed, I pointed out that I never said it didn't exist, then, at a later time, you posted that you never said that, and provided a link to prove that you were right when it actually proved that you were lying).

The point was that Cincinnati is above the national average, meaning that, just because Pat's state has a low rate, it doesn't mean that I was wrong and he was so right because he spent 180 hours with each child individually (which was impossible), and that his persistent claims that you can apply the same stats to the entire nation are wrong.

So I wasn't wrong.

[CKwi88]

(01-17-2016, 06:23 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: I guess I'm trying to learn from you and post things proving that you're wrong (I know you'll say "it never happened," so I'll post now that you posted that I said chemotherapy never existed, I pointed out that I never said it didn't exist, then, at a later time, you posted that you never said that, and provided a link to prove that you were right when it actually proved that you were lying).

The point was that Cincinnati is above the national average, meaning that, just because Pat's state has a low rate, it doesn't mean that I was wrong and he was so right because he spent 180 hours with each child individually (which was impossible), and that his persistent claims that you can apply the same stats to the entire nation are wrong.

So I wasn't wrong.

If Pat's argument was that kids are having less sex and there are less teen births (that's in your OP) then the fact that Cincinnati is currently above the national average is completely irrelevant. It does absolutely nothing to disprove Pat's statement that teen pregnancy and births are on a downward trend.

So no, you're not wrong, you're just talking about something else. 

[WeezyBengal]

Pardon my ignorance, but who is Pat?

[jfkbengals]

(01-17-2016, 07:39 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: Pardon my ignorance, but who is Pat?

[Belsnickel]

After the Steelers loss, this epic fail has brought laughter back to me.

[BFritz21]

(01-17-2016, 07:18 PM)CKwi88 Wrote: If Pat's argument was that kids are having less sex and there are less teen births (that's in your OP) then the fact that Cincinnati is currently above the national average is completely irrelevant. It does absolutely nothing to disprove Pat's statement that teen pregnancy and births are on a downward trend.

So no, you're not wrong, you're just talking about something else. 

Actually, Pat's argument was that I don't know what I'm talking about and my observations, information gathered from teachers, students, and coaches, along with my experiences of hearing students tell me were wrong because of the national statistics and because he spends a certain amount of hours individually with each student (which was mathematically impossible) that he knows how students around here are and that statistics are accepted for every area in the United States.

Cincinnati being above the national average is completely relevant because seeing how things in my area are is my reality, whereas Pat's theories about teens being overall better because of his observations can't be applied for everywhere because his state has a substantially lower rate than the rest of the country.

Maybe my area's rates are higher, but I was only speaking from my observations, whereas Pat was claiming that I was wrong about my area and Cincinnati because of national statistics.

[MrRager]

(01-18-2016, 02:25 AM)BFritz21 Wrote: Actually, Pat's argument was that I don't know what I'm talking about and my observations, information gathered from teachers, students, and coaches, along with my experiences of hearing students tell me were wrong because of the national statistics and because he spends a certain amount of hours individually with each student (which was mathematically impossible) that he knows how students around here are and that statistics are accepted for every area in the United States.

Cincinnati being above the national average is completely relevant because seeing how things in my area are is my reality, whereas Pat's theories about teens being overall better because of his observations can't be applied for everywhere because his state has a substantially lower rate than the rest of the country.

Maybe my area's rates are higher, but I was only speaking from my observations, whereas Pat was claiming that I was wrong about my area and Cincinnati because of national statistics.

Trying to base a major claim based off anecdotal evidence in inherently wrong.

So you observe a high rate of teen pregnancy is what you are saying, correct? Well, according to the data, you've probably observed less and less each year as the rate is dropping. No matter how you try to frame or spin the argument, teens in fact are getting pregnant less often (which has literally nothing to do how Cincinnati compares to the national average) and kids are staying away from drugs more. Education has moved kids in the right direction and a few personal stories suggesting otherwise do not change this fact. 

[fredtoast]

(01-17-2016, 06:23 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: I guess I'm trying to learn from you and post things proving that you're wrong (I know you'll say "it never happened," so I'll post now that you posted that I said chemotherapy never existed, I pointed out that I never said it didn't exist, then, at a later time, you posted that you never said that, and provided a link to prove that you were right when it actually proved that you were lying).

Thanks for posting that pathetic lie in another thread where you are clearly wrong, but can not see it.

[BFritz21]

(01-18-2016, 02:59 AM)MrRager Wrote: Trying to base a major claim based off anecdotal evidence in inherently wrong.

So you observe a high rate of teen pregnancy is what you are saying, correct? Well, according to the data, you've probably observed less and less each year as the rate is dropping. No matter how you try to frame or spin the argument, teens in fact are getting pregnant less often (which has literally nothing to do how Cincinnati compares to the national average) and kids are staying away from drugs more. Education has moved kids in the right direction and a few personal stories suggesting otherwise do not change this fact. 

It's not anecdotal evidence because it is based off observations, talking with students, and talking with teachers and parents who are around the kids more.

 

(01-18-2016, 12:42 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Thanks for posting that pathetic lie in another thread where you are clearly wrong, but can not see it.

lol!  

You're the most pathetic poster on here because you continuously lie and think we're all too stupid to see it!'

How am I wrong?!  That is EXACTLY what happened!  Which part are you saying is wrong this time?!

I'd say that you're delusional, but I think it's more that you're just a liar!