Kaepernick Trade For Dalton?

[Stormborn]

(06-10-2015, 09:26 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: I agree, but for every Cam excuse, there's one for Dalton as well. AJ essentially missed 5-6 games, Sanu led the NFL in drops (more than Benjamin despite fewer targets), and Olsen is way better than Gresh. Our run game was better though, no doubt.

I honestly think both QB's are prime rebound candidates. Dalton will have healthy receivers and Cam will have a more experienced Benjamin (who is a great talent, despite the drops) to go along with Funchess and an improved o-line. They also drafted a RB in the 5th round who could wind up helping.

Obviously we agree that Cam is better than Dalton, I guess we just disagree by how much. 

Cam has his faults for sure, but I try to compare them in equal situations and scenarios.

But yeah, both should rebound statistically with new pieces coming together. 

[Stormborn]

(06-10-2015, 09:26 PM)Brownshoe Wrote: Brandon Lafell was their #2, and he just won a SB last year with the pats (he had over 1k yards not even being their #1). He has had Gregg Olson too, who imo is one of the best TEs in the league. His running backs have been waaaay better than ours. Last year was the only year that Cam didn't have that great of a run because of injuries.

Olsen's solid for sure, but Lafell wasn't good enough to help his QB. He needed an elite one to produce.

I wouldn't say the RBs have been waaaay better, but you can't deny he's still an intrigue part of their running game, mainly because neither one of them could consistently handle a full workload.

[Brownshoe]

(06-10-2015, 09:49 PM)Stormborn Wrote: Olsen's solid for sure, but Lafell wasn't good enough to help his QB. He needed an elite one to produce.

I wouldn't say the RBs have been waaaay better, but you can't deny he's still an intrigue part of their running game, mainly because neither one of them could consistently handle a full workload.

From 2011-2013 I would think it would be easy to say that their running backs have been way better than BJGE. In 2013 Deangelo had a 4.2 YPA, and BJGE had 3.4. 2012 Deangelo had 4.3, and BJGE had 3.9 (which was a lot closer than I thought it would have been).

Lafell wasn't even that bad for Cam. He was for sure better than Sanu, and IMO comparable to MJ in 2013.

[Stormborn]

(06-10-2015, 09:57 PM)Brownshoe Wrote: From 2011-2013 I would think it would be easy to say that their running backs have been way better than BJGE. In 2013 Deangelo had a 4.2 YPA, and BJGE had 3.4. 2012 Deangelo had 4.3, and BJGE had 3.9 (which was a lot closer than I thought it would have been).

Lafell wasn't even that bad for Cam. He was for sure better than Sanu, and IMO comparable to MJ in 2013.

I thought a better running game was ultimately gonna help diminish Dalton's INTs, but instead they increased per attempt. It helps to have for sure from a total offensive perspective but it didn't solve his biggest issue. 

II'll repeat what I said and expand a bit more, Cam would be more productive and consistent than Andy here because hhe's mmore talented and would have a better offensive line, still have a great #1, on paper a good TE, and a great running duo.

[Brownshoe]

(06-10-2015, 10:06 PM)Stormborn Wrote: I thought a better running game was ultimately gonna help diminish Dalton's INTs, but instead they increased per attempt. It helps to have for sure from a total offensive perspective but it didn't solve his biggest issue.

A lack of a receiving core can hurt your INTs too. All the other teams defense had to do last year was double cover Sanu, and stop the run game, and we had no one else who could consistently step up to make a play. I think that next year when Dalton has a healthy receiving core, and a good run game he will reduce his INTs by a lot. I honestly think that we will be one of the best offenses in the league next year especially when the other defenses in our division has (on paper) gotten a lot worse.

[Stormborn]

(06-10-2015, 10:14 PM)Brownshoe Wrote: A lack of a receiving core can hurt your INTs too. All the other teams defense had to do last year was double cover Sanu, and stop the run game, and we had no one else who could consistently step up to make a play. I think that next year when Dalton has a healthy receiving core, and a good run game he will reduce his INTs by a lot. I honestly think that we will be one of the best offenses in the league next year especially when the other defenses in our division has (on paper) gotten a lot worse.

When and if all the peices come together, I believe he has the abilty to even out his consistency a bit, however, he is who he is. He's not the best decision maker in the world, heck neither is Cam. I think you just have to live with his 16-18 INTs a year but try to maximize his production at the same time. You can limit his attempts but you can't limit what he can do with them.

Riding Jeremy a whole year for around 250 carries should help ease the load off him, it should reduce the long 3rd downs he has to convert, but it doesn't make him a better pocket passer than what he is, he has to improve that himself, and by this year, we'll know for sure.

[Brownshoe]

(06-10-2015, 09:21 PM)Stormborn Wrote: But even a casual fan knows there Oline outside of Khalil has been at best below average in pass pro, they're lucky Cam's an athletic freak.

Yeah, Cams OL for pass blocking hasn't been very good, but overall his OL hasn't been that bad. Actually the Panthers have had a top 10 overall OL 2 out of 4 years (according to PFF) he was on the team, Dalton had a top 10 OL 3 out of 4 years (according to PFF). You also have to gauge how much their release time helps their OL. Dalton releases the ball almost twice as fast as Newton, making it harder for his OL to protect him. (Dalton 1.53 release time, and Cam 2.82 release time according to PFF) Dalton had the fastest release time in the NFL with at least 100 drop backs too.

[Stormborn]

(06-10-2015, 10:53 PM)Brownshoe Wrote: Yeah, Cams OL for pass blocking hasn't been very good, but overall his OL hasn't been that bad. Actually the Panthers have had a top 10 overall OL 2 out of 4 years he was on the team, Dalton had a top 10 OL 3 out of 4 years. You also have to gauge how much their release time helps their OL. Dalton releases the ball almost twice as fast as Newton, making it harder for his OL to protect him. (Dalton 1.53 release time, and Cam 2.82 release time according to PFF)

... Yeah, it's not been good. It doesn't really matter to the QB if his Oline's run blocking is good when he drops back, his pass pro has given up over 150 sacks in his career.

The release times can be attributed to some degree to the type of offenses they play, but this is a Dalton plus for sure.

[Shake n Blake]

(06-10-2015, 09:31 PM)Brownshoe Wrote: Eh, I think Cam is good, but I would disagree with him being better than Dalton. I think Cam is a lot of hype. He has regressed every year, and he's only had better stats than Dalton his rookie year. On top of that he's been working with better talent, and a much softer division.

I don't think Dalton is a whole lot better than Cam, but I think Dalton is slightly better.

Outside of pass yards and rush yards, I don't think Cam has regressed every year.

Total TD's:
2011: 35
2012: 27
2013: 30
2014: 23

Passer rating:
2011: 84.5
2012: 86.2
2013: 88.8
2014: 82.1

His passer ratings have almost mirrored Dalton's. His production was down some last year as he battled through injury while breaking in a rookie #1 WR. He's still the same Cam, he just needs to get healthy.

You're right that Cam hasn't had a better year than Andy since they were rookies. Dalton actually has more total TD's (89) than Cam (80) during that span and a higher passer rating (86.7 to 85.8). Although I don't think the difference in weaponry has been huge, I have to give the edge to Dalton just for having AJ Green.

Like I said to Stormborn, the production has been close. I just feel that Cam is all around more talented. The numbers for both QB's are so close that they don't really help either side of the argument. Just personal preference really. I'll take the QB who had the physical talent to be selected #1 overall.

[Shake n Blake]

(06-10-2015, 10:26 PM)Stormborn Wrote: When and if all the peices come together, I believe he has the abilty to even out his consistency a bit, however, he is who he is. He's not the best decision maker in the world, heck neither is Cam. I think you just have to live with his 16-18 INTs a year but try to maximize his production at the same time. You can limit his attempts but you can't limit what he can do with them.

Riding Jeremy a whole year for around 250 carries should help ease the load off him, it should reduce the long 3rd downs he has to convert, but it doesn't make him a better pocket passer than what he is, he has to improve that himself, and by this year, we'll know for sure.

I agree with all of this. Dalton is just prone to a few too many head scratcher throws each year. It's been proven you can get a lot of production from him, but we're probably going to have to live with 16-18 INT's each year. Fortunately, Dalton is one of the best QB's in the league at not fumbling.

It doesn't completely make up for the INT's, but it helps. For example, Newton has fumbled 30 times in 4 years. Dalton has fumbled 19 times. Palmer has average 6.9 fumbles per 16 games, Dalton has averaged 4.8. Pig Ben has averaged 7.9.

I'd be shocked if Dalton doesn't rebound with healthy receivers and a strong run game, but if he doesn't, they can cut bait with Dalton next March.

[Brownshoe]

(06-10-2015, 11:02 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: You're right that Cam hasn't had a better year than Andy since they were rookies. Dalton actually has more total TD's (89) than Cam (80) during that span and a higher passer rating (86.7 to 85.8). Although I don't think the difference in weaponry has been huge, I have to give the edge to Dalton just for having AJ Green.

Steve Smith isn't that much worse than Green (especially when Green was a rookie / 2nd year receiver), and Cams TE, and RBs have been consistently better than Daltons.

2011
Smith > Green
Brandon Lafell > Jerome Simpson
Gregg Olsen > Gresham
Panthers RBs >> Benson

2012
Green > Smith
Brandon Lafell >> Hawkins
Gregg Olsen >>> Gresham
Panthers RBs >> BJGE

2013
Green >> Smith
Jones > Brandon Lafell
Greg Olsen >>> Gresham
Panthers RBs >>> BJGE

2014
Green (when healthy) >>> Benjamin >> Sanu
Sanu > Cotchery > Tate
Greg Olsen >>>> Gresham
Hill >>> Panthers RBs

[GodFather]

(06-10-2015, 11:13 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: I'd be shocked if Dalton doesn't rebound with healthy receivers and a strong run game, but if he doesn't, they can cut bait with Dalton next March.

Do you really see the Bengals moving on from him next year if he plays this coming year exactly like last year? I don't. I think they'll keep him around in the same fashion they keep Marvin around.

[*rfaulk34*]

(06-10-2015, 11:13 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: I agree with all of this. Dalton is just prone to a few too many head scratcher throws each year. It's been proven you can get a lot of production from him, but we're probably going to have to live with 16-18 INT's each year. Fortunately, Dalton is one of the best QB's in the league at not fumbling.

It doesn't completely make up for the INT's, but it helps. For example, Newton has fumbled 30 times in 4 years. Dalton has fumbled 19 times. Palmer has average 6.9 fumbles per 16 games, Dalton has averaged 4.8. Pig Ben has averaged 7.9.

I'd be shocked if Dalton doesn't rebound with healthy receivers and a strong run game, but if he doesn't, they can cut bait with Dalton next March.

I'm not real interested in commenting on Dalton right now. Just wanted to post here to move back ahead of Fred, in 8th place.

And i'm coming after you...

[Shake n Blake]

(06-10-2015, 11:21 PM)Brownshoe Wrote: Steve Smith isn't that much worse than Green (especially when Green was a rookie / 2nd year receiver), and Cams TE, and RBs have been consistently better than Daltons.

2011
Smith > Green
Brandon Lafell > Jerome Simpson
Gregg Olsen > Gresham
Panthers RBs >> Benson

2012
Green > Smith
Brandon Lafell >> Hawkins
Gregg Olsen >>> Gresham
Panthers RBs >> BJGE

2013
Green >> Smith
Jones > Brandon Lafell
Greg Olsen >>> Gresham
Panthers RBs >>> BJGE

2014
Green (when healthy) >>> Benjamin >> Sanu
Sanu > Cotchery > Tate
Greg Olsen >>>> Gresham
Hill >>> Panthers RBs

The only year where I totally agree with you is 2011. Green progressed in year 2 and even though I think Steve Smith is a baller, he wasn't on AJ's level at that point. The Panther's run game wasn't really better than ours in '12 and '13 if you look at the overall numbers. Fact is, the Bengals and Panthers both had pretty crappy production from their RB's in those 2 years. The secondary WR's are about as equal as it gets.

So imo:

AJ Green > Steve Smith/Kelvin Benjamin
Simpson/Binns/Tate/MLJ/Sanu = Lafell/Cotchery
Gresham < Olsen
CedBen/BJGE/Gio/Hill = JStew/DWill/Mike Tolbert

I just don't see a ton of difference there as far as talent. Dalton had a better #1 WR, Newton had a better TE. The rest is a wash. Slight advantage Dalton, imo. 

[Shake n Blake]

(06-10-2015, 11:46 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: I'm not real interested in commenting on Dalton right now. Just wanted to post here to move back ahead of Fred, in 8th place.

And i'm coming after you...

Bring it. I'm off for a couple days, so I'll be posting quite a bit. 

[Brownshoe]

(06-10-2015, 11:47 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: The only year where I totally agree with you is 2011. Green progressed in year 2 and even though I think Steve Smith is a baller, he wasn't on AJ's level at that point. The Panther's run game wasn't really better than ours in '12 and '13 if you look at the overall numbers. Fact is, the Bengals and Panthers both had pretty crappy production from their RB's in those 2 years. The secondary WR's are about as equal as it gets.

So imo:

AJ Green > Steve Smith/Kelvin Benjamin
Simpson/Binns/Tate/MLJ/Sanu = Lafell/Cotchery
Gresham < Olsen
CedBen/BJGE/Gio/Hill = JStew/DWill/Mike Tolbert

I just don't see a ton of difference there as far as talent. Dalton had a better #1 WR, Newton had a better TE. The rest is a wash. Slight advantage Dalton, imo. 

Olsen is a ton better than Gresham though. Olsen just had 3 consecutive seasons with 800+ yards, and last year he had 1,000 yards. Gresham yards were 737 (2012), 458 (2013), and 460 (2014). Gresham also has a higher drop %, and Greg Olsen has had 1 Fumble the last 3 years, and Gresham has had 5 (and if you go back to 2011 and 2010 Gresham had 3 fumbles each of those years). Not to mention that Gresham causes much more penalties than Olsen. Personally I think Olsen is one of the most underrated TE's in the league (I think he's a top 5 TE right now).

[Shake n Blake]

(06-11-2015, 12:00 AM)Brownshoe Wrote: Olsen is a ton better than Gresham though. Olsen just had 3 consecutive seasons with 800+ yards, and last year he had 1,000 yards. Gresham yards were 737 (2012), 458 (2013), and 460 (2014). Gresham also has a higher drop %, and Greg Olsen has had 1 Fumble the last 3 years, and Gresham has had 5 (and if you go back to 2011 and 2010 Gresham had 3 fumbles each of those years). Not to mention that Gresham causes much more penalties than Olsen. Personally I think Olsen is one of the most underrated TE's in the league (I think he's a top 5 TE right now).

From 2011 to 2013, Gresham had 1791 yards and 15 TDs. Olsen had 2199 yards and 16 TDs.

Not a huge difference really. Olsen is definitely better, but last season was a bit of an anomaly for both he and Gresh.

I don't see Olsen getting 1000 yards again with Funchess on board, and I think Gresh is capable of a little better than 460 yards.

[Brownshoe]

(06-11-2015, 12:07 AM)Shake n Blake Wrote: From 2011 to 2013, Gresham had 1791 yards and 15 TDs. Olsen had 2199 yards and 16 TDs.

Not a huge difference really. Olsen is definitely better, but last season was a bit of an anomaly for both he and Gresh.

I don't see Olsen getting 1000 yards again with Funchess on board, and I think Gresh is capable of a little better than 460 yards.

From 2011 to 2014 Gresham had 2,251 yards 20 TDs, and 9 fumbles. Olsen had 3207 yards and 22 TDs, and 2 fumbles. I think that's quite a bit better.

[Shake n Blake]

(06-11-2015, 12:13 AM)Brownshoe Wrote: From 2011 to 2014 Gresham had 2,251 yards 20 TDs, and 9 fumbles. Olsen had 3207 yards and 22 TDs, and 2 fumbles. I think that's quite a bit better.

It's as if you didn't read my post. Do you not think that 2014 was a bit of an anomaly for both Olsen and Gresh?  It was easily Olsen's best season and easily Gresham's worst. Don't you think such a season skews the numbers a bit?

Lets look at this with some perspective. The Panthers obviously had to lean heavily on Olsen last year, with a rookie #1 WR and an unreliable #2.  There's a reason the Panthers drafted Devin Funchess early in the draft. They won't be relying on Olsen as much this year, trust me. 

If you ask any GM, QB or even any NFL fan if they'd rather have Green and Gresh or S.Smith/K.Benjamin and Olsen, AJ + Gresh would win in a landslide. 

[Brownshoe]

(06-11-2015, 02:56 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: It's as if you didn't read my post. Do you not think that 2014 was a bit of an anomaly for both Olsen and Gresh?  It was easily Olsen's best season and easily Gresham's worst. Don't you think such a season skews the numbers a bit?

Lets look at this with some perspective. The Panthers obviously had to lean heavily on Olsen last year, with a rookie #1 WR and an unreliable #2.  There's a reason the Panthers drafted Devin Funchess early in the draft. They won't be relying on Olsen as much this year, trust me. 

If you ask any GM, QB or even any NFL fan if they'd rather have Green and Gresh or S.Smith/K.Benjamin and Olsen, AJ + Gresh would win in a landslide. 

It wasn't that much of an anomaly for either. Olsen has been getting 800+ yards the last 3 years, and Gresh had ~500 yards the last 3 out of 4 years. Fresh has had two seasons back to back with 3 fumbles too. This isn't the first time either had those kind of numbers. You keep compairing just the #1 and the TE too. Cam has had an all around better offense around him most years. That fact is going to change soon though, because he's been losing guys, and next year we will have a much better offense.