1st 3 Picks?

[PDub80]

NEWS FLASH to guys thinking DT in the first: The DT position is so deep in this years draft that guys who would be 1st round talents in any other draft are projected to be there in the 4th round.

Out of the 18 highest rated Dlineman in the 2016 draft, 12 of them are DT/NT. The highest rated D lineman is a 7.2 the rest of the top 18 prospects go from a 6.8 (the highest a DT is is 6.5) to 5.8. Most of which are only separated by 0.1 to 0.2 of a grade http://www.nfl.com/draft/2016/tracker?icampaign=draft-sub_nav_bar-drafteventpage-tracker#dt-tabs:dt-by-position/dt-by-position-input:dl

What does this mean???: It means that if the Bengals go DT in round 1 they will be buying that commodity wayyyyy too early because they can get virtually the same grade of prospect much much later, while killing themselves at positions of actual immediate need in areas where the draft is weaker.

- WR & CB this year has a much more rapid drop off, meaning that talent is at a premium at that position in the 2016 draft. What would be smart for the Bengals to do would be to take a 6.0/5.9 WR (Corey Coleman, for example) or 6.0/5.9 CB (Eli Apple, for example) in the first, and then look to a less pressing need (LB) in the 2nd and still get a 6.0/5.7 type prospect (Fackrell, Jenkins, or Lee).

Then in the 3rd round grab a DT prospect. They will STILL be getting a prospect rating 5.8-6.2 - basically very little difference between that 3rd rounder and a 1st in terms of grade. There is absolutely no question that in 2016 that type of talent will be there in the 3rd or even 4th!

Going this route would give the Bengals premium talent at each of their first 3 picks and allowing them to have the highest average talent possible (going by NFL.com)  all while filling needs for depth.

- Obviously, if a guy falls and he is THAT much better you have to take him, regardless of position, but I don't think that matters at DT this year

[fredtoast]

(03-15-2016, 04:25 PM)PDub80 Wrote: Then in the 3rd round grab a DT prospect. They will STILL be getting a prospect rating 5.8-6.2 - basically very little difference between that 3rd rounder and a 1st in terms of grade. There is absolutely no question that in 2016 that type of talent will be there in the 3rd or even 4th!

Actually if all these DTs are ranked higher then every other team in the league will also be taking them higher.

No way you can say (let alone guarantee) that we get just as good of a player in the third or fourth round as in the first.

[Stormborn]

We need DT, WR and LB talent the most right now, so those should be the 3 positions we should target first.

[BengalChris]

(03-15-2016, 05:21 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Actually if all these DTs are ranked higher then every other team in the league will also be taking them higher.

No way you can say (let alone guarantee) that we get just as good of a player in the third or fourth round as in the first.

I agree. I don't want another project DL man. Had enough of that. We need someone who can come in and contribute as part of the rotation.

[BengalFanInNJ]

I agree about grabbing a DT in the 2nd round. DT is very deep in this draft and there SHOULD be a solid player available. That said, there's always a chance on a
"run" on DT's in the latter part of the 2nd round with trades.

They better grab Leonte Caroo though. They need to replace the Rutgers guy they lost.

[PDub80]

(03-15-2016, 05:21 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Actually if all these DTs are ranked higher then every other team in the league will also be taking them higher.

No way you can say (let alone guarantee) that we get just as good of a player in the third or fourth round as in the first.

That's not how supply and demand works, Fred. There is a high supply of high-quality and, as such, there will not be a hurry to take one. Where there will be a hurry is at positions where there is a low supply of high quality players.

To your point about guarantees.... No shit, Sherlock. But how can you stand behind that line of thinking? While there are no guarantees that a guy will be there, there isn't anything guaranteeing there won't be one there, either. But, based on the amount of guys available at that spot, odds are strong there will be several. Do you not realize your "we don't know" argument goes both ways there?

[Crowe]

DT or LB

WR

CB

S/K

Oline Depth

[WrongVerb]

I think they go
1. DT/DE/OG
2. OG/WR
3. WR/FS/CB

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

1st - WR
2nd - DT
3rd - CB

Linebacker is right there with CB but i think the team likes Dawson and Flowers for the future and
will probably add another in the 4th or 5th. Hopefully we get a Center to compete with Bodine...

We better not ignore this great class of DT's.

A rookie 1st round receiver is the most likely to make an impact as a rookie.

[fredtoast]

(03-16-2016, 12:58 PM)PDub80 Wrote: That's not how supply and demand works, Fred. There is a high supply of high-quality and, as such, there will not be a hurry to take one. Where there will be a hurry is at positions where there is a low supply of high quality players.

Uh, that is not how the NFL draft works.

Teams don't pass on first round picks in the second or third round.  No team is going to pass on a first round graded DT in order to draft a 4th round graded WR just because there are fewer good WRs in the draft.  History has proven that when there are fewer good players at a certain position then there are fewer players taken at that position.

[GreenCornBengal]

(03-15-2016, 04:25 PM)PDub80 Wrote: NEWS FLASH to guys thinking DT in the first: The DT position is so deep in this years draft that guys who would be 1st round talents in any other draft are projected to be there in the 4th round.

Out of the 18 highest rated Dlineman in the 2016 draft, 12 of them are DT/NT. The highest rated D lineman is a 7.2 the rest of the top 18 prospects go from a 6.8 (the highest a DT is is 6.5) to 5.8. Most of which are only separated by 0.1 to 0.2 of a grade http://www.nfl.com/draft/2016/tracker?icampaign=draft-sub_nav_bar-drafteventpage-tracker#dt-tabs:dt-by-position/dt-by-position-input:dl

What does this mean???: It means that if the Bengals go DT in round 1 they will be buying that commodity wayyyyy too early because they can get virtually the same grade of prospect much much later, while killing themselves at positions of actual immediate need in areas where the draft is weaker.

- WR & CB this year has a much more rapid drop off, meaning that talent is at a premium at that position in the 2016 draft. What would be smart for the Bengals to do would be to take a 6.0/5.9 WR (Corey Coleman, for example) or 6.0/5.9 CB (Eli Apple, for example) in the first, and then look to a less pressing need (LB) in the 2nd and still get a 6.0/5.7 type prospect (Fackrell, Jenkins, or Lee).

Then in the 3rd round grab a DT prospect. They will STILL be getting a prospect rating 5.8-6.2 - basically very little difference between that 3rd rounder and a 1st in terms of grade. There is absolutely no question that in 2016 that type of talent will be there in the 3rd or even 4th!

Going this route would give the Bengals premium talent at each of their first 3 picks and allowing them to have the highest average talent possible (going by NFL.com)  all while filling needs for depth.

- Obviously, if a guy falls and he is THAT much better you have to take him, regardless of position, but I don't think that matters at DT this year

The best players in the draft are DTs so the BPA will be a DT. BOOM BENGAL LOGIC.

[Derrick]

(03-14-2016, 09:49 PM)Hoofhearted Wrote: rather have a kick ass D and I don't see us getting a LB early, soo...

1 - DT/CB
2 - WR/WR
3 - LB
4 - WR

Then of course probably throw in a Safety, Center, and probably another o-line to round out draft.

Other than Burfict, who makes the current LB corp. a top tier group? IMO it is weak throughout. Would appreciate being convinced otherwise. Thanks.

[GreenDragon]

WR
Safety
LT

[phil413]

This is actually a good topic as it opens a good debate of what we view and what we think Cincy views as a need. One may see how they value a big money position like corner and how they haven't used high resources on LB's recently and want a corner. Another may be sick of hoping for Burfict to carry a rag tag LB group yet hope for the best from the young DB's.

In regards to the top 3 picks though, I think you have to step away from focusing on ranking the needs or it seeps into where you're repeating the same mock formula. Then we start sounding like Browns fans where we pigeonhole positions at certain rounds. I kinda like looking at the depth and accounting for BPA at any point. There is a lot of depth to WR and DT early on, so they'll likely end up with both by the 4th round. I'm hoping for Billings to fall in the 1st, but I wouldn't pass on him just because of the position depth. Same could be said for Doctson. Take into account that surprise pick (Eifert, Hill, Moch) and doubling up on a position (T last year, DT in 2012) and realistically the "need" of WR and DT should be the only ones we could lean toward counting on by the mid rounds. I want another descent corner and another LB, but they may not find their guy when the pick rolls around. If that happens at WR and DT, I'd be amazed. So I'm just saying those two positions are two needs that should be filled within the top 4 picks.

[Bengalfan11164]

(03-14-2016, 09:56 PM)TGISunday Wrote: We have decent contracts on several linebackers, already.  Unless Lee falls...the other positions are just more likely.

There is $0 dead money if we cut aj hawk, dimanche, or Vinnie Rey ( year 2 or 3).

Flowers dead money is $40k.

Maualuga's dead money would be $900 k.

Salary wouldn't stop the bengals from drafting a first round pick.

But, a defense that operate with mostly just 2 lbs on the field at the same time might.