Later round WR success myth

[Burma]

I had posted in Kevin's Chris Collinsworth thread that we need should bypass a early round WR as we have success with later round picks. After all, that is what is true right? The sports guys say it, other posters say it.  But is it true? Not really. I pulled up the Bengals draft history to check this out.  I was actually a bit surprised at how little success we have had with WR drafted from the 3rd through 7th round. This whole myth seems to have started based upon the success of Housh.  Since Housh's success, Marvin Jones, Sanu, and Chris Henry are the only post 2nd round WRs we have drafted since 2001 that have really been productive .  That is 2 drafts out of 15 that we have "hit" on later round WR. I have not taken the time to see how that stacks up to other team's success rates, but even so it doesn't really strike me as proof of our late round WR gem sniffing skills.

Take a look. (player, year, round)

• Mario Alford, 2015, 7th
• James Wright, 2014, 7th
• Cobi Hamilton, 2013, 6th
• Marvin Jones, 2012, 5th
• Mohamed Sanu, 2012, 3rd
• Ryan Whalen, 2011, 6th
• Dezmon Briscoe, 2010, 6th
• Jordan Shipley, 2010, 3rd
• Freddie Brown, 2009, 7th
• Mario Urrutia, 2008, 7th
• Andre Caldwell, 2008, 3rd (marginally successful, I guess)
• Bennie Brazell, 2006, 7th
• Reggie McNeal, 2006, 6th
• Tab Perry, 2005, 6th
• Chris Henry, 2005, 3rd
• Maurice Mann, 2004, 5th
• Kelley Washington, 2003, 3rd
• T. J. Houshmandzadeh, 2001, 7th
  

Prior to Housh you have to go all the way back to Mike Martin, 1983 8th round pick, to find a later round receiver who had more than 1000 yards for his entire NFL Career!

[Hammerstripes]

Agree. In all fairness, league-wide success in lowers rounds isn't exactly high. There's a reason guys drafted in the first 2-3 rounds are the ones that start in the NFL. Very few guys fall through the cracks these days because of the advances in scouting and media.

If we draft a WR and expect him to contribute, we need to do it early.

[kevin]

I'm glad you posted this......Our new offensive coordinator has already said WR is a top priority......I'll be very surprised if Bengals don't draft a WR in Round 1 .....You guys are correct that the best WRs go early in the NFL across the board. ....Now, I don't consider Round 3 a late round pick because you are still in the Top 100 players in the draft. ...Here are some receivers or TE's taken by Bengals in first 2 rounds though......Issac Curtis, Billy Brooks, Dan Ross, David Verser, Cris Collinsworth, Eddie Brown, Tim McGee, Carl Pickins, Tony McGee, Darnay Scott, Marco Battaglia, Gresham, Eifert, AJ Green and I'm guessing Chad Johnson. .....Yes, there are some huge busts and misses in here...but there are players that were very good for Bengals. ......So scout well and select the right one. ....I'm hearing that the WR talent isn't very deep in this draft, so I'm for trading up. Look for Bengals to go 1st Round on WR.

[XenoMorph]

(03-18-2016, 09:35 AM)Hammerstripes Wrote: Agree. In all fairness, league-wide success in lowers rounds isn't exactly high. There's a reason guys drafted in the first 2-3 rounds are the ones that start in the NFL. Very few guys fall through the cracks these days because of the advances in scouting and media.

If we draft a WR and expect him to contribute, we need to do it early.

our recent 5th rounder out played our 3rd.. so they do slip...

Some are in bad spots in college. and some just have the drive others dont.

Of course the later the round the less likely to strike gold. And a lot of those late rounders dont get much of a shot Where as the investment of a high draft pick almost gaurentees some playing time.

But we dont necessarily need to drop a 1st or 2nd on a WR this year for them to step in and help.

I dont see us hitting the draft without signing another WR though.

[Hammerstripes]

(03-18-2016, 03:19 PM)XenoMorph Wrote: our recent 5th rounder out played our 3rd.. so they do slip...

Some are in bad spots in college. and some just have the drive others dont.

Of course the later the round the less likely to strike gold.  And a lot of those late rounders dont get much of a shot  Where as the investment of a high draft pick almost gaurentees some playing time.

But we dont necessarily need to drop a 1st or 2nd on a WR this year for them to step in and help.  

I dont see us hitting the draft without signing another WR though.

If you are expecting a WR to come in from the draft and start on the other side of AJ, you better drop a 1st or 2nd rounder on him.  That being said, I do think we will sign a vet off the scrap heap.

Either way, this team did drop the ball on the WR position - which is some what surprising considering how well they have prepped for losing guys at key positions (S, CB, OL) but left the WR group fairly empty behind AJ, Jones and Sanu.