Peyton Manning: My record with Marvin Harrison won’t be broken

[CageTheBengal]

Except when Dalton and Green snap it.

Quote:Colts quarterback Peyton Manning says the one record he set that won’t be broken is the record he shares with Marvin Harrison.

Manning threw 114 touchdown passes to Harrison, the most in NFL history for one quarterback/receiver pairing. Manning fondly recalled Harrison today, and said he doesn’t believe any quarterback and receiver will ever connect for that many touchdowns again.

“The very first preseason game, my very first pass, I threw a five-yard pass, and Marvin Harrison ran 48 yards for a touchdown,” Manning said. “I remember thinking, ‘The NFL is easy. You just throw a short pass and Marvin Harrison will run for touchdowns.’ Which is pretty much what he did for the entire time we played together. I think many records will be broken — most of my records will be broken — I don’t believe that record that me and Marvin have of throwing the most touchdowns together will ever be broken.”

If the record is ever going to be broken, it will be a long time from now, because no one else is close. The second-most touchdowns for one quarterback receiver pairing is the 92 touchdowns that Steve Young threw to Jerry Rice. Among active pairings, the record is the 76 touchdown passes that Philip Rivers has thrown to Antonio Gates. There’s no chance of Rivers and Gates sticking around long enough to connect for 38 more touchdowns, which is what it would take to equal Manning and Harrison, and there’s no other active pairing even close.

So Manning may be right: The record he shares with Harrison is a record that could outlast us all.

[Bengalbug]

(03-18-2016, 03:11 PM)CageTheBengal Wrote: Except when Dalton and Green snap it.  

They have a chance.  Not a great one, but if AJ can be close to as productive as he is now until he is 35 and remains with the bengals they will get close

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

Dalton-to-AJ is at what right now, 40? My figure is 45 minus 3 last year from McCarron, minus the 1 from that Browns game where the Browns didn't cover AJ and Gradkowski lobbed it over there, minus the 1 that Sanu threw in the WAS game?

Figure if Dalton keeps playing like he played last year it shouldn't be terribly hard. Even less so as they keep making more rules to protect the QB and more rules to make it impossible to play defense.



(Dark horse candidate is Brady-to-Gronk. They're at what, 65 right now? All depends on how long Brady can hold it together. Gronk can pretty easily beat that 114 number in 5 more healthy seasons.)

[Bengalbug]

(03-18-2016, 03:15 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Dalton-to-AJ is at what right now, 40? My figure is 45 minus 3 last year from McCarron, minus the 1 from that Browns game where the Browns didn't cover AJ and Gradkowski lobbed it over there, minus the 1 that Sanu threw in the WAS game?

Figure if Dalton keeps playing like he played last year it shouldn't be terribly hard. Even less so as they keep making more rules to protect the QB and more rules to make it impossible to play defense.



(Dark horse candidate is Brady-to-Gronk. They're at what, 65 right now? All depends on how long Brady can hold it together. Gronk can pretty easily beat that 114 number in 5 more healthy seasons.)

At least 5 seasons for Gronk.  He has averaged 11.2 per year if you take out his year he got hurt.  He would need 12.5 for 4 years.  So he would need to be even better for the next 4 years with no fall off from Brady. 

Slim chance.  Maybe 100 (which is incredible) but that's about it

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(03-18-2016, 03:20 PM)Bengalbug Wrote: At least 5 seasons for Gronk.  He has averaged 11.2 per year if you take out his year he got hurt.  He would need 12.5 for 4 years.  So he would need to be even better for the next 4 years with no fall off from Brady. 

Slim chance.  Maybe 100 (which is incredible) but that's about it

Misdid some math there. If you take out his 2013 season, he's averaged 12.2 TDs/season.  (11+12+11+17+10= 61, then divide by 5 years) Crazy thing is the only season Gronk has ever started 16 games was his 17 TD season. Only started more than 11 games in a season 2 times in 6 years and still has 65 TDs.

[Shake n Blake]

Brady is too old to throw 50 more TD's to Gronk. He turns 39 before the season starts and he'd need 4-5 more seasons.

Brady would be 42-43 years old by then.

Dalton/Green probably have as good a shot as any current duo, given their age, production and likelihood that they'll be in the same uni for a long time.

[fredtoast]

(03-18-2016, 10:46 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Brady is too old to throw 50 more TD's to Gronk. He turns 39 before the season starts and he'd need 4-5 more seasons.

Pats have no WRs and Brady throw a tons of TDs.

If Gronk can stay healthy he can easily average 15+ a year.  He is an absolute freak.  He averaged 16.3 yards per catch last year which was better than Odell Beckham (15.1), A. J. Green (15.1), Calvin Johnson (13.9), Julio Jones (13.8), and Antonio Brown (13.5), and Demaryius Thomas (12.4).

[grampahol]

The pair in Jacksonville might have a shot if they can ever put together a defense, but that's a big if.. Bortles and Robinson or Herns.. I dunno. They're pretty good though..

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(03-19-2016, 01:54 AM)grampahol Wrote: The pair in Jacksonville might have a shot if they can ever put together a defense, but that's a big if.. Bortles and Robinson or Herns.. I dunno.  They're pretty good though..

Almost want to say they have a better shot if they don't put together a defense. They were 24th overall, 31st in scoring last year and Bortles threw 10 to Hurns and 14 to Robinson.

What they really need is to put together a real OL. Bortles can't keep taking 50+ sacks a year and not break eventually. As long as they stay healthy, Bortles and one of those two will probably break it eventually.

[Shake n Blake]

(03-19-2016, 12:31 AM)fredtoast Wrote: 1. Pats have no WRs and Brady throw a tons of TDs.

2. If Gronk can stay healthy he can easily average 15+ a year.  He is an absolute freak.  He averaged 16.3 yards per catch last year which was better than Odell Beckham (15.1), A. J. Green (15.1), Calvin Johnson (13.9), Julio Jones (13.8), and Antonio Brown (13.5), and Demaryius Thomas (12.4).

1. Peyton Manning also threw a ton of TDs...until he didn't. Father time is undefeated. 

2. That's one heck of an "if". 

Gronk was as healthy as he's ever been last year, and he had 11 TDs. He'd need 5 more seasons like that with Brady. It's just not likely, at all.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(03-19-2016, 04:55 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: 1. Peyton Manning also threw a ton of TDs...until he didn't. Father time is undefeated. 

2. That's one heck of an "if". 

Gronk was as healthy as he's ever been last year, and he had 11 TDs. He'd need 5 more seasons like that with Brady. It's just not likely, at all.

Yeah, I don't think it'll happen either, but I am not willing to say it won't happen. Brady has been known to be okay with targeting the hell out of one person. (Moss 23 TD in '07, Gronk 17 TD in '11) So sure if we're talking average, but that average could be completely messed up by a single monster season. That's why I am not willing to guarantee it won't happen.

[Shake n Blake]

(03-19-2016, 05:16 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Yeah, I don't think it'll happen either, but I am not willing to say it won't happen. Brady has been known to be okay with targeting the hell out of one person. (Moss 23 TD in '07, Gronk 17 TD in '11) So sure if we're talking average, but that average could be completely messed up by a single monster season. That's why I am not willing to guarantee it won't happen.

Well even I wouldn't guarantee it, that's why I've said all along that it's just not "likely". Outside of that 17 TD season for Gronk, he's had 10, 11, 4, 12 and 11 TDs, so the 17 number looks like the outlier.

And Gronk has led the team in TDs every year expect 2012, when Edelman led the Pats with 6 TDs. In short, a monster season in the TD department (around 17 scores or more) isn't likely either.

You add up all those things (Brady being 39 years old, Gronk's injury history, plus the slim odds of a monster TD season) and the odds look pretty dang small. Add in the fact that the Pats just made a big move in picking up Martellus Bennett, who will surely take some targets away from Gronk.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(03-19-2016, 06:31 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Well even I wouldn't guarantee it, that's why I've said all along that it's just not "likely". Outside of that 17 TD season for Gronk, he's had 10, 11, 4, 12 and 11 TDs, so the 17 number looks like the outlier.

And Gronk has led the team in TDs every year expect 2012, when Edelman led the Pats with 6 TDs. In short, a monster season in the TD department (around 17 scores or more) isn't likely either.

You add up all those things (Brady being 39 years old, Gronk's injury history, plus the slim odds of a monster TD season) and the odds look pretty dang small. Add in the fact that the Pats just made a big move in picking up Martellus Bennett, who will surely take some targets away from Gronk.

Interesting thing is Gronk's 17 TD season came with Aaron Hernandez's best season/most playing time. So I am certainly not agree that Bennett will make Gronk worse. If anything, most pass catchers get better when there's someone to take at least a little bit of heat off of them.

As for the TD numbers, the 10, one of the 11s, and the 12 came in 11, 11, and 12 starts, respectively.
Impressively enough, in Gronk's 69 starts he has caught 59 TDs, or 0.855 TDs/start.
Compare that to his 6 TDs in the 11 games he played in that he didn't start, or 0.545 TDs/non-start.

So if (and this is the big if part) he starts all 16 games in a season, he should get between 13 and 14 TDs (13.68, specifically) at that rate.





(This is just me getting curious and doing the math/deciding to share it more than trying to argue any point.)

[Shake n Blake]

(03-19-2016, 07:24 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Interesting thing is Gronk's 17 TD season came with Aaron Hernandez's best season/most playing time. So I am certainly not agree that Bennett will make Gronk worse. If anything, most pass catchers get better when there's someone to take at least a little bit of heat off of them.

As for the TD numbers, the 10, one of the 11s, and the 12 came in 11, 11, and 12 starts, respectively.
Impressively enough, in Gronk's 69 starts he has caught 59 TDs, or 0.855 TDs/start.
Compare that to his 6 TDs in the 11 games he played in that he didn't start, or 0.545 TDs/non-start.

So if (and this is the big if part) he starts all 16 games in a season, he should get between 13 and 14 TDs (13.68, specifically) at that rate.


(This is just me getting curious and doing the math/deciding to share it more than trying to argue any point.)

Fair enough. Gronk does score TD's at a high rate. It all comes down to his health and Brady defying time. 

Fwiw, as good as Brady has been, I'll probably be avoiding him in fantasy from here on out. He has to fall off at some point.

[StLucieBengal]

I agree with others. Andy and AJ have a real shot at getting this record.

[BengalChris]

Wake this thread up when Dalton and Green get to a 100. They're at 40 after 5 years. If they stay together long enough to get to 100 then they have a shot. Until then it's all conjecture.

[OrlandoBengal]

Logic says the chances of the record being broken are extremely slim. In the top two duos you have four Hall of Fame players. Steve Young and Jerry Rice are second place, 22 behind Peyton and Marvin. Andy and AJ are at 40 after five seasons... that would mean they would need to keep this pace for more than a decade to even have a chance. Add in the fact that you now have Eifert who is a huge red zone weapon and will take td's away from Green. I'm not saying it can't happen, but this conversation is about 7-8 years premature... too much can happen between now and then.