Taking a deeper look at LaFell

[Shake n Blake]

It seems like most people are more excited about Dansby than LaFell and I'm really not sure why. Sure, I think Dansby was a solid pickup, but considering his age (34) and especially the position he'll play for us (SLB), I doubt he makes a serious impact. If he gets the same amount of snaps and duties as Lawson, Harrison and Hawk, then we can safely expect roughly 30 total tackles and maybe a fluke sack or INT. I think Dansby could be a big-time player in a bigger role, but I'm just not sure how he'll get a bigger role.

Now I think the people who are down on LaFell really seem to be judging him almost solely on last season. In particular his first game back from injury when he had a drop fest. It really hasn't been a theme throughout his career though, so I think it's really unfair to label him as having stone hands. According to SportingCharts.com, here's LaFell's drops by year:

2015: 6 drops on 74 targets (8.1%)
2014: 2 drops on 119 targets (1.7%)
2013: 6 drops on 86 targets (7.0%)
2012: 3 drops on 76 targets (4.0%)
2011: 2 drops on 56 targets (3.6%)
2010: 7 drops on 77 targets (9.1%)

Totals: 26 drops on 488 targets (5.3%)

Now compare that to the career totals of other Bengals (I included Greg Little because he's synonymous with drops):

MLJ: 6 drops on 215 targets (2.8%)
Sanu: 15 drops on 250 targets (6.0%)
Green: 23 drops on 705 targets (3.3%)
Little: 26 drops on 324 targets (8.0%)

So while LaFell's hands aren't quite as good as Green's or MLJ's, he's been better than Sanu and nowhere near as bad as Little. Hopefully this makes everyone feel a little better about his hands. Now as far as his production, everyone probably knows by this point that LaFell had a very good year for the Pats in 2014.

But he was also pretty productive in Carolina, where he averaged 638 yards and 4 TDs on only 72 targets in an offense that passed less than ours. He was 3rd in line for targets behind Steve Smith and Greg Olsen. Now I'm not saying that LaFell is a stud or that he's an upgrade. I'm just saying that I think people are underestimating him by saying he's not a #2, and I also think the drops have been exaggerated thanks to 1 game when he was coming back from injury.

Thoughts?

[Thundercloud]

Appreciate the research, and it was a good thing to look at. I've been happy with the signing, but have seen Lafell as more of a Sanu replacement. I am hoping for a first round pick of either Docston, Coleman or Fuller for our actual No.2. Things I'm hearing make me fear they will go in a different direction.

I'm not saying Lafell would be a terrible No.2. Might be pretty good paired with AJ, but I'm wanting someone who can really get his ass downfield and track the ball. Take the top off the defense. Can Alford do that? We don't know yet.

Anyway, good research, which shows we've picked up a very legit NFL receiver. We really needed to solidify the position, and this does it, especially if we do something really good for the position in the draft.

[WeezyBengal]

Really nice thread. I think Lafell will pick up the slack and be a real player in this offense. He was really productive two years ago with the Pats and just couldn't get over an injury last year.

[Shake n Blake]

I actually agree that we should go after someone in the draft, but it's more due to LaFell's age and contract than his skill level.

I think LaFell is a decent #2 and that's really all we need with this QB and the other weapons we have.

Btw, here's a nice article with a quote from a Patriots beat reporter explaining what happened in NE with LaFell:

http://espn.go.com/blog/cincinnati-bengals/post/_/id/22128/brandon-lafell-bengals-nfl-free-agency-what-are-getting-in-signing

[Brownshoe]

(03-31-2016, 04:37 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: I actually agree that we should go after someone in the draft, but it's more due to LaFell's age and contract than his skill level.

I think LaFell is a decent #2 and that's really all we need with this QB and the other weapons we have.

Btw, here's a nice article with a quote from a Patriots beat reporter explaining what happened in NE with LaFell:

http://espn.go.com/blog/cincinnati-bengals/post/_/id/22128/brandon-lafell-bengals-nfl-free-agency-what-are-getting-in-signing

I think us signing Dansby and LaFell won't effect our draft. Personally I have us tanking Darron Lee in the first and Sterling Shepard in the second.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

I am excited about both Dansby and Lafell. I like both players, and Lafell is in a better position to succeed cause he is
already our #2 WR as is Dansby is our SAM backer right now. I think Lafell and a rookie to go along with Green and
Eifert will be a very good set of weapons. Lafell has had good hands over the course of his career and the injury he had
last year must be behind him.

Lafell runs good routes, is physical and has good YAC. He will be good for us. I will not say that he is better than MLJ
cause MLJ is faster, younger, and probably has more upside, but Lafell does have more production and has been more
durable over his career.

But if we are going to compare why some are more excited about Dansby it is probably cause we have been needing a
good cover backer for a long time. Dansby has been one of the best LB'ers in this Century for heck sake. His age might
be a problem this year and it might not. He has shown no falling off. Dansby is a 3 down LB and we only have 2 of them
right now, he could and i will say arguably should have much more snaps than those other LB'ers you mention Shake.

[Okeana]

Contract details coming out. They paid him 2.5 with .5 million in bonus potential. Those are great numbers if we can even get sanu's production.

[Shake n Blake]

(03-31-2016, 04:49 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: ...But if we are going to compare why some are more excited about Dansby it is probably cause we have been needing a
good cover backer for a long time. Dansby has been one of the best LB'ers in this Century for heck sake. His age might
be a problem this year and it might not. He has shown no falling off. Dansby is a 3 down LB and we only have 2 of them
right now, he could and i will say arguably should have much more snaps than those other LB'ers you mention Shake.

I sure hope so. I think he's automatically our 2nd best LB now.

[BengalChris]

Awesome research on LaFell. Makes my like him more.

LaFell overall #s are better than I expected.

[spazz70]

I am confused? How is Dansby not going to get playing time? When Burfict comes back...unless something really strange happens...Dansby and Burfict will be on the field most every snap...Dansby is known for his coverage skills... The guy played 85% of the snaps for Cleveland just last year... I cannot see anything less here...

[Shepdawg]

(03-31-2016, 11:33 PM)spazz70 Wrote: I am confused?  How is Dansby not going to get playing time?  When Burfict comes back...unless something really strange happens...Dansby and Burfict will be on the field most every snap...Dansby is known for his coverage skills... The guy played 85% of the snaps for Cleveland just last year... I cannot see anything less here...

Dansby actually played 1,029 snaps out of 1,045 total defensive snaps for Cleveland last season for 98.5%.  I don't think he will get 98.5% of the snaps as he did in Cleveland.  I doubt he even gets 85%, but I would agree he will likely get the majority of the snaps.

[Hammerstripes]

(03-31-2016, 04:09 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: It seems like most people are more excited about Dansby than LaFell and I'm really not sure why. Sure, I think Dansby was a solid pickup, but considering his age (34) and especially the position he'll play for us (SLB), I doubt he makes a serious impact. If he gets the same amount of snaps and duties as Lawson, Harrison and Hawk, then we can safely expect roughly 30 total tackles and maybe a fluke sack or INT. I think Dansby could be a big-time player in a bigger role, but I'm just not sure how he'll get a bigger role.

Now I think the people who are down on LaFell really seem to be judging him almost solely on last season. In particular his first game back from injury when he had a drop fest. It really hasn't been a theme throughout his career though, so I think it's really unfair to label him as having stone hands. According to SportingCharts.com, here's LaFell's drops by year:

2015: 6 drops on 74 targets (8.1%)
2014: 2 drops on 119 targets (1.7%)
2013: 6 drops on 86 targets (7.0%)
2012: 3 drops on 76 targets (4.0%)
2011: 2 drops on 56 targets (3.6%)
2010: 7 drops on 77 targets (9.1%)

Totals: 26 drops on 488 targets (5.3%)

Now compare that to the career totals of other Bengals (I included Greg Little because he's synonymous with drops):

MLJ: 6 drops on 215 targets (2.8%)
Sanu: 15 drops on 250 targets (6.0%)
Green: 23 drops on 705 targets (3.3%)
Little: 26 drops on 324 targets (8.0%)

So while LaFell's hands aren't quite as good as Green's or MLJ's, he's been better than Sanu and nowhere near as bad as Little. Hopefully this makes everyone feel a little better about his hands. Now as far as his production, everyone probably knows by this point that LaFell had a very good year for the Pats in 2014.

But he was also pretty productive in Carolina, where he averaged 638 yards and 4 TDs on only 72 targets in an offense that passed less than ours. He was 3rd in line for targets behind Steve Smith and Greg Olsen. Now I'm not saying that LaFell is a stud or that he's an upgrade. I'm just saying that I think people are underestimating him by saying he's not a #2, and I also think the drops have been exaggerated thanks to 1 game when he was coming back from injury.

Thoughts?

Interesting take considering 2 of the last 3 years he has been right there with Little in drop % as well as a 9% in 2010.

I'm excited about both signings for one simple reason - this team will head into the draft with no immediate needs for a starter on offense or defense.  That's the sign of a well run roster.

[Shepdawg]

Another thing a lot of people overlook is that all 6 of his drops came in one game. His first game back off the PUP list against the Jets in late Oct. He missed the entire preseason, and was clearly rusty. He was targeted 8 times in that game. Meaning he finished the remainder of the season with zero drops on 66 targets.

[spazz70]

(03-31-2016, 11:40 PM)Shepdawg Wrote: Dansby actually played 1,029 snaps out of 1,045 total defensive snaps for Cleveland last season for 98.5%.  I don't think he will get 98.5% of the snaps as he did in Cleveland.  I doubt he even gets 85%, but I would agree he will likely get the majority of the snaps.

Even better...I could not remember the number...Just do not think that he comes off the field on passing downs...that is his strong suit...

[Shake n Blake]

(03-31-2016, 11:45 PM)Hammerstripes Wrote: Interesting take considering 2 of the last 3 years he has been right there with Little in drop % as well as a 9% in 2010.

An "interesting take" would be cherry picking a couple of LaFell's season percentages and comparing it to Little's career percentage.

By that logic, I could say that Sanu and Green have similar hands because Sanu had a couple seasons with a better drop percentage than 3.3%.

Why cherry pick seasons (particularly one where he was coming back from injury) when you can look at their entire careers?

[magikod]

I'm really hoping he can turn it around here in Cincinnati. I think having AJ + Tyler taking some of the heat off the secondary he could do well in our offense.

[yellowxdiscipline]

Im really starting to think that maybe we should have signed LaFell to a 2 yr deal. If he has a good year for us and we want to keep him his price tag is going to go up.

[masonbengals fan]

(03-31-2016, 11:50 PM)Shepdawg Wrote: Another thing a lot of people overlook is that all 6 of his drops came in one game.  His first game back off the PUP list against the Jets in late Oct.   He missed the entire preseason, and was clearly rusty.  He was targeted 8 times in that game.  Meaning he finished the remainder of the season with zero drops on 66 targets.

I like the sound of that.....

[3wt]

(03-31-2016, 11:52 PM)spazz70 Wrote: Just do not think that he comes off the field on passing downs...that is his strong suit...

This.   He'll be the first SAM we've had in a long time that is a 3 down backer.   Doesn't mean we have to play him every down, but he should be a significant - hopefully massive - upgrade in coverage.   He should play a lot of downs.

And to the OP thanks for the work on LaFell's stats.  He is definitely not a replacement for MLJ.   But his numbers look to make him an upgrade from Sanu and a reliable target.

[XenoMorph]

(03-31-2016, 04:09 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: It seems like most people are more excited about Dansby than LaFell and I'm really not sure why. Sure, I think Dansby was a solid pickup, but considering his age (34) and especially the position he'll play for us (SLB), I doubt he makes a serious impact. If he gets the same amount of snaps and duties as Lawson, Harrison and Hawk, then we can safely expect roughly 30 total tackles and maybe a fluke sack or INT. I think Dansby could be a big-time player in a bigger role, but I'm just not sure how he'll get a bigger role.

Now I think the people who are down on LaFell really seem to be judging him almost solely on last season. In particular his first game back from injury when he had a drop fest. It really hasn't been a theme throughout his career though, so I think it's really unfair to label him as having stone hands. According to SportingCharts.com, here's LaFell's drops by year:

2015: 6 drops on 74 targets (8.1%)
2014: 2 drops on 119 targets (1.7%)
2013: 6 drops on 86 targets (7.0%)
2012: 3 drops on 76 targets (4.0%)
2011: 2 drops on 56 targets (3.6%)
2010: 7 drops on 77 targets (9.1%)

Totals: 26 drops on 488 targets (5.3%)

Now compare that to the career totals of other Bengals (I included Greg Little because he's synonymous with drops):

MLJ: 6 drops on 215 targets (2.8%)
Sanu: 15 drops on 250 targets (6.0%)
Green: 23 drops on 705 targets (3.3%)
Little: 26 drops on 324 targets (8.0%)

So while LaFell's hands aren't quite as good as Green's or MLJ's, he's been better than Sanu and nowhere near as bad as Little. Hopefully this makes everyone feel a little better about his hands. Now as far as his production, everyone probably knows by this point that LaFell had a very good year for the Pats in 2014.

But he was also pretty productive in Carolina, where he averaged 638 yards and 4 TDs on only 72 targets in an offense that passed less than ours. He was 3rd in line for targets behind Steve Smith and Greg Olsen. Now I'm not saying that LaFell is a stud or that he's an upgrade. I'm just saying that I think people are underestimating him by saying he's not a #2, and I also think the drops have been exaggerated thanks to 1 game when he was coming back from injury.

Thoughts?

And people are quick to judge for sure... Look at eiferts drops last year. Most came in 1 bad game he had but he had as many as lefell. although he made up for it with TDs.

But my friend that is a pats fan says he was really good their superbowl year.