On The Play That Hill Fumbled......

[Essex Johnson]

(04-07-2016, 10:55 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: It's not about hindsight, but it's about probability and history.

Nobody knew that he was definitely going to fumble, but you have to look at his history with fumbling problems and take that into consideration, which Marvin even admitted he did when he said that Gio would have been carrying the ball if healthy.  

He had lost one fumble since week 2, so he still had a very low risk of fumbling... I think they liked Gio style in that situation.. he tends to carry with both hands over the ball more often than Hill.. but to act like Hill was a fumble risk does not bare out in the stats.    He lost a total of 3 fumbles in the regular season... He had 238 rushes and receptions.  So he lost 3 out of 238 touches going into the playoffs.  He actually had around a 99 percent odds of not losing the fumble.   I think those were very good odds

[grampahol]

(04-07-2016, 11:41 PM)magikod Wrote: then we can all get alzheimer's disease and forget about it! 

I'm already working on that part. I'm not quite there, but it runs in the family. Of all the things I have to worry about over the next several years Hill's fumble isn't even near the top 987,538,364,203,472.6 ..

[*Nately120*]

(04-08-2016, 12:01 PM)GreenCornBengal Wrote: Shoulda never let John Connor go.

You know, it really irked me that his named was John Connor and yet  his nickname was The Terminator.  I get it, that's the name of the movie, but John Connor is one of the characters in that movie who is NOT a terminator.  That would be like calling a girl named Dorothy "The Tin Man" or "The Wizard of Oz" or something.

Anyways!

If we are really going to sit here and act like having one of our starting RBs run the ball is inviting disaster then we should really weep that the Bengals are keeping him on the team.  It's hindsight, people.  We have people saying we should have taken a knee, or had some bench player run the ball rather than give it to Hill.  

The best part?

Pre-2015 season - We need to trade Gio or make him a WR so Hue isn't stupid enough to hand the ball to anyone but Hill!
Post-playoff loss - That idiot Hue had to get cute and stupid and handed the ball to Hill!

I get it, Hill is fumble prone, Hill fumbled, but let's not act like we aren't just spitballing when we "know" handing the ball to some nobody or just falling to our knees for fear of losing were the obvious choices here. Some of us have boiled the 2015 down to Hue stupidly running Hill, which OBVIOUSLY is inviting a turnover. Maybe the Browns paid off Hue? Yes, a running play to Hill...he's obviously going to fumble, because it's rare that he runs the ball without fumbling. Yessssss perfect!

[BengalsRocker]

I'm more than convinced that no matter who had the ball for any scenario... they were destined to F it up.

I am a Bengals fan.

This should not be new news to me.

[masonbengals fan]

With Gio out Hill should have had the ball. Hindsight is 2020

[CageTheBengal]

I thought the same thing before he fumbled. Oh well.

[GodFather]

(04-07-2016, 10:21 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: Marvin said that Hill wouldn't have been carrying the ball if Gio hadn't gotten hurt, so why didn't we have Peerman or Rex running the ball, or even put Sanu in the Wildcat and have him pick his open spot?

The only argument I can see is Rex and Peerman would be cold coming off the bench, but still better than a guy that's prone to fumbling the ball, especially when you're carrying the hopes of an entire city and entire fanbase after 25 years of heartbreak.

Hill fumbled?

[*Nately120*]

(04-08-2016, 04:42 PM)CageTheBengal Wrote: I thought the same thing before he fumbled. Oh well.

With my buddy as my witness, once Hill fumbled I said "I hope I'm wrong, but I see Burfict getting at least one 15-yard penalty to set the Steelers up for the winning field goal."  We all knew Hill was going to fumble and we all knew Burfict was going to set up the game-winning FG and yet we wonder why people who aren't Bengals fans don't just fall in line and predict we will win it all year in and year out.

[Football Bender]

(04-07-2016, 10:35 PM)Sabretooth Wrote: Hindsight is 20/20. Nobody knew Hill was definitely going to fumble.
Nobody knew  "lawfirm" was gonna spoil his perfect record from the pats when he came here.
Who suspected Trump would do so well in politics ?
Who knew terrorists could be so brutal ?
Unexpected stuff happens all the time, who can plan for everything ?

THIS ^ Hindsight 20/20.

Can you imagine the outrage if Peerman got the ball over Hill and fumbled the ball?  Shit happens.  Now for next season.

[*Awful Llama*]

Earlier today at work I was looking at a calendar and realized that tomorrow's the 3-month anniversary of the game, and I thought about starting a thread tomorrow saying 'hey, now that 3 months has gone by, what's our perspective on this game now that we've had time to reflect? Seems it's still pretty raw for some.

[*Go Cards*]

The reoccurring nightmare is reoccurring again and again.

Somebody make it stop.

[jfkbengals]

(04-07-2016, 10:21 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: Marvin said that Hill wouldn't have been carrying the ball if Gio hadn't gotten hurt, so why didn't we have Peerman or Rex running the ball, or even put Sanu in the Wildcat and have him pick his open spot?

The only argument I can see is Rex and Peerman would be cold coming off the bench, but still better than a guy that's prone to fumbling the ball, especially when you're carrying the hopes of an entire city and entire fanbase after 25 years of heartbreak.

Marvin was absolutely right.

Had Gio not gotten hurt, we would have been passing the ball due to being down on the scoreboard.

The offense did NOTHING until Hill and the Oline got fired up by the cheap shot that knocked Gio out.

So Marvin, again, was absolutely right.

[Shepdawg]

(04-08-2016, 12:39 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: He had lost one fumble since week 2, so he still had a very low risk of fumbling... I think they liked Gio style in that situation.. he tends to carry with both hands over the ball more often than Hill.. but to act like Hill was a fumble risk does not bare out in the stats.    He lost a total of 3 fumbles in the regular season... He had 238 rushes and receptions.  So he lost 3 out of 238 touches going into the playoffs.  He actually had around a 99 percent odds of not losing the fumble.   I think those were very good odds

I disagree with your analysis, even though the numbers are not that far off.  Lets take a moment to include all the rushing fumbles in his 2 year career.  He's fumbled 8 times in 445 career carries.  For a fumble rate of 1.75%.  So he has about a 98.25% chance of not fumbling.  As I said, your "numbers" are pretty darn close.  But when we put those numbers into context, the picture isn't pretty.

 The only running backs that are fumbling at a rate higher than Hill's 1.75% are Ryan Matthews (3.77%), Ameer Abdullah (2.80%), Matt Jones (2.78%), Melvin Gordan (2.72) and James Starks (2.04%) - three rookies and two backups. 
http://www.cincyjungle.com/2016/1/18/10780184/Could-Jeremy-Hill-be-fumbling-away-his-place-in-nfl



To further put that into perspective, the NFL average fumble rate is 0.82%.  

[*rfaulk34*]

(04-07-2016, 10:21 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: Marvin said that Hill wouldn't have been carrying the ball if Gio hadn't gotten hurt, so why didn't we have Peerman or Rex running the ball, or even put Sanu in the Wildcat and have him pick his open spot?

The only argument I can see is Rex and Peerman would be cold coming off the bench, but still better than a guy that's prone to fumbling the ball, especially when you're carrying the hopes of an entire city and entire fanbase after 25 years of heartbreak.

Because Hill and Gio are RBs #1 and #2. Gio would have been in, i'm sure, because the coaching staff would feel more comfortable between the two, trusting him. That doesn't mean they don't trust Hill at all and they're going to but a 3rd or 4th string RB in. 

Hindsight makes it seem like a good idea, but in the moment, anyone should expect Hill to do the right thing. 

[*rfaulk34*]

(04-07-2016, 10:55 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: It's not about hindsight, but it's about probability and history.

Nobody knew that he was definitely going to fumble, but you have to look at his history with fumbling problems and take that into consideration, which Marvin even admitted he did when he said that Gio would have been carrying the ball if healthy.  

In the moment, you're not thinking about probability and history. You trust your starting NFL running back is going to secure the ball. 

In the moment, Hill probably isn't expect to see the hole he did and figured he wants to get as many yards as he can toward a first down and more clock runnage. 

[Gohards]

(04-07-2016, 10:21 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: Marvin said that Hill wouldn't have been carrying the ball if Gio hadn't gotten hurt, so why didn't we have Peerman or Rex running the ball, or even put Sanu in the Wildcat and have him pick his open spot?

The only argument I can see is Rex and Peerman would be cold coming off the bench, but still better than a guy that's prone to fumbling the ball, especially when you're carrying the hopes of an entire city and entire fanbase after 25 years of heartbreak.

Dude Hill only had like 2 or 3 fumbles this year. He is not "prone to fumble" like everyone says he is. Nobody thought he was going to fumble.. He was most certainly who you want in the backfield in a situation like that. A strong, power back that is reliable. Gio ? No you do not want a scat-back back there. You want someone who can run hard thru the middle. Burkhead, peerman? Just no.... You dont want those guys back there in a game braking situation. It was actually a good run by him, if his knee would of hit, it would of been a 7 yarder or so. That means hill would of had two tries to get 3 more yards, and the game would of been over (most likely). Hill just fumbled.... Its a part of the game, unfortunate timing.

If Marvin really said he would of put Gio back there, he is not an idiot. Hill was the correct choice, imo.

[leonardfan40]

(04-08-2016, 10:49 PM)Gohards Wrote: Dude Hill only had like 2 or 3 fumbles this year. He is not "prone to fumble" like everyone says he is. Nobody thought he was going to fumble.. He was most certainly who you want in the backfield in a situation like that. A strong, power back that is reliable. Gio ? No you do not want a scat-back back there. You want someone who can run hard thru the middle. Burkhead, peerman? Just no.... You dont want those guys back there in a game braking situation. It was actually a good run by him, if his knee would of hit, it would of been a 7 yarder or so. That means hill would of had two tries to get 3 more yards, and the game would of been over (most likely).  Hill just fumbled.... Its a part of the game, unfortunate timing.

If Marvin really said he would of put Gio back there, he is not an idiot. Hill was the correct choice, imo.

Not only was he the correct choice, he was the ONLY choice! Can't believe anyone is really arguing that. 

[Shepdawg]

(04-08-2016, 10:49 PM)Gohards Wrote: Dude Hill only had like 2 or 3 fumbles this year. He is not "prone to fumble" like everyone says he is. Nobody thought he was going to fumble.. He was most certainly who you want in the backfield in a situation like that. A strong, power back that is reliable. Gio ? No you do not want a scat-back back there. You want someone who can run hard thru the middle. Burkhead, peerman? Just no.... You dont want those guys back there in a game braking situation. It was actually a good run by him, if his knee would of hit, it would of been a 7 yarder or so. That means hill would of had two tries to get 3 more yards, and the game would of been over (most likely).  Hill just fumbled.... Its a part of the game, unfortunate timing.

If Marvin really said he would of put Gio back there, he is not an idiot. Hill was the correct choice, imo.

Actually I would take a healthy Gio 100% of the time in that situation.  Gio has ZERO career fumbles on 328 carries.  (I do recall at least 2 fumbles, but he was a receiver each time)

[Sled21]

(04-08-2016, 10:28 AM)jj22 Wrote: Hill had one of the worst sophomore slumps I've witnessed in recent memory coming off of a dominant rookie year he was deemed a top 3 rb's of the league.

If you looked at Gio and Hill standing next to each other last year, it seems to me that Gio was in much better shape and was much more defined. I think Hill may have come into the league and had huge success, and let that go to his head and maybe slacked off in the weight room. Hopefully, last year opened his eyes. Marvin saying he would have run Gio instead of Hill had Gio been available should send a clear message to Jeremy.

[GreenCornBengal]

(04-08-2016, 11:32 PM)Shepdawg Wrote: Actually I would take a healthy Gio 100% of the time in that situation.  Gio has ZERO career fumbles on 328 carries.  (I do recall at least 2 fumbles, but he was a receiver each time)

Gio fumbled away the playoff game against SD. Lets not act like he is innocent either!

Hopefully both guys work together to be even better in the future.