Ask Jim Owczarski

[Bengalpool]

Is there any info on who the Bengals are looking at for DC or maybe some good possibilities if PG isn't coming back? Thanks!

[*PhilHos*]

(01-03-2018, 02:27 AM)jowczarski Wrote: As always, my apologies for late responses. Hectic last weeks here, and of course the holidays.

@PhilHos – no, we are no on the radio. But you can get us on iTunes, audioboom and through our Bengals app, which is free.
http://www.cincinnati.com/story/sports/nfl/bengals/2015/09/09/download-cincinnati-bengals-football-app/71932252/

Cool. I'm going to check it out on the way home tonight. Hopefully, you don't have a weird or annoying voice.

[jfkbengals]

Jim,

Any idea on candidates for OLine Coach?

[fredtoast]

From '05 through '15 the league wide passer rating increased from78.2 to 88.4. It increased every single year except '09 when it had a very small drop from 81.5 to 81.2. But in both '16 and '17 the league passer rating dropped and is now back down to 85.1.

The same trend exists in passing yards except on a larger scale. While rushing yards has remained steady passing yardage increased dramatically from 203.5 yards per game in '05 to 243.8 in '15. While passer rating increased by about 10 percent passing yardage increased by almost 20 percent. But like passer rating passing yardage has also dropped each of the last two season and is back down to 334.1.

What do you think is behind these trends? I think it has to be more than just "defenses catching up" because it should not take defenses 10 years to "catch up".

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(01-16-2018, 02:30 PM)fredtoast Wrote: From '05 through '15 the league wide passer rating increased from78.2 to 88.4. It increased every single year except '09 when it had a very small drop from 81.5 to 81.2. But in both '16 and '17 the league passer rating dropped and is now back down to 85.1.

The same trend exists in passing yards except on a larger scale. While rushing yards has remained steady passing yardage increased dramatically from 203.5 yards per game in '05 to 243.8 in '15. While passer rating increased by about 10 percent passing yardage increased by almost 20 percent. But like passer rating passing yardage has also dropped each of the last two season and is back down to 334.1.

What do you think is behind these trends? I think it has to be more than just "defenses catching up" because it should not take defenses 10 years to "catch up".

Rule changes which favor the offense.

[fredtoast]

(01-16-2018, 07:41 PM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: Rule changes which favor the offense.

1.  I was asking Jim O.

2.  Why would rule changes which favor the offense make passer rating and passing yards DROP each of the last two seasons?

[jowczarski]

@rfaulk34 - if i could be you for 1 hour during a press conference so i could ask those idiots how they can be so clueless to their ineptness over the span of 15 and 26 years respectively. Or, at least, tell them to finally stop blowing smoke up fan's asses and just say "we don't give a shit what fans think. we will do it our way regardless".

Well, to your last sentence – that’s kind of what it is and how it should be. In every city. No owner (or GM or coach) should listen to the fans or care what they think about anything to do with the on-field product. IMO. No one will say that, because you can’t…but I mean, they all kind of say it by actions. I know that Mike Brown and Marvin Lewis know they have failed in reaching the ultimate goal – winning a Super Bowl – but yes, they will continue to do it their way.


@Goalpost Do we need a GM? It seems Mike likes to concede some GM duties to Marvin, but that hierarchy seems conflicted.

Love this question. I personally believe the best structure in the league is having a true GM who builds the roster, the coach coaches it with some input on the 46 and 53 with cut downs and the owner signs off on all of it but generally stays out of the way. But it’s not the only way. Obviously New England does it in a way that is very similar to the Bengals in terms of the HC and coaches being very involved. Dallas does it its way with Jerry Jones as the owner/GM. Others have had varying degrees of success with other models.

Long way to say the Bengals don’t “need” a GM – but if Katie and Troy Blackburn and Paul Brown were to decide to pull back out of football ops and promote Duke Tobin to GM and gave him the power to hire / fire a head coach and expand his staff to make up for the fact that the coaches would then likely not have as much input in scouting as they do…I wouldn’t hate it.

@Takedown – on what they’re looking for in a DC

Sorry for the late notice. Generally speaking, I believe they were looking for an experienced play caller with an ability to be creative in the 4-3 and sub packages. I think Austin fits that bill – as really Del Rio or even Mike Pettine would have been.

@PhilHos – weird/annoying voice

I hope not! But I get it – I don’t listen to some radio shows strictly for tonal issues. Hopefully we worked well for you.

@jfkbengals – OL coach candidates

Again, sorry for the delay on this. Like my DC answer above, I think the team wanted a 180 from Paul Alexander in terms of attitude and teaching style (i.e. more “aggressive.”)

@fredtoast – Trends

Interesting data. Thanks for taking a peek at it. Yeah, it’s not defenses catching up by any means. If anything the league is making it harder and harder for defenses to actually do their job with the flags. The league wants teams to throw the ball, that much is true. But I think some of the drop in yardage has been emphasis on easy completions – i.e. short passes and hoping for a big catch-and-run.

A two-year dip after a 10-year rise might not constitute a “trend” per se…but it’s worth noting as teams keep looking for their “franchise QB.”

But the drop in rating is interesting – usually such short completions helps build completion percentage, reduce turnovers and thus, increase rating. That I can’t say – have interceptions gone up accordingly? Also, the last two years you’ve had an influx of young QBs … who are generally bad at all aspects of the game. For instance, Trubisky drags down numbers comparatively to Jay Cutler from two years ago… Best I can theorize at this point.

[leonardfan40]

There is an Andy Dalton trade value thread in JN and I’d be interested to hear your thoughts. I don’t want to see him go anywhere but think he’s worth more than quite a few fans suggest. Obviously it’s hypothetical and it’s not about what the bengals would want, but what he’s actually worth. Personally considering the high value the league places on QB’s, Andy’s career stats, relative health, other QB trades, etc I think he’d fetch at least 2 first round picks in any trade. Others say a first plus some change and it looks like some say he wed be lucky to get a single first rounder. What do you think other teams would pay for a QB like Andy?

[J24]

I don't get the Bengals on their evaluation of Eifert . He is their best TE who fits perfectly with Dalton. I know he is injury prone but it's not like we're talking about an NBA or MLB contract where it is all guranteed money. Why not sign him to a Vontaz like deal.

[*rfaulk34*]

There's a thread in JN about what people's confidence is in Katie if/when she takes over control of the team. I don't think i've ever seen anyone ask, but it seems that since you're in the building you might have a pretty good insight into what kind of person she is and what kind of person you think she would be as a GM. 

[XenoMorph]

(01-20-2018, 06:02 PM)Jakeypoo Wrote: I don't get the Bengals on their evaluation of Eifert . He is their best TE who fits perfectly with Dalton. I know he is injury prone but it's not like we're talking about an NBA or MLB contract where it is all guranteed money. Why not sign him to a Vontaz like deal.

Pretty sure the Bengals Want Eifert Back....     But its hard to pay him top TE money when hes hardly on the field.

[XenoMorph]

Jim overall do you see this upcoming draft leaning towards Offense/Defense or a pretty even split... (I know free agency plays a part but as it stands now)

[fredtoast]

I've heard conflicting reports on the chances of the Bengals re-signing Bodine.

Any details?

[SunsetBengal]

Jim, what is your take on the statement made by Marvin Lewis, that the Bengals want to do everything in their power to keep Russell Bodine?

Quite frankly, myself and several others on here are quite astonished by that news. His performance has been less than noteworthy, to say the least. Many of us were pointing toward him as the weak link, back when the rest of the line was considered to be quite good. Could this just be posturing, so as to sign a known player to an economical contract?

[HarleyDog]

(01-26-2018, 07:20 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Jim, what is your take on the statement made by Marvin Lewis, that the Bengals want to do everything in their power to keep Russell Bodine?

Quite frankly, myself and several others on here are quite astonished by that news.  His performance has been less than noteworthy, to say the least.  Many of us were pointing toward him as the weak link, back when the rest of the line was considered to be quite good.  Could this just be posturing, so as to sign a known player to an economical contract?

• Salary: $1,797,000
  
  

[jowczarski]

@leonardfan40 - . What do you think other teams would pay for a QB like Andy?

The new CBA changes things, so it's hard to really go back too deep but I did go into 2009 since two starting quarterbacks were moved:

2009: Broncos trade Jay Cutler and a fifth-round pick to Bears for 2009 and 2010 first-round picks, 2009 third-round pick and Kyle Orton.

2009: Patriots trade Matt Cassel and Mike Vrabel to Chiefs for 2009 second-round pick (No. 34 overall)

2011: Bengals trade Carson Palmer to Raiders for 2011 first-round pick and 2013 second-round pick.

2015: Eagles trade Sam Bradford to Vikings for 2017 first-round pick, 2018 fourth-round pick.

2017: Patriots trade Jimmy Garoppolo to 49ers for a 2018 second-round pick.

If you look at the last three trades there, they were born out of some form of desperation. That always changes the value.

Dalton, specifically, is interesting in 2018. He's 30. His ceiling is probably 2015, so the acquiring team would have to feel like they could get him to that level right away - and keep him there through 2020.

Cutler was also an outlier. He was just 25, completed his third season and a Pro Bowl "breakout" campaign. The fact he was on the market was absurd. Cassel was also unique considering the Chiefs GM had just left New England. Teams are loathe to part with first-round picks for established players. They'll trade them for other first-round picks and guys they can draft that year (i.e. Trubisky, Watson, Mahomes)

So Dalton's "value" isn't really that high, IMO. It'd be like for a second-rounder and maybe more with another third, or maybe another second in a following year. It's really interesting. NFL players are like cars - depreciate immediately once driven past a certain point.

@jakeypoo - I don't get the Bengals on their evaluation of Eifert .

They like him a lot. If Eifert didn't get hurt in the Pro Bowl or didn't hurt his back after coming back, he probably would already be under a long-term deal. Coming to terms on a deal is a two-way street. They could offer him a deal with 46-man roster bonus protections i.e. Burfict, but it's up to Eifert to take that. And "injury prone" isn't just something to throw away here. He's played 10 games in two years. It's beyond that.

@rfaulk34 - thread on Katie
I actually jumped in on that one.

@XenoMorph - this upcoming draft leaning towards Offense/Defense or a pretty even split.

Hard to say. I mean, they'll probably look for multiple OL, TE, QB and RB on offense; DT, DE, LB, S (and maybe corner) on defense. I mean, with 12 picks, it could be 7-5 to one side of the ball…but I don't think they rate their board by offense/defense. "Need" is usually just used as a tiebreaker.

@fredtoast @ SunsetBengal- Bodine

Since I was the one who got quote from Marvin about him wanting Bodine back, I can say that I was a little surprised with how strongly he fell in that camp. I know Bodine was a Paul A. favorite, so it was interesting to me to hear Marvin so firmly in that camp as wel . I think Bengals.com talked to Pollack and he said he liked him. Soo…it may depend on how much Bodine is looking for. He will be desirable, IMO. It could be a 60-40 to re-signing him at this point, if he isn't pricing himself out. As for an "economical contract" - the Bengals view centers like guards - they'll pay what they feel is fair, but they're not setting a new market (i.e. Zeitler) for an interior lineman. What that is for a center, I dunno.

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(01-30-2018, 05:37 PM)jowczarski Wrote: @leonardfan40 - . What do you think other teams would pay for a QB like Andy?

The new CBA changes things, so it's hard to really go back too deep but I did go into 2009 since two starting quarterbacks were moved:

2009: Broncos trade Jay Cutler and a fifth-round pick to Bears for 2009 and 2010 first-round picks, 2009 third-round pick and Kyle Orton.

2009: Patriots trade Matt Cassel and Mike Vrabel to Chiefs for 2009 second-round pick (No. 34 overall)

2011: Bengals trade Carson Palmer to Raiders for 2011 first-round pick and 2013 second-round pick.

2015: Eagles trade Sam Bradford to Vikings for 2017 first-round pick, 2018 fourth-round pick.

2017: Patriots trade Jimmy Garoppolo to 49ers for a 2018 second-round pick.

If you look at the last three trades there, they were born out of some form of desperation. That always changes the value.

Dalton, specifically, is interesting in 2018. He's 30. His ceiling is probably 2015, so the acquiring team would have to feel like they could get him to that level right away - and keep him there through 2020.

Cutler was also an outlier. He was just 25, completed his third season and a Pro Bowl "breakout" campaign. The fact he was on the market was absurd. Cassel was also unique considering the Chiefs GM had just left New England. Teams are loathe to part with first-round picks for established players. They'll trade them for other first-round picks and guys they can draft that year (i.e. Trubisky, Watson, Mahomes)

So Dalton's "value" isn't really that high, IMO. It'd be like for a second-rounder and maybe more with another third, or maybe another second in a following year. It's really interesting. NFL players are like cars - depreciate immediately once driven past a certain point.

@jakeypoo - I don't get the Bengals on their evaluation of Eifert .

They like him a lot. If Eifert didn't get hurt in the Pro Bowl or didn't hurt his back after coming back, he probably would already be under a long-term deal. Coming to terms on a deal is a two-way street. They could offer him a deal with 46-man roster bonus protections i.e. Burfict, but it's up to Eifert to take that. And "injury prone" isn't just something to throw away here. He's played 10 games in two years. It's beyond that.

@rfaulk34 - thread on Katie
I actually jumped in on that one.

@XenoMorph - this upcoming draft leaning towards Offense/Defense or a pretty even split.

Hard to say. I mean, they'll probably look for multiple OL, TE, QB and RB on offense; DT, DE, LB, S (and maybe corner) on defense. I mean, with 12 picks, it could be 7-5 to one side of the ball…but I don't think they rate their board by offense/defense. "Need" is usually just used as a tiebreaker.

@fredtoast @ SunsetBengal- Bodine

Since I was the one who got quote from Marvin about him wanting Bodine back, I can say that I was a little surprised with how strongly he fell in that camp. I know Bodine was a Paul A. favorite, so it was interesting to me to hear Marvin so firmly in that camp as wel . I think Bengals.com talked to Pollack and he said he liked him. Soo…it may depend on how much Bodine is looking for. He will be desirable, IMO. It could be a 60-40 to re-signing him at this point, if he isn't pricing himself out. As for an "economical contract" - the Bengals view centers like guards - they'll pay what they feel is fair, but they're not setting a new market (i.e. Zeitler) for an interior lineman. What that is for a center, I dunno.

.....and it will continue to be their downfall/achilles heel.  It's stupid.

[jowczarski]

How hilarious is that I answered the Dalton trade value and then Alex Smith is dealt for a 2, 3 and a starting corner. So, I stand by my thought that two 2s and a three would be the market value.

[jowczarski]

If anyone is bored, hop over to my Facbook page for an impromptu Q&A - http://bit.ly/2hbK1Rs (Like it anyway! :-D)

[Joelist]

The scariest part of that Q&A is the idea that they stick with Bodine - the worst Center in football.